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Fangraph's write up on WS system


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New GM Chris Getz was promoted from within, so even though the org will likely change somewhat as it works to execute his vision for the club, expect more continuity here than typically accompanies a regime change. For instance, Getz told Eric at the GM Meetings that the White Sox would likely alter their approach to international scouting, which for the last many years has seen them save pool space to target Cuban players who hit the market late. For too long the White Sox have tied one metaphorical hand behind their back by largely ignoring amateur Dominican players, and it seems like that will soon change.

In the domestic draft, director Mike Shirley has now been in place for a couple of years. In addition to the White Sox targeting high-profile players from the Midwest during his tenure, they’ve prioritized pitching prospects with premium breaking stuff, drafted a lot of scrappy little college infielders in the middle rounds, and often found a way to mix a huge-framed power hitter in there somewhere. There has been no real pattern at the very top of Chicago’s last few drafts. Jacob Gonzalez is a model-friendly prospect because of his age and stats, while Montgomery (old for his class) and Schultz (a prep arm) were toolsy, projectable high schoolers. Schultz became the first high school arm the team had selected in the first round in over 20 years.

The White Sox pro department got to target players via trade last summer and again this offseason. Chicago has so far taken a quantity-first approach to this rebuild, perhaps more because this system is pretty thin and they feel like it’s a prudent way to get the ball rolling than as a reflection of some long-term strategy or overarching philosophy.

Ultimately, Jerry Reinsdorf is in charge. People in baseball consider him a bit meddlesome and think he is a bit more involved than is ideal, and sometimes believe his fierce loyalty prevents him from moving on from people or processes that aren’t helping the team. At times under Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams, it felt like there were too many cooks in this kitchen. Getz’s track record of developing players in his previous role was mixed, partly because the franchise was so far behind conceptually and technologically when they hired him, but some of the communication breakdowns and behind-the-scenes drama should go away now that the GM is a person who had to effectively communicate across a whole department as a core aspect of their job.

 

Edited by DirtySox
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40 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I thought the writeup on Gonzalez was far more encouraging than the grades. Seems he was putting in work in the fall which is good. 

I don't see nearly the negativity from the outside sources.  I am curious to see this kid play a full season of ball so that we can start to sort through whether this is a faction bitter over losing on draft day, or if he really is a pre-made bust.

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Again, the on-base skills and power here carry so much water that we think Montgomery will still probably be an above-average everyday corner infielder (unless he moves to first base), but this evaluation is probably a shade below the general industry consensus based on our eyeball scouting.

How dare you Fangraphs.

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chicago-white-sox-top-27-prospects/

FG Listed Position / Player (Current Age) Current Level Estimated MLB Promotion Year

Position Players

  • 55: Above Average Regular (2.5-3.3 fWAR):
    • 3B Colson Montgomery (21.9) AA 2025
  • 50: Average Regular (1.6-2.4 fWAR):
    • 3B Bryan Ramos (21.9) AA 2024
    • C Edgar Quero (20.8) AA 2025
  • 45+: Low End Regular or Platoon Player (0.8-1.5 fWAR):
    • SS Jacob Gonzalez (21.7) A 2026
  • 40+: Bench Player
    • SS Ryan Burrowes (19.4) R 2027
    • C Calvin Harris (22.2) A 2026
    • RF Wilfred Veras (21.2) AA 2026
    • 1B George Wolkow (18.0) R 2028
    • CF jacob Burke (22.9) A+ 2027
  • 35+: Up & Down
    • 2B Javier Mogollon (18.2) R 2028
    • 3B Eduardo Herrera (17.3) R 2030

Pitchers

  • 50: #4 Starter 4.00 FIP
    • SP Noah Schultz (20.5) A 2027
  • 45+: #4-#5 Starter 4.20 FIP
    • SIRP Nick Nastrini (23.9) AAA 2025
    • SP Jake Eder (25.3) AA 2024
    • SP Jonathan Cannon (23.5) AA 2025
    • SP Cristian Mena (21.1) AAA 2025
  • 40+: Backend Starters 5.00 FIP
    • SIRP Alex Speas (25.9) MLB 2024
    • SIRP Jordan Leasure (25.4) AAA 2024
    • SP Peyton Pallette (22.7) A 2026
    • MIRP Shane Drohan (25.1) AAA 2024
    • MIRP Ky Bush (24.2) AA 2025
    • SIRP Grant Taylor (21.7) R 2026
    • MIRP Sean Burke (24.1) AAA 2025
    • SIRP Seth Keener (22.3) A 2026
  • 35+: Up & Down
    • SP Tanner McDougal (20.8) A 2026
    • SP Maximo Martinez (19.6) R 2026
    • SIRP Eric Adler (23.3) A+ 2026

 

Other Prospects of Note

Sleeper Arms with a Plus Breaking Ball

Well-Known Fallen Prospects

Bat-to-Ball Sleepers

Developmental Arms

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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2 minutes ago, Quin said:

Now they are one.

Thanks for moving. Since several players are projected to be with the team in 2024, I wasn't sure where to place the article. I liked reading the neutral perspective, and while there aren't many major contributors based on the current FV scores, they are not set in stone. Hoping the Sox continue to bring in quality external people to better select and develop players over the next few seasons. It's the only legitimate path to creating the team we all want in Chicago.

 

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This is the best part from the Fangraphs article:

While this farm system still isn’t among the strongest in baseball, it’s significantly deeper than it was a year ago, strengthened by several key acquisitions at last year’s trade deadline, including Edgar Quero, Nick Nastrini, Jake Eder and Ky Bush. That trend will likely continue if the Sox trade Dylan Cease. Chicago has as many players with the potential for high-end impact — Colson Montgomery, Bryan Ramos, Noah Schultz, maybe Eder if his velo comes back — as a lot of the top systems, though all of those guys missed time due to injury in 2023. New GM Chris Getz was promoted from within, so even though the org will likely change somewhat as it works to execute his vision for the club, expect more continuity here than typically accompanies a regime change. For instance, Getz told Eric at the GM Meetings that the White Sox would likely alter their approach to international scouting, which for the last many years has seen them save pool space to target Cuban players who hit the market late. For too long the White Sox have tied one metaphorical hand behind their back by largely ignoring amateur Dominican players, and it seems like that will soon change. In the domestic draft, director Mike Shirley has now been in place for a couple of years. In addition to the White Sox targeting high-profile players from the Midwest during his tenure, they’ve prioritized pitching prospects with premium breaking stuff, drafted a lot of scrappy little college infielders in the middle rounds, and often found a way to mix a huge-framed power hitter in there somewhere. There has been no real pattern at the very top of Chicago’s last few drafts. Jacob Gonzalez is a model-friendly prospect because of his age and stats, while Montgomery (old for his class) and Schultz (a prep arm) were toolsy, projectable high schoolers. Schultz became the first high school arm the team had selected in the first round in over 20 years. The White Sox pro department got to target players via trade last summer and again this offseason. Chicago has so far taken a quantity-first approach to this rebuild, perhaps more because this system is pretty thin and they feel like it’s a prudent way to get the ball rolling than as a reflection of some long-term strategy or overarching philosophy. Ultimately, Jerry Reinsdorf is in charge. People in baseball consider him a bit meddlesome and think he is a bit more involved than is ideal, and sometimes believe his fierce loyalty prevents him from moving on from people or processes that aren’t helping the team. At times under Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams, it felt like there were too many cooks in this kitchen. Getz’s track record of developing players in his previous role was mixed, partly because the franchise was so far behind conceptually and technologically when they hired him, but some of the communication breakdowns and behind-the-scenes drama should go away now that the GM is a person who had to effectively communicate across a whole department as a core aspect of their job.

 

The stuff on international market is interesting and a welcome change. I'm curious to see if Marco Paddy will be the director after this year. 

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41 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

 

The stuff on international market is interesting and a welcome change. I'm curious to see if Marco Paddy will be the director after this year. 

Is Paddy a problem?  I mean, I get the impression they don't allow him to spend enough to sign these top Dominican guys.  How many superstars have we heard that we were the 2nd highest bid for them?  And if we were forcing him to hold funds open for the Cubans, it explains why he couldn't bid up.

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33 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Is Paddy a problem?  I mean, I get the impression they don't allow him to spend enough to sign these top Dominican guys.  How many superstars have we heard that we were the 2nd highest bid for them?  And if we were forcing him to hold funds open for the Cubans, it explains why he couldn't bid up.

I don’t know. It’s definitely the job of a younger man in most cases though. The Sox can be willing to spend on teenage Dominicans all they want but it won’t matter until the 2027, 2028 signing periods at this point 

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Good read, thanks for sharing. Surprised Popeye didn't make the top 27 but he's probably just not as good as I imagine he is. Doubly surprised Adam Hackenberg isn't in the article at all, he seems to me like the most underrated guy in the system. defensively, I bet he could start at the major league level next season and his bat improved drastically in 2023. 

I think an interesting question to ask is what to do about Ramos/Montgomery. It's inevitable that Montgomery will move to 3B so where does that leave Ramos? Still hoping we can get a legitimate middle infielder for Cease, Masyn Winn or Ceddanne Rafaela would be my preferred choices of the teams that have been rumored to be in on Cease. 

Edited by nrockway
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18 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Good read, thanks for sharing. Surprised Popeye didn't make the top 27 but he's probably just not as good as I imagine he is. Doubly surprised Adam Hackenberg isn't in the article at all, he seems to me like the most underrated guy in the system. defensively, I bet he could start at the major league level next season and his bat improved drastically in 2023. 

I think an interesting question to ask is what to do about Ramos/Montgomery. It's inevitable that Montgomery will move to 3B so where does that leave Ramos? Still hoping we can get a legitimate middle infielder for Cease, Masyn Winn or Ceddanne Rafaela would be my preferred choices of the teams that have been rumored to be in on Cease. 

The question is actually answered by the fact that they haven't moved him yet - wait until he forces you to move him.

Trea Turner was pretty weak defensively last year, but his bat is strong enough that he still plays as a very strong SS. If Colson's bat plays and he's a slightly below average SS, you keep him there and just deal with it, score more runs to make up for plays that aren't made.

If you bring him up in '24-25 and he's just awful at SS, then you ask why no coach said to move him while in the minors, but you move him then. If Ramos is still on a path to the big leagues, maybe you work him in at DH, maybe you shift his position, maybe you're in a good enough position to consider a trade, maybe Colson gets hurt and you're happy you have the depth.

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20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The question is actually answered by the fact that they haven't moved him yet - wait until he forces you to move him.

Trea Turner was pretty weak defensively last year, but his bat is strong enough that he still plays as a very strong SS. If Colson's bat plays and he's a slightly below average SS, you keep him there and just deal with it, score more runs to make up for plays that aren't made.

If you bring him up in '24-25 and he's just awful at SS, then you ask why no coach said to move him while in the minors, but you move him then. If Ramos is still on a path to the big leagues, maybe you work him in at DH, maybe you shift his position, maybe you're in a good enough position to consider a trade, maybe Colson gets hurt and you're happy you have the depth.

It's a good point about Turner and I don't know what people were saying about him as a prospect, but I imagine since he was a bit smaller and much speedier than Montgomery, he projected better as a middle infielder. I guess give Montgomery a shot because who else is playing there next season, but he was bad defensively at AA and I don't see his mobility improving as he gets older/stronger. Which is to say, I'd be stunned if he was even 'slightly below average' defensively at SS. Obviously it would be great if he sticks there, but I'd feel more confident about the team with a defense-first SS who can hit the ball a little bit. Maybe that could be Gonzalez, but I like those two guys I mentioned (especially Winn) because they smashed AAA pitching and look like they could be plus defenders at SS or 2B. Rafaela could play the outfield too, I like the versatility in contrast to having 13 first basemen and a center fielder on the team.

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6 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

This can't be true. I was told he's a bust already. 

Fair enough Jimmy....I will now refrain from ragging on him until we see what he can do in his first full minor league season.

I'm glad he is working hard on things to get better. 

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2 hours ago, Downtown Brown said:

Colson to 1B...wowsers. If thats the case we need a defensive cordinator on the scouting side. Maybe bellichek comes in an consults? in prep for taking over the bears next year. 

Absolute fiasco…will have to hit like Olerud/Grace+++ at that spot to put up 3-4 fWAR numbers.

Can’t look more like Ryan Sweeney.

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15 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Fair enough Jimmy....I will now refrain from ragging on him until we see what he can do in his first full minor league season.

I'm glad he is working hard on things to get better. 

I think it’s fair to criticize the pick and even call it bad given the profile, but the claims that Gonzalez is already a bust are obviously way too premature.  The ceiling is very disappointing for a first round pick and there are real concerns that must be addressed, but he also some nice defensive skills (despite the lack of speed) and great plate discipline.  With some tweaks, there is a very real path to being an average everyday 2B.  Again, not overly exciting and no guarantee there, but there is some reason to believe he grow into a useful major leaguer.

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Again, the on-base skills and power here carry so much water that we think Montgomery will still probably be an above-average everyday corner infielder (unless he moves to first base), but this evaluation is probably a shade below the general industry consensus based on our eyeball scouting.

4 hours ago, Downtown Brown said:

Colson to 1B...wowsers. If thats the case we need a defensive cordinator on the scouting side. Maybe bellichek comes in an consults? in prep for taking over the bears next year. 

Fangraphs projects him as a third baseman, not first.

 

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