Cease To Padres per Passan

[Bob Sacamano]

6 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

It’s about fit. Ortiz will be 28-29 by the time Sox are ready to win. I’d much prefer the Padres package 

Sox will have the top pick! 

Thats good to know I guess haha

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 hours ago, Rolle Tide said:

In his last 5 starts …he has 3 starts … 4 2/3, 3 2/3, 3 2/3 …giving up 4, 6, and 7 runs. I’m not excited.

So now we're looking at a starters last three starts? Got it.

[hi8is]

3 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Which is why Crochet to the Orioles is extremely unlikely to happen. 

You’d think if there’s ever a time to loosen up the purse strings, it’s now. I respect Elias but he’s got to let go of some prospects.

That team really is in the cusp of becoming a dynasty. With new ownership primed to spend big, a stocked system, and a huge young core of talent - if they make the right moves that team will be the pride of baseball for years and years to come.

However, if Elias doesn’t pony up then they’ll likely continue seeing first round playoff exits.

Will it hurt for them to give up a couple of their top prospects… no… it won’t. You get your team over the edge into a tier of greatness for years to come. Past the headline shock to their most loyal fans, there won’t be any pain.

There’s my BaltimoreTalk thesis and with it, I quit.

[46DidIt]

1 hour ago, Rolle Tide said:

Underwhelming? So far “Nicky Ortiz” is better than anything you got in the Cease trade.

You’re telling me you’d give up Thorpe, Iriarte, Zavala and Wilson for Ortiz??

 

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

You thinking/hoping the Orioles give up their top prospects for Crochet or Fedde isn’t going to will it into existence.  We have already seen this song and dance with Elias.

No s%*#. My point is, it makes more sense now than ever to pull the trigger on a TOR arm, so the fact the O’s pulled off a better deal for Burnes and that they declined to meet the demand on Cease is irrelevant to the question of whether they will or should meet the price here. Maybe they do or maybe they don’t. But it makes more sense now due to the fact they have all the positional talent converging at the same time they’re in legit position to win a WS or two over the next three years. Either way, no way I trade Crochet without either one of their current top three prospects or one of Westburg or Cowser. It’s ludicrous to suggest the Sox should take any less when he’s clearly a guy you’d want on the hump in a WS game. I guess the O’s could try to sign a FA for 350 million or something instead

[Rolle Tide]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

My point is that there is a clear second or third tier to their prospects, even if the hype makes them all seem elite. I think they’ll move a guy that has warts that fans overlook because of name value. 

Every organization has them, there are only so many elite prospects. I agree with @WhiteSox2023…. I don’t expect them to deal any of their top 4. 

[Rolle Tide]

55 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So now we're looking at a starters last three starts? Got it.

Read much …. It was his last 5.

[caulfield12]

Orioles need some balance to their rotation being too RHP-heavy.

Irvin to the bullpen, Povich struggling mightily, Means obviously injured.

Not a lot of balance there.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Every organization has them, there are only so many elite prospects. I agree with @WhiteSox2023…. I don’t expect them to deal any of their top 4. 

Except Mayo and Basallo would be worth MORE to other teams than BALT, as neither one of those guys are going to be able to play their natural defensive positions.

 

[Rolle Tide]

21 minutes ago, 4OCS said:

You’re telling me you’d give up Thorpe, Iriarte, Zavala and Wilson for Ortiz??

 

No s%*#. My point is, it makes more sense now than ever to pull the trigger on a TOR arm, so the fact the O’s pulled off a better deal for Burnes and that they declined to meet the demand on Cease is irrelevant to the question of whether they will or should meet the price here. Maybe they do or maybe they don’t. But it makes more sense now due to the fact they have all the positional talent converging at the same time they’re in legit position to win a WS or two over the next three years. Either way, no way I trade Crochet without either one of their current top three prospects or one of Westburg or Cowser. It’s ludicrous to suggest the Sox should take any less when he’s clearly a guy you’d want on the hump in a WS game. I guess the O’s could try to sign a FA for 350 million or something instead

I said more valuable…Ortiz is on pace to be a 4 WAR player. Thorpe gives you reason to be optimistic. He makes the deal for Cease a win for you guys. I don’t care about Wilson! He’s a relief pitcher and they are a dime a dozen. As for Iriarte and Zavala they are both struggling at AA. Hall has not been good so far for the Brewers. I think the main reason is they insist on starting him. The Orioles didn’t get anything from him starting. Imo …he has to good pitches he can control. So he did well as a reliever but seems to lack command as a starter. 

[Rolle Tide]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Except Mayo and Basallo would be worth MORE to other teams than BALT, as neither one of those guys are going to be able to play their natural defensive positions.

 

Mayo is the starting 3B or 1B next year. How is that more valuable to other teams? I’d personally deal Basallo but he’d be a platoon with Adley that allows him less wear and tear. They could also DH when not starting. McCann has played 39 games so far so it’s not like Adley is catching everyday. 

[Rolle Tide]

34 minutes ago, 4OCS said:

You’re telling me you’d give up Thorpe, Iriarte, Zavala and Wilson for Ortiz??

 

No s%*#. My point is, it makes more sense now than ever to pull the trigger on a TOR arm, so the fact the O’s pulled off a better deal for Burnes and that they declined to meet the demand on Cease is irrelevant to the question of whether they will or should meet the price here. Maybe they do or maybe they don’t. But it makes more sense now due to the fact they have all the positional talent converging at the same time they’re in legit position to win a WS or two over the next three years. Either way, no way I trade Crochet without either one of their current top three prospects or one of Westburg or Cowser. It’s ludicrous to suggest the Sox should take any less when he’s clearly a guy you’d want on the hump in a WS game. I guess the O’s could try to sign a FA for 350 million or something instead

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the White Sox should give Crochet away. The concern by O’s fans are the limited availability and injury risk. There is no sense for us to argue the merits of that as it’s been discussed at nausea. The Yankees said no to top100 (#74) Spencer Jones. So it’s reasonable to wonder why he’d be worth one of the #2 , #9,  or #15 prospects. I don’t see Elias trading Westburg but I wonder if he’d deal Cowser.

[Chicago White Sox]

35 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Every organization has them, there are only so many elite prospects. I agree with @WhiteSox2023…. I don’t expect them to deal any of their top 4. 

Your system falls off massively after the top 4.  Not suggesting it’s bad, but there is a massive gap between Kjerstad and whoever #5 is.

[Chicago White Sox]

29 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

I said more valuable…Ortiz is on pace to be a 4 WAR player. Thorpe gives you reason to be optimistic. He makes the deal for Cease a win for you guys. I don’t care about Wilson! He’s a relief pitcher and they are a dime a dozen. As for Iriarte and Zavala they are both struggling at AA. Hall has not been good so far for the Brewers. I think the main reason is they insist on starting him. The Orioles didn’t get anything from him starting. Imo …he has to good pitches he can control. So he did well as a reliever but seems to lack command as a starter. 

Zavala’s wRC+ is higher than Bradfield’s despite being three years younger at the same level, but haven’t heard you say he is struggling…

[Nardiwashere]

lol these Baltimore guys are so weird.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Your system falls off massively after the top 4.  Not suggesting it’s bad, but there is a massive gap between Kjerstad and whoever #5 is.

Kjerstad isn’t even a prospect any more (per mlb pipeline at least he’s no longer listed). Other top 10 guys like McDermott and Johnson are aging out too. Norby will next year as well. These guys are losing value the longer the orioles hold onto them.

[WhiteSox2023]

12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Kjerstad isn’t even a prospect any more (per mlb pipeline at least he’s no longer listed). Other top 10 guys like McDermott and Johnson are aging out too. Norby will next year as well. These guys are losing value the longer the orioles hold onto them.

I believe the rookie/prospect cutoff is 130 major league at bats for MLB and Baseball America.  Kjerstad has 74 at bats over the past two seasons.  I doubt Kjerstad has lost much value with the way he is currently hitting in the majors.

Edited July 9 by WhiteSox2023

[46DidIt]

3 hours ago, Rolle Tide said:

I said more valuable…Ortiz is on pace to be a 4 WAR player. Thorpe gives you reason to be optimistic. He makes the deal for Cease a win for you guys. I don’t care about Wilson! He’s a relief pitcher and they are a dime a dozen. As for Iriarte and Zavala they are both struggling at AA. Hall has not been good so far for the Brewers. I think the main reason is they insist on starting him. The Orioles didn’t get anything from him starting. Imo …he has to good pitches he can control. So he did well as a reliever but seems to lack command as a starter. 

You didn’t answer the question

[46DidIt]

3 hours ago, Rolle Tide said:

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the  The Yankees said no to top100 (#74) Spencer Jones. So it’s reasonable to wonder why he’d be worth one of the #2 , #9,  or #15 prospects. I don’t see Elias trading Westburg but I wonder if he’d deal Cowser.

There’s still three weeks until the trade deadline, not sure how you have concluded the Yankees have said no. If they actually want Crochet, they would obviously be aware Crochet is more valuable than Jones.
 

At any rate, the O’s can’t match the Yankees pitching depth as is, even if the Yanks don’t trade for Crochet. You seem to be leaving level of need out of the equation. It isn’t the Sox or the Yanks who have the immediate and near term need to match the level of their competition in terms of starting pitching. The yanks already have five guys you wouldn’t mind starting in a playoff game. After Burnes and Grayson the O’s clearly don’t match up as is

[Rolle Tide]

6 hours ago, Nardiwashere said:

lol these Baltimore guys are so weird.

Nice contribution 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I believe the rookie/prospect cutoff is 130 major league at bats for MLB and Baseball America.  Kjerstad has 74 at bats over the past two seasons.  I doubt Kjerstad has lost much value with the way he is currently hitting in the majors.

For many rebuilding teams like the Sox that are years from contending, acquiring players that are getting older (already in their mid 20s or approaching their late 20s) and/or gaining mlb service time certainly diminishes their appeal/value in a trade. For example, I’m sure the Sox would prefer Coby Mayo over Kjerstad even if Kjerstad proves he can hold his own against MLB pitching in a SSS and Mayo hasn’t.

[Rolle Tide]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Zavala’s wRC+ is higher than Bradfield’s despite being three years younger at the same level, but haven’t heard you say he is struggling…

So I was discussing the trade pieces. Bradfield wasn’t one of those so why would you feel I failed to mention him? 

[Rolle Tide]

5 hours ago, 4OCS said:

You didn’t answer the question

Whether I’d trade Ortiz for the Cease return is irrelevant. At this point you have Thorpe who is doing good as a starter and a relief pitcher that is more valuable to your team as trade bait. The two minor league guys could end up being nothing and as I mentioned are struggling at AA. It will take a while to see if they get anything more from that deal. If if he wasn’t a fit for the White Sox Ortiz already has 2+ WAR in half a season. 

[Chicago White Sox]

52 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

So I was discussing the trade pieces. Bradfield wasn’t one of those so why would you feel I failed to mention him? 

Because you just referred to Bradfield as a 50 FV prospect on your board when proposing he be a big part of an offer for Crochet + Robert, but then ripped Zavala for struggling with the bat and implying he’s not all that valuable at the moment as a result.  Zavala is three years younger than Bradfield and has been more productive than Bradfield with the bat.  Is it fair to say Bradfield’s value is down then?

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Because you just referred to Bradfield as a 50 FV prospect on your board when proposing he be a big part of an offer for Crochet + Robert, but then ripped Zavala for struggling with the bat and implying he’s not all that valuable at the moment as a result.  Zavala is three years younger than Bradfield and has been more productive than Bradfield with the bat.  Is it fair to say Bradfield’s value is down then?

Nah.

[WhiteSox2023]

4 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

For many rebuilding teams like the Sox that are years from contending, acquiring players that are getting older (already in their mid 20s or approaching their late 20s) and/or gaining mlb service time certainly diminishes their appeal/value in a trade. For example, I’m sure the Sox would prefer Coby Mayo over Kjerstad even if Kjerstad proves he can hold his own against MLB pitching in a SSS and Mayo hasn’t.

Agreed, I think the Sox would rather have younger prospects.  I was just saying that Kierstad still has a lot of value, just less to the Sox with where they are at in their rebuild (i.e., not even close to competing IMO).

Edited July 9 by WhiteSox2023