Cease To Padres per Passan

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

7 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The question is how much prospect capital a team is willing to use vs. money. This cost the dodgers both but most teams aren't going to do that. 

Baltimore is interesting that they have such a low budget that they need to keep prospects to be competitive in the future. But don't have quite enough to put them over the top yet. 

I am surprised they had to give up Pepiot to get him honestly.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I dont mind trading with MIN so long as Julien the young LHS is part of the package. 

Julien is a future (and current) DH.  Pass. 

[ChiSox59]

17 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

5/135 for Glasnow and his career high 120 IP at age 30…how is Cease at 2/18-20(ish) not worth a king’s ransom? 

He is. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Julien is a future (and current) DH.  Pass. 

He's going to be a monster offensively.

[ChiSox59]

6 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

He's going to be a monster offensively.

Perhaps.  I need to see more.  But he's a DH.  He's literally awful at 2B.  

[fathom]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Perhaps.  I need to see more.  But he's a DH.  He's literally awful at 2B.  

Strictly platoon also, right?

[SoCalChiSox]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Perhaps.  I need to see more.  But he's a DH.  He's literally awful at 2B.  

So what? We need a DH too after Eloy is gone 

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

So what? We need a DH too after Eloy is gone 

I'd prefer we acquire more well rounded players with our one legitimate trade chip.  

[SoCalChiSox]

8 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I'd prefer we acquire more well rounded players with our one legitimate trade chip.  

I didn't say he should be the whole compensation, just part of it...same thing with Busch. 

If we're getting one SP, one legit position player and one savage bat only i don't think people will complain about the fact that one guy is bat only if the bat is savage worthy.

Edited December 15, 2023 by SoCalChiSox

[fathom]

1 minute ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I didn't say he should be the whole compensation, just part of it...same thing with Busch. 

If we're getting one SP, one legit position player and one savage bat only i don't think people will complain about the fact that one guy is bat only if the bat is savage worthy.

He’d be the prize part of the Twins package 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I prefer them much more than the Braves.

They are always all hype. The yankees always tend to keep the ones that matter and discard the trash.

A NYY prospect that is moderately strong offensively in single A will catapault to the top 100 immediately and stay there for 4 years despite rarely growing and still end up finding their way in a trade for a starting pitcher.

[MiddleCoastBias]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

They are always all hype. The yankees always tend to keep the ones that matter and discard the trash.

A NYY prospect that is moderately strong offensively in single A will catapault to the top 100 immediately and stay there for 4 years despite rarely growing and still end up finding their way in a trade for a starting pitcher.

See: Blake Rutherford.

A week or two back I defended a Volpe/Dominguez trade prop, but then promptly remembered the Blake trade and how their prospects tarnish quickly.

[Snowy Demon]

1 hour ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

5/135 for Glasnow and his career high 120 IP at age 30…how is Cease at 2/18-20(ish) not worth a king’s ransom? 

Probably not a good comparison with 5 year extension.  More comparable case would be Corbin Burnes if he agrees to 5 year extension.  Not likely with Boras representing Burnes.  

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

See: Blake Rutherford.

A week or two back I defended a Volpe/Dominguez trade prop, but then promptly remembered the Blake trade and how their prospects tarnish quickly.

I mean think about how long Jorge Mateo was a guy on people's radars. Or how Estevan Florial just skyrocketed based off of some power. There's guys like that in every system but they are an impossible org to follow as a fan because you never know what to trust.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d love to see people rank these three trade proposals:

• Orioles: Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Horvath
• Dodgers: Busch, Sheehan, & Pages
• Braves: AJ S-S, Waldrep, & Grissom

Personally, I’d rank them in the listed order, but all three are deals I’d be willing to accept (ideally with some lesser 4th piece included).  Meanwhile, BBTV would rank the Dodgers package as the highest ($66M in SV), followed by the Braves package ($56M), and then the Orioles in a distant third ($32M).  BBTV has Kjerstad at only $16M in value as I’d personally rank him as a low-end 55 FV guy and put his expected value closer to $40M.  Regardless, it’s a good reminder that BBTV is a fun tool, but its player valuations are highly suspect and never assume a trade will or will not work based on what it spits out.

I loved your analysis. Very well thought out. Extremely basebally and gutsy. I'll always give you a lot of credit for putting yourself out there.

Evaluating prospects is difficult. Rankings sometimes means very little like with Busch. He's still rated as of one the top 2 Dodger prospects at 26 yrs old and without a glove only because of his bat. The Dodgers have absolutely no use for a player like that. Look at the guys they turned from nothings into somethings.

Outman, Justin Turner, Max Muncy. The one thing they all have in common is that they all can play the field and fairly well . If you can play the field ,hit HR's and walk the Dodgers like your potential. They don't care about K rate if the other 3 are solid. And that's worked for them. I also think think being LH is very important to them. It's easier to fix those guys. LH's are ideal strong side platoon guys when you get to face opposite handed pitchers a lot more than RH hitters, Muncy and Outman can all play multiple position. Outman all 3 OF positions and Muncy 3 infield positions.

I think it's very important that the Sox come away with a strong fielding LH position player , maybe even 2 of them. That Dodger package doesn't have that. I like Pages but he's RH and coming off a tore labrum.

 Pitchers are even harder to evaluate. Sheehan hasn't had many minor league innings. I think he's ready to pitch 125 innings this year based on his total of 122 last year but I wouldn't push him to go above that Inning total from last year given it was his 1st time pitching that many innings.  Ideally you want to see an innings increase but maybe its best with SP to get the arm used to a certain amount of innings rather than continually pushing it higher . 2 straight years of 125 and then an increase. I don't know if any teams currently handle SP prospects that way so it's my own personal recommendation. Teams havent exactly figured out how to prevent TJS so maybe they are pushing them too hard too fast.

I'd rather get a pitcher, with all other things being semi equal, a guy who has a few years in a row with a better minor league track record involving IP and durability. I'd have to do a deeper dive on the multiple mid 20's Dodgers guys to see who fits that bill. Gavin Stone looks ready to pitch more innings. He's smallish as a pitcher and he didn't impress in his call up last year. His fastball can go 98 but doesnt miss bats with it as much as he could.

SO evaluating pitchers is really hard. So much can change from year to year. Add a pitch, better control, better command that changes everything. With all that in mind as I said I'll take the innings and durability among a bunch of mid 20's guys.

Baltimore has a lot of LH prospects. I'd definitely prefer them as a trading partner.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

They are always all hype. The yankees always tend to keep the ones that matter and discard the trash.

A NYY prospect that is moderately strong offensively in single A will catapault to the top 100 immediately and stay there for 4 years despite rarely growing and still end up finding their way in a trade for a starting pitcher.

For sure.  That's the same with Cubs and Dodgers guys i've found out. Really the huge market teams

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

The question is how much prospect capital a team is willing to use vs. money. This cost the dodgers both but most teams aren't going to do that. 

Baltimore is interesting that they have such a low budget that they need to keep prospects to be competitive in the future. But don't have quite enough to put them over the top yet. 

Yep Baltimore will be trading Santander, Mullins and Hays son so their young OF prospects can step right in.

Santander needs to go asap. Does Holiday jump right in to replace him or does Kjerstad or Cowser.

I don't see many here suggesting LH OF Dylan Beavers as a potential trade candidate. He's considered a 5 tool guy.

Id be happy to take him if Kjerstad and Cowser are next in line for the O's outfield. I'd consider Beavers a pretty good headliner. And who wouldn't love a prospect named Beavers ?

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Yep Baltimore will be trading Santander, Mullins and Hays son so their young OF prospects can step right in.

Santander needs to go asap. Does Holiday jump right in to replace him or does Kjerstad or Cowser.

I don't see many here suggesting LH OF Dylan Beavers as a potential trade candidate. He's considered a 5 tool guy.

Id be happy to take him if Kjerstad and Cowser are next in line for the O's outfield. I'd consider Beavers a pretty good headliner. And who wouldn't love a prospect named Beavers ?

If Beavers is anything more than the 3rd piece, I hold Cease.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

32 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

If Beavers is anything more than the 3rd piece, I hold Cease.

What's wrong with Beavers? He's 22 LH CF with a good eye, nice arm. If he doesnt stick in CF he can play RF. He might be a year away so maybe you can get a final look at Colas in 2024 if the Sox ever think he can make some strides. Or they can trade Colas. 55 overall scouting grade same as Kjerstad and 2 years younger. Cowser is a 60 and 23.

Turning up your nose at a guy like Beavers tells me your expectations from Baltimore are misplaced.

Hold Cease for what exactly ? Till the All Star break ? Too risky.

Who exactly do you think the Sox are going to get that would beat a strong Orioles package of LH's and a pitcher .

Ortiz, Beavers and Hall would be a pretty strong package. That's 2 up the middle guys and their best pitching prospect besides Rodriguez .

Edited December 15, 2023 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

I mean think about how long Jorge Mateo was a guy on people's radars. Or how Estevan Florial just skyrocketed based off of some power. There's guys like that in every system but they are an impossible org to follow as a fan because you never know what to trust.

Andujar as well.

[Quin]

3 hours ago, Snowy Demon said:

The Padres are looking to further reduce payroll.  They will want younger players instead of arbitration eligible players. 

Cease, and to an extent Eloy, are cheap for right now. Preller can't afford another losing season after all the wild spending and lofty expectations.

1 hour ago, bmags said:

They are always all hype. The yankees always tend to keep the ones that matter and discard the trash.

A NYY prospect that is moderately strong offensively in single A will catapault to the top 100 immediately and stay there for 4 years despite rarely growing and still end up finding their way in a trade for a starting pitcher.

Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar sounds reasonable for Cease.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

Cease, and to an extent Eloy, are cheap for right now. Preller can't afford another losing season after all the wild spending and lofty expectations.

Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar sounds reasonable for Cease.

82-80 technically.

Cease fits...but they won't trade Salas or Merrill, and will be really judicious about which of their five young pitchers they are willing to part with.

They will only deal those top line names for being able to move Cronenworth off the roster...or maybe even Bogaerts.

(JR ofc isn't the type to assume that type of risk after the Moncada and Alex Rios Experiences.)

[Boopa1219]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d love to see people rank these three trade proposals:

• Orioles: Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Horvath
• Dodgers: Busch, Sheehan, & Pages
• Braves: AJ S-S, Waldrep, & Grissom

Personally, I’d rank them in the listed order, but all three are deals I’d be willing to accept (ideally with some lesser 4th piece included).  Meanwhile, BBTV would rank the Dodgers package as the highest ($66M in SV), followed by the Braves package ($56M), and then the Orioles in a distant third ($32M).  BBTV has Kjerstad at only $16M in value as I’d personally rank him as a low-end 55 FV guy and put his expected value closer to $40M.  Regardless, it’s a good reminder that BBTV is a fun tool, but its player valuations are highly suspect and never assume a trade will or will not work based on what it spits out.

I think all three are bad returns. 

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, Boopa1219 said:

I think all three are bad returns. 

Why do you think that?  Care to elaborate?

[Bob Sacamano]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Why do you think that?  Care to elaborate?

I feel like you’re getting 3 top 100 prospects in 2 of those deals basically so definitely interesting, ha.