Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs

[caulfield12]

50 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Well if that happened, then Ohtani wouldn’t want to opt out.

Well, then the Dodgers would never be able to fire their GM...at least for another decade.

[Bob Sacamano]

15 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, then the Dodgers would never be able to fire their GM...at least for another decade.

Huh? Firing the GM doesn’t trigger an opt out. It gives him the option to lol if he declines like your hypothetical, why would he opt out.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[Quin]

18 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

 

Astounding 

[caulfield12]

51 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Huh? Firing the GM doesn’t trigger an opt out. It gives him the option to lol if he declines like your hypothetical, why would he opt out.

Fine.  Then imagine the next four seasons in a row...the Dodgers flame out in the first/second round like 2022/23.

Even if Ohtani was the MVP all of those seasons...it seems like six consecutive playoff disasters would cause many in the fanbase to want a new GM...because there's an organizational failure somewhere else.

[caulfield12]

On the eve of a scheduled introductory press conference with the Dodgers to present history's first $700 million athlete, Ohtani set yet another mark -- according to Fanatics, his No. 17 Dodgers jersey set a record for sales within 48 hours of a jersey release.

https://t.co/lnwhe4z3qL

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-s-dodgers-jersey-sets-fanatics-sales-record

Edited December 14, 2023 by caulfield12

[Sleepy Harold]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

On the eve of a scheduled introductory press conference with the Dodgers to present history's first $700 million athlete, Ohtani set yet another mark -- according to Fanatics, his No. 17 Dodgers jersey set a record for sales within 48 hours of a jersey release.

https://t.co/lnwhe4z3qL

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-s-dodgers-jersey-sets-fanatics-sales-record

Gonna be a real shame when half of those jerseys arrive as Men's XL Pittsburgh Steelers pajama pants instead.

[Kyyle23]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Fine.  Then imagine the next four seasons in a row...the Dodgers flame out in the first/second round like 2022/23.

Even if Ohtani was the MVP all of those seasons...it seems like six consecutive playoff disasters would cause many in the fanbase to want a new GM...because there's an organizational failure somewhere else.

Why are you wishcasting the worst possible option when they haven’t even finished spending stupid money this offseason, or the next four offseasons if you want to match it up to your scenario.  Come on dude be real, the dodgers have done nothing but win and spend for like the last 8 years straight.  They quite literally haven’t won less than a 100 games in a full season since 2018.  lol I really don’t think Andrew Friedman is afraid of your situation coming to light 

[dohnut]

8 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Why are you wishcasting the worst possible option when they haven’t even finished spending stupid money this offseason, or the next four offseasons if you want to match it up to your scenario.  Come on dude be real, the dodgers have done nothing but win and spend for like the last 8 years straight.  They quite literally haven’t won less than a 100 games in a full season since 2018.  lol I really don’t think Andrew Friedman is afraid of your situation coming to light 

That's incredible.

And in 2018, they 'only' won 92 games. In 2017, they won 104.

I wish we had nice things.

Edited December 14, 2023 by dohnut

[Kyyle23]

16 minutes ago, dohnut said:

That's incredible.

And in 2018, they 'only' won 92 games. In 2017, they won 104.

I wish we had nice things.

They haven’t won less than 90 (excluding Covid year) since 2012 lol.  It’s absurd 

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Why are you wishcasting the worst possible option when they haven’t even finished spending stupid money this offseason, or the next four offseasons if you want to match it up to your scenario.  Come on dude be real, the dodgers have done nothing but win and spend for like the last 8 years straight.  They quite literally haven’t won less than a 100 games in a full season since 2018.  lol I really don’t think Andrew Friedman is afraid of your situation coming to light 

And 2013-2023 has guaranteed what exactly in the postseason?

If the Dodgers had four 2005 White Sox postseasons in a row…would anything change at all for Jerry Reinsdorf?

And if Friedman had some magical elixir that only worked for him and none of the other Rays executives, wouldn’t they have more than one 3/8ths of a season title (2020) played in neutral Texas in like 20+ opportunities across all those teams with former Rays’ front office execs leading them?

The issue with the Rays’ Way isn’t the postseason at all.

It’s winning the whole thing.

Even Dodgers fans would get frustrated with ownership…Roberts and Friedman if they fall short now with all the advantages in the world.

 

The Padres had one of the best ERAs in baseball last year with FOUR superstars and it only led to an 82-80 record…there’s going to be a tremendous amount of pressure on the Dodgers next year and in his first season back pitching after two UCL surgeries.  And then how would his never being able to pitch again (third tear in future) affect him psychologically?  The pressure of US and Japanese media being increased 3-4X?
 

Of course it sounds insane right now to question whether it will be a resounding success…but nobody even can project the financial state of affairs for the US and world economies ten decades from now into the future.

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

They haven’t won less than 90 (excluding Covid year) since 2012 lol.  It’s absurd 

Nobody said anything not being a winning team in the regular season.

It’s only about postseason titles at this point.

[Kyyle23]

18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Nobody said anything not being a winning team in the regular season.

It’s only about postseason titles at this point.

They have been to 3 World Series and finished in the NLCS 3 times in the last decade.  There is no other NL team that has done anything close to that.   I know you are struggling here and trying to make it a dire scenario but it’s not and they just signed quite possibly the best player on the planet and are trying to acquire more great players to go along with the team that won 100 games last season.

[Kyyle23]

Noted: Caulfield sees a Padres-esque downfall in the Dodgers future.  Clearly they have walked parallel paths up til now 

[dohnut]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Nobody said anything not being a winning team in the regular season.

It’s only about postseason titles at this point.

I'd take being in the postseason hunt every year over being basically eliminated in May. Every. Single. Time.

Edited December 14, 2023 by dohnut

[Quin]

3 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Noted: Caulfield sees a Padres-esque downfall in the Dodgers future.  Clearly they have walked parallel paths up til now 

This is why he's doomcasting them. Cause Friedman exists on another plane than Preller.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

This is why he's doomcasting them. Cause Friedman exists on another plane than Preller.

The big part of this story is that the Dodgers continue having a strong system and continue developing talent, both from their system and from guys they find elsewhere. While their big league spending certainly helps, they've also been able to just recently trade for Betts, Turner, Scherzer, and losing 2 of those guys to free agency didn't break them. 

Houston, as a contrast, has been excellent for a long time, but they're basically at the end of the line this year. They have the worst system in MLB depending on who you ask, and Altuve, Bregman, and Pressly are all free agents after this year, with Verlander, Tucker, Urquidy, and Valdez free agents after next year. They have been really good at finding some cheap pieces once their run of success started, but time has caught up to them and there's only so many of those guys they will be able to keep. The Dodgers stand out here even compared to a team that is making the LCS every year and paying the luxury tax.

[Quin]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The big part of this story is that the Dodgers continue having a strong system and continue developing talent, both from their system and from guys they find elsewhere. While their big league spending certainly helps, they've also been able to just recently trade for Betts, Turner, Scherzer, and losing 2 of those guys to free agency didn't break them. 

Houston, as a contrast, has been excellent for a long time, but they're basically at the end of the line this year. They have the worst system in MLB depending on who you ask, and Altuve, Bregman, and Pressly are all free agents after this year, with Verlander, Tucker, Urquidy, and Valdez free agents after next year. They have been really good at finding some cheap pieces once their run of success started, but time has caught up to them and there's only so many of those guys they will be able to keep. The Dodgers stand out here even compared to a team that is making the LCS every year and paying the luxury tax.

The crazy part about the Dodgers is you didn't even mention them letting Seager, Pederson, and Bellinger all walk. 

Pederson was definitely on the decline until Atlanta and Bellinger needed to get healthy, but you're framing it perfectly: Friedman has built such a continuously strong system that he's been able to trade for big names while also planning around this offseason for a long-time.

[WestEddy]

This all just seems like a floating opt-out for Ohtani. He wants to play for the Dodgers. If there's a change in ownership, the opt-out just ensures him meetings with the brass for them to pitch their vision. 

And if new ownership decides to "rebuild", they'd most probably want Ohtani to opt out, and take his deferred $68 million payments elsewhere. 

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, WestEddy said:

This all just seems like a floating opt-out for Ohtani. He wants to play for the Dodgers. If there's a change in ownership, the opt-out just ensures him meetings with the brass for them to pitch their vision. 

And if new ownership decides to "rebuild", they'd most probably want Ohtani to opt out, and take his deferred $68 million payments elsewhere. 

Have to think those deferrals will be the Dodgers alone just like the Mets with Bonilla 

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Have to think those deferrals will be the Dodgers alone just like the Mets with Bonilla 

Yeah, I was wondering how this worked. With it being a 10-year deal with 10 years of deferrals, is it maybe evenly matched? Like if he opts out after 5 years, does he only get 5 years of deferrals?

But yeah I think you're right that the Dodgers would be on the hook for those.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[WestEddy]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

Have to think those deferrals will be the Dodgers alone just like the Mets with Bonilla 

My limited understanding of the deal is if Ohtani plays 2024, he's paid $2 million, and owed $68 million from the Dodgers, payable in 2034. If he opts out next off-season, I wouldn't think he's owed $612 million (68 x 9) by the Dodgers. 

[caulfield12]

Well, the White Sox didn’t find one single 3-4ish fWAR Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, k*** Rodriguez, Outman or Justin Turner in ten years of Hahn.

The Dodgers…pre and post Friedman, have been able to come up with one of those guys on average every two seasons.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, the White Sox didn’t find one single 3-4ish fWAR Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, k*** Rodriguez, Outman or Justin Turner in ten years of Hahn.

The Dodgers…pre and post Friedman, have been able to come up with one of those guys on average every two seasons.

Outman should not be included with the other ones as he was drafted by the Dodgers and has never been in any other organization. 

[caulfield12]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Outman should not be included with the other ones as he was drafted by the Dodgers and has never been in any other organization. 

They didn’t trade him due to pressure from SoxTalk, lol.

You can add AJ Pollock to that previous list…he fooled Hahn in a similar way to Benintendi.  Heyward to a lesser extent.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

They didn’t trade him due to pressure from SoxTalk, lol.

You can add AJ Pollock to that previous list…he fooled Hahn in a similar way to Benintendi.  Heyward to a lesser extent.

AJ Pollock was acquired by the Dodgers as basically a full value free agent, this is also distinct from Taylor, Muncy, Hernandez, and Turner - all of whom were picked up by the Dodgers after some other team developed them but soured on them or gave them away while they still were pre-free-agency.

You do not need to add additional names here, those 4 are included correctly.