Braves acquire Jarred Kelenic

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

 

I think he's worth more than you think. I also think he's worth less than you think if it were the other way around and the Sox were trying to get someone of his ilk. I'll take what Billy Beane got for 1 year of the the Shark.  i'm not too stuck on top 100 or whatever. The real top 100 list when these guys actually get to the major leagues or fail, will look pretty different from what it looks like the day Cease gets traded. Getz just can't mess it up. It's pretty much his only bullet. 

Well yeah, Billy Beane got an MVP candidate and an all star pitcher for Samardzija. He only pulled this off because he completely and utterly outmatched the GM he was trading with. On paper though, that trade back two players who the White Sox (and most of their fans) thought were worth very little. The reaction at the time was a whole lot of "we didn't give up very much to get Samardjiza this is awesome" and I don't think anyone would be happy if the White Sox sent Cease somewhere and the fans of the other team went "Boy was he cheaper than we expected this was awesome".

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well yeah, Billy Beane got an MVP candidate and an all star pitcher for Samardzija. He only pulled this off because he completely and utterly outmatched the GM he was trading with. On paper though, that trade back two players who the White Sox (and most of their fans) thought were worth very little. The reaction at the time was a whole lot of "we didn't give up very much to get Samardjiza this is awesome" and I don't think anyone would be happy if the White Sox sent Cease somewhere and the fans of the other team went "Boy was he cheaper than we expected this was awesome".

I think if you went back and read the thread, most people thought the Sox made a mistake.

 

The one problem is everyone know how bad the Sox are at developing. So a guy like Bassett or Semien, even if they turn out great, the out is they would never have been close to that player for the White Sox.  The sad part is the guy who was in charge of that development now makes the deals. At least he's not Hahn, but ......

Edited December 4, 2023 by Dick Allen

[ChiSox59]

21 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Pretend the White Sox were trying to acquire Dylan Cease. Then you would have a totally different opinion of what he would cost. Take that price, and then take the lowball you think he's worth because he wears a White sox uniform, and split the difference. That's probably pretty close to what the White Sox will get.

I’ve never read a more accurate Soxtalk post. Well done, Dick. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

 

I think he's worth more than you think. I also think he's worth less than you think if it were the other way around and the Sox were trying to get someone of his ilk. I'll take what Billy Beane got for 1 year of the the Shark.  i'm not too stuck on top 100 or whatever. The real top 100 list when these guys actually get to the major leagues or fail, will look pretty different from what it looks like the day Cease gets traded. Getz just can't mess it up. It's pretty much his only bullet. 

Good analogy. He needs to hit the right ? while others are waving more targets at him. Only 1 shot to get it right.

[WestEddy]

10 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The sad part is the guy who was in charge of that development now makes the deals.

That trade was made in 2014. Chris Getz was hired in 2016.

[Tnetennba]

2 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Think of what Cease did outside of 2022 and that's probably closer to his value. What would you give up for his 2021 and 2023? 

If we were talking about a 5 or 6 year sample with only one Cy Young caliber season, tossing out Cease's 2022 might be a worthwhile evaluation, but we aren't. 

[Balta1701]

30 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I think if you went back and read the thread, most people thought the Sox made a mistake.

 

The one problem is everyone know how bad the Sox are at developing. So a guy like Bassett or Semien, even if they turn out great, the out is they would never have been close to that player for the White Sox.  The sad part is the guy who was in charge of that development now makes the deals. At least he's not Hahn, but ......

here's a selection. 

 

Get real guys it was a very avg haul with Semien keying the deal. Them talking about phegley is especially lol worthy. Come on man.

Haha! A's fans are talking long term when their GM is known to trade players as they are going into their arbitration years. Its possible that two or three of the traded players will have long careers, just not in an A's uniform, lol.

 think Hahn made a great move getting Samardzija for what he had to give up. That being said I'm just looking at this as a 1 year rental for the time being. I think Samardzija as much as he loves the city and all, first and foremost wants to get paid top dollar. MLB is the only sport without a salary cap and players seem to take every advantage of it. I'm not trying to p!ss on anyone's parade here but this guy has said for a while now he intends to test the UFA market and I believe he will do just that. Not confident he'll be in a Sox uni in 2016 but I trust Hahn in making this team competitive the next few years with or without Samardzija.

What a great deal for this team! 

Also, I just love hearing Rick Hahn talk. Pretty serious mancrush.   (This one is specifically why I am not copying names)

As I've said before, besides Wite I'm probably Marcus' biggest fan but he's gone in a heartbeat if he's the main piece in a deal for JS. (Same poster as above)

Here's one specifically said to me when I dared question Samardzija's Exceptional record: "Would you say Chris Sale has been a good pitcher for the last 4 years? I ask because Sale and Samardzija have been on the exact same developmental scale over the last 4 years. Save for Sale getting hurt this year, I think their innings would look almost exactly the same. Sale's better, but Samardzija is still a very, very good pitcher."

On Marcus: "He's certainly not irreplaceable.  Who's volunteering to drive him to the airport?"

A legit #2 for Danish/Semien is a relative small price to pay.

I like Semien, but if the main part of the trade is Semien for Shark, it's done yesterday.

I love you Rick (oh god this poster is still here)

Hell Yeah!!! Fired up. Fantastic trade. Beane gets three guys, all of whom have a shot, but all of whom have legitimate flaws and none of which are top 100 guys. I make this trade every day. Whether it pans out or not, who knows, but on paper, I can't fault Rick H for this!!!

Rick Hahn's walking along 5th Street in the gaslamp district making it rain.

Rick f***ing Hahn. Kenny damned Williams.

Holy crap. That is stealing from the A's.

So much better then Danish and Trey IMO!

Happy Happy Joy joy

Seriously. Great trade. Semien is the only moderately concerning name in that deal. Sox are going to either get an extension or a draft pick at the end of the year too. I ain't mad.

Wow, first the news of Robertson, now Shark AND the Sox did not have to give up Anderson,Montas, Danish, Hawkins or Ravelo! Well done Hahn.

If he's a 4 WAR pitcher going forward, this deal is a steal and I absolutely love Semien.

I support that. Would have preferred Beck being the pitcher over Bassitt, mainly because I think Bassitt can be a good reliever. Again...two guys, none of which are top 100 guys, a few months after the so called genius GM traded a top 10 prospect for Shark.

Wow, I was really looking forward to Bassitt in the pen eventually, but if this is the entire deal then I love it!

So it's just Bassitt + Semien? That's better than Semien, Trayce and Beck!

I'm pretty surprised Bassitt and Beck have any value tbh.

I've gone through about 50 pages and there's very scant traces of people saying we overpaid. There's a very uniform euphoria. Guess who the first person to specifically say "I still don't like it" was? And the very first reply I got? "That post is so full of fail". You should see the reactions I got when I dared to write that they were still a sub .500 team.

[nrockway]

1 hour ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Because he's not been close to that type of pitcher any other time in his career. It was fueled by an unsustainable strand rate. 

His 3 year average bWAR is 3.9 and made, I’m pretty sure, every scheduled start. At 9mil and 20mil, that’s an incredibly useful player. 

[baseball_gal_aly]

11 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

If we were talking about a 5 or 6 year sample with only one Cy Young caliber season, tossing out Cease's 2022 might be a worthwhile evaluation, but we aren't. 

Yes we are. 

Cease has pitched in parts of 5 seasons

Are we now pretending like 2019 and 2020 didn't happen because they weren't full seasons? 

Edited December 4, 2023 by baseball_gal_aly

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Cease has pitched in parts of 5 seasons

Cease's 2021 was also a good. He led the league in K/9. While Dylan Cease may not be one of the top 3-5 pitchers in the game, he is an incredibly valuable pitcher who will give you a floor-to-ceiling 2.5-6 bWAR. The fact that his absolute floor at this phase of his career is better than average, I'm not sure why people are talking about him like he's Dylan Covey, or something. 

In money paid for his endurance, talent, upside, and lack of drama - for 2 controllable years - he's the best value available in trade or free agency. I'm not sure why that's so hard to grasp. 

[baseball_gal_aly]

3 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Cease's 2021 was also a good. He led the league in K/9. While Dylan Cease may not be one of the top 3-5 pitchers in the game, he is an incredibly valuable pitcher who will give you a floor-to-ceiling 2.5-6 bWAR. The fact that his absolute floor at this phase of his career is better than average, I'm not sure why people are talking about him like he's Dylan Covey, or something. 

In money paid for his endurance, talent, upside, and lack of drama - for 2 controllable years - he's the best value available in trade or free agency. I'm not sure why that's so hard to grasp. 

I just don't value what he brings. 

He's Rich Harden if Harden could stay healthy. 

[Tnetennba]

5 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Yes we are. 

Cease has pitched in parts of 5 seasons

*Parts* of 5 seasons, one of which was his rookie call up year and the crazy 2020 season w/ no Spring Training. Not exactly a full 5 season sample where tossing out one singular very best might tell a more accurate story of the pitcher he is.

Think of Cease however you wish, but I think its silly to assume he is a finished product and his 2023 is the pitcher he will be going forward.

[baseball_gal_aly]

12 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

*Parts* of 5 seasons, one of which was his rookie call up year and the crazy 2020 season w/ no Spring Training. Not exactly a full 5 season sample where tossing out one singular very best might tell a more accurate story of the pitcher he is.

Think of Cease however you wish, but I think its silly to assume he is a finished product and his 2023 is the pitcher he will be going forward.

I think Cease's 2022 is such an outlier that it should be dismissed. 

I'd have to see him average over 96 mph again to believe that 2023 isn't what he is going forward. 

If the Sox were Baltimore and Baltimore were the Sox, I'd hard pass on acquiring him unless I wasn't giving up any T100 guys. 

I'm open to the idea that I'm wrong here, but if I were Baltimore someone like Hall would be the top piece in a deal from my perspective. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by baseball_gal_aly

[WestEddy]

11 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I just don't value what he brings. 

Then I have no idea what you think a baseball pitcher should be doing. 

[Quin]

Do you think Mariners fans ever saw this site and went "why the f*** are Sox fans so obsessed with our outfielder that hit under .200 two years in a row and strikes out in a third of his at-bats?"

[baseball_gal_aly]

2 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Then I have no idea what you think a baseball pitcher should be doing. 

Going more than 5 innings and not walking everyone. 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

3 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I think Cease's 2022 is such an outlier that it should be dismissed. 

I'd have to see him average over 96 mph again to believe that 2023 isn't what he is going forward. 

If the Sox were Baltimore and Baltimore were the Sox, I'd hard pass on acquiring him unless I wasn't giving up any T100 guys. 

With all due respect, this is why you are not a GM. You are acting like 2022 was the only good year Cease had. He had 3.5+ fWAR in both 2021 and 2023 as well. He’s also durable, controlled for 2 more seasons, has good stuff, and is not expensive. Those are all important factors that you are overlooking.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, Quin said:

Do you think Mariners fans ever saw this site and went "why the f*** are Sox fans so obsessed with our outfielder that hit under .200 two years in a row and strikes out in a third of his at-bats?"

"Why does he have his own appreciation thread?"

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

With all due respect, this is why you are not a GM. You are acting like 2022 was the only good year Cease had. He had 3.5+ fWAR in both 2021 and 2023 as well. He’s also durable, controlled for 2 more seasons, has good stuff, and is not expensive. Those are all important factors that you are overlooking.

Most starts over the past 3 years.

[baseball_gal_aly]

Just now, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

With all due respect, this is why you are not a GM. You are acting like 2022 was the only good year Cease had. He had 3.5+ fWAR in both 2021 and 2023 as well. He’s also durable, controlled for 2 more seasons, has good stuff, and is not expensive. Those are all important factors that you are overlooking.

I think fWAR overrates him because he strikes out a lot of guys. Chris Archer is another guy that I think is a good comp for Cease. And the reason why he got so much in a trade was because he was on a sweetheart of a 4 year deal. 

[ChiSox59]

36 minutes ago, nrockway said:

His 3 year average bWAR is 3.9 and made, I’m pretty sure, every scheduled start. At 9mil and 20mil, that’s an incredibly useful player. 

He’s have to win the Cy Young in 24 to make $20M in 25. More like $14-15M. It’s an absolute bargain. 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

1 minute ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I think fWAR overrates him because he strikes out a lot of guys. Chris Archer is another guy that I think is a good comp for Cease. And the reason why he got so much in a trade was because he was on a sweetheart of a 4 year deal. 

Well the contract is an important aspect of it. Cease will make less money over the next 2 seasons combined than a guy like Tyler Glasnow will make in 2024 alone. Combine that with the other factors I mentioned and it makes sense why Cease is a valued commodity. Is he flawed? Of course. But teams will still give up a haul for him I’d assume.

[baseball_gal_aly]

2 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Well the contract is an important aspect of it. Cease will make less money over the next 2 seasons combined than a guy like Tyler Glasnow will make in 2024 alone. Combine that with the other factors I mentioned and it makes sense why Cease is a valued commodity. Is he flawed? Of course. But teams will still give up a haul for him I’d assume.

I think they could get a package like most of you are talking about if they had more years of control. 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Well the contract is an important aspect of it. Cease will make less money over the next 2 seasons combined than a guy like Tyler Glasnow will make in 2024 alone. Combine that with the other factors I mentioned and it makes sense why Cease is a valued commodity. Is he flawed? Of course. But teams will still give up a haul for him I’d assume.

Other teams could probably make some sort of tweak and make him better than he has been too. A team like the Dodgers.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

2 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I think they could get a package like most of you are talking about if they had more years of control. 

2 years of arbitration level salaries is still plenty valuable considering free agent pitching contracts now. I mean Lance Lynn just got $10 million for 2024 and he was atrocious this past season.