Braves acquire Jarred Kelenic

[chitownsportsfan]

2 hours ago, Rowand44 said:

It's amazing how much I hate Kelenic and I don't even have anything against the guy.  

When he kicked the wall or whatever and missed a couple months was exactly when the Mariners went on their little run. He's got talent, he's also a complete head case.

A team like the Braves can probably keep him fairly productive; I have no faith the Sox would be able to keep him healthy, let alone productive.

[Balta1701]

38 minutes ago, Rusty_Kuntz said:

Why would you throw out a player's best year, a year that was only two seasons ago, when determining his value? The sample size is only 3 years, so 33% of the same size he was elite. 

His floor is probably 3 WAR on a good team. His ceiling is 6+ WAR. I think for a guy who will cost very little that's worth two top 100 prospects and another lighter piece. 

 

29 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Because he's not been close to that type of pitcher any other time in his career. It was fueled by an unsustainable strand rate. 

You wouldn't throw it out, but you would put it in context.

Dylan Cease was a 4 fWAR pitcher basically each of the last 3 years, but if you go into his numbers in more detail there's more to learn. If we go to baseball-reference WAR, he was a 6 WAR pitcher in 2022 and a 2.5 WAR pitcher in 2023 (below your 3 WAR floor), and I think there's actually more to these numbers than the Fangraphs version. 

In 2022, Dylan Cease was excellent because of his contact profile - his expected batting average against was in the top 4% of baseball. Pair that with his elite strikeout rate, and you have an elite pitcher even though he has an elevated walk rate.

In 2023, he lost over 1 mph from his fastball. While he kept his strikeout rate high, his contact profile went back to what it was in 2020 when he was a rookie, he gave up a lot of hard hits. People were saying in April that if Cease didn't find his fastball he was in trouble and I disagreed with them at the time - they were right! Cease lost velocity on his fastball, kept the strikeouts, but both his fastball and his slider were harder hit as a consequence. Fangraphs is actually filtering this out, because FIP stats normalize out variations in BABIP, but variations in BABIP caused by a different contact profile are actually real.

So, the context is - yes, he was truly elite in 2022, but he lost velocity in 2023 and that hurt him in a way that he has to pitch around. Other teams can see that, if we could see here in April that he'd be in trouble with the reduced velocity then other teams can see it too, so they have to ask themselves whether they're willing to pay the price for the 2022 version if they have a high chance of getting the 2023 version.

Also, the first time I typed this, my return key stopped working so I couldn't insert more paragraph spaces. WTF?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just now, bmags said:

board has veered wildly where now Kelenic is valued higher than Grissom which I find wild. What I find compelling about this trade is they gave up pretty much nothing. I wish we'd have traded for Wright. I wish we'd have had a part in this deal. 

I'm not valuing Kelenic higher but he's been through the grinder and showed some progress.

I haven't bothered to check into Grissom except to know he's RH. I think any team should always show a preference for LH players especially the Sox who it seems hardly ever have good LH position players. Worst in baseball history.

Can anyone actually name a Sox LH minor league OFer who became a regular ( non platoon) OFer with the Sox. How far do we have to go back ? Baines ?

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm not valuing Kelenic higher but he's been through the grinder and showed some progress.

I haven't bothered to check into Grissom except to know he's RH. I think any team should always show a preference for LH players especially the Sox who it seems hardly ever have good LH position players. Worst in baseball history.

Can anyone actually name a Sox LH minor league OFer who became a regular ( non platoon) OFer with the Sox. How far do we have to go back ? Baines ?

I've at least got Lance Johnson here. 

[Rusty_Kuntz]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

You wouldn't throw it out, but you would put it in context.

Dylan Cease was a 4 fWAR pitcher basically each of the last 3 years, but if you go into his numbers in more detail there's more to learn. If we go to baseball-reference WAR, he was a 6 WAR pitcher in 2022 and a 2.5 WAR pitcher in 2023 (below your 3 WAR floor), and I think there's actually more to these numbers than the Fangraphs version. 

In 2022, Dylan Cease was excellent because of his contact profile - his expected batting average against was in the top 4% of baseball. Pair that with his elite strikeout rate, and you have an elite pitcher even though he has an elevated walk rate.

In 2023, he lost over 1 mph from his fastball. While he kept his strikeout rate high, his contact profile went back to what it was in 2020 when he was a rookie, he gave up a lot of hard hits. People were saying in April that if Cease didn't find his fastball he was in trouble and I disagreed with them at the time - they were right! Cease lost velocity on his fastball, kept the strikeouts, but both his fastball and his slider were harder hit as a consequence. Fangraphs is actually filtering this out, because FIP stats normalize out variations in BABIP, but variations in BABIP caused by a different contact profile are actually real. So, the context is - yes, he was truly elite in 2022, but he lost velocity in 2023 and that hurt him in a way that he has to pitch around. Other teams can see that, if we could see here in April that he'd be in trouble with the reduced velocity then other teams can see it too, so they have to ask themselves whether they're willing to pay the price for the 2022 version if they have a high chance of getting the 2023 version.

If he was predicted to be his 2022 self for the next two years, his asking price would be much higher. 

Even if you get a mix of his three full seasons, his value should easily be two top 100 guys. 

If you assume he's going to be his 2023 version for the next two years maybe you are correct, but I'm not sure why anyone assumes that rather than assume that's his floor. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I've at least got Lance Johnson here. 

Didn't Lance come from The Cardinals ?

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm not valuing Kelenic higher but he's been through the grinder and showed some progress.

I haven't bothered to check into Grissom except to know he's RH. I think any team should always show a preference for LH players especially the Sox who it seems hardly ever have good LH position players. Worst in baseball history.

Can anyone actually name a Sox LH minor league OFer who became a regular ( non platoon) OFer with the Sox. How far do we have to go back ? Baines ?

Sox have started LH players a lot recently. It's definitely been a weakness, but I don't think we can be so tunnel visioned on one thing.

WHile he may be RH, he also showed excellent patience (12% BB rate in AAA this year) and great contact. And handled being a 20 year old that started in High A - getting promoted - and then delivering 120 wRC+ offense to a team in a pennant race his first year.

I think makeup wise this kid is probably a gamer. ANd he has shown his offense translates pretty well in MLB.

Now, I hate saying this, and feel free to laugh at me, but his poor defense was so apparent you can look at his fielding percentages, which were like .900 his first runs. While he was still not good from a fielding percentage at SS last year in Gwinnett, at 2b he showed a near perfect .992 fielding percentage in 250 some innings. Braves have indicated he made progress as well. We won't know. Requires scouting, which we don't have.

[ChiSox59]

37 minutes ago, fathom said:

Every indication is Kelenic stays in Atlanta

Then I don’t see how ATL is anything but like the 5th or 6th best option for Cease. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, Rusty_Kuntz said:

If he was predicted to be his 2022 self for the next two years, his asking price would be much higher. 

Even if you get a mix of his three full seasons, his value should easily be two top 100 guys. 

If you assume he's going to be his 2023 version for the next two years maybe you are correct, but I'm not sure why anyone assumes that rather than assume that's his floor. 

Because it's his latest season, losing velocity is more common than gaining it back and you can always get worse. So you would have to be damn sure 2023 is his floor and he stays off the floor for 2 years.

[ChiSox59]

14 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

It's only the LHH part of it.

also, Grissom doesn’t really have a position. He doesn’t exactly fit the bill of what getz has been preaching. He is either below average shortstop or we’re putting an infielder in the outfield again.

[Bob Sacamano]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

also, Grissom doesn’t really have a position. He doesn’t exactly fit the bill of what getz has been preaching. He is either below average shortstop or we’re putting an infielder in the outfield again.

I agree. Who knows though, AA is an aggressive GM.

[WestEddy]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Didn't Lance come from The Cardinals ?

John Cangelosi. 1986. Switch hitter. 

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

also, Grissom doesn’t really have a position. He doesn’t exactly fit the bill of what getz has been preaching. He is either below average shortstop or we’re putting an infielder in the outfield again.

He could play 2nd.

[Rusty_Kuntz]

12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Because it's his latest season, losing velocity is more common than gaining it back and you can always get worse. So you would have to be damn sure 2023 is his floor and he stays off the floor for 2 years.

I can see this, espeically if you think all the issue is from losing 1 mph of his fastball. But it's really not uncommon for pitchers to have down seasons mixed in throughout their careers. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

Sox have started LH players a lot recently. It's definitely been a weakness, but I don't think we can be so tunnel visioned on one thing.

WHile he may be RH, he also showed excellent patience (12% BB rate in AAA this year) and great contact. And handled being a 20 year old that started in High A - getting promoted - and then delivering 120 wRC+ offense to a team in a pennant race his first year.

I think makeup wise this kid is probably a gamer. ANd he has shown his offense translates pretty well in MLB.

Now, I hate saying this, and feel free to laugh at me, but his poor defense was so apparent you can look at his fielding percentages, which were like .900 his first runs. While he was still not good from a fielding percentage at SS last year in Gwinnett, at 2b he showed a near perfect .992 fielding percentage in 250 some innings. Braves have indicated he made progress as well. We won't know. Requires scouting, which we don't have.

Far be it for me to laugh at anyone . Not my style unless you berate me in any way 1st. Then we have a problem. You talk baseball I talk baseball back.

I don't have tunnel vision about LH guys it's just with the Sox it seems they forget that there are LH players in baseball. The game has built in advantages for LHers and their history of having good LH position players is the worst in MLB history as far as actuality like , hitting a baseball.

They've had their share of switch hitters but trust me on the lefty thing. The worst which kind of coincided with being the worst long standing franchise in baseball history when the Yankees were being the best with their ball park extremely conducive to taking advantage of LH  power hitters.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

John Cangelosi. 1986. Switch hitter. 

I don't count switch hitters . Has to be purely LH.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Rusty_Kuntz said:

If he was predicted to be his 2022 self for the next two years, his asking price would be much higher. 

Even if you get a mix of his three full seasons, his value should easily be two top 100 guys. 

If you assume he's going to be his 2023 version for the next two years maybe you are correct, but I'm not sure why anyone assumes that rather than assume that's his floor. 

I don't buy that. Two top 100 prospects, one of them really strong, is what people seem to be asking for Cease right now - that's about what I'd give up for 2022 Cease. That's not the price for a 3 WAR pitcher with 2 years of control, that's the price for a TOR pitcher. That's what I was saying we should hope for at the trade deadline last year, and if it wasn't there, you wait until the offseason and hope he has a better second half. That's the price for 2 years of a top 5 pitcher in your league.

He had a worse second half. He wasn't a top 5 pitcher or even a top of the rotation pitcher in 2023.

If we want to demand that price for him, I get doing so - but that's the exact thought process that has gotten me to say that he'll be with the Sox on opening day this year, because other teams can work through these numbers just as I did. To get that price for him coming off what he did in 2023, either someone will need to get desperate enough to overpay, or he will have to go out and prove that he's more 2022 Cease than 2023 Cease next year.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 minutes ago, Rusty_Kuntz said:

I can see this, espeically if you think all the issue is from losing 1 mph of his fastball. But it's really not uncommon for pitchers to have down seasons mixed in throughout their careers. 

I didn't even mention if he has any injury . Then the floor gets lower. He just doesn't have the track record yet to know exactly what he is. He's still on the high side of value but that can change frightfully quick. The Sox had a whole team of guys like that. Cease and Robert are the only ones left.

[Dick Allen]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't buy that. Two top 100 prospects, one of them really strong, is what people seem to be asking for Cease right now - that's about what I'd give up for 2022 Cease. That's not the price for a 3 WAR pitcher with 2 years of control, that's the price for a TOR pitcher. That's what I was saying we should hope for at the trade deadline last year, and if it wasn't there, you wait until the offseason and hope he has a better second half. That's the price for 2 years of a top 5 pitcher in your league.

He had a worse second half. He wasn't a top 5 pitcher or even a top of the rotation pitcher in 2023.

If we want to demand that price for him, I get doing so - but that's the exact thought process that has gotten me to say that he'll be with the Sox on opening day this year, because other teams can work through these numbers just as I did. To get that price for him coming off what he did in 2023, either someone will need to get desperate enough to overpay, or he will have to go out and prove that he's more 2022 Cease than 2023 Cease next year.

Pretend the White Sox were trying to acquire Dylan Cease. Then you would have a totally different opinion of what he would cost. Take that price, and then take the lowball you think he's worth because he wears a White sox uniform, and split the difference. That's probably pretty close to what the White Sox will get.

[Rusty_Kuntz]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't buy that. Two top 100 prospects, one of them really strong, is what people seem to be asking for Cease right now - that's about what I'd give up for 2022 Cease. That's not the price for a 3 WAR pitcher with 2 years of control, that's the price for a TOR pitcher. That's what I was saying we should hope for at the trade deadline last year, and if it wasn't there, you wait until the offseason and hope he has a better second half. That's the price for 2 years of a top 5 pitcher in your league.

He had a worse second half. He wasn't a top 5 pitcher or even a top of the rotation pitcher in 2023.

If we want to demand that price for him, I get doing so - but that's the exact thought process that has gotten me to say that he'll be with the Sox on opening day this year, because other teams can work through these numbers just as I did. To get that price for him coming off what he did in 2023, either someone will need to get desperate enough to overpay, or he will have to go out and prove that he's more 2022 Cease than 2023 Cease next year.

I think most people would give up more than that for 2022 Cease. 

I doubt he'll be on the Sox on opening day. 

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Pretend the White Sox were trying to acquire Dylan Cease. Then you would have a totally different opinion of what he would cost. Take that price, and then take the lowball you think he's worth because he wears a White sox uniform, and split the difference. That's probably pretty close to what the White Sox will get.

And yet, will you do that with what you think his return should be?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Pretend the White Sox were trying to acquire Dylan Cease. .

I'd be willing to give up Jacob Gonzalez, Jared Kelley and Carlos Perez.  Maybe Gavin Sheets but they would have to throw in another minor leaguer. 

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Rusty_Kuntz said:

I think most people would give up more than that for 2022 Cease. 

I doubt he'll be on the Sox on opening day. 

True - but at the time he had 3 years of control. Now he has only 2 years of control, which you have to take into account as well. 

[Rusty_Kuntz]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

True - but at the time he had 3 years of control. Now he has only 2 years of control, which you have to take into account as well. 

I meant if he was coming off that type of season right now. But, fair. 

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And yet, will you do that with what you think his return should be?

 

I think he's worth more than you think. I also think he's worth less than you think if it were the other way around and the Sox were trying to get someone of his ilk. I'll take what Billy Beane got for 1 year of the the Shark.  i'm not too stuck on top 100 or whatever. The real top 100 list when these guys actually get to the major leagues or fail, will look pretty different from what it looks like the day Cease gets traded. Getz just can't mess it up. It's pretty much his only bullet.