Sox trade Matthew Thompson to Cubs for old friend Bailey Horn

[T R U]

17 minutes ago, Quin said:

If I had to diagnose this thread, I'd say it's more about the fact that Getz is trying to half-ass build a "win-now" roster of older guys while trading youth.

I'm ambivalent towards moving Thompson overall cause he got buried. But it might have been worth seeing him as a reliever.

This isn't the Mena trade, which reeks of "call J.G. Wentworth, because I need a warm body in RF now!" The Sox are familiar with Horn, he's a lefty reliever which (as many have pointed out) is worth its weight in gold (or Nicky Lopez, Mike Soroka +++). He could become very valuable, or he could be s%*#! It's just that Getz' philosophy is "with Paul DeJong's glove, anything is possible for our pitchers. Empty the farm! Go!"

I agree with all of this, it's like they aren't picking a direction and committing to it. I loved the Santos trade, and then the Mena trade was like the total opposite direction.

[WestEddy]

5 hours ago, T R U said:

The upside of a prospect clicking and figuring it out is way more valuable to this team than a lefty reliever. I don't care what his name is, I care more about what he could be for this team in the future. Rebuilding teams don't need to be trading prospects for low level middle relief. Its absurd.

Matt Thompson is no longer a "prospect", as we use that word. He has quietly slipped off all but one top 30 lists. So, Getz is at a crossroads with Thompson. Do they now start working with him as a reliever? And when he still can't throw strikes, teach him a knuckleball? Then when that doesn't work, try him at 2B? Or they can deal him as a change-of-scenery candidate, or possible reliever, and get some value for him. And yes, a AAA lefty who is getting good reviews in his sick stuff is definite value. 

It's about resources. They have limited pitching coach resources at each level, so they can either work with Thompson, yet again, on figuring out anything that will get him to throw strikes more consistently, or they can use those limited resources on the wave of 5-7 guys right behind Thompson who already throw strikes and have a lot more helium in their own prospect cases. 

This move is completely in line with the rebuild. The last 3 trades brought back 4 players, each with 6 years of major league control. 

 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Autumn Dreamin said:

Maybe Horn is that long term lefty piece in the pen to replace Bummer and Crochet (if he makes the switch to starting).

Or maybe he isn't. But they turned a rental of 30yo journeyman RHRP Keynan Middleton into a RH starter who has Thompson's positives of youth (22yo) and workload (222.2 IP over the last two seasons) with better control (3.3 BB/9) and better results (3.58 ERA).

Both are Rule 5 guys, but one seems closer to earning a roster spot. You can hold both and hope that Thompson makes a step this year that he hasn't made in the previous two...or you can cash in now if you think it's unlikely that he raises his value (to this team or another) before hitting minor league free agency.

And in the meantime you have several years of a lefty with good stuff who you can keep or trade as you please. Horn finished 2021 at A+ with a WHIP approaching 2 and an ERA well over 5. He repeated the level the next year, and dominated with a .700 WHIP and 0 ER in 10 appearances before being promoted. 

His first time at AA, he struggled again with a high WHIP (but a reasonable 3.46 ERA). Repeating AA last season, he dominates again with a <1 WHIP and 2 ERA before another quick promotion. He struggles again with a high WHIP his first time in AAA...Sensing a pattern?

I get that the Sox currently have Schrodinger's 40 man, where spots are either precious and limited or full of unsalvageable detritus who should be cut without hesitation, depending on what allows for the harshest judgement in the moment.

But the Sox are apparently convinced by Horn's demonstrated capacity for adjustment and progression that Thompson hasn't flashed yet (and reasonably confident in their ability to backfill future needs for RHSP with guys like Juan Carela and the upcoming crop of draft arms).

I'm not sure you get to accuse the move of being shortsighted if your "analysis" consists of "don't trade starters for relievers" or 23 < 26.

Sounds like we could have waited for Horn to fail at the MLB level because he sucks after every promotion and then traded Dalquist for him.

 

[T R U]

4 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Matt Thompson is no longer a "prospect", as we use that word. He has quietly slipped off all but one top 30 lists. So, Getz is at a crossroads with Thompson. Do they now start working with him as a reliever? And when he still can't throw strikes, teach him a knuckleball? Then when that doesn't work, try him at 2B? Or they can deal him as a change-of-scenery candidate, or possible reliever, and get some value for him. And yes, a AAA lefty who is getting good reviews in his sick stuff is definite value. 

It's about resources. They have limited pitching coach resources at each level, so they can either work with Thompson, yet again, on figuring out anything that will get him to throw strikes more consistently, or they can use those limited resources on the wave of 5-7 guys right behind Thompson who already throw strikes and have a lot more helium in their own prospect cases. 

This move is completely in line with the rebuild. The last 3 trades brought back 4 players, each with 6 years of major league control. 

 

Thompson is 23 years old, hes still a prospect. Just because you aren't a top prospect doesn't mean you aren't a prospect.

I admire your outlook on this team, at the same time I read most of your posts and whisper "wtf?" under my breath as I read them.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Matt Thompson is no longer a "prospect", as we use that word. He has quietly slipped off all but one top 30 lists. So, Getz is at a crossroads with Thompson. Do they now start working with him as a reliever? And when he still can't throw strikes, teach him a knuckleball? Then when that doesn't work, try him at 2B? Or they can deal him as a change-of-scenery candidate, or possible reliever, and get some value for him. And yes, a AAA lefty who is getting good reviews in his sick stuff is definite value. 

Except of course that lefty also can't throw strikes.

[WestEddy]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Except of course that lefty also can't throw strikes.

He did in Kannapolis. I guess he forgot everything Chris Getz personally taught him when the Cubs meddled. 

Edited February 28 by WestEddy

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

He did in Kannapolis. I guess Chris Getz personally taught him how to be great, but he forgot it when the Cubs meddled. 

So you're ripping Thompson for not being good at AA, and your support for Horn is 27 good innings at A-ball. Yet you don't see any distinction here.

[WestEddy]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

So you're ripping Thompson for not being good at AA, and your support for Horn is 27 good innings at A-ball. Yet you don't see any distinction here.

Who's ripping Thompson? He's lost all prospect momentum, and now he's a project. He's not bad. He's just not standing out from the guys behind him. I'm not alone in that assessment, either, as he has fallen off of pretty much all prospect evaluators' radar. you keep ignoring that. 

You also seem to ignore that, all things being equal, a left-handed pitcher has a bit more value than a righty due to rarity. You think the Sox have too many, already.

I just find it weird that you don't think an organization ever gets to trade a player until there's no possible way any other team can see him as useful. Maybe there were still some fixes they could work with Scott Ruffcorn on. I think they cut bait there, too soon. 

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

Just now, WestEddy said:

Who's ripping Thompson? He's lost all prospect momentum, and now he's a project. He's not bad. He's just not standing out from the guys behind him. I'm not alone in that assessment, either, as he has fallen off of pretty much all prospect evaluators' radar. you keep ignoring that. 

You also seem to ignore that, all things being equal, a left-handed pitcher has a bit more value than a righty due to rarity. You think the Sox have too many, already.

I just find it weird that you don't think an organization ever gets to trade a player until there's no possible way any other team can see him as useful. Maybe there were still some fixes they could work with Scott Ruffcorn on. I think they cut bait there, too soon. 

 

 

 

Quote

Do they now start working with him as a reliever? And when he still can't throw strikes, teach him a knuckleball? Then when that doesn't work, try him at 2B

The above sure sounds like you're ripping Thompson to me. 

And yes, it is rather weird and frankly bizarre that you look at 27 innings of a guy at Kannapolis in 2021 and think "See he can get his walk rate down" and then say that a guy who had 84 innings with a comparable walk rate in 2022 at Winston-Salem is a guy who has "lost all prospect momentum".

[GreenSox]

We didn't have any young middle infielders ready to go; so I get signing DeJong; and even trading for Lopez (although he's tougher to "get").

I get wanting to avoid a "scorched earth" 50 win team.  That doesn't do anybody any good.
But signing Maldanado  (we already had 2 defensive catchers), and then Moustakas,  when we should be going for roster flexibility, and then listening to Pedro talk about expecting players to hit well because they have  "done it before" just makes me wonder if there is a plan.

Maybe this particular trade for Horn makes sense; but in general, trading for relievers, trading away young prospects who don't need to be 40-manned, is pretty much the opposite of what a team in this position should be doing.

Edited February 28 by GreenSox

[Chick Mercedes]

On 2/27/2024 at 11:35 AM, greg775 said:

The name Bailey Horn reminds me of George Bailey.

If George Bailey was a porn star

[WestEddy]

27 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The above sure sounds like you're ripping Thompson to me. 

And yes, it is rather weird and frankly bizarre that you look at 27 innings of a guy at Kannapolis in 2021 and think "See he can get his walk rate down" and then say that a guy who had 84 innings with a comparable walk rate in 2022 at Winston-Salem is a guy who has "lost all prospect momentum".

I say that Thompson's lost all prospect momentum, because nobody who evaluates Sox prospects considers Thompson to be an important prospect to pay attention to anymore. Perhaps you can put out your own top 30 so we can marvel. 

You don't seem to be able to sense when somebody's making a joke. That's too bad. 

[WestEddy]

36 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The above sure sounds like you're ripping Thompson to me. 

And if you think that me suggesting that the next step would be to try Thompson as a reliever, then teach him a knuckler is "ripping" on him, you're way more sensitive than I am. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 2/27/2024 at 8:37 PM, mac9001 said:

If Fletcher or Horn are on the 2026 White Sox the rebuild is an abject failure.

I don't understand this quote from you at all.

If Fletcher and Horn are both on the 2026 Sox wouldn't that mean they both had somewhat successful 24 and 25 seasons ? Wouldn't it also mean that the Sox could have good players they successfully traded for for another 4 years after 2025 ?

How would that translate into any type of failure ?

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

How would that translate into any type of failure ?

Because teams can't compete without 26 perennial All-Stars and eventual HOFers on the roster. At this point, the negative people are interpreting anything and everything as failure. "Won the division?!? How pathetic!!!"

[WhiteSox2023]

53 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Because teams can't compete without 26 perennial All-Stars and eventual HOFers on the roster. At this point, the negative people are interpreting anything and everything as failure. "Won the division?!? How pathetic!!!"

You are going overboard.  If the Sox won the division this year or any year, Sox fans would be ecstatic, including the negative fans.  The reason there are so many negative Sox fans is because the Sox have only won their mediocre division 3 times in the last 20+ years.  Is that good enough for you?

Edited March 6 by WhiteSox2023

[WestEddy]

12 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

You are going overboard.  If the Sox won the division this year or any year, Sox fans would be ecstatic, including the negative fans.  The reason there are so many negative Sox fans is because the Sox have only won their mediocre division 3 times in the last 20+ years.  Is that good enough for you?

Okay, I guess I'm getting as negative towards the frustrated people. I would think that if Fletcher was an effective platoon piece still on the team, and Bailey Horn was one of the late inning options, those would be good developments. 

[Balta1701]

20 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Okay, I guess I'm getting as negative towards the frustrated people. I would think that if Fletcher was an effective platoon piece still on the team, and Bailey Horn was one of the late inning options, those would be good developments. 

yes they would be. 

That doesn't change the problems with these two deals. 

[WhiteSox2023]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

yes they would be. 

That doesn't change the problems with these two deals. 

Too old for the Sox next window of competition, or gave up too much to acquire them?

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Too old for the Sox next window of competition, or gave up too much to acquire them?

Gave up too much for guys who are likely to produce too low of an impact. 

[mac9001]

10 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I don't understand this quote from you at all.

If Fletcher and Horn are both on the 2026 Sox wouldn't that mean they both had somewhat successful 24 and 25 seasons ? Wouldn't it also mean that the Sox could have good players they successfully traded for for another 4 years after 2025 ?

How would that translate into any type of failure ?

Because on a competition team with ambitions of playoff baseball guys like this don't have a roster spot. If they're on the team because they vastly outperformed expectations great. The more likely scenario is Horn bounces between AAA and the bigs filling in as an ineffective lefty and Fletcher never hits his weight and at best fills in as a 4th OFer/limited platoon ABs in a corner spot. Both extremely replaceable roles that can easily be filled by brining in a bunch of NRIs in the spring. The issue I have with the moves for these guys is you're just wasting prospect capital for seat filler. If you're gonna move young SP prospects at least consolidate and aim for quality.

The whole off-season strategy seems to be around (poor) quantity with limited upside. It doesn't appear Getz had a lot of money to spend, but getting guys like this has minimal impact on long term success, they're easily replaceable for a minimal cost.

Edited March 7 by mac9001

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, mac9001 said:

Because on a competition team with ambitions of playoff baseball guys like this don't have a roster spot. If they're on the team because they vastly outperformed expectations great. The more likely scenario is Horn bounces between AAA and the bigs filling in as an ineffective lefty and Fletcher never hits his weight and at best fills in as a 4th OFer/limited platoon ABs in a corner spot. Both extremely replaceable roles that can easily be filled by brining in a bunch of NRIs in the spring. The issue I have with the moves for these guys is you're just wasting prospect capital for seat filler. If you're gonna move young SP prospects at least consolidate and aim for quality.

The whole off-season strategy seems to be around (poor) quantity with limited upside. It doesn't appear Getz had a lot of money to spend, but getting guys like this has minimal impact on long term success, they're easily replaceable for a minimal cost.

“Limited platoon at bats” as a lefty is basically a starting player with RHP being dominant. Dodgers have about 3 platoons projected on their roster at SS and 2 in the OF.

[mac9001]

Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

“Limited platoon at bats” as a lefty is basically a starting player with RHP being dominant. Dodgers have about 3 platoons projected on their roster at SS and 2 in the OF.

I didn't say effective platoon ABs. Finding a lefty that can at least hit right handed fastballs and put up league average production is not a significant cost. If that's what you need to fill out your roster it's not going to strain your long term financial flexibility to go spend some money. If you can develop that internally that's great, but given all available data you can't realistically expect that from Fletcher. At this point a realistic expectation is probably a wRC+ of 75-85. In a platoon role maybe you get him up to league average, but at this point he's probably the only viable option we have for RF, so he's going to see his far share of lefties.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, mac9001 said:

I didn't say effective platoon ABs. Finding a lefty that can at least hit right handed fastballs and put up league average production is not a significant cost. If that's what you need to fill out your roster it's not going to strain your long term financial flexibility to go spend some money. If you can develop that internally that's great, but given all available data you can't realistically expect that from Fletcher. At this point a realistic expectation is probably a wRC+ of 75-85. In a platoon role maybe you get him up to league average, but at this point he's probably the only viable option we have for RF, so he's going to see his far share of lefties.

Wrong. That’s the whole point of Pillar being on the roster.

For how bad the team will be, they should play Fletcher against lefties though. Development year.

Edited March 7 by Bob Sacamano

[mac9001]

14 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Wrong. That’s the whole point of Pillar being on the roster.

For how bad the team will be, they should play Fletcher against lefties though. Development year.

There is no point to having Pillar on the team. There's at most 1 or 2 other teams that would even consider wasting a roster spot on him. Short of about 10 games in May last year when he went on a tear Pillar likely couldn't make the cut on most teams AAA rosters.