caulfield12 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 (edited) https://global.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39446244/pitcher-corbin-burnes-exactly-needed "A big trade and I think a big addition and moment for our team. Corbin Burnes is exactly what we needed," Mike Elias said Friday. "We were in a dogged pursuit of him the entire offseason. Obviously there were other starting pitchers that we pursued, but it's hard to have somebody higher than Corbin Burnes on your wish list." Edited February 4 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Demon Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/2/2024 at 9:30 AM, Squirmin' for Yermin said: Kjerstad, Westburg and Cowser I imagine? I do not know for sure. They may have been Mayo, Cowser, and Westburg. Westburg was definitely one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/2/2024 at 5:19 PM, baseball_gal_aly said: I always thought that was fair. I thought the Sox were asking for more nor did I think that anyone would offer such a deal. Does bag of balls ring a bell ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball_gal_aly Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Does bag of balls ring a bell ? Yes, that was intentional hyperbole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/2/2024 at 9:27 AM, CWSpalehoseCWS said: Cease would have brought back more than what Burnes did simple for the extra year of control. I personally think Hall is a high leverage RP, I don’t see him starting long term. I think the best get in the whole deal is the draft pick. For one year of Burnes, I don’t think it’s that terrible of a return. Agreed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/2/2024 at 8:08 AM, Balta1701 said: Given that the White Sox can hold onto Cease and see what happens in the first half, I would have not had interest in this return for Cease. If he has a bad first half, the White Sox will have pressure to actually move him, and taking a comparable package at the deadline may be the outcome. Obviously that’s the approach…. However a bad 1st half makes the return less than Burnes IMO. An injury hurts it even more. It will be interesting to see how things turn out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) On 2/2/2024 at 12:49 PM, SoCalChiSox said: So then you actually agree with us that Cease is worth two Top 100 talents+? Because Kjerstad/Cowser is one, Ortiz is another (borderline), and your boy Hall is valued like a Top 100 in terms of SV on BTV. If we take out the 4m for the draft pick and add back in Cowser or Kjerstad (17-20m), that's a net addition of around 14m, so instead of 36m and change, you are proposing BAL to pay us 50m for Cease. I'm glad you are agreeing that we were right with our valuations, aly. So you are thinking the return for Cease should’ve been Cowser/Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Hall? I’ll have some of what you’re smoking. Hall won’t make it as a starter IMO ….But is a leverage reliever and possibly a closer. The other guys are ready …high floor guys. So even if they only end up average major leaguers you’ve won the trade by a landslide. The likelihood hood of Cease reproducing the CY Young season is likely about 20% IMO. That’s not to say he can’t give a team 2 years of above MLB average starter production. i think the major problem with Getz is he’s tarting to sell Cease on what he could be versus what he is after 2023. I think you guys also wanted to receive the return based on that. Honeslty, I hope you guys get it. I just hope it’s not from the Orioles, maybe the Red Sox or Jays will drop their pants. Edited February 10 by Rolle Tide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 50 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said: Obviously that’s the approach…. However a bad 1st half makes the return less than Burnes IMO. An injury hurts it even more. It will be interesting to see how things turn out. Depends on what you mean by “bad”. Dylan Cease at his worst so far has been a mid-rotation innings eater with a high strikeout rate, a guy you can still start in the playoffs. Last year at the deadline, there was enough demand for pitching that two top 150 prospects but not top 100 would have been a totally fair return for that level of guy if they had 1.5 years of control. If he’s that player again this year, this would be a fair deadline return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-jon-meoli-preseason-win-projections-XI5GNVWDAZBL7H2KGXPCX4EXZI/ The reasons the numbers are lower than you might expect for a team that won 101 games and is mostly back intact are relatively consistent with years past, though. Even with Corbin Burnes’ addition and some steps forward on the mound from their inexperienced rotation last year, the repeatability of that for a full year isn’t guaranteed in any projection. Neither is the quality of the bullpen, with Félix Bautista out and Craig Kimbrel replacing him as closer. Nor is the team’s success in winning close and late — it was 30-16 in one-run games last year and won 48 games from trailing positions. Those are hard to replicate… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Depends on what you mean by “bad”. Dylan Cease at his worst so far has been a mid-rotation innings eater with a high strikeout rate, a guy you can still start in the playoffs. Last year at the deadline, there was enough demand for pitching that two top 150 prospects but not top 100 would have been a totally fair return for that level of guy if they had 1.5 years of control. If he’s that player again this year, this would be a fair deadline return. Last year a middle rotation, innings eater with just HALF a year of control returned a top 70 (at the time) prospect and another prospect probably in the 150-200 range. That was Lucas Giolito for Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. Cease's value will not dip below a Ortiz/Hall/pick offer UNLESS a major injury happens. That is the only risk. Edited February 10 by Squirmin' for Yermin 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: Depends on what you mean by “bad”. Dylan Cease at his worst so far has been a mid-rotation innings eater with a high strikeout rate, a guy you can still start in the playoffs. Last year at the deadline, there was enough demand for pitching that two top 150 prospects but not top 100 would have been a totally fair return for that level of guy if they had 1.5 years of control. If he’s that player again this year, this would be a fair deadline return. He was definitely a pitcher that the majority of MLB GM’s would have selected to start G3 for the Orioles over then-existing options despite being in the midst of a supposed down year…that was filled with mitigating circumstances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: Last year a middle rotation, innings eater with just HALF a year of control returned a top 70 (at the time) prospect and another prospect probably in the 150-200 range. That was Lucas Giolito for Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. Cease's value will not dip below a Ortiz/Hall/pick offer UNLESS a major injury happens. That is the only risk. Bush was in the 150-200 range? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: Last year a middle rotation, innings eater with just HALF a year of control returned a top 70 (at the time) prospect and another prospect probably in the 150-200 range. That was Lucas Giolito for Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. Cease's value will not dip below a Ortiz/Hall/pick offer UNLESS a major injury happens. That is the only risk. I enjoy this from the pitiful depths of white Sox fandom. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 10 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: Last year a middle rotation, innings eater with just HALF a year of control returned a top 70 (at the time) prospect and another prospect probably in the 150-200 range. That was Lucas Giolito for Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. Cease's value will not dip below a Ortiz/Hall/pick offer UNLESS a major injury happens. That is the only risk. We also gave up Lopez who was a pretty desirable reliever. I will continue to look at the trade as Quero for Giolito and Bush for Lopez. Doesn’t change your main point, but I think it’s worth clarifying. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Cesar Prieto and Rom have been ranked in the mid teens for Cardinals prospects with Showalter anywhere from #10-23… That was the very light return for Flaherty, who hasn't been good for three full seasons but still got almost $15 million in FA…which is lower middle class for starting pitching in 2024. Dylan Cease is worth a lot more than THAT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: Last year a middle rotation, innings eater with just HALF a year of control returned a top 70 (at the time) prospect and another prospect probably in the 150-200 range. That was Lucas Giolito for Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. The Sox traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez for Quero and Bush. The Angels were in a unique situation as they had Ohtani for likely the last time and were one of a few teams (along with Texas) going all in at the deadline. Lucas received $38.25M ($19.25M AAV) and Lopez $30M ($10M AAV) by two of the more prominent GMs in the game. Not commenting on how this compares to the Cease trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Cesar Prieto and Rom have been ranked in the mid teens for Cardinals prospects with Showalter anywhere from #10-23… That was the very light return for Flaherty, who hasn't been good for three full seasons but still got almost $15 million in FA…which is lower middle class for starting pitching in 2024. Dylan Cease is worth a lot more than THAT. I do wish we had Prieto. I always liked him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Who are likely sellers who will actually have high-end SPs available at the trade deadline? Most of the true garbage teams in our company don’t have a SP that is the quality of Cease. I’d say the Tigers with Skubal fit the billing the most and possibly the Marlins with Luzardo. And I don’t see a hopeful contender like the Mets with two aces who could underperform and then undermind the market. I candidly hate waiting until then due to general pitching risk, but I think the market conditions will be even more favorable than they are now and how they were last year. Which is why I’m shocked more teams aren’t willing to pony up for Cease now, because the price will almost certainly go up with even the slightest of improvements from Dylan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Who are likely sellers who will actually have high-end SPs available at the trade deadline? Most of the true garbage teams in our company don’t have a SP that is the quality of Cease. I’d say the Tigers with Skubal fit the billing the most and possibly the Marlins with Luzardo. And I don’t see a hopeful contender like the Mets with two aces who could underperform and then undermind the market. I candidly hate waiting until then due to general pitching risk, but I think the market conditions will be even more favorable than they are now and how they were last year. Which is why I’m shocked more teams aren’t willing to pony up for Cease now, because the price will almost certainly go up with even the slightest of improvements from Dylan. Padres if they are out of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 24 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: I do wish we had Prieto. I always liked him. Same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Who are likely sellers who will actually have high-end SPs available at the trade deadline? Most of the true garbage teams in our company don’t have a SP that is the quality of Cease. I’d say the Tigers with Skubal fit the billing the most and possibly the Marlins with Luzardo. And I don’t see a hopeful contender like the Mets with two aces who could underperform and then undermind the market. I candidly hate waiting until then due to general pitching risk, but I think the market conditions will be even more favorable than they are now and how they were last year. Which is why I’m shocked more teams aren’t willing to pony up for Cease now, because the price will almost certainly go up with even the slightest of improvements from Dylan. Just looking at SPs that will be free agents after the season on likely non-contenders, the list is…not great. Wacha is the only one that even sort of stands out, and he has a player option, so I don’t know how much that muddies the waters. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 25 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said: The Sox traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez for Quero and Bush. The Angels were in a unique situation as they had Ohtani for likely the last time and were one of a few teams (along with Texas) going all in at the deadline. Lucas received $38.25M ($19.25M AAV) and Lopez $30M ($10M AAV) by two of the more prominent GMs in the game. Not commenting on how this compares to the Cease trade. Yea I think money, commitment & opportunity get overlooked the most when valuing Cease. A team trying to win the World Series can trade for Cease right now and get 2 years of control, 180 IP, a decent shot at a CYA, pay only $8M…AND that comes with an option to roll it back for another $12M or trade him to restock a good chunk of what they lost to acquire him. That’s insane value. Cheap teams like Twins, Guardians, Rays, Brewers, Reds etc. this is their golden opportunity to get top pitching. They can’t purchase this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 15 minutes ago, Snopek said: Just looking at SPs that will be free agents after the season on likely non-contenders, the list is…not great. Wacha is the only one that even sort of stands out, and he has a player option, so I don’t know how much that muddies the waters. This is an amazing class.... Wheeler, Burnes, Fried, Bieber, Buehler, tons of depth guys, some high risk/reward guys. Potential Cole opt out. This has to be one of the best SP classes in years right? What am i missing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, Snopek said: Just looking at SPs that will be free agents after the season on likely non-contenders, the list is…not great. Wacha is the only one that even sort of stands out, and he has a player option, so I don’t know how much that muddies the waters. Fangraph Projections: 2025 FA Starting Pitchers X > 0.9 2024 DC on projected X < .500 teams Dylan Cease = 3.1 3.4 Cleveland .496 Shane Bieber UFA 3.1 Milwaukee .497 Freddy Peralta Club Option 2.1 Cincinnati .491 Frankie Montas Mutual Option 2.1 New York Mets .496 Sean Manaea Opt-Out 1.7 Pittsburgh .476 Martin Perez UFA 1.7 New York Mets .496 Jose Quintana UFA 1.6 Chicago Cubs .498 Kyle Hendricks UFA 1.6 New York Mets .496 Luis Severino UFA 1.5 Kansas City .468 Michael Wacha Player Option 1.5 Detroit .492 Jack Flaherty UFA 1.5 San Francisco Giants .489 Alex Cobb UFA 1.4 Oakland .447 Ross Stripling UFA 1.4 Oakland .447 Alex Wood UFA 1.2 Chicago White Sox .417 Michael Soroka UFA 1.2 Milwaukee Brewers .497 Wade Miley Mutual Option 1.0 Washington .408 Patrick Corbin UFA 1.0 New York Mets .496 Adrian Houser UFA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 33 minutes ago, Jerksticks said: Yea I think money, commitment & opportunity get overlooked the most when valuing Cease. A team trying to win the World Series can trade for Cease right now and get 2 years of control, 180 IP, a decent shot at a CYA, pay only $8M…AND that comes with an option to roll it back for another $12M or trade him to restock a good chunk of what they lost to acquire him. That’s insane value. Cheap teams like Twins, Guardians, Rays, Brewers, Reds etc. this is their golden opportunity to get top pitching. They can’t purchase this. None of those teams are trying. They much rather have prospects with 3 years at the minimum, and then up to 3 more if they are worth an arbitration offer. The teams that are trying aren't as enticed about the low salary unless they are on the borderline in terms of the "luxury tax", which most or all will not be (they will be either clearly over or under). Anaheim last year was the lone team I ever recall being very close to the borderline, and acting on it accordingly (selectively adding in July and then cutting dramatically to start September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.