Sox trade Matthew Thompson to Cubs for old friend Bailey Horn

[Jake]

Horn is a lefty who, based on the numbers, has shown some propensity to miss bats which is the name of the game nowadays. Thompson, according to all information available to me, stinks. I believe in the potential of all men but I'm not losing sleep over this trade.

[Bob Sacamano]

I will say one thing: Matthew Thompson has a better shot on the Northside with their pitching lab and team of analytics than with our skeleton crew.

Ultimately, I think both guys end up being nothing really.

Edited February 27 by Bob Sacamano

[Jerksticks]

You think Getz is raising the floor of the organization with most of these moves?  These aren’t big ceiling plays but depth seems better 

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, Jake said:

Horn is a lefty who, based on the numbers, has shown some propensity to miss bats which is the name of the game nowadays. Thompson, according to all information available to me, stinks. I believe in the potential of all men but I'm not losing sleep over this trade.

Thompson's K rate at Birmingham last year: 9.8 K/9.

Horn's K rate last year at Iowa: 10 K/9.

Yes, this is another of those trades that is, on its own, unlikely to backfire. It is unlikely that this specific pitcher will break out next year, just like the last one with Arizona. However, it is once again a low reward trade from the White Sox perspective. If you do that type of trade over and over and over again, you get low rewards overall, but eventually the odds start stacking together and it turns out that you get a trade that does in fact implode. It's unlikely to be any specific trade, but when it happens .... boom. That is how it went with Hahn and Williams - "it's ok to give these guys up, they never come back to hurt us", until they did.

With the White Sox's current situation, adding another low reward guy to the 40 man roster is just bizarre. the hope is that Getz is just cleaning out guys he doesn't like for whatever reason, but even then why are you adding a guy to the already packed 40 man roster when you signed so many NRIs who could fill those slots? 

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

You think Getz is raising the floor of the organization with most of these moves?  These aren’t big ceiling plays but depth seems better 

Honestly, no, because they have so many NRIs who could fill this roster spot that this just replaces one guy who is likely bad with another guy who looks bad. 

[WestEddy]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Honestly, no, because they have so many NRIs who could fill this roster spot that this just replaces one guy who is likely bad with another guy who looks bad. 

And here we go with the digging in to the point where Bailey Horn will be the worst pitcher in all of baseball history in about 4 volleys. 

Matt Thompson was going nowhere. We've established that. Getz grabbed an interesting lefty arm that he probably knew pretty well. The NRIs are either going to force the issue, or they won't and will be let go at their particular deadlines. I really don't understand all the hand-wringing over one 40-man roster spot. Declan Cronin bounced around a few times. There will probably be a few days at the end of ST where everybody's DFA-ing dudes, and only the cream of the crop will get grabbed. If Horn is so problematic, he'll easily wind up in Charlotte. 

[WestEddy]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I would agree, that is an awful lot of LH bullpen-only arms.

And it's not a lot of bullpen-only lefty arms for a team with horrible reliever depth in the high minors to sift through in spring training. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

What supports this? 

I have a feeling that no matter what I say you'll spin it. But just compare their numbers and make sure you note that I said "right now he is a better nothing." If you can't look at the stats and see that, I'm not going to spend any time debating it if you see it differently.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

This trade would’ve made more sense if it was the Cubs receiving Horn and the Sox receiving Thompson.  A situational lefty isn’t a very dire need for a team competing for last place.  The Sox should be the team acquiring young starters, not trading them away.

I still don't see why some don't get it.

Sox are stockpiling as much AAA+ nothing's hoping they they become somethings. Even if they are older and not likely to be on the next Sox contender,LH pitchers who can K hitters are usually in demand . The dearth of talent was so bad the only way to try to build up the system is find as many guys capable of turning a corner approaching prime years who can be traded for higher end talent in the low minors (AA or lower).

All this trading is likely to continue but they started with very little to work with.

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I still don't see why some don't get it.

Sox are stockpiling as much AAA+ nothing's hoping they they become somethings. Even if they are older and not likely to be on the next Sox contender,LH pitchers who can K hitters are usually in demand . The dearth of talent was so bad the only way to try to build up the system is find as many guys capable of turning a corner approaching prime years who can be traded for higher end talent in the low minors (AA or lower).

All this trading is likely to continue but they started with very little to work with.

Stockpiling AAA nothings while hoping they become something is fine when those guys cost zero, or when they cost an Aaron Bummer that they want to get rid of anyway.

The problem is - if this guy turns out to be tolerable, puts up an ERA in the mid 4s in the big leagues next year, is he going to bring back anything worth more than a strong arm, struggling guy from AA who is on the lower end of some team's prospect list? Unless he turns out really darn good, which would be surprising from his minor league numbers, the best you might hope to get back is...approximately a Matthew Thompson level wild card. 

If you're signing guys or bringing in NRIs to fill these spots, that's fine, I get that. I think they've been a little reckless with money this offseason (Maldonado), but that's at least understandable. If one of them turns into something valuable, maybe you can trade one of them for some A-ball player.

But when you're giving the A-ball player up, and at the same time losing a 40 man spot that could do exactly what you say you want to do, be filled by a AAA+ nothing gotten for free, you're doing it backwards. You are hoping that, if they're lucky, they might be able to get back what they just gave up for this guy.

Big deal? Probably not, unlikely to have given up the next Max Scherzer once again, but a decent red flag. You've outlined the correct plan, trying to bring in talent/wild cards using AAA+ guys, and this deal is the opposite of that plan - giving up talent/wild cards to bring in a AAA+ guy.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Stockpiling AAA nothings while hoping they become something is fine when those guys cost zero, or when they cost an Aaron Bummer that they want to get rid of anyway.

The problem is - if this guy turns out to be tolerable, puts up an ERA in the mid 4s in the big leagues next year, is he going to bring back anything worth more than a strong arm, struggling guy from AA who is on the lower end of some team's prospect list? Unless he turns out really darn good, which would be surprising from his minor league numbers, the best you might hope to get back is...approximately a Matthew Thompson level wild card. 

If you're signing guys or bringing in NRIs to fill these spots, that's fine, I get that. I think they've been a little reckless with money this offseason (Maldonado), but that's at least understandable. If one of them turns into something valuable, maybe you can trade one of them for some A-ball player.

But when you're giving the A-ball player up, and at the same time losing a 40 man spot that could do exactly what you say you want to do, be filled by a AAA+ nothing gotten for free, you're doing it backwards. You are hoping that, if they're lucky, they might be able to get back what they just gave up for this guy.

Big deal? Probably not, unlikely to have given up the next Max Scherzer once again, but a decent red flag. You've outlined the correct plan, trying to bring in talent/wild cards using AAA+ guys, and this deal is the opposite of that plan - giving up talent/wild cards to bring in a AAA+ guy.

FWIW, Triple-A stat cast data does exist and is out there publicly if you know where to look. Horn's breaking stuff is absolutely filthy.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Stockpiling AAA nothings while hoping they become something is fine when those guys cost zero, or when they cost an Aaron Bummer that they want to get rid of anyway.

The problem is - if this guy turns out to be tolerable, puts up an ERA in the mid 4s in the big leagues next year, is he going to bring back anything worth more than a strong arm, struggling guy from AA who is on the lower end of some team's prospect list? Unless he turns out really darn good, which would be surprising from his minor league numbers, the best you might hope to get back is...approximately a Matthew Thompson level wild card. 

If you're signing guys or bringing in NRIs to fill these spots, that's fine, I get that. I think they've been a little reckless with money this offseason (Maldonado), but that's at least understandable. If one of them turns into something valuable, maybe you can trade one of them for some A-ball player.

But when you're giving the A-ball player up, and at the same time losing a 40 man spot that could do exactly what you say you want to do, be filled by a AAA+ nothing gotten for free, you're doing it backwards. You are hoping that, if they're lucky, they might be able to get back what they just gave up for this guy.

Big deal? Probably not, unlikely to have given up the next Max Scherzer once again, but a decent red flag. You've outlined the correct plan, trying to bring in talent/wild cards using AAA+ guys, and this deal is the opposite of that plan - giving up talent/wild cards to bring in a AAA+ guy.

I know you want to run the front office like an algorithm. Do something the wrong way enough times and it's likely to bite you in the ass trading younger minor league guys for older minor league guys.

At least they don't have enough talent to get 36 yr old vets the Sox have to pay $10M for a year.

I don't know if what Getz is doing now will work. He's just hoping you get enough young vets and 26 yr old minor leaguers that someone is going to blossom even for a short period to trade them or in the case of the 26y yr old minor leaguers either trade them or see what they have for another year of 2.

[Chicago White Sox]

30 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

FWIW, Triple-A stat cast data does exist and is out there publicly if you know where to look. Horn's breaking stuff is absolutely filthy.

Any suggestions on where to look?

[Chicago White Sox]

Write-up on Horn from BA where he ranked the Cubs’ 28th prospect:

Quote

BA Grade: 40/Medium

Track Record: Horn had Tommy John surgery his sophomore year at McLennan (Texas) JC, but he transferred to Auburn and returned to lead the Tigers to the 2019 College World Series. He held opponents scoreless in three of his four starts during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and was drafted by the White Sox in the fifth round. The Cubs acquired Horn for Ryan Tepera at the 2021 trade deadline and made him a reliever, which led to a breakout. Horn bounded up the Cubs system and went 7-3, 4.21 in 45 appearances across Double-A and Triple-A in 2023.

Scouting Report: Horn has power stuff but is not quite consistent with it. His fastball sits 94-96 mph, touches 98 and gets swings and misses when he throws it over the plate. His sharp, 84-86 mph slider flashes plus and is a wipeout offering at its best. His big-breaking, 75-79 mph curveball with sweep and depth is an above-average pitch that he can land on the backfoot of righties. Horn has plenty of stuff, but he struggles to repeat his delivery and has a violent arm action that yields well below-average control and significant injury risk.

The Future: Horn’s power stuff makes him a potential low-leverage relief option. His major league debut should come in 2024. The Cubs added him to their 40-man roster after the season.

Scouting Grades Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 30 | Control:

 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Any suggestions on where to look?

https://www.prospectslive.com/aaa-stuff

[Balta1701]

53 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Write-up on Horn from BA where he ranked the Cubs’ 28th prospect:

 

Did you miss something in the copying or was his control so poor they didn’t score it?

[T R U]

52 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Write-up on Horn from BA where he ranked the Cubs’ 28th prospect:

 

Hate this one. Yet again the Sox, who are hurting for starting pitchers, trade a young prospect for a marginal return. One platoon outfielder and now a low leverage reliever. In what world is that in the blueprints for a rebuilding team??

This organization is just run by clowns, starting at the very top with Bozo. 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I know you want to run the front office like an algorithm. Do something the wrong way enough times and it's likely to bite you in the ass trading younger minor league guys for older minor league guys.

At least they don't have enough talent to get 36 yr old vets the Sox have to pay $10M for a year.

I don't know if what Getz is doing now will work. He's just hoping you get enough young vets and 26 yr old minor leaguers that someone is going to blossom even for a short period to trade them or in the case of the 26y yr old minor leaguers either trade them or see what they have for another year of 2.

This is precisely how they wound up having to pay mediocre vets $17 million per year. They gave away so many pieces to cover needs that by the end they had more needs than they could fill. 

Here Getz is not trying to find guys he can turn into a 23 year old starter, he’s giving away those 23 year olds to fill the 23rd and 24th slots on his roster. It is the exact opposite of what you’re saying.

Getz is doing this because he thinks he knows these guys better than everyone else. Maybe that’s true and he has gotten two guys worth more than others think. Maybe he’s unloading Hahn’s trash and taking what he can get for them. That’s all plausible, but forgive me until I wait for evidence that these guys are massively smarter when they’re acquiring players who have little power or who walk the world.

And yes, eventually this blows up in your face. These are the types of moves the Twins should be making to fill holes in the back side of their roster and maybe push them up to 92 wins rather than 89.

These are not moves that prep for Trades.  For the white Sox to get back more than they gave up in these two young pitchers, the guys who came back will need to be so good that the White Sox won’t want to trade them.

Getz is paying over market value right now. If it works it is to his credit. If it doesn’t I hope we’ve learned enough not to discount it with “oh we didn’t give up that much.”

[mac9001]

This is setting a bad precedent. Twice now Getz flipped relatively young SP prospects for AAAA fillers you could easily pick up for a few bucks. If you're gonna trade young SP prospects at least package both of them and consolidate into something with upside. If Fletcher or Horn are on the 2026 White Sox the rebuild is an abject failure.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

9 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

It would be pretty sad if Mena has success with the DBacks and the Cubs Pitch Lab turns Thompson into something.

Why is "Cubs Pitch Lab" capitalized as if it exists? Who exactly have the Cubs developed recently? Justin Steele....and...?

[hi8is]

Rebuilding the rebuild. So fun.

[Timmy U]

Meh.  Matt Thompson is a phenomenal athlete, but with everyone the Sox traded for or drafted in the last two years, he had been passed.  Maybe the Cubs unlock him, but he was destined to be a minor league reliever for the Sox. I regret losing Mena way more, but early on I am going to trust the new regime to keep the players they like.

[Kyyle23]

7 hours ago, hi8is said:

Rebuilding the rebuild. So fun.

It’s like playing goldeneye back in the day and you have the a full magazine in your gun but you still reload it after one shot even though you don’t need to, because that’s what you are supposed to do 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I can't believe people are upset about losing Matt Thompson. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

15 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

You think Getz is raising the floor of the organization with most of these moves?  These aren’t big ceiling plays but depth seems better 

They're self-scouting.  They're getting what they can for players they feel will not be part of the future.  People have been wanting them to do this for years.