Bummer to ATL

[southsider2k5]

59 minutes ago, T R U said:

I mean you can’t really pick and choose which advanced stats count but like I said it was time to move on. Either way, we didn’t get anything worth a s%*# in return was the main point. 

Right, because Flexen doesn't have a FIP 2.5 runs better than his ERA that is being ignored here.

[46DidIt]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Right, because Flexen doesn't have a FIP 2.5 runs better than his ERA that is being ignored here.

Flexen wasn’t part of the Bummer trade.

Shuster was the only real get of the Bummer trade, plus the role of the dice on Soroka. Lopez, Shewmake and the other minor league pitcher were obviously just filler. Not sure what kind of return any one could reasonably expect for a reliever coming off a 7 ERA season, but if Shuster takes a rotation spot, to me that would be a won trade

[Paulie4Pres]

Getting anything for Bummer is a win. He fucking sucks.

[bmags]

On 11/17/2023 at 7:11 AM, bmags said:

I’m not expecting a lot for bummer, but nearly all these guys are out of time. Their pedigrees mean as much as Hahn trading for former top 100 guys.

If Shewmake struggles in AAA as a 26 year old, he has no value.

Schuster, also 25, I’ll say this. His slider maybe means he can turn into a bullpen piece with control.

But I feel like over the years we’ve taken on X number of former Atlanta top prospect pitchers and they’ve never been wrong that a guy is washed.

I mean a handful of the Aball pitchers I’d like more from a profile perspective.

Id non tender Lopez. He’s not gonna get $4 million.

Hell yess thank you past me. Granted - there is no joy in this white sox world, but a good post. A good post.

[WestEddy]

 

[Buehrle>Wood]

8 hours ago, Paulie4Pres said:

Getting anything for Bummer is a win. He fucking sucks.

Simple as this.

[bmags]

On 4/15/2024 at 11:53 AM, Buehrle>Wood said:

Simple as this.

We are about 45 days in:

ATL gets

Aaron Bummer + 0.2 fWAR

CHW get:

Jared Schuster + 0.1 fWAR

Nicky Lopez -0.1 fWAR

Braden Schewmake -0.5 fWAR

Mike Soroka -0.5 fWAR

Riley Gowens mercifully is just a 24 year old sucking in A+

Totals

ATL +0.2 fWAR

CHW -1.0 fWAR

Which on a normal team would indicate that not trading bummer would mean the sox added 1.2 wins above replacement to their team. But obviously, we know its possible Getz would have found even worse players than Shewmake and Lopez, so this may be true that it prevented even more harm.

[whitesoxfan99]

29 minutes ago, bmags said:

We are about 45 days in:

ATL gets

Aaron Bummer + 0.2 fWAR

CHW get:

Jared Schuster + 0.1 fWAR

Nicky Lopez -0.1 fWAR

Braden Schewmake -0.5 fWAR

Mike Soroka -0.5 fWAR

Riley Gowens mercifully is just a 24 year old sucking in A+

Totals

ATL +0.2 fWAR

CHW -1.0 fWAR

Which on a normal team would indicate that not trading bummer would mean the sox added 1.2 wins above replacement to their team. But obviously, we know its possible Getz would have found even worse players than Shewmake and Lopez, so this may be true that it prevented even more harm.

And even Shuster who is the lone "positive" piece has shown no actual major league talent.  He has been rocked in the minors and has shown zero ability to miss bats in the majors.

[Bob Sacamano]

43 minutes ago, bmags said:

We are about 45 days in:

ATL gets

Aaron Bummer + 0.2 fWAR

CHW get:

Jared Schuster + 0.1 fWAR

Nicky Lopez -0.1 fWAR

Braden Schewmake -0.5 fWAR

Mike Soroka -0.5 fWAR

Riley Gowens mercifully is just a 24 year old sucking in A+

Totals

ATL +0.2 fWAR

CHW -1.0 fWAR

Which on a normal team would indicate that not trading bummer would mean the sox added 1.2 wins above replacement to their team. But obviously, we know its possible Getz would have found even worse players than Shewmake and Lopez, so this may be true that it prevented even more harm.

Well, we do know we were getting about 3 non-tender candidates in that deal (Soroka, Lopez, Shewmake).

Edited May 8 by Bob Sacamano

[Dick Allen]

11 minutes ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

And even Shuster who is the lone "positive" piece has shown no actual major league talent.  He has been rocked in the minors and has shown zero ability to miss bats in the majors.

To me it was worth the gamble on Soroka snapping back to being pretty good. It's Aaron Bummer who is owed some decent money. It didn't work out, but it made some sense. I would rather have Shuster than Bummer on the 2024 and 2025 White Sox.

[whitesoxfan99]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

To me it was worth the gamble on Soroka snapping back to being pretty good. It's Aaron Bummer who is owed some decent money. It didn't work out, but it made some sense. I would rather have Shuster than Bummer on the 2024 and 2025 White Sox.

I'd rather have Bummer.  I also think Shuster is really bad and has zero chance of helping this team.  Soroka becoming good again was the only chance that trade would have any value and the chances of that happen were insanely small given he hadn't been good in 5 years.

[Bob Sacamano]

34 minutes ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

I'd rather have Bummer.  I also think Shuster is really bad and has zero chance of helping this team.  Soroka becoming good again was the only chance that trade would have any value and the chances of that happen were insanely small given he hadn't been good in 5 years.

Yep. They did need bodies so it did make sense but this was never going to be a one-sided deal in favor of the Sox if Soroka did not bounce back.

Edited May 8 by Bob Sacamano

[ChiSox59]

39 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

To me it was worth the gamble on Soroka snapping back to being pretty good. It's Aaron Bummer who is owed some decent money. It didn't work out, but it made some sense. I would rather have Shuster than Bummer on the 2024 and 2025 White Sox.

This.  Soroka was a worthwhile gamble on for a bad team that needed MLB pitching.  He's been terrible, but it was good process.  Had he shown glimpes of his early-career self, that is a very nice trade chip.  Just didn't work out that way.  

Shuster and Shewmake were perfectly reasonable secondary pieces to take back, and Gowens was a fine longer term tertiary piece.  Lopez was questionable, but obviously we all know the Sox 2B history, and even though his arb figure is about $2M too much, he was also a fine enough bounceback candidate and he can play some D.  He can't hit a lick, but his defense does make him a major league. But he'll be a no brainer non-contender for 2025 at the current arb price. 

[Jake]

In an analysis like this, I tend to totally discount the negative WAR values — we could demote or get rid of those guys if there was a need to immediately improve those spots. And, of course, Sox are playing a longer game here. Shuster is probably the most key player. Hasn't been super impressive yet, but he's got a while to potentially return value. That's true of Gowens also but he's much more of a long shot. Shewmake is under control for a long time as well but it's getting harder to see how he becomes a good player. But sure, let's put him in AAA and see if he ever figures something out and/or gains 25 pounds.

Bummer has a 0.2 fWAR but also a 0.0 RA9/WAR because he once again has a worse ERA than FIP. Unlike last season, his Statcast xERA matches his ERA. Bummer is at least doing something a little different so far, cutting his walk rate in half. But his fastball velocity has dropped another mph (after a mph drop last year) and his whiff rate has dropped a lot perhaps as a consequence. So part of the evaluation concerns whether you think Bummer would have gained value if the Sox held onto him.

Edited May 8 by Jake

[bmags]

20 minutes ago, Jake said:

In an analysis like this, I tend to totally discount the negative WAR values — we could demote or get rid of those guys if there was a need to immediately improve those spots. And, of course, Sox are playing a longer game here. Shuster is probably the most key player. Hasn't been super impressive yet, but he's got a while to potentially return value. That's true of Gowens also but he's much more of a long shot. Shewmake is under control for a long time as well but it's getting harder to see how he becomes a good player. But sure, let's put him in AAA and see if he ever figures something out and/or gains 25 pounds.

Bummer has a 0.2 fWAR but also a 0.0 RA9/WAR because he once again has a worse ERA than FIP. Unlike last season, his Statcast xERA matches his ERA. Bummer is at least doing something a little different so far, cutting his walk rate in half. But his fastball velocity has dropped another mph (after a mph drop last year) and his whiff rate has dropped a lot perhaps as a consequence. So part of the evaluation concerns whether you think Bummer would have gained value if the Sox held onto him.

They could only trade him once. So your evaluation is that "yes the sox made a great trade because they acquired a 25 year old marginal RH relief prospect and 4 players that were far below major league level, made the team worse, and also created a 40 man crunch that has caused them to let go of more promising players" is a win and I guess i disagree.

[bmags]

Sox could have traded nothing and gotten these guys as free agents after they were DFA'd is my main point.

[Dick Allen]

35 minutes ago, bmags said:

Sox could have traded nothing and gotten these guys as free agents after they were DFA'd is my main point.

I just don't think Aaron Bummer and the almost $7 million he was owed was going to get you anything. And the Sox really had no reason to pay someone of his ilk $7 million because unless something crazy happened, they were going to buy him out. A recurring theme with all of Rick Hahn's extensions. 

[whitesoxfan99]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I just don't think Aaron Bummer and the almost $7 million he was owed was going to get you anything. And the Sox really had no reason to pay someone of his ilk $7 million because unless something crazy happened, they were going to buy him out. A recurring theme with all of Rick Hahn's extensions. 

They are paying Lopez $4.3m and Soroka $3m and Soroka probably gets cut soon because he is complete trash.  I'd much rather pay Bummer $7m than Lopez and Soroka over $7m.

[oldsox]

I've said this before, but last season Sox would often bring Bummer in with the game on the line and a left-handed hitter up. He would invariably walk that first guy, and then he has to face the next two righties, and Boom.

[WestEddy]

44 minutes ago, bmags said:

also created a 40 man crunch that has caused them to let go of more promising players

Only if you believe that Alex Spies is more promising than Jared Shuster, or Popeye Rodriguez has more prospect than Braden Shewmake. 

[WestEddy]

7 minutes ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

They are paying Lopez $4.3m and Soroka $3m and Soroka probably gets cut soon because he is complete trash.  I'd much rather pay Bummer $7m than Lopez and Soroka over $7m.

Then you would be paying Bummer $7m, AND another 2B $4 million and another starting pitcher $3 million. 

What Getz did, basically, was trade $7 million in payroll for 4 40-man spots. In that, they got 2 utility infielders, 2 bullpen arms, and a lotto ticket on Soroka snapping back. 

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I just don't think Aaron Bummer and the almost $7 million he was owed was going to get you anything. And the Sox really had no reason to pay someone of his ilk $7 million because unless something crazy happened, they were going to buy him out. A recurring theme with all of Rick Hahn's extensions. 

To be fair, Bummer makes ~$4.5M above league average and has a $1.25M buyout, so his total cost above the minimum was $5.75M.  This year alone, Lopez and Soroka make $5.3M above the minimum plus the guy the Sox replaced Bummer with (Tim Hill) makes $0.8M above the minimum.  The dollars are fairly close to even overall…we just filled multiple holes with low upside players instead of holding hope on the higher upside guy.  I’m not going to lose sleep over this trade (and didn’t mind taking a shot on Soroka), but it was always a long shot of actually delivering any value and that’s proven true so far.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Then you would be paying Bummer $7m, AND another 2B $4 million and another starting pitcher $3 million. 

What Getz did, basically, was trade $7 million in payroll for 4 40-man spots. In that, they got 2 utility infielders, 2 bullpen arms, and a lotto ticket on Soroka snapping back. 

For what we are getting out of our 2B, we could have been paying minimum wage to Remilard or Sosa and gotten the same thing.

[whitesoxfan99]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

For what we are getting out of our 2B, we could have been paying minimum wage to Remilard or Sosa and gotten the same thing.

Could have thrown any random SP out there and not done worse than Soroka as well.  

[WestEddy]

2 minutes ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

Could have thrown any random SP out there and not done worse than Soroka as well. 

Yeah, but a random SP doesn't have the pedigree of a first rounder who, if fixed, is a major trade piece. It's like walking out of a casino, and declaring that you'd rather have your $100 back. Getz took a gamble on Soroka and Lopez, and still has a couple of bullpen arms to dream on.