West Coast White Sox: The Seattle Mariners and their 2024 season.

[chitownsportsfan]

My local club, and one that has many similarities to the White Sox in overall futility, fan suppressing ownership and questionable team building. They've pulled a White Sox and traded away a "never quite lived up to his promise" former top prospect in Jarred Kelenic to Atlanta (who will immediately become the 4 WAR star @Harold's Leg Lift predicted) along with a useful (but oft injured and expensive) SP in Marco Gonzales and throw in Evan White in order to save roughly 28 million in payroll. The two pitchers they got back, look like classic middle relievers most of the time and probably won't contribute much to this year's big league squad.

But surely they used that 28 million to go get another solid regular, right? Well no. The Ms then made another move trading Robbie Ray to the Giants for former Mariner favorite Mitch Haniger and another middling, oft injured pitcher, Anthony Desclafani,  The move was "salary neutral" according to GM Jerry Dipoto but given the prior move, was part of a "payroll rebalancing", as according to DiPoto the Ms had too much salary tied up in SP. Well maybe that makes sense, until you consider that Haniger is on 17 million this year and has a player option for 15 million next year that will ensure his carcass sticks around the Puget Sound another season. Haniger is coming off a negative fWAR year, and is projected for 1 fWAR and 123 games played. That's optimistic by ZIPS: Mitch hasn't played more than 100 games in a season since 2021 and has an injury history that would make Eloy and Moncada look like iron men.

The Mariners did spend a little money this offseason, giving 24 million guaranteed over two years to a part time DH in Mitch Garber who will be entering his age 33 season. If you're not spending 12 million AAV on an aged DH to push your expected wins to 87 instead of 86, are you even a real franchise? 

The Mariners don't want to operate like a good team and raise payroll in the contending window, much like the Sox they seem to believe good teams can be built sustainably on a payroll in the middle of the league. The Ms and Sox enter the year with the 17th and 18th highest payrolls in MLB, respectively.  The Mariners' window is ostensibly open this season and the next, but much like the 2022 White Sox, there's a chance that negative regression on the "core" coupled with a refusal to do anything other than retool around middling FAs on the wrong side of 30 will bit them sooner rather than later and slam that window shut. 

The Ms got roughly 14 fWAR from three position players last year: Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, and Julio Rodriguez. I'd probably take the under on 14 fWAR for those three this year. If they just have solid years and it goes down to 10 fWAR, the pitching stays about the same and so does everybody else, well, there's your 83 wins instead of 88 or whatever. And there's your window shut. 

And finally, perhaps realizing they were a little thin overall, they made a win now pay later move (that probably won't even be a win now move in true White Sox fashion) bringing in Santos for a couple C+ type prospects and a draft pick. While it's unlikely the Sox found a star in the deal, it's the type of move the Sox have been on the wrong end of too many times, chasing an extra win through bullpen additions and if you trade off back end top 20 org wide prospects enough times occasionally if will bite you long term. 

Fangraphs has them at 86 projected wins. The most mariner thing ever would be to win 86 games, miss the playoffs by a game, and then enter a retool headed into 2025.

Also, there is this article from Lookout Landing on Haniger that read a lot like the stuff we wrote about Konerko and others. Hope is a good thing, but when it's the only thing?

 

 

[Tnetennba]

What are your thoughts on the Polanco trade? That one felt very KW-finally-gets-his-man to me.

About the only move they made that intrigues me was bringing in Raley. But with all of the subtractions I struggle to see how they are much more than a .500 club, even with their stellar staff. Rangers and Astros aren't going anywhere, and its tough to squint and even see Wild Card contention.

[caulfield12]

It’s Garver I think, former Twin/Ranger.

It’s criminal not to go for it with a young and cheap Julio Rodriguez. Well, $10 million then quickly escalating to $18 with his extension.

Soon they’ll be arguing his star salary precludes any other big moves.

 

All comes down to the starting pitching.

Is Kirby still taking heat about his September shenanigans?

Woo’s health?

Comes down to Hancock and Miller…if they’re way out of it, this year might be the time to trade Luis Castillo for a haul, complicating the Cease market.

Bullpen looks strong but Munoz is one of those stuff guys who could suddenly implode as closer…lots of power arms but that’s no guarantee, either, as Sox fans all know.

Edited February 23 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

On 2/22/2024 at 4:52 PM, Tnetennba said:

What are your thoughts on the Polanco trade? That one felt very KW-finally-gets-his-man to me.

About the only move they made that intrigues me was bringing in Raley. But with all of the subtractions I struggle to see how they are much more than a .500 club, even with their stellar staff. Rangers and Astros aren't going anywhere, and its tough to squint and even see Wild Card contention.

I feel bad I forgot about it! I'll blame the excitement around the Michigan natty that is still ongoing. I agree with your assessment. It was a trade that you sell to the fanbase as "adding an All-Star" when in reality you probably just traded for a guy on the downside of his career at the near peak of his value. 

The Mariners do some things well the Sox don't (their 40 man is usually pretty deep with guys that can step in and produce 1 WAR in a pinch for example) but they also do a lot of the same dumb s%*# like bringing in "stars" that they get at "50 cents on the dollar" or even pay full freight. You could write 5k words just on the Cano signing and subsequent salary dump for Kelenic, which led to both (probably) too much faith in Kelenic and then too little.

 

Edited February 24 by chitownsportsfan

[chitownsportsfan]

LMAO. They have some dude on the broadcast who was on the 1st mariners team.

You can't make this s%*# up: "this team has come a long way since that first day [when they got shut out]..."

They remain without a WS appearance 46 odd years later. You've come a long way to go nowhere Mariners. 

[caulfield12]

How will the Ms bungle this one?

Maybe they won't after all.

Rodriguez can win it in extras.

[chitownsportsfan]

 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

 

At least they have Julio and a decent rotation when healthy...

[chitownsportsfan]

21 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

At least they have Julio and a decent rotation when healthy...

They might not lose as many, but they will have a season similar to the 23 Sox. They got over 15 fWAR from Julio, Suerez and Big Dumper last year. That won't happen again. Not to mention they got like 7 fWAR combined from the catcher spot. They will be lucky to get 3 this year. 

Julio is a nice player and he's probably more exciting than Luis, but I think Luis is better. He has more raw power for sure. 

Edited April 4 by chitownsportsfan

[Autumn Dreamin]

They are pinning a lot on their pen (and Woo) getting healthy eventually, which also feels very familiar.

Santos has a May ETA last I saw.

[chitownsportsfan]

Good win for them last night. Our former buddy Frankie Montas walked the world and the Mariners shockingly were able to make him pay. Mitch Haniger has been great for them so far. Cal Raleigh, Julio and Crawford continue to struggle. Julio had some decent ABs last night so maybe he's pulling out of it. Crawford and Raleigh I think are average starters who had career years last season. 

In general, nothing has really changed with my opinion of their squad. They will struggle to remain around .500 unless Julio is like an 8 WAR player, and I just don't see it.

[caulfield12]

This sounds awfully familiar...

"After the Marlins were bounced in the 2023 wild-card round, team owner Bruce Sherman determined that the magic of the 2023 season, driven in large part by a 33-14 record in one-run games, was mostly a mirage. In his assessment, the MLB roster assembled by GM Kim Ng and the minor-league system she oversaw were not set up for sustained success. Experts around the game echoed this sentiment to Yahoo Sports. Most people commended Ng for the job she did at the big-league level with the resources she was afforded, particularly in 2023, but described Miami’s organizational infrastructure and processes as woefully inadequate and behind the times.

When Sherman attempted to hire someone above Ng to oversee the organization’s refurbishment, the first woman GM in baseball history understandably balked. She had, just months prior, helped guide an overlooked, underfunded team to its first full-season playoff appearance in two decades. Many of her moves — signing Jorge Soler, trading for Luis Arráez, acquiring Jake Burger and Josh Bell at the deadline — were huge wins. She’d thrived on a shoestring budget, and for her efforts, she was force-fed a demotion. And so, instead of sticking around under a new boss, Ng left the Marlins.

In her place, Sherman hired Peter Bendix — a longtime executive with the Tampa Bay Rays, a club whose sustained success has enamored Sherman — as Miami’s President of Baseball Operations. Sources tell Yahoo Sports that Bendix’s assessment of the organization was similar to Sherman’s: Despite a successful 2023, the team needed to revamp its infrastructure."

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/whats-going-on-with-skip-schumaker-and-the-miami-marlins-172742998.html

Edited April 17 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

Mariners are playing some good ball. Don't think it's sustainable obviously but their pitching has been pretty lights out lately. The weather here has been absolute trash, the marine layers and cold might be helping them win some low scoring games. We'll see what happens when it warms up. I've been told it does have to eventually warm up. Maybe by July 4th .

[chitownsportsfan]

Pitching coming back to earth with a thud this week. If the score holds today they will be 20-18 with a +1 differential. Their schedule is pretty tough to end May, with a trip out East to play the Orioles, Yanks and Nationals before coming home to face the Astros again. I'd bet they are .500 or slightly below by the time June come around.

[caulfield12]

Stock is moving up with positive momentum after miracle comeback against NYY on Monday...

[chitownsportsfan]

On 5/21/2024 at 6:19 PM, caulfield12 said:

Stock is moving up with positive momentum after miracle comeback against NYY on Monday...

Stock neutral at best. -4 RD now at 27-24. Julio is playing like a 2 WAR CF and not a 6-8 WAR CF. They are in trouble. I've said many times they are putting too much pressure on him to be a top 5 player every year. Just rarely happens in baseball, sport is too hard year to year.

[caulfield12]

23 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Stock neutral at best. -4 RD now at 27-24. Julio is playing like a 2 WAR CF and not a 6-8 WAR CF. They are in trouble. I've said many times they are putting too much pressure on him to be a top 5 player every year. Just rarely happens in baseball, sport is too hard year to year.

Reminiscent of Acuna in that regard...obviously ATL has a much deeper lineup.

[chitownsportsfan]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Reminiscent of Acuna in that regard...obviously ATL has a much deeper lineup.

Love ya bud but that doesn't make any sense. It's the opposite for Acuna, as you noted they have a deep lineup. Mariners have Raleigh, Julio and a bunch of average at best players and few below average at best around him. Atlanta's entire lineup is pretty much solid regulars or stars, at least when healthy.

[chitownsportsfan]

Julio heating up a bit. Pitching continues to be 99th percentile which does not seem sustainable but sometimes you get that all season like the 2005 Sox.  FG projected win is only 84.7 (down from 87 preseason) but playoff odds are 60% thanks to how awful the division is.

[chitownsportsfan]

Mariners are scuffling big time. They now have the lowest BA in MLB, even worse than the Sox, although the Mariners have more slugging and patience it's no great shakes to be worse than the WS at any offensive category, certainly not for a team that fancied itself a division contender.

 

FG has their playoff odds still at 67%, but division odds down to 57%, was over 70% a couple weeks ago. Only a +4 differential now at 47-40.

[chitownsportsfan]

They claimed Dock Ellis. Yikes.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

They claimed Dock Ellis. Yikes.

Duke.

[chitownsportsfan]

Huge rally and win for them today. Sparked by Julio. Even tho I half heartedly root against them it was cool to see Julio lead the charge, he's a helluva player just in a pretty bad slump. 

For a minute they had a 1 game lead and a negative RD, then Julio hit a solo HR and that really seemed to ignite things. Hitting is contagious.

[caulfield12]

9 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Huge rally and win for them today. Sparked by Julio. Even tho I half heartedly root against them it was cool to see Julio lead the charge, he's a helluva player just in a pretty bad slump. 

For a minute they had a 1 game lead and a negative RD, then Julio hit a solo HR and that really seemed to ignite things. Hitting is contagious.

He's more inconsistent offensively than Acuna, but at least much healthier in general.

When he's on a tear, just an incredible player, even better defensively and disruptive on the basepaths, more so than almost anyone but Elly de la Cruz of CINCY.

Edited July 5 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

14 scoreless innings in a row for M's offense. Boo birds out in force at T-Mobile last two nights. The blew a 10 game lead in 24 games. Previous MLB record was 33.