Outside the Box: Trade Cease+ for Daulton Varsho+

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, JoeC said:

Trying to get this team to compete in 2024 is a pipe dream.

The moves right now should try to optimize 2026 and 2027 WAR. To me, acquiring Varsho would be paying a premium for "immediate" WAR.

The whole structure of a Cease deal is to give up X amount of 2024 and 2025 WAR for 2*X or 3*X potential WAR in 2025 ~ 2027. Therefore, to me, any trade like this doesn't make sense, where the biggest chunk of WAR you get in return doesn't look that much different in magnitude and peak year than the piece you're giving up.

There is literally no good reason to spend actual assets trying to compete in 2024.  Sure we need to fill out a roster, find some guys who can fill some innings and not kill the guys you want to be around long term, or could have value as trade assets.  But other than that we KNOW this team is a dumpster fire.  There is zero reason to think about 2024 as anything other than adding for down the road.

If we want to talk about fantasy trades, we should be targeting as much volume and quality as we can for 2026 and beyond.  Target starting pitching and up the middle players.  I am not going to pretend to know other teams systems, but high ceilings and skill positions have to be top targets.  The goal is to find WAR to replace Cease, down the road, with a shooting for the stars view of finding 3 starters, including at least 1 star player.

[JoeC]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is literally no good reason to spend actual assets trying to compete in 2024.  Sure we need to fill out a roster, find some guys who can fill some innings and not kill the guys you want to be around long term, or could have value as trade assets.  But other than that we KNOW this team is a dumpster fire.  There is zero reason to think about 2024 as anything other than adding for down the road.

If we want to talk about fantasy trades, we should be targeting as much volume and quality as we can for 2026 and beyond.  Target starting pitching and up the middle players.  I am not going to pretend to know other teams systems, but high ceilings and skill positions have to be top targets.  The goal is to find WAR to replace Cease, down the road, with a shooting for the stars view of finding 3 starters, including at least 1 star player.

Exactly.

Thus, unless Varsho becomes an immediate flip candidate, he's a meaningless and useless acquisition... and i doubt a player of that caliber is traded 3 times in a single offseason.

[caulfield12]

https://www.fishstripes.com/2021/1/25/22247364/christian-yelich-trade-brewers-marlins-results-3-years-later

This is arguably one of the best trades of the last decade.

So obviously...rather than Cease, the majority of teams are going to want prospects back.

In fact, the lack of top line prospects is what kept the Sox from trading for Miggy Cabrera and changed the course of the AL Central similarly to what Yelich did for the Brewers.

The idea was to find an undervalued asset who had the capability of exploding.

Ideally, Varsho would be closer to having just 2 years of service time...rather than merely three increasingly expensive years remaining.

Then the second key is being able to afford a generous enough extension to be enticing.

And you're arguably MUCH better off giving that extension to a player at Varsho's CURRENT age than 30/31.

You have to lock in ages 27-29/30 and not the decline years.

So back to the drawing board trying to find that future star every single GM is on the look out for.

And Christian Yelich is the blueprint...as he was a rising but erratic youngster with worlds of potential but not a future HoFer already.

This is another quite similar situation to Cease now...albeit Greinke with more like Dylan Cy 2022 version value.

(On December 19, 2010, the Kansas City Royals traded Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt to the Milwaukee Brewers for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi.)

Finally, not sure Getz has the cojones or desired prospects to even pull it off in first place.  Clearing out half of the top line talent from a top heavy and still quite thin system would be a career killing risk.

 

 

Conversely, reflect back on Todd Ritchie for Kip Wells Josh Fogg Sean Lowe...an example where the acquired asset blew up in the wrong way and wiped out future depth that could have filled out a rotation for the better part of a decade.

Or Nick Swisher.  Or Jeff Samardzija. Nick Swisher is the closest example of what that trade would look like.  Obviously fell on the wrong side of that deal as well.

 

Just desperately want to jump start this thing with some exciting positional talent we can watch sooner rather than 2-3 years from now.

IMO, far better to have that young player on board to launch a new stadium as well.

 

Edited January 29 by caulfield12

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.fishstripes.com/2021/1/25/22247364/christian-yelich-trade-brewers-marlins-results-3-years-later

This is arguably one of the best trades of the last decade.

So obviously...rather than Cease, the majority of teams are going to want prospects back.

In fact, the lack of top line prospects is what kept the Sox from trading for Miggy Cabrera and changed the course of the AL Central similarly to what Yelich did for the Brewers.

The idea was to find an undervalued asset who had the capability of exploding.

Ideally, Varsho would be closer to having just 2 years of service time...rather than merely three increasingly expensive years remaining.

Then the second key is being able to afford a generous enough extension to be enticing.

And you're arguably MUCH better off giving that extension to a player at Varsho's CURRENT age than 30/31.

You have to lock in ages 27-29/30 and not the decline years.

So back to the drawing board trying to find that future star every single GM is on the look out for.

And Christian Yelich is the blueprint...as he was a rising but erratic youngster with worlds of potential but not a future HoFer already.

This is another quite similar situation to Cease now...albeit Greinke with more like Dylan Cy 2022 version value.

(On December 19, 2010, the Kansas City Royals traded Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt to the Milwaukee Brewers for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi.)

Finally, not sure Getz has the cojones or desired prospects to even pull it off in first place.  Clearing out half of the top line talent from a top heavy and still quite thin system would be a career killing risk.

 

 

Conversely, reflect back on Todd Ritchie for Kip Wells Josh Fogg Sean Lowe...an example where the acquired asset blew up in the wrong way and wiped out future depth that could have filled out a rotation for the better part of a decade.

Or Nick Swisher.  Or Jeff Samardzija. Nick Swisher is the closest example of what that trade would look like.  Obviously fell on the wrong side of that deal as well.

 

Just desperately want to jump start this thing with some exciting positional talent we can watch sooner rather than 2-3 years from now.

IMO, far better to have that young player on board to launch a new stadium as well.

 

Yelich has not been worth it for the Brewers.  Despite giving up nothing, they signed him to a huge deal and he's been super pathetic (since not knowing what pitch was coming), outside of last year.

Edited January 29 by Squirmin' for Yermin

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Yelich has not been worth it for the Brewers.  Despite giving up nothing, they signed him to a huge deal and he's been super pathetic, otuside of last year.

All things considered...the Brewers don't ever go on that extended run without Braun Yelich and lots of pitching.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/christian-yelich/11477/stats?position=OF

Only 8.5 fWAR for the last four years.   Even if you valued that production at let's say $70-75 million adjusting for 2020...you've got the totality of $215 million likely falling off the last four remaining years.

The problem is who in the world doesn't try to keep their own player at that age coming off two consecutive 7+ fWAR years, an MVP award, etc.???

The Rays...arguably.

Edited January 29 by caulfield12

[nrockway]

it's a fun trade proposal but I bet Varsho's value is closer to Kopech's than to Cease's. Wouldn't mind seeing a non-Cease related trade involving Kopech and another player with a little bit of value, maybe for India.  

I like Varsho but I don't think he's a great fit on this team. I think you'd want to play him in center field. But if you could get him for Kopech and some middling prospects in our system, I wouldn't mind doing a deal. I think it would be a waste of Cease though, I'd rather just keep him than trade him for two "buy low/change of scenery" candidates.

Edited January 29 by nrockway

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, nrockway said:

it's a fun trade proposal but I bet Varsho's value is closer to Kopech's than to Cease's. Wouldn't mind seeing a non-Cease related trade involving Kopech and another player with a little bit of value, maybe for India.  

I like Varsho but I don't think he's a great fit on this team. I think you'd want to play him in center field. But if you could get him for Kopech and some middling prospects in our system, I wouldn't mind doing a deal. I think it would be a waste of Cease though, I'd rather just keep him than trade him for two "buy low/change of scenery" candidates.

I was going to come back and say something similar: wouldn't hate a Varsho trade, just not in a deal for Cease.

Edited January 29 by Bob Sacamano

[caulfield12]

34 minutes ago, nrockway said:

it's a fun trade proposal but I bet Varsho's value is closer to Kopech's than to Cease's. Wouldn't mind seeing a non-Cease related trade involving Kopech and another player with a little bit of value, maybe for India.  

I like Varsho but I don't think he's a great fit on this team. I think you'd want to play him in center field. But if you could get him for Kopech and some middling prospects in our system, I wouldn't mind doing a deal. I think it would be a waste of Cease though, I'd rather just keep him than trade him for two "buy low/change of scenery" candidates.

Well, Kopech's value has never been lower...still retains some residual name value and the #21 fastball which wasn't all that effective last year.

In the end the heavy lifting will always come down to FA...and they simply can't follow the same approach of avoiding every single $100+ million contract.

Maybe the Orioles can get away with it, but even the Royals added Zobrist Cueto Shields etc., and the Cubs Jon Lester most famously.

 

At any rate Toronto has to keep Varsho (came up as Vasshole lol) insurance for Kiermaier at the very least.

Edited January 30 by caulfield12

[Tnetennba]

34 minutes ago, nrockway said:

it's a fun trade proposal but I bet Varsho's value is closer to Kopech's than to Cease's. Wouldn't mind seeing a non-Cease related trade involving Kopech and another player with a little bit of value, maybe for India.  

I like Varsho but I don't think he's a great fit on this team. I think you'd want to play him in center field. But if you could get him for Kopech and some middling prospects in our system, I wouldn't mind doing a deal. I think it would be a waste of Cease though, I'd rather just keep him than trade him for two "buy low/change of scenery" candidates.

It would 100% be a waste of Cease. So much so that the Toronto FO might suffer broken ribs from rolling on the floor laughing after hanging up the phone.

I actually like Varsho as a player, but with Benintendi and Robert already on the roster, he simply doesn't fit. 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

It would 100% be a waste of Cease. So much so that the Toronto FO might suffer broken ribs from rolling on the floor laughing after hanging up the phone.

I actually like Varsho as a player, but with Benintendi and Robert already on the roster, he simply doesn't fit. 

Except Robert won't be around for more than another year...or could even go at the deadline.

Most likely next offseason.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.fishstripes.com/2021/1/25/22247364/christian-yelich-trade-brewers-marlins-results-3-years-later

This is arguably one of the best trades of the last decade.

So obviously...rather than Cease, the majority of teams are going to want prospects back.

In fact, the lack of top line prospects is what kept the Sox from trading for Miggy Cabrera and changed the course of the AL Central similarly to what Yelich did for the Brewers.

The idea was to find an undervalued asset who had the capability of exploding.

Ideally, Varsho would be closer to having just 2 years of service time...rather than merely three increasingly expensive years remaining.

Then the second key is being able to afford a generous enough extension to be enticing.

And you're arguably MUCH better off giving that extension to a player at Varsho's CURRENT age than 30/31.

You have to lock in ages 27-29/30 and not the decline years.

So back to the drawing board trying to find that future star every single GM is on the look out for.

And Christian Yelich is the blueprint...as he was a rising but erratic youngster with worlds of potential but not a future HoFer already.

This is another quite similar situation to Cease now...albeit Greinke with more like Dylan Cy 2022 version value.

(On December 19, 2010, the Kansas City Royals traded Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt to the Milwaukee Brewers for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi.)

Finally, not sure Getz has the cojones or desired prospects to even pull it off in first place.  Clearing out half of the top line talent from a top heavy and still quite thin system would be a career killing risk.

 

 

Conversely, reflect back on Todd Ritchie for Kip Wells Josh Fogg Sean Lowe...an example where the acquired asset blew up in the wrong way and wiped out future depth that could have filled out a rotation for the better part of a decade.

Or Nick Swisher.  Or Jeff Samardzija. Nick Swisher is the closest example of what that trade would look like.  Obviously fell on the wrong side of that deal as well.

 

Just desperately want to jump start this thing with some exciting positional talent we can watch sooner rather than 2-3 years from now.

IMO, far better to have that young player on board to launch a new stadium as well.

 

There are late bloomers who have turned into quality players . It actually happens fairly frequently. You need scouting and development people to sometimes reach a player to unlock their potential. Sometimes it's just a matter of paying close enough attention to grab a guy who is finally healthy.

Getz in one of his latest interviews talked about how important it is to have "diversity of thought" among his new staff members.

I'm not sure what the Sox are going to end up with for Cease. It better not be nothing or significantly less than could be had uptil opening day.

They need a strong return not a great return. I'll take the best 3 guys you can get . If those are 2 guys from the Orioles top 5-10 and 1 from their 10-15 so be it.

 I don't want it thinned out by the last 2 guys being 40 FV guys. I'd prefer 3 position players including at least one LH OF. I figure 3 position players has better odds of one of them being good.

I 100 % expect 1 pitcher though when/ if it goes down.

 

[caulfield12]

52 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

There are late bloomers who have turned into quality players . It actually happens fairly frequently. You need scouting and development people to sometimes reach a player to unlock their potential. Sometimes it's just a matter of paying close enough attention to grab a guy who is finally healthy.

Getz in one of his latest interviews talked about how important it is to have "diversity of thought" among his new staff members.

I'm not sure what the Sox are going to end up with for Cease. It better not be nothing or significantly less than could be had uptil opening day.

They need a strong return not a great return. I'll take the best 3 guys you can get . If those are 2 guys from the Orioles top 5-10 and 1 from their 10-15 so be it.

 I don't want it thinned out by the last 2 guys being 40 FV guys. I'd prefer 3 position players including at least one LH OF. I figure 3 position players has better odds of one of them being good.

I 100 % expect 1 pitcher though when/ if it goes down.

 

Yeah...they're definitely not going to spend significant money on pitching from now until next off-season...it should be almost 100% directed at position players.

Winnowing down the field of contenders and pretenders.

[wrathofhahn]

On 1/29/2024 at 1:23 PM, southsider2k5 said:

There is literally no good reason to spend actual assets trying to compete in 2024.  Sure we need to fill out a roster, find some guys who can fill some innings and not kill the guys you want to be around long term, or could have value as trade assets.  But other than that we KNOW this team is a dumpster fire.  There is zero reason to think about 2024 as anything other than adding for down the road.

If we want to talk about fantasy trades, we should be targeting as much volume and quality as we can for 2026 and beyond.  Target starting pitching and up the middle players.  I am not going to pretend to know other teams systems, but high ceilings and skill positions have to be top targets.  The goal is to find WAR to replace Cease, down the road, with a shooting for the stars view of finding 3 starters, including at least 1 star player.

We should be trading for and signing high upside players with an eye of flipping them later.

Filling the roster full of hot garbage is not how to rebuild in MLB. You don't rebuild through the draft unless you want to wait 4-5 years. You rebuild via trades.

Edited January 31 by wrathofhahn

[South Side Hit Men]

37 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

We should be trading for and signing high upside players with an eye of flipping them later.

Filling the roster full of hot garbage is not how to rebuild in MLB. You don't rebuild through the draft unless you want to wait 4-5 years. You rebuild via trades.

I'd say the way to rebuild is acquisitions and player development. Trades can be a component, especially if you're acquiring prospects due to be ready at your next window.

The trades Hahn made after 2016 aren't being made as often these days beyond say top players (Top 30-60, perhaps the Top 10-20). Sale definitely qualified as Top 20 at the time, Eaton falls far short of either, Quintana outside of the Top 60 metric.

Teams almost universally value the six years of cost control over marginal increases in current talent, and don't hand out top prospects as often as several years ago (and prior). This has been exacerbated by the vast expansion of the postseason, which now makes the season basically a race to finish slightly above .500, and allows teams to depress player salaries for all but the elite top of the pay scale. Also depresses urgency to improve in the offseason or deadline.

Edited January 31 by South Side Hit Men