Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for Ortiz/Hall/34th Pick

[Rey21]

Getz only overplayed his hand if Cease either gets hurt or regresses. Cool with him not budging and remaining firm on his price. 

[WhiteSox2023]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

$15M AAV isn’t a big free agent contract. Sure, for Jerry it is, but for real major market teams that’s nothing.

Benintendi is a bad signing for any team for his performance (complete lack of power).  Sure the money isn’t a killer for most teams, but once again you said it — “Sure, for Jerry it is.”

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Getz definitely will have overplayed his hand if Cease gets seriously injured in Spring Training or pitching before the trade deadline.  Hindsight or not, his head should roll if that happens.

If this was the most that someone was willing to give up in a starting pitching trade this offseason, then Cease getting hurt doesn’t destroy the White Sox.

[caulfield12]

Why don't the White Sox go after Keston Hiura with Turang Adames Hoskins ensconced in MIL?

Nothing to lose.

Edited February 2 by caulfield12

[South Side Hit Men]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

With no one in the AL Central actually wanting to win the division in 2024 (division favorite just made a trade to hurt their 2024 mlb roster), it’s a real shame Jerry doesn’t just say f*** it and open up the checkbook to sign Montgomery and Ryu. Obviously not going to happen but a starting rotation of Montgomery/Cease/Ryu/Fedde/Kopech would be quite formidable.

There will be a lot more FA money available in 2025, so I can see several players left in FA taking a one year prove it deal. 

• LF A. Benintendi (L 1.5) 
• 1B A. Vaughn (R 1.7)
• CF L. Robert Jr. (R 4.0)
• 3B Y. Moncada (S 2.3)
• DH E. Jimenez (R 2.0)
• RF J. Soler (R 1.9)
• SS 1H P. DeJong (R 0.7) 2H C. Montgomery (L 0.6) ^
• 2B A. Rosario (R 2.3)
• C M. Stassi (R 0.9)

C M. Maldonado; INF N. Lopez; INF/OF L. Sosa; OF A. Duvall

• D. Cease (R 3.2)
• H. J Ryu (L 1.8)
• E. Fedde (R 1.1)
• M. Soroka (R 1.2)
• J. Junis (R 1.1)
• M. Kopech (R 0.8)
• C. Flexen (R 0.8)

• CL G. Santos (R 1.3) 
• SU J. Brebbia (R 0.4)
• SU T. Hill (L -0.2)
• SU R. Stanek (R 0.3)
• MI S. Drohan (L -0.1)
• LR/OP T. Toussaint (R 0.3)
• LR/OP G. Crochet (L 0.8)

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

13 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

There will be a lot more FA money available in 2025, so I can see several players left in FA taking a one year prove it deal. 

• LF A. Benintendi (L 1.5) 
• 1B A. Vaughn (R 1.7)
• CF L. Robert Jr. (R 4.0)
• 3B Y. Moncada (S 2.3)
• DH E. Jimenez (R 2.0)
• RF J. Soler (R 1.9)
• SS 1H P. DeJong (R 0.7) 2H C. Montgomery (L 0.6) ^
• 2B A. Rosario (R 2.3)
• C M. Stassi (R 0.9)

C M. Maldonado; INF N. Lopez; INF/OF L. Sosa; OF A. Duvall

• D. Cease (R 3.2)
• H. J Ryu (L 1.8)
• E. Fedde (R 1.1)
• M. Soroka (R 1.2)
• J. Junis (R 1.1)
• M. Kopech (R 0.8)
• C. Flexen (R 0.8)

• CL G. Santos (R 1.3) 
• SU J. Brebbia (R 0.4)
• SU T. Hill (L -0.2)
• SU R. Stanek (R 0.3)
• MI S. Drohan (L -0.1)
• LR/OP T. Toussaint (R 0.3)
• LR/OP G. Crochet (L 0.8)

 

Tbh, that roster competes for the division title. I don’t know what it would cost but I don’t think that payroll would be higher than what they had going into the 2023 season.

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Tbh, that roster competes for the division title. I don’t know what it would cost but I don’t think that payroll would be higher than what they had going into the 2023 season.

I hate that I have to keep repeating this, but our run differential was 319 runs worse than the Twins.  How does that roster make up that difference?

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Tbh, that roster competes for the division title. I don’t know what it would cost but I don’t think that payroll would be higher than what they had going into the 2023 season.

$45-55 millionish more?

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

1 hour ago, Rey21 said:

It’s only a blow if a deal was actually close for Cease which seemingly it never was. I’m sure Getz knew what was available, good on him for not budging. I get most of us wanted a RF and 2B to kickstart this “re-tool” and the O’s assuming they were ready to play ball and go hard after Cease made a ton of sense, the Sox aren’t a RF and 2B away from winning a division. Let Cease cook with a better game caller and better defense behind him and let the contenders (O’s included) come calling at the deadline. Good on the O’s for fleecing the Brewers. 

There is no scenario in which this trade doesn't hurt Chris Getz' efforts to move Cease, and possibly being forced to keep him until July could end up being a disaster because of the risk involved. 

[caulfield12]

A++ Baltimore

C Brewers

 

https://global.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38833715/2023-24-mlb-offseason-grades-free-agency-trade-analysis

 

The Orioles will now roll out a top three of Burnes, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, the highly touted rookie last season who struggled early on before posting a 2.26 ERA over his final 12 starts. Bradish came a little bit out of nowhere to finish fourth in the Cy Young voting and while some might chalk up his season as a fluke, his pitch metrics are strong and suggest we can expect more of the same. I'd rank those three right up there with any trio in the majors -- maybe the Dodgers are better, depending on the health of Tyler Glasnow and Walker Buehler to go with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and the Mariners are pretty good as well - but these three are going to win a lot of games with Baltimore's offense and defense supporting them.

....

Bottom line: The Orioles have seemingly done everything right in making this massive improvement the past two seasons - from drafting to player development and now to this trade and to new owners with perhaps a little more cash flow on hand to boost the payroll. With Holliday, Coby Mayo (No. 19 prospect), Samuel Basallo (No. 27) and Heston Kjerstad (No. 48) all on the horizon, the present is bright and the future unlimited. It's a good time to be an Orioles fan. -- David Schoenfield

Edited February 2 by caulfield12

[Rey21]

1 minute ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

There is no scenario in which this trade doesn't hurt Chris Getz' efforts to move Cease, and possibly being forced to keep him until July could end up being a disaster because of the risk involved. 

They have him for 2 full seasons. If he was a FA after this season, maybe. But if Cease can remain healthy, and doesn’t regress, which again I’m pretty confident in him having a solid season, Getz will get a haul for him come the deadline when more than half the league is looking for starting pitching, let alone, beyond half a seasons worth of control. 

Cease is worth more than Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and a Colton Cowser who may have not even been on the table, I think @Y2Jimmy mentioned Elias balked at a similar offer at the deadline 

[caulfield12]

The first clue about Elias and the new owners will be whether they aggressively get an extension done with Burnes or just let the final year of his contract play out...

[Buehrle>Wood]

9 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

There is no scenario in which this trade doesn't hurt Chris Getz' efforts to move Cease, and possibly being forced to keep him until July could end up being a disaster because of the risk involved. 

I don't see much of any risk involved. The Sox got a comparable package for Lucas Giolito this past deadline. Even if Cease pitches poorly the next 1.5 years (doubtful), they probably wouldn't get too much worse value here, unless you really value a draft oick.

[baseball_gal_aly]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The first clue about Elias and the new owners will be whether they aggressively get an extension done with Burnes or just let the final year of his contract play out...

Scott Boras 

[Frobby]

Just stopping in to thank Sox fans here for the good discussions of the possibility of an O’s deal for Cease over the last two months.  A few parting thoughts:

1.  I think the O’s probably would have been willing to pay more for two years of Cease than they did for one year of Burnes.  But at the same time, Burnes is a much better bet to be a true ace starter in 2024 than Cease would be for either of 2024-25.  So, I’m very happy getting Burnes.  He’s far less risky performance-wise.

2.  I wouldn’t necessarily say that Ortiz was the lead piece of this deal   Hall has long been a top 100 prospect (still is, under BA’s criteria of who qualifies as a prospect).  He still has a very high ceiling (Snell/Hader) and at this point, a good high leverage reliever floor.  

3.  That said, you guys have always been too dismissive of Ortiz.  The Madrigal comp was very stupid.  Ortiz is an excellent defensive SS and Madrigal’s a decent 2B/3B.  Ortiz has a .150 ISO in the minors compared to Madrigal’s .099.  I am not saying that Ortiz will turn out to be a better overall player than Madrigal (though at this point, I think it’s likely), but they’re really not the same type of player, so the snarky “Nicky Ortiz” comments were never warranted.  I think he could have been an excellent addition for your team as the second piece of a trade and you would have enjoyed watching him play.  We’ll see how that goes in Milwaukee.

4.  From my very first post, I said Cease wasn’t the O’s only option, the O’s weren’t the Sox’s only option, and I doubted anything would happen until the second half of January or later.  I was right on all three counts!

Good luck to you in finding a good return for Cease.  For your sake I hope he has a good year if he’s still in Chicago so that you can get a nice return at the deadline and enjoy watching him pitch until then.  Meanwhile, I’ll be enjoying watching Burnes pitch for the O’s.  

Ciao.
 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

31 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

I don't see much of any risk involved. The Sox got a comparable package for Lucas Giolito this past deadline. Even if Cease pitches poorly the next 1.5 years (doubtful), they probably wouldn't get too much worse value here, unless you really value a draft oick.

I'm talking about injury risk, not performance risk.

[ron883]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Just stopping in to thank Sox fans here for the good discussions of the possibility of an O’s deal for Cease over the last two months.  A few parting thoughts:

1.  I think the O’s probably would have been willing to pay more for two years of Cease than they did for one year of Burnes.  But at the same time, Burnes is a much better bet to be a true ace starter in 2024 than Cease would be for either of 2024-25.  So, I’m very happy getting Burnes.  He’s far less risky performance-wise.

2.  I wouldn’t necessarily say that Ortiz was the lead piece of this deal   Hall has long been a top 100 prospect (still is, under BA’s criteria of who qualifies as a prospect).  He still has a very high ceiling (Snell/Hader) and at this point, a good high leverage reliever floor.  

3.  That said, you guys have always been too dismissive of Ortiz.  The Madrigal comp was very stupid.  Ortiz is an excellent defensive SS and Madrigal’s a decent 2B/3B.  Ortiz has a .150 ISO in the minors compared to Madrigal’s .099.  I am not saying that Ortiz will turn out to be a better overall player than Madrigal (though at this point, I think it’s likely), but they’re really not the same type of player, so the snarky “Nicky Ortiz” comments were never warranted.  I think he could have been an excellent addition for your team as the second piece of a trade and you would have enjoyed watching him play.  We’ll see how that goes in Milwaukee.

4.  From my very first post, I said Cease wasn’t the O’s only option, the O’s weren’t the Sox’s only option, and I doubted anything would happen until the second half of January or later.  I was right on all three counts!

Good luck to you in finding a good return for Cease.  For your sake I hope he has a good year if he’s still in Chicago so that you can get a nice return at the deadline and enjoy watching him pitch until then.  Meanwhile, I’ll be enjoying watching Burnes pitch for the O’s.  

Ciao.
 

Get the hell out of here and never come back! 

Edited February 2 by ron883

[caulfield12]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just stopping in to thank Sox fans here for the good discussions of the possibility of an O’s deal for Cease over the last two months.  A few parting thoughts:

1.  I think the O’s probably would have been willing to pay more for two years of Cease than they did for one year of Burnes.  But at the same time, Burnes is a much better bet to be a true ace starter in 2024 than Cease would be for either of 2024-25.  So, I’m very happy getting Burnes.  He’s far less risky performance-wise.

2.  I wouldn’t necessarily say that Ortiz was the lead piece of this deal   Hall has long been a top 100 prospect (still is, under BA’s criteria of who qualifies as a prospect).  He still has a very high ceiling (Snell/Hader) and at this point, a good high leverage reliever floor.  

3.  That said, you guys have always been too dismissive of Ortiz.  The Madrigal comp was very stupid.  Ortiz is an excellent defensive SS and Madrigal’s a decent 2B/3B.  Ortiz has a .150 ISO in the minors compared to Madrigal’s .099.  I am not saying that Ortiz will turn out to be a better overall player than Madrigal (though at this point, I think it’s likely), but they’re really not the same type of player, so the snarky “Nicky Ortiz” comments were never warranted.  I think he could have been an excellent addition for your team as the second piece of a trade and you would have enjoyed watching him play.  We’ll see how that goes in Milwaukee.

4.  From my very first post, I said Cease wasn’t the O’s only option, the O’s weren’t the Sox’s only option, and I doubted anything would happen until the second half of January or later.  I was right on all three counts!

Good luck to you in finding a good return for Cease.  For your sake I hope he has a good year if he’s still in Chicago so that you can get a nice return at the deadline and enjoy watching him pitch until then.  Meanwhile, I’ll be enjoying watching Burnes pitch for the O’s.  

Ciao.
 

10-12 homers per year and a 2.5-3ish fWAR ceiling isn’t bad but the White Sox need infielders that can out up HaSeong Kim numbers from 2022, which is nearly double Ortiz’s likely peak.

He’s a nice complementary player hitting at the bottom of the order that might well outdo Westburg and Norby.

He's not a burner that will get you 30-40 steals, either.

 

Yolmer Sanchez at his peak might have been closer than Madrigal.  He won a GG.

But then Ortiz didn’t end up at Top 10 future SS/2B or Best Tools either.

Opinions are wide-ranging.  Age is against him.  Hall, for example, on Top Ten lists for 3-4 years and consistently Top 100 MiLB as well.  Ortiz a late bloomer who will have to prove himself each and every year to retain his spot because he wasn’t a high draft pick.

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

At first, I was shocked at the return but gave it some thought.

 

Brewers were not going to get a top 30 prospect for a 1-year rental. However, getting two ready to go young players with upsides and the 34th pick in the draft isn't what I call a punt either.

 

They don't have to pay Burnes this year so that money theoretically could be used to sign a free agent pitcher, possibly two, such as Ryu and Lorenzen.

 

Would not be surprised that Adames (and his bigger contract) is traded for a young, ready to go pitcher.  Additionally, Devin Williams may be traded, but I really doubt it unless they get exactly what they want back..

 

Finally, if Burnes was to be injured this year, they would have received nothing back in return. Waiting until the trade deadline decreases the return also. And his 2023 numbers were down compared to previous near total dominance…something was off.

 

So they will soon enough go with Black at third, Ortiz at SS, Turang at 2B, Hoskins, Contreras, Yelich, Chourio, etc.

 

Trade Adames for pitching and invest savings from Burnes and Adames somewhere else.  Brewers’ scouting will figure it out just like TB always. does, winning roughly 90% of their trades.

[South Side Hit Men]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I hate that I have to keep repeating this, but our run differential was 319 runs worse than the Twins.  How does that roster make up that difference?

I think we both (and most here) want to get to the same place (sustained success, dominating this division, then being a legitimate WS contender), but have a different mindset of how to get there. We can't control ownership, which is the major solution for both the team and potential new stadium.

Jerry gutted payroll for five years (1986-1990) before the new stadium to "prove" they needed a new stadium, and fans of course obliged, with 1990 being a surprise on the field success plus fans really wanting one more season at the park they lived their entire lives enjoying.

We've lived through "The money will be spent", which in reality meant that's not necessarily the case, and even the portion spent may be spent poorly. 

Say a decent revamped roster nets 70-75 wins, and a 5% chance of winning the division. You stabilize and likely improve attendance and TV ratings YOY, and prevent further additional substantial 2025 and 2026 payroll cuts. You have a few more players teams may possibly want at the deadline, including perhaps one or two good to really solid pitchers beyond Cease. You are not risking the future at all with short term 1-2 year free agent signings, and only adding to potential pieces to move if things turn out as expected.

In the end, no return for Cease or even Robert is going to create a contender. Beyond a new owner, it will take the new current FO (or new new FO post Jerry) to completely revamp player acquisition criteria and player development strategies to build a legitimate core the team has not had since 1991-1994, and before that the late 1950s - mid 1960s. They also must continue to go modern in the statistics and mechanical analysis just to catch up to 21st century thinking.

I'm hoping for at least a decent RF and perhaps one or two more FA pitchers stranded without a deal that can add a few wins. Ryu or Soler are likely outside of the current budget, but if they went to $150M ($18M more than Cot's has them for the 40 Man Roster) they still have substantial savings YOY, but fill in additional major holes. Soler could really pad his stats here. Ryu or another starter would really help as well. Even Duvall or Rosario would be nice pick ups. F Whit Merrifield.

This is my angle for why I continue to want the Sox to pursue 1-2 year FA signings. I agree, it's 20-1, perhaps higher, to win the division with the current roster. But only good things can happen if they add a few more pieces, have a legit RF and 4th OF, perhaps 1 or 2 more low cost bullpen arms who can turn it around. They start the season with improved depth and perhaps end April and May near .500 which will help draw fans in the Summer and keep the Sox options open for the deadline and beyond.

 

[caulfield12]

https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/corbin-burnes-orioles-rotation-analysis-QJ6Z2YCRO5FPXODQRYFTXU7ABY/

[Rolle Tide]

9 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Good luck digging out of that hole Getz. You overplayed your hand.

There was some suggestion of the same thing on the Orioles board. I wonder how you guys would be feeling if that was the return for Cease. I think Burnes has the better overall numbers but one less year of control. There is hope on the Brewers board that Hall can go back to the rotation. I know he’s preparing for a shot a the rotation. I think his success will be as a high leverage reliever 

[wrathofhahn]

7 hours ago, ron883 said:

Joey Ortiz will be a stud and not Nick Madrigal 2.0. Book it. 

Ha.

If this was what was being offered good on Getz for saying no. He can't control if the Brewers want to bend over for the O's. It sucks the Brewers came in and took the O's scraps and 25+ year old prospects but nothing you can do.

Personally, I have always thought we should hold onto Cease until the deadline. That is when you have the most leverage and with the new rules the worst move Getz could make at this point would be to trade Cease because clearly if that is the return for Burnes then there isn't a market for starting pitching right now.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

7 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The first clue about Elias and the new owners will be whether they aggressively get an extension done with Burnes or just let the final year of his contract play out...

He’s not signing an extension. Again, it’s Scott Boras. They basically traded Hall, Ortiz and a pick in the 30s for one year of Corbin Burnes and a draft pick in the 30’s in 2025. Good deal for both teams. 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The first clue about Elias and the new owners will be whether they aggressively get an extension done with Burnes or just let the final year of his contract play out...

I hope they don’t try to get an extension done…and Burnes wants to go to free agency. Boras guy.