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2024 Attendance Projection


Texsox

Attendance Projection   

42 members have voted

  1. 1. 2024 Home Attendance

    • Record Low below 1,800,000
      28
    • 1,800,000 to 1,999,000
      8
    • 2,000,000 +
      4
    • Record High 😂
      2


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Should be interesting if the TV stations and print outlets pretty much stop covering the Sox this year. Sure it's MLB but if the Sox start 10-30 and there's very little interest, these outlets might just decrease coverage of the Sox, especially on the road.

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Regular season: 40,615 X 81 = 3,253,365 + (81 standing room only @ 500 = 40,500) = 3,293,865

This is without factoring in the White Sox home field advantage in playoffs and World Series where additional seats are typically added.

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7 hours ago, reiks12 said:

Shame on anyone who pays for a game this season

There is an old saying, If you only support the team when they're winning you're not a real fan of the team.

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They are in Bridgeport, people don’t want to go. They probably would draw at least 2.5 million at the 78. And if you believe that, ask yourself something, what would JRs motivation be for spending the money to win if people showed up any way ? He had the worst stretch in NBA history up until that point with the Bulls after Jordan left, and his reward for fans continuing to show up  was never go over the luxury tax. 

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47 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

They are in Bridgeport, people don’t want to go. They probably would draw at least 2.5 million at the 78. And if you believe that, ask yourself something, what would JRs motivation be for spending the money to win if people showed up any way ? He had the worst stretch in NBA history up until that point with the Bulls after Jordan left, and his reward for fans continuing to show up  was never go over the luxury tax. 

Jerry isn’t going to be the owner for very long at the 78 if at all, so this is a hypothetical that doesn’t really matter.  Regardless, he has proven he will spend money if the attendance is there…he just won’t spend money in hopes of driving attendance (which is obviously dumb).

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23 hours ago, WBWSF said:

The lineup of Benidenti, Moncada, Robert Jr, Eloy, Vaughn, Moncada and hopefully Montgomery  will lead the team to the playoffs. This lineup is going to score alot of runs. It will be an exciting team and White Sox fans will be dancing in the streets once they're in the playoffs.

Maybe WBWSF is Getz dad. 

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2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Jerry isn’t going to be the owner for very long at the 78 if at all, so this is a hypothetical that doesn’t really matter.  Regardless, he has proven he will spend money if the attendance is there…he just won’t spend money in hopes of driving attendance (which is obviously dumb).

He bumped payroll in the mid 1990s and post World Series, but not much since beyond a blip Tony 2022 season.

Spending isn’t a guarantee to enable attendance increases, but they need to establish a credible baseline spending / team, tabs Jerry hasn’t done that for most of his tenure.

TV and ballpark decisions, and public alienation via Jerry and Eddie’s words and deeds have shifted Chicago from a 50/50 split to a 2/3 Cubs 1/3 White Sox split. It will take decades of competent to good new ownership to begin restoration of the prior split, but can be done simply by being good people and respecting and accommodating new and current Sox fans over a sustained period of time.

MLB Payroll Rank

(11) Top Third

  • 3rd: 1997
  • 4th: 2006
  • 5th: 1995, 1996, 2007, 2008, 2011
  • 7th: 2010, 2022
  • 8th: 1994
  • 9th: 2013

(17) Mid Tier

  • 11th: 2012
  • 12th: 2009, 2023
  • 13th: 1993, 2005
  • 14th: 2001
  • 15th: 2004, 2021
  • 16th: 2016
  • 17th: 1992, 2020
  • 18th: 1998, 2002, 2015, 2024
  • 20th: 2014, 2017

(10) Bottom Third

  • 21st: 1992
  • 22nd: 2003
  • 23rd: 1991
  • 24th: 1999
  • 26th: 1988, 1989, 1990, 2000, 2019
  • 29th: 2018

Notes: Comiskey Park II opened in 1991. There were 26 teams until 1992; 28 until 1997; and 30 since 1998.

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35 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

He bumped payroll in the mid 1990s and post World Series, but not much since beyond a blip Tony 2022 season.

Spending isn’t a guarantee to enable attendance increases, but they need to establish a credible baseline spending / team, tabs Jerry hasn’t done that for most of his tenure.

TV and ballpark decisions, and public alienation via Jerry and Eddie’s words and deeds have shifted Chicago from a 50/50 split to a 2/3 Cubs 1/3 White Sox split. It will take decades of competent to good new ownership to begin restoration of the prior split, but can be done simply by being good people and respecting and accommodating new and current Sox fans over a sustained period of time.

MLB Payroll Rank

(11) Top Third

  • 3rd: 1997
  • 4th: 2006
  • 5th: 1995, 1996, 2007, 2008, 2011
  • 7th: 2010, 2022
  • 8th: 1994
  • 9th: 2013

(17) Mid Tier

  • 11th: 2012
  • 12th: 2009, 2023
  • 13th: 1993, 2005
  • 14th: 2001
  • 15th: 2004, 2021
  • 16th: 2016
  • 17th: 1992, 2020
  • 18th: 1998, 2002, 2015, 2024
  • 20th: 2014, 2017

(10) Bottom Third

  • 21st: 1992
  • 22nd: 2003
  • 23rd: 1991
  • 24th: 1999
  • 26th: 1988, 1989, 1990, 2000, 2019
  • 29th: 2018

Notes: Comiskey Park II opened in 1991. There were 26 teams until 1992; 28 until 1997; and 30 since 1998.

image.pngI’m missing the last couple seasons, but you can see a very clear correlation between PY attendance and CY payroll.  Jerry will support larger payrolls if he has revenue to bank on, but obviously won’t spend big to greatly enhance a currently bad product and definitely won’t risk massive dollars on star free agents.  And to make sure I’m being clear here, Jerry sucks a fat one as owner and I’m not trying to make excuses for him.  I just think there is reasons to believe elevated revenue would lead to increased spending.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

image.pngI’m missing the last couple seasons, but you can see a very clear correlation between PY attendance and CY payroll.  Jerry will support larger payrolls if he has revenue to bank on, but obviously won’t spend big to greatly enhance a currently bad product and definitely won’t risk massive dollars on star free agents.  And to make sure I’m being clear here, Jerry sucks a fat one as owner and I’m not trying to make excuses for him.  I just think there is reasons to believe elevated revenue would lead to increased spending.

I agreed with both of your posts generally over his entire ownership. My point was they need to have a more consistent baseline payroll / team talent so they don't rely on the whims of a fluke World Series, or the couple of mid 1990s years with Jerry trying to kill the union and make a point with the Belle signing over trying to create a sustained championship window with the core Himes built.

They've averaged 16th payroll, but more recently Jerry loves tanking, with a single year blip to spite people opposed to his Tony hire. They drew over 2 million in the final season at Comiskey Park, knew from advanced ticket sales he would be drawing a lot of people in 1991, drew just under 3M and still rolled out a dead last payroll (1990), fourth from last in the first year at the new park, and 17th (9th from the bottom) in the league after falling just shy of 5M fans in two years,

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2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

image.pngI’m missing the last couple seasons, but you can see a very clear correlation between PY attendance and CY payroll.  Jerry will support larger payrolls if he has revenue to bank on, but obviously won’t spend big to greatly enhance a currently bad product and definitely won’t risk massive dollars on star free agents.  And to make sure I’m being clear here, Jerry sucks a fat one as owner and I’m not trying to make excuses for him.  I just think there is reasons to believe elevated revenue would lead to increased spending.

Increased spending on what? Catchers and relief pitchers? Because we know he won't ever spend for top players on the market. See the Manny machado/Bryce Harper debacle. And he is afraid to commit to starting pitchers as well.

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2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

image.pngI’m missing the last couple seasons, but you can see a very clear correlation between PY attendance and CY payroll.  Jerry will support larger payrolls if he has revenue to bank on, but obviously won’t spend big to greatly enhance a currently bad product and definitely won’t risk massive dollars on star free agents.  And to make sure I’m being clear here, Jerry sucks a fat one as owner and I’m not trying to make excuses for him.  I just think there is reasons to believe elevated revenue would lead to increased spending.

It doesn’t matter what he spends, he spends it wrong. He now needs billions to compete. His words. He has the highest payroll in the division, and is predicted to finish last.  I don’t know why so many think his ownership will soon be over. He’s 88 seems to be fine physically and mentally, and really could have another decade of life. And it won’t be sold not when he really isn’t capable of running the team, but when he dies.and maybe. I know we could wake up tomorrow AM and hear he died overnight, but he is also a candidate to make it to 100. And any hope that Michael may be any different than his dad is lost. He may even be worse. 

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3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

image.pngI’m missing the last couple seasons, but you can see a very clear correlation between PY attendance and CY payroll.  Jerry will support larger payrolls if he has revenue to bank on, but obviously won’t spend big to greatly enhance a currently bad product and definitely won’t risk massive dollars on star free agents.  And to make sure I’m being clear here, Jerry sucks a fat one as owner and I’m not trying to make excuses for him.  I just think there is reasons to believe elevated revenue would lead to increased spending.

But elevated revenue normally is most correlated to previous year performance...they make the playoffs, and the real gains in ticket revenues trail the following year in increased interest and usually ticket prices rising as well.

So we're now entering the opposite cycle where the teams will struggle on the field, interest in tickets will diminish, I guess from JR's perspective it doesn't matter because it all balances out, 4th or 5th place and low payroll or 1st/2nd/3rd and a higher payroll.

But they've hardly ever gone out and invested in the product coming off down years...instead demonstrating that propensity to cut back and claw back any previous losses rather than "investing in the future" like the Royals did with all their spending this offseason, coming off a 106 loss season.

 

Sherman (KC owners) would certainly at least acknowledge this strategy (the Witt extension especially) is just as much for positive PR and goodwill for the new stadium project/upcoming vote as it is for demonstrable results on the field.  That's something JR doesn't care about in the least, winning fans over, so to speak.

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1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

It doesn’t matter what he spends, he spends it wrong. He now needs billions to compete. His words. He has the highest payroll in the division, and is predicted to finish last.  I don’t know why so many think his ownership will soon be over. He’s 88 seems to be fine physically and mentally, and really could have another decade of life. And it won’t be sold not when he really isn’t capable of running the team, but when he dies.and maybe. I know we could wake up tomorrow AM and hear he died overnight, but he is also a candidate to make it to 100. And any hope that Michael may be any different than his dad is lost. He may even be worse. 

It just shows how much wasted spending (or wasteful) spending there was that the Royals spent more than almost all of the big market teams (combined in numerous cases) and yet they're still below the White Sox even with the all those new deals, the Bobby Witt, Jr., extension as well as Salvador Perez.

With the Sox, the Moncada, Eloy and Benintendi contracts all weigh so heavily on current payroll.

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20 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

Time to tarp the entire upper deck.  I want to reach that level of Oakland As embarrassment.

I see about 20 games where they actually could get over 25K depending on weather.

  • March (1): 28 vs. Detroit
  • May (3): 24-25-26 vs. Baltimore (Memorial Day Weekend + Fireworks Night + Luis Robert Jr. Bobblehead)
  • June (6): 6-9 vs. Boston; 24-26 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
  • July (2): 12 vs. Pittsburgh (Fireworks) & 26 vs. Seattle (Fireworks)
  • August (7): 9-10 vs, Cubs; 12-14 vs. New York Yankees; vs. Detroit 24 (Football Jersey); vs, New York Mets 30 (Fireworks)
  • September (1): 14 vs. Oakland (Halfway to Saint Patrick's Day)
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