Cease To Padres per Passan

[fathom]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Just because one person said there is a flaw doesn't mean there is. With the varied philosophies of mechanics there are probably 19 others who would disagree with said flaw. 

I’ve heard this from a few reputable reporters this offseason 

[Tnetennba]

3 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I’m not arguing any of that. I listed him 1st only because he was the only major leaguer in the deal. The hypothetical deal I posted was 5 of the Reds top 10 prospects….plus India thrown in as a roll of the dice gamble that he could figure it out with a change of scenery. If the Reds value India too much then take him out of the deal, no problem. 

I am not so up to speed on their system so I am less familiar with those names, I'm just vehemently opposed to acquiring India for anything more than a song. I also just have a hard time seeing Cincy including him and not using him in an attempt reduce the prospect capital they send out. Trading for 5 of their top prospects is an entirely different story.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

A broken down Bieber is not Dylan Cease.

That isn't the question though. The question is whether that's more a deal that would work for both teams, as that would at least satisfy some of Baltimore's pitching need at a cost it was more willing to pay.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, fathom said:

I’ve heard this from a few reputable reporters this offseason 

I mean, go look at his extension numbers.  I’m no pitching expert, but it’s very clear something changed mechanically.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

I am not so up to speed on their system so I am less familiar with those names, I'm just vehemently opposed to acquiring India for anything more than a song. I also just have a hard time seeing Cincy including him and not using him in an attempt reduce the prospect capital they send out. Trading for 5 of their top prospects is an entirely different story.

Still think India makes the most sense to Toronto since they have holes at 2B and 3B.

[poppysox]

4 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

This isn’t true at all. I’d bet the majority of the return reaches the majors in 2024 

Agreed...those teams have a blocked right fielder are super high on the list.   

[SoCalChiSox]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Then if you believe that, hold onto Cease for a couple months and let him prove it. If he's top 3 in the Cy Young race at the deadline, or even in June, you're going to get the type of bidding war and elite returns people are angry that we're not getting now. Take away the reason for Baltimore's GM to hesitate.

But Balta the market doesn't operate in the abstract.

When someone says worth it...its not in a vacuum. 

If there's like 1-2 guys out there that are elite and totally unattainable for 90% of the league and then 4 guys who are somwhere between pretty good and abovr average but have some issue and there's a dozen teams that really really need SP and are actively trying to win, then someone necessarily will pay a diamond's price for a sapphire because that's how markets work.

There's no vacuum. Do you agree that supply of cost controlled decent to quality SP on the trade market is slim?

If so, then why wouldn't demand respond in kind?

There's no such thing as worth it or not worth it divorced from that.

And BTW, you were wrong on Glasnow. He fetched a Top 100 equivalent + another useful piece and the Rays forced LAD to ALSO eat a bad contract too. And no, the LAD getting an extension out of it doesn't make it distinguishable. Very few people think Glasnows deal adds SV at that price. 

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

I’ve heard this from a few reputable reporters this offseason 

But from a single source? 

Or multiple pitching coaches? 

The media tends to run with a story. 

Edited December 22, 2023 by ptatc

[WestEddy]

40 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Why would you be so against taking a shot on a change of scenery scenario for India? Crazier things have happened. He doesn’t cost anything salary wise and is far from the highlight of the deal. Just a throw in gamble. 

I'm guessing Cincinnati doesn't see India as a "change of scenery" candidate. A deal for Cease would have to be all prospects, lest Cin starts pretending India's an All-Star. 

[WestEddy]

40 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The number of times I say "I would need to see Cease get back to his 2022 form before I'd trade for him" while people ignore it and insist I've said he will never rebound still is amazing to me.

If Cease's 2023 mirrored his 2022, we'd be talking about an even bigger haul. Cease has an absolute range of value. Other teams bank on their staff being able to keep him in the upper part of that range, while the lower part is still an above average major league pitcher. 

[Balta1701]

20 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

But Balta the market doesn't operate in the abstract.

When someone says worth it...its not in a vacuum. 

If there's like 1-2 guys out there that are elite and totally unattainable for 90% of the league and then 4 guys who are somwhere between pretty good and abovr average but have some issue and there's a dozen teams that really really need SP and are actively trying to win, then someone necessarily will pay a diamond's price for a sapphire because that's how markets work.

There's no vacuum. Do you agree that supply of cost controlled decent to quality SP on the trade market is slim?

If so, then why wouldn't demand respond in kind?

There's no such thing as worth it or not worth it divorced from that.

And BTW, you were wrong on Glasnow. He fetched a Top 100 equivalent + another useful piece and the Rays forced LAD to ALSO eat a bad contract too. And no, the LAD getting an extension out of it doesn't make it distinguishable. Very few people think Glasnows deal adds SV at that price. 

Or the other option still is possible - that none of them will pay this diamond price, and they will fill their needs as well as they can with the pieces that are available. This is precisely what happened at the trade deadline with Cease last year, no team was willing to pay the kind of asking price the White Sox wanted. This is also what has happened through the full offseason so far.

[Dick Allen]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Or the other option still is possible - that none of them will pay this diamond price, and they will fill their needs as well as they can with the pieces that are available. This is precisely what happened at the trade deadline with Cease last year, no team was willing to pay the kind of asking price the White Sox wanted. This is also what has happened through the full offseason so far.

There is a new decision maker now. Do you know for sure the Sox were truly dangling Cease at the deadline, or were just saying sure, meet this ridiculous price and he’s yours? I think before Getz was hired, the White Sox front office didn’t think they had to rebuild. And if not being traded yet this offseason is a definite sign, there are a ton of players and teams in so,e deep s%*#.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

There is a new decision maker now. Do you know for sure the Sox were truly dangling Cease at the deadline, or were just saying sure, meet this ridiculous price and he’s yours? I think before Getz was hired, the White Sox front office didn’t think they had to rebuild. And if not being traded yet this offseason is a definite sign, there are a ton of players and teams in so,e deep s%*#.

But the bolded is what you folks have been expecting consistently in this thread and telling me will happen this time.

[SoCalChiSox]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Or the other option still is possible - that none of them will pay this diamond price, and they will fill their needs as well as they can with the pieces that are available. This is precisely what happened at the trade deadline with Cease last year, no team was willing to pay the kind of asking price the White Sox wanted. This is also what has happened through the full offseason so far.

We don't know what they asked for at the deadline tho. If they were asking for Holliday then yeah that wasn't going to happen. But we don't know the prior ask and it was a prior FO.

But macsandz reported the current ask is Cowser and Norby plus something else. I do not know what the something else is but I'm operating on the assumption it's a non Top 100 piece. Since Getz has an unhealthy obsession with pitching let's assume it's Povich. 

This is not a diamond price. Its an elevated price but imo well within what the market should bear in a sellers market, one top 50, one bottom 50 and something else that's useful. 

It's a price that doesn't ask BAL to give up any of their top 3 studs and they are more than fine in the OF. 

When you say "it's what has happened in the offseason so far" I think you are again assuming everything is static. As supply dwindles and people see what outrageous prices there are (cash wise or prospect wise) for pitching then resistance will buckle because there's alot of people trying to win but not alot of pitching.

I dont think we can infer the lack of deal to date means we overestimated the market, I think the lack of deal means Getz is willing to wait until supply completely thins out to force people to act.

It doesn't have to be BAL, but I'm confident someone will act. 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But the bolded is what you folks have been expecting consistently in this thread and telling me will happen this time.

No one here is expecting Jackson Holiday and the rumor is that’s what Hahn was asking for as the starting point at the deadline.

[Dick Allen]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But the bolded is what you folks have been expecting consistently in this thread and telling me will happen this time.

I don’t think so. What were they asking for at the deadline? If you’re so sure about it, you must have examples. I don’t understand why asking for too much is a bad thing. You can always negotiate down. And if it is not imperative he be traded, you wait. All it takes is one.   As awful as you say he is he put up a 3.7 fWAR which was only .7 short of his 2022. 
 

These are all things you would point out if it was the other way around and the Sox were trying to trade for Cease. You would tell us he is going to cost an arm and a leg.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Dick Allen

[WestEddy]

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

This is precisely what happened at the trade deadline with Cease last year, no team was willing to pay the kind of asking price the White Sox wanted. This is also what has happened through the full offseason so far.

Not if you believe the press leaks. It has been said repeatedly that the Sox will wait for the few major free agents to come off the board until they begin to seriously consider offers. 

We can also surmise that the delay is because teams just keep bidding higher and higher.

[Dick Allen]

Tyler Glasgow has never put up an fWAR as high as Cease did in 2023 and the contractual obligation isn’t close.

[ptatc]

17 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

We don't know what they asked for at the deadline tho. If they were asking for Holliday then yeah that wasn't going to happen. But we don't know the prior ask and it was a prior FO.

But macsandz reported the current ask is Cowser and Norby plus something else. I do not know what the something else is but I'm operating on the assumption it's a non Top 100 piece. Since Getz has an unhealthy obsession with pitching let's assume it's Povich. 

This is not a diamond price. Its an elevated price but imo well within what the market should bear in a sellers market, one top 50, one bottom 50 and something else that's useful. 

It's a price that doesn't ask BAL to give up any of their top 3 studs and they are more than fine in the OF. 

When you say "it's what has happened in the offseason so far" I think you are again assuming everything is static. As supply dwindles and people see what outrageous prices there are (cash wise or prospect wise) for pitching then resistance will buckle because there's alot of people trying to win but not alot of pitching.

I dont think we can infer the lack of deal to date means we overestimated the market, I think the lack of deal means Getz is willing to wait until supply completely thins out to force people to act.

It doesn't have to be BAL, but I'm confident someone will act. 

There is such such thing as an unhealthy obsession with pitching in baseball. 

Just look at the injury rates. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, SoCalChiSox said:

If quality SP at a cheap price is what they seek they aren't going to get anything in the same zip code and maybe not even in the same Milky Way as Dylan Cease by trading Santander and Hays.

Why would someone give up a quality pitcher controlled for multiple years for a  person estimated to be paid around 12-13m this year in arbitration for barely over 2 WAR by fangraphs projection and who is only controlled one year? The salary alone basically almost wipes out any value. 

Hays will be making less than that but he's not expected to even be a 2 WAR player next year.

No one will give up anything meaningful in the pitching market to get stuck paying money for these guys. 

But they are free to try. 

There are teams out there close enough to contention that a good OF with 2 years left before FA plus a top blocked prospect with a lesser one might be enough pry away pitching from a team like Seattle.

 A guy like Bryce Miller may be as good as Cease in 2024 and way beyond just 2 years. There's a lot more ways for Baltimore than there is for the Sox to invest their talent wisely.

For the Sox it's trade Cease and Robert before either one of them turns back into a pumpkin for as much as you can get. That's it. That's our only hope to even start to think about injecting some hope into this franchise and even then JR is still in charge with a FO that we don't yet have a handle on .

[hi8is]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

I tried to get the word filter to swap Tatis for Voldermort, so don't get your hopes up.

It’s hysterical… when I started calling him He Who Shall Not Be Named… I had never read a single Harry Potter line in my life.

Over the last year I’ve read all 7 now to my son. Hysterical.

[SoCalChiSox]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

There is such such thing as an unhealthy obsession with pitching in baseball. 

Just look at the injury rates. 

It's unhealthy because getting the 7th pitcher shouldn't be higher on the priority list than getting the 1st or 2nd positional player. 

When you've added 6 pitchers already and presumably paid through the nose to pry a pitching guru away from a respected team, some us would like to think that it's high time the utter lack of savagery is addressed.

[WestEddy]

32 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

It's unhealthy because getting the 7th pitcher shouldn't be higher on the priority list than getting the 1st or 2nd positional player. 

Why is everyone assuming that you can't trade pitching prospects for positional prospects? If one team is offering 3-60 grade prospects and they're pitchers, I'd take that over 1-55 grade and 2-50 grade positional players. 

[ptatc]

51 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

It's unhealthy because getting the 7th pitcher shouldn't be higher on the priority list than getting the 1st or 2nd positional player. 

When you've added 6 pitchers already and presumably paid through the nose to pry a pitching guru away from a respected team, some us would like to think that it's high time the utter lack of savagery is addressed.

I would agree and would doubt that is his intention either. 

I think the reports we've heard is he is focusing on pitching. If the number one prospects they get in the trade is not as good as the ones theyve acquired it would be gross negligence. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

If Wyatt Langford were to be on the table from the Rangers could he possibly be the best available option and almost force Getz to take a lesser total/quantity package? 
 

Would you do- Wyatt Langford, Brock Porter, Josh Stephan and Echedry Vargas for Cease?