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Lance Lynn to StL on 1 year deal


Sleepy Harold

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24 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

So how many organizations had "acquire pitchers that had to try and get batters out with Tim Anderson as their SS and a first baseman trying to play RF" on the top of their list this offseason?

Tim was a + defensively last year despite being an abomination at the plate.

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Tim was a + defensively last year despite being an abomination at the plate.

Just because SS is an important defensive position and he gets +WAR for playing there doesn't mean he is good at it.  He was terrible.  

TA was 18th out of 20 qualified in UZR.  20th out of 20 in DRS.  Dude sucks.  

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23 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

So how many organizations had "acquire pitchers that had to try and get batters out with Tim Anderson as their SS and a first baseman trying to play RF" on the top of their list this offseason?

Outfielders can't catch most home runs without a trampoline or jet pack.

SP Allowing 1.5 + HR per 9 innings (Qualified Pitchers)

  1. 2.16 Lance Lynn
  2. 2.00 Lucas Giolito
  3. 1.98 Jordan Lyles
  4. 1.78 JP Sears
  5. 1.65 Patrick Corbin

Bottom 5 xERA (Qualified Pitchers)

  1. 6.16 Patrick Corbin
  2. 5.41 Miles Mikolas
  3. 5.03 Jordan Lyles
  4. 4.96 Dean Kremer
  5. 4.86 Lance Lynn

 

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35 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

So how many organizations had "acquire pitchers that had to try and get batters out with Tim Anderson as their SS and a first baseman trying to play RF" on the top of their list this offseason?

Lynn is cooked. His issue was homers, not the defense behind him. He gave up the most homers in baseball last year and that didn't stop when he got traded to the Dodgers.

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4 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Outfielders can't catch most home runs without a trampoline or jet pack.

SP Allowing 1.5 + HR per 9 innings (Qualified Pitchers)

  1. 2.16 Lance Lynn
  2. 2.00 Lucas Giolito
  3. 1.98 Jordan Lyles
  4. 1.78 JP Sears
  5. 1.65 Patrick Corbin

Bottom 5 xERA (Qualified Pitchers)

  1. 6.16 Patrick Corbin
  2. 5.41 Miles Mikolas
  3. 5.03 Jordan Lyles
  4. 4.96 Dean Kremer
  5. 4.86 Lance Lynn

 

Just pointing out that 3 of the first 5 "major" pitching acquisitions were White Sox last season.  Feels like a trend.  Sox fans dancing on tiktok because of Bummer's baseball card stats.  I'll take my chances with the Braves and Cards.  

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9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Tim was a + defensively last year despite being an abomination at the plate.

Tim was a -19 in defensive runs saved above average, a -1 in baseball savant's fielding value (89th overall SS), and a -7.6 in Fangraphs runs above average per 150 games (good for 93rd of 126 ranked SS, or 18th out of 20 qualifying SS's.  He was by all definitions a horrific SS last year. 

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2 hours ago, chw42 said:

Lynn is cooked. His issue was homers, not the defense behind him. He gave up the most homers in baseball last year and that didn't stop when he got traded to the Dodgers.

It actually got worse with the Dodgers, he just had great BABIP luck that masked it:

  • CWS Lance: 5.19 FIP, 10.8 K/9, 3.20 K/BB, 2.1 HR/9
  • LAD Lance: 6.16 FIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.14 K/BB, 2.3 HR/9

Whatever they tweaked to try to make him better against lefties just got him crushed by righties instead. It took Lynn  278 ABs vs. RHH to give up 10 HR as a Sox (3.6% rate), and just 129 ABs to do the same as a Dodger (7.7% rate) despite a less HR friendly home park.

But he had much better luck on the balls that stayed in the ballpark (his BABIP dropped by nearly 100 points to an unsustainable .232), so he avoided the "big" homers en route to giving up more overall.

Hopefully the Cards have a different plan than LA, because his contact profile there wasn't encouraging at all for a guy whose biggest problem is the long ball:

  • GB%: down 6.2%
  • FB%: up 7.6%
  • K%: down 9.7%
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1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

The Reynaldo contract is reasonable to me.
This Lynn contract, on the other hand, suggests that the Sox will have to undertake some reclamation projects.  Soroka is one.  And another is our very own Kopech.  Trading Kopech WOULD be selling at low value.

Yeah, I don't think it's that bad. Maybe a little more than you would like but that's the market I guess. Also, a team that has so many friendly contracts can afford to overpay like this every now and then.

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3 hours ago, GREEDY said:

Just pointing out that 3 of the first 5 "major" pitching acquisitions were White Sox last season.  Feels like a trend.  Sox fans dancing on tiktok because of Bummer's baseball card stats.  I'll take my chances with the Braves and Cards.  

The Braves have a solid front office. I agree with you Bummer should be good or better, defended him last year here, one of the few here.

Cardinals have a solid farm system, their FA signings have been mixed. Part of that is they spend mid market, though like all but a couple clubs roll go big on the right guy.

Seems like a “get a lower cost guy who will eat innings, hope he can be salvaged” type of deal. Would have looked elsewhere, but he brings them cost certainty why they pursue actual players who can help in the playoffs like Nola.

 

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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3 hours ago, GREEDY said:

Just because SS is an important defensive position and he gets +WAR for playing there doesn't mean he is good at it.  He was terrible.  

TA was 18th out of 20 qualified in UZR.  20th out of 20 in DRS.  Dude sucks.  

What?

I couldn't care less about an individual season uzr rating. 

He wasn't good but he was far from killing pitchers success. His OAA was -1. 13 guys sit between +3/-3 in OAA. 6 more sit below that. Do unless 19 ss's kill their team a year...

Most fielding metrics suck but I'll take oaa above drs and uzr and tim didn't rank high in oaa, he just wasn't a detriment to the team defensively which was my point.

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