2024 Priorities

[Quin]

Everyone has said my goals so I add Pedro's goals:

1) Gotta go FASTs

2) Get on the train

3) 500 at-bats each for DeJong, Lopez and Maldonado. Moustakas gets playing time over Sosa, Ramos or Colas. Also possibly Garrett Crochet.

4) Only lose games by 4 runs, not 5 runs.

5) Trademark the phrase "the Sox are gri-falling apart."

6) Get the Sox to add "Pedro's Grifol's Grilled Durian Fruit Stand" to the concourse. 

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If they were truly a ".500 team" like the poster I replied to suggested, I'd imagine they'd convince themselves not to sell guys.

I don't think there is a snowball's chance in hell they are a .500 team, but if by some bizarro world scenario they are you're probably right. This org loves to shoot itself in the foot like no other.

[Tnetennba]

2 minutes ago, Quin said:

Everyone has said my goals so I add Pedro's goals:

1) Gotta go FASTs

2) Get on the train

3) 500 at-bats each for DeJong, Lopez and Maldonado. Moustakas gets playing time over Sosa, Ramos or Colas. Also possibly Garrett Crochet.

4) Only lose games by 4 runs, not 5 runs.

5) Trademark the phrase "the Sox are gri-falling apart."

6) Get the Sox to add "Pedro's Grifol's Grilled Durian Fruit Stand" to the concourse. 

You forgot "pray that JR is too cheap to can his inept ass so he can hang onto the delusion he's good at his job for just a little longer."

[WestEddy]

3 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Soroka and Kopech "breaking out" would be turning into decent 3rd or 4th starters that can actually pitch 150 innings.  That would be awesome, it would still leave us short 3 starters once Cease is traded and about half a dozen decent relievers.

You know? I'm not really worried about their bullpen. Between Knebel, Shaw, Barlow, Jake Cousins, Justin Anderson, Tanner Banks, Deivi Garcia, Jordan Leasure, Dominic Leone, and Alex Speas, Jimmy Lambert, I think they'll be okay. 

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, WestEddy said:

You know? I'm not really worried about their bullpen. Between Knebel, Shaw, Barlow, Jake Cousins, Justin Anderson, Tanner Banks, Deivi Garcia, Jordan Leasure, Dominic Leone, and Alex Speas, Jimmy Lambert, I think they'll be okay. 

They will do a good job limiting it to a 6-3 loss. It would be ironic in a year they just say "f*** it" that a bunch of random guys they got for nothing outperforms Hahn's 50  million dollar pens.

[WestEddy]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

What are the odds that everyone breaks out? That no one gets hurt (including Soroka and Kopech), and that things go well for everyone?

People were predicting that for the roster last year, that everyone would be excellent and break out, and that might have been enough to get them back into competing for a weak AL Central. That was with a stronger roster than this one, and we saw how it went.

I'm not sure what you're getting at. I think that Soroka and Kopech have a chance to become good, not great, versions of their former ceilings. Kopech and Soroka as reliable #3s, I don't think that's absurd wish-casting. 

 

[South Side Hit Men]

4 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

A good team will need about 40 WAR. Say absolute best case scenario you get 5 from Moncada, 4 from Eloy, and 6 from Robert -- now find 25 more on the roster. There's no way bro.

The Sox have several players with a much higher recent (2021-2023) fWAR seasons. Not all will hit or exceed these marks, but in a 80% year many can exceed their current ZIPS projections and get the team close to that 40 fWAR mark.

Not likely, but could get close if several players go better than expected. If they are smart and play a younger bench to get them experience (2B/SS/RF rotates 4-5 games a week). Can also gain experience for solid role players, perhaps an unexpected starter for the next few years.

2024 ZIPS fWAR / Position Player (2024 Age) (Highest fWAR 2021-2023) - Optimistic 2024 fWAR

15.5 Starting Lineup 19.0

• 1.4 C Max Stassi (33) (2.9 in 2021) 1.5
• 1.5 1B Andrew Vaughn (26) (0.3 in 2023) 1.5
• 1.1 2B Nicky Lopez (29) (6.0 in 2021) 2.0
• 2.0 3B Yoan Moncada (29) (4.0 in 2021) 3.5
• 1.3 SS Paul DeJong (30) (1.3 in 2021) 1.3
• 1.6 LF Andrew Benintendi (29) (2.8 in 2022) 2.0
• 3.9 CF Luis Robert Junior (26) (5.0 in 2023) 4.0
• 1.0 RF Dominic Fletcher (26) (0.6 in 2023) 1.5
• 1.7 DH Eloy Jimenez (27) (1.7 in 2022) 1.7

2.5 Bench 3.0

• 0.3 C Korey Lee (25) (-0.3 in 2022) 0.5
• 0.2 1B/OF Oscar Colas (25) (-1.3 in 2023) 0.5
• 0.7 INF Lenyn Sosa (24) (-0.3 in 2022) 1.0
• 1.3 INF/OF Danny Mendick (30) (0.8 in 2022) 1.0

8.9 Starting Pitching 12.0

• 3.4 SP1 Dylan Cease (28) (4.5 in 2021) 4.0
• 1.4 SP2 Erick Fedde (31) (1.2 in 2021) 2.0
• 0.8 SP3 Michael Kopech (28) (1.7 in 2021) 2.0
• 1.0 SP4 Michael Soroka (26) (-0.4 in 2023) 2.0
• 1.3 SP5 Chris Flexen (29) (3.0 in 2021) 2.0

 

1.8 Relief Pitching 5.7

• 0.4 CL John Brebbia (34) (0.9 in 2022) 1.0
• 0.1 SU Jordan Leasure (25) (Rookie) 0.5
• -0.3 SU Tim Hill (34) (0.5 in 2022) 0.5
• 0.3 MI Prelander Berroa (24) (Rookie) 0.5
• 0.0 MI Deivi Garcia (25) (0.1 in 2021) 0.5
• 0.7 MI Shane Drohan (25) (Rookie) 0.7
• 0.2 Swing Touki Toussaint (28) (0.4 in 2021) 0.5
• 0.4 Swing Garrett Crochet (25) (1.4 in 2021) 1.5

28.7 Totals 39.7

[chitownsportsfan]

Honestly surprised ZIPS has that rosy of a 80% percentile projection for the SP. That gives me a little hope.

[WestEddy]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If they were truly a ".500 team" like the poster I replied to suggested, I'd imagine they'd convince themselves not to sell guys.

I didn't suggest that. I said their pitching wouldn't be "bad". All I did was add up possible win totals, and came up with 75 wins. Are you suggesting you know that a couple weeks of the season will get wiped out and they'll only play 150 games?

If the White Sox were truly pushing .500 in mid July, and they were in first place, I think they'd have to make any effort to win the division. That really means punting the trade of Cease to the off-season, if he wasn't gone already. 

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

I disagree.  As I said in my earlier post...if healthy the lineup looks good to me.  As they say...that's why they play the games.

Bennie, Robert, Yoan and Eloy have all been good. Vaughn is a hitter. I don't really have a problem with a Fletcher / Pillar platoon in RF. That will be way better than anything we've run out there since maybe Dye. If DeJong and Lopez can just be their best 1-WAR selves until Ramos and Monty get there, I don't think that's an historically horrible 1-8. I believe Maldonado will be a black hole, but if he's a steadying influence on Soroka and Kopech, so be it. I'd rather Stassi get most of the starts. That may become the reality by the end of the season. 

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, Tnetennba said:

I don't think there is a snowball's chance in hell they are a .500 team, but if by some bizarro world scenario they are you're probably right. This org loves to shoot itself in the foot like no other.

The worst they'd do is, if Cease was still on the team, they'd hold onto him. I think Monty and Ramos would take over from DeJong and/or Lopez if they were choking. Different GM's (but everybody thinks all GMs are the same under JR), but the Sox have only ever made nominal deadline moves. Utility infielders and bullpen guys. Trading Cease next off-season wouldn't be disastrous if they got a playoff berth. 

[WestEddy]

17 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

They will do a good job limiting it to a 6-3 loss. It would be ironic in a year they just say "f*** it" that a bunch of random guys they got for nothing outperforms Hahn's 50  million dollar pens.

Hahn's teams and bullpens were never well-constructed. And that list of guys I gave aren't complete f*ckups who are good for 8 runs every time they trot out of the bullpen. They're all competent major league arms or prospects. 

[poppysox]

5 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Bennie, Robert, Yoan and Eloy have all been good. Vaughn is a hitter. I don't really have a problem with a Fletcher / Pillar platoon in RF. That will be way better than anything we've run out there since maybe Dye. If DeJong and Lopez can just be their best 1-WAR selves until Ramos and Monty get there, I don't think that's an historically horrible 1-8. I believe Maldonado will be a black hole, but if he's a steadying influence on Soroka and Kopech, so be it. I'd rather Stassi get most of the starts. That may become the reality by the end of the season. 

Maldonado is a "black hole" that has played a big part on winning teams.  This lineup is better than last year's opening day lineup that was picked by most pros to win the Central.

[South Side Hit Men]

22 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Honestly surprised ZIPS has that rosy of a 80% percentile projection for the SP. That gives me a little hope.

The Optimistic fWAR were my esitmates using current ZIPS, looking at recent success, putting a plausible substantial improvement for a few players over ZIPS.

Here are the actual 80% fWAR projects, many of which exceed my optimistic estimates. And to reiterate, I don't believe a team is going to have most players outperform their projections, but there is a good case for several players if healthy to exceed current expectations.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/

80% fWAR Projections vs. My Optimistic Projections

80% fWAR = 47.3 vs. 39.7 SSHM Optimistic Projections

24.9 Starting Lineup 19.0

• 1.8 C Max Stassi (33) (2.9 in 2021) 1.5
• 2.8 1B Andrew Vaughn (26) (0.3 in 2023) 1.5
• 1.8 2B Nicky Lopez (29) (6.0 in 2021) 2.0
• 3.0 3B Yoan Moncada (29) (4.0 in 2021) 3.5
• 2.3 SS Paul DeJong (30) (1.3 in 2021) 1.3
• 2.6 LF Andrew Benintendi (29) (2.8 in 2022) 2.0
• 5.2 CF Luis Robert Junior (26) (5.0 in 2023) 4.0
• 2.7 RF Dominic Fletcher (26) (0.6 in 2023) 1.5
• 2.7 DH Eloy Jimenez (27) (1.7 in 2022) 1.7

6.1 Bench 3.0

• 1.1 C Korey Lee (25) (-0.3 in 2022) 0.5
• 1.2 1B/OF Oscar Colas (25) (-1.3 in 2023) 0.5
• 1.7 INF Lenyn Sosa (24) (-0.3 in 2022) 1.0
• 2.1 INF/OF Danny Mendick (30) (0.8 in 2022) 1.0

11.1 Starting Pitching 12.0

• 4.1 SP1 Dylan Cease (28) (4.5 in 2021) 4.0
• 2.1 SP2 Erick Fedde (31) (1.2 in 2021) 2.0
• 1.7 SP3 Michael Kopech (28) (1.7 in 2021) 2.0
• 1.7 SP4 Michael Soroka (26) (-0.4 in 2023) 2.0
• 1.5 SP5 Chris Flexen (29) (3.0 in 2021) 2.0

5.2 Relief Pitching 5.7

• 0.8 CL John Brebbia (34) (0.9 in 2022) 1.0
• 0.6 SU Jordan Leasure (25) (Rookie) 0.5
• 0.0 SU Tim Hill (34) (0.5 in 2022) 0.5
• -- MI Prelander Berroa (24) (Rookie) 0.5
• 0.5 MI Deivi Garcia (25) (0.1 in 2021) 0.5
• 1.4 MI Shane Drohan (25) (Rookie) 0.7
• 0.9 Swing Touki Toussaint (28) (0.4 in 2021) 0.5
• 1.0 Swing Garrett Crochet (25) (1.4 in 2021) 1.5

 

A net 30.0 optimistic fWAR (vs. my 39.7) is likely a more realistic overall net ceiling in terms of outperformers vs. underperformers, plus poor roster decisions and overreliance on veterans like Moose, Maldonado and others who shouldn't be considered for this team, but there is still a somewhat reasonable chance at a substantial year over year improvement if a lot of things go right.

Edited March 6 by South Side Hit Men

[chitownsportsfan]

That 80% projection on Vaughn is wild. And by wild I mean puke.

[vilehoopster]

What I want is to keep all our good prospects down in AAA for pretty much the entire year. Keep them together in Charlotte and let them build confidence and enjoy being on a winning team. 

Keep them all down there: Montgomery, Quero, Ramos; those young arms, keep them down there, starting with Crochet, and add to it Nastrini, Cannon, and Eder. Let them all build innings and build some confidence also. 

I would be fine with bring a bunch up in September to get their feet wet, but try to keep them in AAA and have a really outstanding year and team in Charlotte. 

I think we should try to muddle through this year with our inexpensive veterans and try to get lucky and win 70 games. Knowing that we have all that talent down in Charlotte will make this year a lot, a lot easier to take. 

 

 

[Ducksnort]

6 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Vaughn gets way too much leeway. He's as much a face of the failed rebuild as any of the other guys, including Yoan, Eloy, TA, Giolito etc. You trot him out there for 150 games at 1st and see what happens. If he doesn't hit this year, he's another guy that will have to be replaced if we want to win. Can't carry a replacement level 1B that hits righty.

Certainly doesn't help his case with the fact that his predecessors were Jose Abreu, Paul Konerko, and Frank Thomas for basically 3 consecutive decades. All southside legends and one 1st ballot hof'er.

Edited March 6 by ScootsMcGoots

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

Bennie, Robert, Yoan and Eloy have all been good. Vaughn is a hitter. I don't really have a problem with a Fletcher / Pillar platoon in RF. That will be way better than anything we've run out there since maybe Dye. If DeJong and Lopez can just be their best 1-WAR selves until Ramos and Monty get there, I don't think that's an historically horrible 1-8. I believe Maldonado will be a black hole, but if he's a steadying influence on Soroka and Kopech, so be it. I'd rather Stassi get most of the starts. That may become the reality by the end of the season. 

Eaton and Avi Garcia both had really strong 6ish and 4+ fWAR seasons in RF but certainly not on a consistent basis...and Eaton also played a lot of CF as well.

Dye was pretty much a statue due to his leg when he came to us, but certainly still an offensive presence.  Earlier in his career had a very strong arm as well, but his habit of catching the ball flat footed or going backwards and/or trying to throw with all of his momentum going forward after an extended run-up didn't serve him well, either.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

Maldonado is a "black hole" that has played a big part on winning teams.  This lineup is better than last year's opening day lineup that was picked by most pros to win the Central.

Yasmani Grandal made the playoffs 7 years in a row, we should have signed him.

[Balta1701]

45 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

What I want is to keep all our good prospects down in AAA for pretty much the entire year. Keep them together in Charlotte and let them build confidence and enjoy being on a winning team. 

Keep them all down there: Montgomery, Quero, Ramos; those young arms, keep them down there, starting with Crochet, and add to it Nastrini, Cannon, and Eder. Let them all build innings and build some confidence also. 

I would be fine with bring a bunch up in September to get their feet wet, but try to keep them in AAA and have a really outstanding year and team in Charlotte. 

I think we should try to muddle through this year with our inexpensive veterans and try to get lucky and win 70 games. Knowing that we have all that talent down in Charlotte will make this year a lot, a lot easier to take. 

 

 

I don’t care one bit about any of this. 

Promote guys and call them up when they deserve it. We just spent 10 years with a GM who would find any reason possible to bring people up or leave them down other than how they were actually performing. 

If a guy earns a call up, call them up. Nastrini and Eder are guys we’d like to see make progress and earn a call up, but if they struggle or get hurt, don’t call them up just to save the bullpen or to meet some artificial deadline.

Montgomery was injured last year and struggled in his AA stint. If he doesn’t tear up the minors, take your time, he doesn’t have to come up. Ramos outperformed Monty last year, if he does that again bring him up to AAA and then see if he earns a call up. Quero is probably two years away if we’re being honest, take our time with him.

Actually make these as baseball decisions. It’s the one thing Hahn basically never did.

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

You know? I'm not really worried about their bullpen. Between Knebel, Shaw, Barlow, Jake Cousins, Justin Anderson, Tanner Banks, Deivi Garcia, Jordan Leasure, Dominic Leone, and Alex Speas, Jimmy Lambert, I think they'll be okay. 

You must not have seen the stories today. Knebel said he had a "setback" (no details given) but won't be ready for opening day. Merkin said the same thing is his fluff piece today.

[WestEddy]

26 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

You must not have seen the stories today. Knebel said he had a "setback" (no details given) but won't be ready for opening day. Merkin said the same thing is his fluff piece today.

I think they'll get 8 adequate, healthy options by opening day. Then when Knebel, the guy from Boston, Brebbia, Barlow, and all that, when they get well, work them in. Bullpen is the one area I'm not worried about this spring. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, WestEddy said:

I think they'll get 8 adequate, healthy options by opening day. Then when Knebel, the guy from Boston, Brebbia, Barlow, and all that, when they get well, work them in. Bullpen is the one area I'm not worried about this spring. 

You could have literally included John Q Fakename in your list of reasons why you’re aren’t concerned about the bullpen and I’d totally have believed he was a real person.

[WestEddy]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You could have literally included John Q Fakename in your list of reasons why you’re aren’t concerned about the bullpen and I’d totally have believed he was a real person.

Hey, if this is Getz finding a market inefficiency for filling a bullpen, I'll take it. 

But yeah, I should just start talking about Sampson Quinones, our hotshot lefty starter, and see who calls BS. 

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Hey, if this is Getz finding a market inefficiency for filling a bullpen, I'll take it. 

But yeah, I should just start talking about Sampson Quinones, our hotshot lefty starter, and see who calls BS. 

I think the market inefficiency on relievers is always going to be what it has been - finding starters who have stuff but who hit limits in the upper minors or big leagues and converting them to relievers.