Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, Flash Tizzle said:

Shouldn’t we be applauding Ohtani then for taking less money to play somewhere he wanted to go? 

He's not taking less money though. Him deferring the majority of it isn't taking less, it's simply kicking the can down the road so the Dodgers build a superteam (aka win) during his contract. I personally want more competitive balance across baseball so part of me really hopes this bites them in the ass after he's done. 

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Texsox said:

You're home is valued at $400,000. Therefore you can afford a $50,000 a year landscaper. Not a perfect analogy, but close.

What number is closer to what they can spend is annual revenue. And I'm certain that shows they could spend more. 

Assuming your combined salaries are 4X your assumed mortgage payments, roughly...you always have to consider cash flow.

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, Capn12 said:

Are the Rays not capable of doing the exact same thing? Oh, they don't have the same kind of money? Well, that means its no different than any other FA signing. The haves will always do, the have nots will always complain about the haves, and the White Sox/Twins/Pirates/etc will always cry 'woe is me, we can't compete'.

 

Meanwhile, the White Sox organization is valued at 2.05 BILLION dollars.

 

Woe is us, indeed.

You’re making this about the White Sox for some reason and ignoring the fact that many small market will never have the means to sign a contract like in any capacity.  And for the millionth, franchise value has nothing to do with liquidity.

[TaylorStSox]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

How many of the playoff appearances the last 10-15 years have been Teams 1-8 or 1-10 in payroll.   Last season was a post child for "bad" spending like the Mets, Padres and Cardinals, for example.

There's definitely a correlation between payroll and playoffs...but it has never stopped the Rays, Twins, Guardians, Brewers, Orioles (now), A's (more 2000-2015ish), etc.

The Royals almost won more WS titles than Dodgers/Yankees/Mets/Angels, over the last twenty years or so.

Marlins have won two.

Giants won 3 WS titles and had the best record in baseball three seasons ago without ever having signed a huge FA deal (except for Bonds, who was internal and obviously an exceptional situation.)

The Braves have done nearly as well as the Dodgers without running one of the Top 6-8 payrolls in baseball every single season.

ETC. ETC.

 

White Sox have allocated money for 0-1 scouts over the last twenty years in the Pacific Rim.

They've allocated more than $15+ million to Leury Garcia, however.

 

The Rays are actually a great example. Probably the best baseball organization in the business that will probably never win a world series because they can't buy the players to get them over the hump.

[baseball_gal_aly]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

You’re making this about the White Sox for some reason and ignoring the fact that many small market will never have the means to sign a contract like in any capacity.  And for the millionth, franchise value has nothing to do with liquidity.

I disagree. If they want me to believe otherwise, show the books. 

I believe 30 teams could afford this contract,they just choose  not to. 

[baseball_gal_aly]

Just now, TaylorStSox said:

The Rays are actually a great example. Probably the best baseball organization in the business that will probably never win a world series because they can't buy the players to get them over the hump.

Not can't. Won't. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I disagree. If they want me to believe otherwise, show the books. 

I believe 30 teams could afford this contract,they just choose  not to. 

You are literally insane if you believe that.

[Tnetennba]

I have to imagine this loophole will be remedied in the next CBA, not that many teams are going to be willing to take such a massive hit after the contract expires.

As for competitive balance, we pay to watch the players play, not for the the owners make a massive profits. Ownership could and should pay up to make baseball more competitive, but we know that isn't reality. 

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

The Rays are actually a great example. Probably the best baseball organization in the business that will probably never win a world series because they can't buy the players to get them over the hump.

Or be able to hold onto "aces" like Glasnow who get up to $25 million per year in arbitration without anything approximating predictable availability.  (Guardians have the same issue with Bieber, Brewers with Burnes/Woodruff, etc.)

Meanwhile, the Dodgers can overcome the losses of Bauer, Urias, Buehler, Gonsolin, and Dustin May, to name a few.  Or Kershaw missing increasing chunks of the season.

Edited December 12, 2023 by caulfield12

[TaylorStSox]

1 minute ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Not can't. Won't. 

I'm sorry, but this is just stupid. A team with a valuation of $1 billion can't sign a player for $700 million. There's a real world out there.

[Capn12]

6 minutes ago, Texsox said:

You're home is valued at $400,000. Therefore you can afford a $50,000 a year landscaper. Not a perfect analogy, but close.

What number is closer to what they can spend is annual revenue. And I'm certain that shows they could spend more. 

I'm also not crying "Man I can't afford the $50k a year landscaper that my coworker with the $8 million dollar home has."

....and then all the while, stuffing hundreds of thousands of dollars into my own savings.

[Capn12]

10 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

He's not taking less money though. Him deferring the majority of it isn't taking less, it's simply kicking the can down the road so the Dodgers build a superteam (aka win) during his contract. I personally want more competitive balance across baseball so part of me really hopes this bites them in the ass after he's done. 

Technically, he IS taking less money, because that 680 million will have less value when it gets collected, and with zero interest to boot.

[Capn12]

4 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

I have to imagine this loophole will be remedied in the next CBA, not that many teams are going to be willing to take such a massive hit after the contract expires.

As for competitive balance, we pay to watch the players play, not for the the owners make a massive profits. Ownership could and should pay up to make baseball more competitive, but we know that isn't reality. 

This is probably true. Always be the first to capitalize on a gray area, because it will get fixed. The fact that there is no current limit on the amount of money clubs are allowed to defer, well...

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

I'm sorry, but this is just stupid. A team with a valuation of $1 billion can't sign a player for $700 million. There's a real world out there.

Padres with 7 $100+ million contracts and certainly a valuation less than SOX...?

And then Ha-Seong Kim will be headed for yet another (#8) if he repeats his 2023.   Heck, utility player extraodinaire Cronenworth is even over that amount.

 

We'll never know how how long they could have sustained that under Peter Seidler...as the first white flag was obviously dumping Soto's $33-34 million salary for just ONE season to get back to under $200 million.

[TaylorStSox]

3 minutes ago, Capn12 said:

I'm also not crying "Man I can't afford the $50k a year landscaper that my coworker with the $8 million dollar home has."

....and then all the while, stuffing hundreds of thousands of dollars into my own savings.

Damn these businesses with a couple thousand employees for trying to remain profitable.

[Capn12]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You’re making this about the White Sox for some reason and ignoring the fact that many small market will never have the means to sign a contract like in any capacity.  And for the millionth, franchise value has nothing to do with liquidity.

I'm making it about ANY organization who cries poor, it just so happens our organization does it with perfection.

[Tnetennba]

3 minutes ago, Capn12 said:

Technically, he IS taking less money, because that 680 million will have less value when it gets collected, and with zero interest to boot.

Sure, but we aren't making semantic arguments about the future value of a dollar. For all intents and purposes, deferring 680 million dollars isn't taking less money because he wants to win

[TaylorStSox]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Padres with 7 $100+ million contracts and certainly a valuation less than SOX...?

And then Ha-Seong Kim will be headed for yet another (#8) if he repeats his 2023.   Heck, utility player extraodinaire Cronenworth is even over that amount.

 

We'll never know how how long they could have sustained that under Peter Seidler...as the first white flag was obviously dumping Soto's $33-34 million salary for just ONE season to get back to under $200 million.

Over the last 25 years, the Padres have had 3 years in the top 15 in baseball and 11 in the bottom 5. The Sox have consistently outspent them over the last quarter century despite having very similar valuations. Also, f*** Jerry.

Edited December 12, 2023 by TaylorStSox

[caulfield12]

Todd Boehly (also Dodgers' director) and Clearlake 'have cut Chelsea's average wage to under £75k-per-week', with contract negotiations 'fraught' as they face losing Mason Mount over failure to agree a new deal

• Chelsea have endured a tumultuous first campaign under Todd Boehly and Co.
• The Blues have signed 18 players for a spend of more than £600m this season
• But, the squad's average wage has been reduced to under £75,000 per week 

 

 

 

Chelsea's average salary has been dramatically reduced under the Todd Boehly-led ownership group, according to reports.

The American businessman, who is a co-owner of the Blues with Behdad Eghbali, joined forces with Clearlake Capital to purchase the club a year ago in the aftermath of Roman Abramovich being sanctioned by the UK government.

However, it has been a dismal and chaotic first season of ownership, with Boehly becoming a figure of fun in many quarters after several decisions have backfired.

 

Chelsea are languishing in 12th place and are on course for their first bottom-half finish since the 1995-96 campaign despite spending more than £600m on 18 players across the summer and winter transfer windows, as their strategy has often looked haphazard and flawed.

This has culminated in the Blues using a whopping 32 players in total this season - the second most in the top flight behind Nottingham Forest's 33 - while they have also had four caretaker or permanent managers in the dugout. 

 

And, according to The Times, one of the key legacies from their first year at the helm - which will soon see a third permanent manager of their tenure arrive when Mauricio Pochettino is announced - has been the reduction of the Blues' wage bill.

Upon arrival, Boehly and Clearlake were shocked at the sky-high salaries that were handed out under the previous regime, with Chelsea often gazumping several other clubs to signings by virtue of offering larger wages. 

 

This was no more evident than with the signing of Romelu Lukaku for £97.5m in the summer of 2021, with the Belgian striker becoming the highest-paid player in the club's history on £315,000-a-week.

However, Lukaku's return to the club where he was previously at between 2011 to 2014 was a disaster and he has spent this season out on loan with Inter Milan - but the 30-year-old still has three years to run on his mega-money contract.

The report goes onto state Boehly and Co. wanted to change this and lower the risk of signings potentially going wrong. 

As a result, several of this season's additions such as Enzo Fernandez, Mykhailo Muidryk and Noni Madueke have all penned much longer contracts on significantly lower wages. 

Those three new signings - who arrived for more than a £200m outlay - all signed Chelsea deals until at least 2030.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-12123177/Todd-Boehly-Clearlake-cut-Chelseas-average-wage-75k-week.html

 

 

 

[Capn12]

"The Dodgers will be paying a combined $79MM to Ohtani and Betts in 2043 when Betts will be 50 years old and Ohtani 48."

 

Guarantee that is a 'that is for the next ownership group to worry about' decision, 100%

[Tnetennba]

4 minutes ago, Capn12 said:

This is probably true. Always be the first to capitalize on a gray area, because it will get fixed. The fact that there is no current limit on the amount of money clubs are allowed to defer, well...

Exactly. Which is why I believe it will be addressed next time around. Cheap owners certainly won't stand for every rich team giving gobs of money to deserving players after all.

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

@South Side Hit Men - Do you not like parity?

My post earlier in this tread (linked below) there is much more parity in MLB than even a few decades ago prior to revenue sharing. 

MLB Owner controlled media (and much of corporate media beyond MLB) bemoaned the Yankees, Dodgers and other teams spending my entire life, and the Padres and Mets lately. 

The Yankees won when they were smart and developed a homegrown core in the late nineties. Mid-sized market teams Boston and San Francisco won with moneyball / build a core / smart spending.

The Cardinals are a bottom market city, but always ran a smart successful franchise.

Bottom line, smart owners/management win consistently regardless of money, and poorly run teams do not. The smart thing to do would be for the owners to force revenue sharing recipients to actually spend on players and FO, and contract 4-6 teams to split revenue for a better product on the field. Instead, they continue to expand despite shrinking interest in the sport.

Revenue Sharing Era World Series Titles (1995-2023) Twenty Nine Total World Series

Ranked by United States / Canadian Metropolitan Statistical Areas + Toronto

Ten Largest Market Teams (14 or 48%)

• #1/2 - New York (19.6M 2022 Estimate)
  • Yankees Five Four of five earned via their homegrown core, plus one in 2009.
  • Mets Zero They are in rebuild mode after three years of record spending and "ruining baseball".
• #3/4- Los Angeles (12.9M)
  • Dodgers One - Won during COVID faux season. Last legitimate season WS win in 1988.
  • Angels One - Via bogus wild card system. Sign stars, but can't build a core team.
• #5/6 - Chicago (9.3M)
  • White Sox One - Won despite of Jerry's internal sabotage.
  • Cubs One - Congratulations Ron, 1908 is just a memory.
• #7 - Arlington / Dallas / Fort Worth (7.9M) One - Finally, Cues Goodfellas scene
• #8 - Houston (7.4M) Two - Extreme tanking + 2017 Cheating
• #9 - Washington (6.3M) One - Via bogus wild card system.
• #10 - Philadelphia (6.2M) One - It's rarely sunny in Philadelphia. 2008 was the outlier.

Middle Ten (12 or 41%)

• #11 - Atlanta (6.2M) Two - Gross on multiple levels.
• #12 - Toronto (6.2M) Zero 1994 + currency issues killed one Canadian team, hindered this one.
• #13 - Miami (6.1M) Two - Both Wild Card teams followed by tear-downs. Still haven't won NL East.
• #14 - Arizona (5.0M) One - America pulled for you against the Yankees, and you were rewarded. 
• #15 - Boston (4.9M) Four - Moneyball + Fenway Park.
• #16/17 - San Francisco (4.6M) 
  • Giants Three -  Moneyball Sabean + Bochy
  • Athletics Zero - John Fisher is scum. Boycott The Gap
• #18 - Detroit (4.3M) Zero - They won two pennants, not sure if Pizza Pizza sons will ever compete.
• #19 - Seattle (4.0M) Zero - Cheap and stupid since Go!, wasted Griffey and Ichiro Goodwill. 
• #20 - Minneapolis (5.0M) Zero - Can't win if you don't try. Need to build a solid core once again.

 Bottom Ten (3 or 10%)

• #21 - Tampa (3.4M) Zero - Still compete in the AL East due to FO. Owner + stadium locations = stupid.
• #22 - San Diego (3.3M) Zero - Finally got a good owner since the McDonalds people and he dies.
• #23 - Denver (3.0M) Zero - Cheaper and dumber than Jerry, these owners should be kicked out of MLB.
• #24 - Baltimore (2.8M) Zero - Ownership is bottom three scum. City becoming the same.
• #25 - Saint Louis (2.8M) Two - Bottom city size, but run with solid smarts and pride so fans come out.
• #26 - Pittsburgh (2.4M) Zero - Stadium great, fans care and come out. Last two owners atrocious.
• #27 - Cincinnati (2.3M) Zero - Small town with great fans and support, brutal ownership.
• #28 - Kansas City (2.2M) One - Fell from a top run team after Kauffman died. New stadium will help.
• #29 - Cleveland (2.2M) Zero - Team competitive post new stadium, but current ownership terrible.
• #30 - Milwaukee (1.6M) Zero - Selig developed the revenue sharing, pocketed the proceeds.

Edited December 12, 2023 by South Side Hit Men

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

My post earlier in this tread (linked below) there is much more parity in MLB than even a few decades ago prior to revenue sharing. 

MLB Owner controlled media (and much of corporate media beyond MLB) bemoaned the Yankees, Dodgers and other teams spending my entire life, and the Padres and Mets lately. 

The Yankees won when they were smart and developed a homegrown core in the late nineties. Mid-sized market teams Boston and San Francisco won with moneyball / build a core / smart spending.

The Cardinals are a bottom market city, but always ran a smart successful franchise.

Bottom line, smart owners/management win consistently regardless of money, and poorly run teams do not. The smart thing to do would be for the owners to force revenue sharing recipients to actually spend on players and FO, and contract 4-6 teams to split revenue for a better product on the field. Instead, they continue to expand despite shrinking interest in the sport.

Revenue Sharing Era World Series Titles (1995-2023) Twenty Nine Total World Series

Ranked by United States / Canadian Metropolitan Statistical Areas + Toronto

Ten Largest Market Teams (14 or 48%)

• #1/2 - New York (19.6M 2022 Estimate)
  • Yankees Five Four of five earned via their homegrown core, plus one in 2009.
  • Mets Zero They are in rebuild mode after three years of record spending and "ruining baseball".
• #3/4- Los Angeles (12.9M)
  • Dodgers One - Won during COVID faux season. Last legitimate season WS win in 1988.
  • Angels One - Via bogus wild card system. Sign stars, but can't build a core team.
• #5/6 - Chicago (9.3M)
  • White Sox One - Won despite of Jerry's internal sabotage.
  • Cubs One - Congratulations Ron, 1908 is just a memory.
• #7 - Arlington / Dallas / Fort Worth (7.9M) One - Finally, Cues Goodfellas scene
• #8 - Houston (7.4M) Two - Extreme tanking + 2017 Cheating
• #9 - Washington (6.3M) One - Via bogus wild card system.
• #10 - Philadelphia (6.2M) One - It's rarely sunny in Philadelphia. 2008 was the outlier.

Middle Ten (12 or 41%)

• #11 - Atlanta (6.2M) Two - Gross on multiple levels.
• #12 - Toronto (6.2M) Zero 1994 + currency issues killed one Canadian team, hindered this one.
• #13 - Miami (6.1M) Two - Both Wild Card teams followed by tear-downs. Still haven't won NL East.
• #14 - Arizona (5.0M) One - America pulled for you against the Yankees, and you were rewarded. 
• #15 - Boston (4.9M) Four - Moneyball + Fenway Park.
• #16/17 - San Francisco (4.6M) 
  • Giants Three -  Moneyball Sabean + Bochy
  • Athletics Zero - John Fisher is scum. Boycott The Gap
• #18 - Detroit (4.3M) Zero - They won two pennants, not sure if Pizza Pizza sons will ever compete.
• #19 - Seattle (4.0M) Zero - Cheap and stupid since Go!, wasted Griffey and Ichiro Goodwill. 
• #20 - Minneapolis (5.0M) Zero - Can't win if you don't try. Need to build a solid core once again.

 Bottom Ten (3 or 10%)

• #21 - Tampa (3.4M) Zero - Still compete in the AL East due to FO. Owner + stadium locations = stupid.
• #22 - San Diego (3.3M) Zero - Finally got a good owner since the McDonalds people and he dies.
• #23 - Denver (3.0M) Zero - Cheaper and dumber than Jerry, these owners should be kicked out of MLB.
• #24 - Baltimore (2.8M) Zero - Ownership is bottom three scum. City becoming the same.
• #25 - Saint Louis (2.8M) Two - Bottom city size, but run with solid smarts and pride so fans come out.
• #26 - Pittsburgh (2.4M) Zero - Stadium great, fans care and come out. Last two owners atrocious.
• #27 - Cincinnati (2.3M) Zero - Small town with great fans and support, brutal ownership.
• #28 - Kansas City (2.2M) One - Fell from a top run team after Kauffman died. New stadium will help.
• #29 - Cleveland (2.2M) Zero - Team competitive post new stadium, but current ownership terrible.
• #30 - Milwaukee (1.6M) Zero - Selig developed the revenue sharing, pocketed the proceeds.

I’m sorry, but what does this prove other than the smallest market teams are up against horrible odds of winning a World Series?  And calling SF & Boston “mid” market clubs but completing ignoring the wealth of those markets is very  disingenuous.  Move those seven championships to the top group and the disparity is even more telling.  It’s wild that anyone can actually believe baseball isn’t a broken mess.  The randomness of the playoffs doesn’t change that fact.

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, TaylorStSox said:

The Sox have the 16th highest valuation in baseball and have averaged the 13th highest payroll over the last 20 years. The Sox will never be able to compete with the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. It's just not realistic. It's MLB's fault more than the Sox.

Facts are stubborn things,

Last World Series Championship (played over a full regular season)

• 2015 Kansas City Royals
• 2009 New York Yankees
• 2005 Chicago White Sox
• 1991 Minnesota Twins
• 1990 Cincinnati Reds
• 1988 Los Angeles Dodgers
• 1986 New York Mets

The Dodgers were swept by Arizona to open their 2023 playoffs. They started Steak in an elimination game, lost the series 19 runs to 6. The Mets and Yankees didn't even qualify as a wild card.

2023 Playoff Teams

• $125.3M Milwaukee Brewers
• $119.3M Arizona Diamondbacks
• $105.4M Miami Marlins
• $79.4M Tampa Bay Rays
• $71.1M Baltimore Orioles

2023 Non Playoff Teams

• $343.6M New York Mets
• $278.7M New York Yankees
• $256.0M San Diego Padres
• $230.5M Los Angeles Angels
• $188.9M Chicago Cubs 

Total Payroll Source

The Dodgers will be lucky to win 1 or 2 World Series over the next ten years, despite all the hand wringing.

[South Side Hit Men]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/why-shohei-ohtanis-contract-structure-is-not-a-luxury-tax-dodge.html

This link discusses the how the $46M AAV for the "luxury" tax is currently within the CBA perimeters, was inline with the projected $50M AAV contract value, with quotes from Passan and Heyman. There are few players in position to take such a deferral, and it's different then stretching out a contract into a players mid-40s or beyond to truly circumvent the tax.

Previously owners have taken advantage of it, like the crack-head broke Wilpons who thought they were smarter than everyone else and deferred Bobby Bonilla's salary into 2035 because they put every penny into guaranteed 15% profits by Bernie Madoff. 

Karma.

Edited December 12, 2023 by South Side Hit Men