Braves acquire Jarred Kelenic

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, Quin said:

I feel like I need to share this video which outlines the defense failing Cease against the Dodgers:

 

The rest of it was great too !

[Quin]

The fun thing about these Cease threads is that we're gonna have people eating crow regardless of return.

[baseball_gal_aly]

I don't necessarily think Cease sucks. I just don't think he's a TOR pitcher and if I were an opposing GM I wouldn't pay the price for him. I'd tell Getz, fine keep him then. 

He doesn't go deep enough into games for me and he walks too many batters and generally, outside of 2022, gives up too many runs. 

He's a fine mid-rotation guy. Returns should be expected as such. Think of what Giolito got as a rental and that's kinda what I'd expect for Cease. 1 back end T100 guy and a few interesting players that are of the Nastrini/Bush mold. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by baseball_gal_aly

[ptatc]

31 minutes ago, bmags said:

That’s foolish. His mvp year put them in a difficult spot with sky high arbitration despite two barely playable years.

 

All I know is he had 2 really bad years there prior to excelling with the Cubs. Not sure what the arbitration had to do with his performance. 

[GreenSox]

4 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Could it be possible that Cease is viewed a lot less favorably by the other 29 clubs than he is on this board? 

Could be that teams are only willing to give up one back end T100 guy as the centerpiece and the rest of the deal will be lottery tickets. 

What I'm getting at is that Maybe Cease's value is closer to the deals that Bowden suggested for the Sox. 

Could be. If that’s the case, just hold on to him for a year and a half, then package with a reliever in July ‘25 and we can get that return.  That’s basically what we got for rents of Lopez/giilito.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t think they took on $25M to $30M if bad money to then flip Kelenic for a cost controlled Cease.  This is them buying a potential cheap LF solution for the next five years and making it easier to deal Grissom for SP help.

I just don’t know how I’d feel about Grissom.  His bat is somewhat interesting, but he has no ideal defensive position.  Perhaps he can get better at 2B, but he was dreadful there last year.  As part of larger package I’d take a shot on, but not sure I’d feel good with him being even the second most important piece.

I don't THINK so either. It's a decent way to built controllable depth with a substantial amount of upside if it can be tapped.

But I can also see it happening because well, nothing is happening atm.

Edited December 5, 2023 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
depth not debt ?

[baseball_gal_aly]

1 minute ago, GreenSox said:

Could be. If that’s the case, just hold on to him for a year and a half, then package with a reliever in July ‘25 and we can get that return.  That’s basically what we got for rents of Lopez/giilito.

I honestly think they can get more for him at the TDL if he's having a good season than they can right now. 

[fathom]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

All I know is he had 2 really bad years there prior to excelling with the Cubs. Not sure what the arbitration had to do with his performance. 

His shoulder was messed up and he didn’t get to rehab properly 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

 

You wouldn't throw it out, but you would put it in context.

Dylan Cease was a 4 fWAR pitcher basically each of the last 3 years, but if you go into his numbers in more detail there's more to learn. If we go to baseball-reference WAR, he was a 6 WAR pitcher in 2022 and a 2.5 WAR pitcher in 2023 (below your 3 WAR floor), and I think there's actually more to these numbers than the Fangraphs version. 

In 2022, Dylan Cease was excellent because of his contact profile - his expected batting average against was in the top 4% of baseball. Pair that with his elite strikeout rate, and you have an elite pitcher even though he has an elevated walk rate.

In 2023, he lost over 1 mph from his fastball. While he kept his strikeout rate high, his contact profile went back to what it was in 2020 when he was a rookie, he gave up a lot of hard hits. People were saying in April that if Cease didn't find his fastball he was in trouble and I disagreed with them at the time - they were right! Cease lost velocity on his fastball, kept the strikeouts, but both his fastball and his slider were harder hit as a consequence. Fangraphs is actually filtering this out, because FIP stats normalize out variations in BABIP, but variations in BABIP caused by a different contact profile are actually real.

So, the context is - yes, he was truly elite in 2022, but he lost velocity in 2023 and that hurt him in a way that he has to pitch around. Other teams can see that, if we could see here in April that he'd be in trouble with the reduced velocity then other teams can see it too, so they have to ask themselves whether they're willing to pay the price for the 2022 version if they have a high chance of getting the 2023 version.

Also, the first time I typed this, my return key stopped working so I couldn't insert more paragraph spaces. WTF?

You keep blaming velocity but his issues were related to general command and the changed shape of his slider.  His reduced velocity was still 10th amongst qualified starters.  His fastball was 3rd overall in Stuff+ despite the reduced velocity.  However, there was a material change in his extension vs. 2022 and it’s very sensible to believe that he was dealing with some mechanical issues that altered both the shape of his slider and his ability to command it.

Other teams with competent Analytics and Biometrics departments can see all this and probably already know what tweaks are needed to make a return to form.  Will he ever post a 2.20 ERA again?  Probably not.  Will teams pay up for the 2022 version of him?  Almost certainly not.  But your theory he’s as valuable as Giolito was just a few months ago is plainly absurd.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Rusty_Kuntz said:

If he was predicted to be his 2022 self for the next two years, his asking price would be much higher. 

Even if you get a mix of his three full seasons, his value should easily be two top 100 guys. 

If you assume he's going to be his 2023 version for the next two years maybe you are correct, but I'm not sure why anyone assumes that rather than assume that's his floor. 

Because Balta’s projection model is FY = PY x 1.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Chicago White Sox

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Yes we are. 

Cease has pitched in parts of 5 seasons

Are we now pretending like 2019 and 2020 didn't happen because they weren't full seasons? 

In modern baseball, people don’t go back four or five years (especially when a raw SP was still developing) and put any merit in those numbers.  2021 to 2023 is really the most relevant window for him and as I mentioned previously he ranks 8th in fWAR during that time.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

With all due respect, this is why you are not a GM. You are acting like 2022 was the only good year Cease had. He had 3.5+ fWAR in both 2021 and 2023 as well. He’s also durable, controlled for 2 more seasons, has good stuff, and is not expensive. Those are all important factors that you are overlooking.

There are precarious few starters who are as durable (1st in starts since 2021) and as talented (5th in Stuff+ since 2021) as Dylan Cease.  Teams aren’t stupid and know this.  In fact, this is like when all the smart teams wanted to go pillage the Pirates for their talented but unrefined pitching talent (Cole, Musgrove, etc).  The difference is that Cease has a track of proven success while also showing the dominance that he is capable of when it’s all going right.  When he’s going to cost you the same Kenta Maeda that’s incredibly valuable.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Can we start Balta and Gal their own Cease trade value thread where they can debate whether Getz takes sunflower seeds, roisin or chewing gum in return for Cease? 

Bring back Parkman from the dead and let him partake as well!

[baseball_gal_aly]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

In modern baseball, people don’t go back four or five years (especially when a raw SP was still developing) and put any merit in those numbers.  2021 to 2023 is really the most relevant window for him and as I mentioned previously he ranks 8th in fWAR during that time.

I still don't think his 2021 was all that good other than the strikeouts. pitching fWAR overrates strikeouts. 

I think BP's DRA- is a better metric tbh. 

I also don't understand why everyone thinks that Cease is just going to get his velocity back and it's not going to continue to decline. Remember what happened with Giolito? 

Edited December 4, 2023 by baseball_gal_aly

[Chicago White Sox]

28 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I don't necessarily think Cease sucks. I just don't think he's a TOR pitcher and if I were an opposing GM I wouldn't pay the price for him. I'd tell Getz, fine keep him then. 

He doesn't go deep enough into games for me and he walks too many batters and generally, outside of 2022, gives up too many runs. 

He's a fine mid-rotation guy. Returns should be expected as such. Think of what Giolito got as a rental and that's kinda what I'd expect for Cease. 1 back end T100 guy and a few interesting players that are of the Nastrini/Bush mold. 

Your theory is 1/3 of a year of Giolito is worth the same as two years of a better pitcher on the cheap plus the high probability of draft pick compensation once he leaves via free agency?

[baseball_gal_aly]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Your theory is 1/3 of a year of Giolito is worth the same as two years of a better pitcher on the cheap plus the high probability of draft pick compensation once he leaves via free agency?

I think that the Giolito deal was a drastic overpayment by a desperate club. 

I also think that they could get more for Cease in July than this winter. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by baseball_gal_aly

[bmags]

Now on the other side of the argument of Is Dylan Cease a very good pitcher, to which I say Yes, I do still feel like I would not trade for him unless I was a team that needed more guarantee of winning their division, and I'm less convinced of him as a "he gets us over the top in the playoffs".

If I'm Baltimore, I have the kind of Dodgers depth that disaster proofs your team, which is a long way to helping guarantee a playoff berth.

Which Is why I keep thinking, if I was them, would I rather offload a haul of that "blocked" depth for Dylan Cease, or just wait until July to see what mercenary, FA pitcher is on a hot streak and can be gotten cheaper.

Now that isn't really ATL, to me. They surely can survive the year with that offense. But that they may view Cease as that kinda guy is a good sign.

Anyway I'd rather just do what Texas did last year, personally.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said:

People ar acting like he was end of career John Danks.  

Or Jim Parque...

[baseball_gal_aly]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Or Jim Parque...

this is hyperbole

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

His shoulder was messed up and he didn’t get to rehab properly 

It not true that he didn't get to rehab it properly. 

Even if it were true, that's not a couple of years worth. 

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, ptatc said:

It not true that he didn't get to rehab it properly. 

Even if it were true, that's not a couple of years worth. 

Or he pushed himself to return too early...?  Feeling the weight of expectations from the 2019 MVP.

[ptatc]

25 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Or he pushed himself to return too early...?  Feeling the weight of expectations from the 2019 MVP.

Players do have a responsility to carry though with programs set for them by the AT for rehab and the strength and conditioning team for off season work. 

[zisk]

Kelenic improved quite a bit last year. How good can someone get while striking out more than 35%

of the time is the 64 dollar question.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, zisk said:

Kelenic improved quite a bit last year. How good can someone get while striking out more than 35%

of the time is the 64 dollar question.

Maturity-wise he failed the final test kicking that Gatorade cooler and missing two months in the heat of a pennant race.

There were already red flags all over the place within the organization.

[SCCWS]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Maturity-wise he failed the final test kicking that Gatorade cooler and missing two months in the heat of a pennant race.

There were already red flags all over the place within the organization.

That probably negates  Morosi 's take of trading Mariner pitching for Robert since they just traded 2 pitches to Atlanta. Looks like he didn't read yesterday's paper or it was an older article.