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Fangraph's write up on WS system


Greg_Walker

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4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Absolute fiasco…will have to hit like Olerud/Grace+++ at that spot to put up 3-4 fWAR numbers.

Can’t look more like Ryan Sweeney.

WTF? Have you even watched Montgomery play?  a) There's a pretty good shot he stays at short early in his career, and he'd be a plus 3b. b) Ryan Sweeney, had no power Olerud and Grace had very little power. Montgomery has plus power that he is just growing into now. I hope to God you're being sarcastic.

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3 hours ago, Timmy U said:

WTF? Have you even watched Montgomery play?  a) There's a pretty good shot he stays at short early in his career, and he'd be a plus 3b. b) Ryan Sweeney, had no power Olerud and Grace had very little power. Montgomery has plus power that he is just growing into now. I hope to God you're being sarcastic.

Hyperbole and overreaction is good for riling up the masses…

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3 hours ago, Downtown Brown said:

they say first is possible! and its not just range, but range and hands. I doubt it as well, I picked him as one of my two downtown dominators this year. 

Technically first is possible for most, if not all position players. They said he still projects as an above-average regular, even at a corner, unless he moved to first. 

Edited by Sleepy Harold
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On 1/27/2024 at 12:18 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

I think it’s fair to criticize the pick and even call it bad given the profile, but the claims that Gonzalez is already a bust are obviously way too premature.  The ceiling is very disappointing for a first round pick and there are real concerns that must be addressed, but he also some nice defensive skills (despite the lack of speed) and great plate discipline.  With some tweaks, there is a very real path to being an average everyday 2B.  Again, not overly exciting and no guarantee there, but there is some reason to believe he grow into a useful major leaguer.

You're calling it a bad pick but not a bust pick?  What's the difference?

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53 minutes ago, oldsox said:

You're calling it a bad pick but not a bust pick?  What's the difference?

Gonzalez hasn't even played an entire season of minor league ball, so calling him a bust this early would be premature and ridiculous. You can say it was a bad pick because of his profile - slow running shortstop who wasn't hitting for a lot of power in his cup of coffee post draft (which, as James has pointed out, is a grain of salt) and because you had toolsy players like Arjun Nimmala and Enrique Bradfield on the board on the time.

But if he comes out the gate roaring to start 2024, suddenly all bust labels are going to start being shed.

It's like saying Jake Burger was a bad pick at the time given his profile. You could have definitely said a bust after a few years. But now the bust moniker is silly.

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3 hours ago, Quin said:

Gonzalez hasn't even played an entire season of minor league ball, so calling him a bust this early would be premature and ridiculous. You can say it was a bad pick because of his profile - slow running shortstop who wasn't hitting for a lot of power in his cup of coffee post draft (which, as James has pointed out, is a grain of salt) and because you had toolsy players like Arjun Nimmala and Enrique Bradfield on the board on the time.

But if he comes out the gate roaring to start 2024, suddenly all bust labels are going to start being shed.

It's like saying Jake Burger was a bad pick at the time given his profile. You could have definitely said a bust after a few years. But now the bust moniker is silly.

This is all true, but if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle, that's true too. I hope Gonzo gets hotter than s%*#, but right now, he looks like a bust. We can say that.

Edited by chitownsportsfan
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16 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

This is all true, but if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle, that's true too. I hope Gonzo gets hotter than s%*#, but right now, he looks like a bust. We can say that.

This is the thinking that is what leads people to writing off Coby White, Lauri, Ayo and Wendell Carter early in their careers. You could even argue Jimmy was in that group, but he had a lot more leeway as a roleplayer until he blew up in year four.

If you're calling a player a bust after one partial season of minor league ball in their draft year, you shouldn't bother following prospects because you just want instant gratification.

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47 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

This is all true, but if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle, that's true too. I hope Gonzo gets hotter than s%*#, but right now, he looks like a bust. We can say that.

You can say whatever you want. It's still nonsense though. 

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1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

edit: who gives a s%*#.

A three-year performer in the SEC, González has a profile without a signature carrying tool, but he’s above average at just about everything except for speed. He maintained an OPS better than .960 and wRC+ topping 125 in each of his three seasons at Ole Miss, with more walks than strikeouts.

González had a 96th-percentile Hard Hit rate and a 70th-percentile Barrel rate. His batted ball profile was great in Oxford. He hit well against both fastballs and breaking balls, but a really impressive nugget was his ability to make a lot of contact on right-handed changeups. González also handled lefties (.948 OPS) just about as well as righties (.990 OPS), pulled the ball in the air well, and handled the velo of the SEC well. He should be a high-floor, quick mover through the system, and I think this is what intrigued the front office.

https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/7/31/23804346/2023-draft-review-collegiate-draftees-picks-1-4-6-jacob-gonzalez-grant-taylor-seth-keener-harris

 

Not having a single carrying tool in a game that's increasingly valuing speed/athleticism...it seems SEC/closer to the big leagues and left-handed were the main criteria relied upon here.

And the funny thing is that the SEC, despite its sterling reputation for athletics, has only produced 2 Hall of Famers in Frank Thomas and Todd Helton.

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