Grade the Cease trade

[Bob Sacamano]

Said it last night and I'll say it again: I would have waited until the summer and put the best defense behind him possible every 5 games, even if the little offense we have this year was even less those games.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, T R U said:

The Padres had to give up 3 legit prospects (One top 50-60 and the other two in the 100-150 range) and a good reliever for one guy. I would consider that pretty steep. There was no filler in this trade. There are no Basabe or Diaz in this one, there are no Matt Rose or Bryan Flete. All players sent to the White Sox are promising or useful now.

 

A 29 year old reliever with a career 4.33 FIP in 2 seasons who has slightly better ERA than that thanks to Petco park is most definitely filler. It's 40 man roster fluff.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 hours ago, Snopek said:

I appreciate the “Incomplete/Other” option for dorks like me who can’t summon up the energy to have a strong opinion on players I know next to nothing about.

This is totally fair. Even knowing as much as possible your chances of predicting his future value is still next to zero.

Anyone can take the safe route and say they'll never get much WAR at the MLB level and no one ever goes out of their way to say " this guy is definitely a 10 year MLB player".

Even predicting ceilings are extremely difficult. Who could've predicted the massive upside of Altuve when he signed with Houston for 10K when you have multi-million dollar prospects busting all the time ?

Edited March 14 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[hogan873]

1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Said it last night and I'll say it again: I would have waited until the summer and put the best defense behind him possible every 5 games, even if the little offense we have this year was even less those games.

There's a lot of risk there.  I'd be less concerned about injury, as Case has been pretty healthy.  But, if he has a first half similar to how he pitched last year, his value at best is slightly less than what the Sox got for him.  However, if he has a first half similar to 2022, the Sox get more at the deadline.  That's a tough call.

[T R U]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A 29 year old reliever with a career 4.33 FIP in 2 seasons who has slightly better ERA than that thanks to Petco park is most definitely filler. It's 40 man roster fluff.

Ill disagree with that one, but I guess were a few weeks away from finding out.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A 29 year old reliever with a career 4.33 FIP in 2 seasons who has slightly better ERA than that thanks to Petco park is most definitely filler. It's 40 man roster fluff.

Have you actually looked at his Statcast figures?  Or will you simply continue with lazy takes in your endless quest to save face by crapping on this trade.

[Snopek]

11 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

There's little risk taking him into the season if you aren't being offered anything. If he gets hurt, you don't lose much because you weren't offered much.

This would have been a wildly irresponsible approach for Getz to take.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

There's a lot of risk there.  I'd be less concerned about injury, as Case has been pretty healthy.  But, if he has a first half similar to how he pitched last year, his value at best is slightly less than what the Sox got for him.  However, if he has a first half similar to 2022, the Sox get more at the deadline.  That's a tough call.

To say this a harsher way, this is also writing that the White Sox gave a large discount on Cease because they weren't confident that he could be a top of the rotation pitcher in 2024 and believed it likely that 2022 was a fluke.

[SoCalChiSox]

3 minutes ago, Snopek said:

This would have been a wildly irresponsible approach for Getz to take.

Not when you are being offered lame returns. 

[Quin]

8 minutes ago, T R U said:

The Padres had to give up 3 legit prospects (One top 50-60 and the other two in the 100-150 range) and a good reliever for one guy. I would consider that pretty steep. There was no filler in this trade. There are no Basabe or Diaz in this one, there are no Matt Rose or Bryan Flete. All players sent to the White Sox are promising or useful now.

 

Basabe being filler is definite retrospect.

[LittleHurtCG]

4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Not when you are being offered lame returns. 

Yep. Cease should have been traded at the deadline last year, but this dysfunctional ass organization had two general managers making trades without even consulting one another. 

They couldn't even poach one of San Diegos top 4 prospects here. I see no true difference makers in any of these prospects. One of the pieces was even a 29 year old reliever lol. This trade was very very underwhelming and would have been scoffed at by most posters on here it seems if it was proposed two months ago. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

It’s honestly hard to grade because the reality is that we were all VERY wrong on Cease’s value across the league. It’s hard not to be disappointed because of the collective hope/expectation. I’m curious if rumors will come out on what other offers were. 
 

I’ll say it’s a C for now

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

C- honestly.

 

i just wouldn’t have jumped on this offer. I love Thorpe too. But the 2nd piece is strongly lacking. Zavala is interesting and so confused at why a bullpen arm was added

I'm confused how u determine who is the 2nd piece or 3rd piece Zavala or Iriarte. Ratings are soooo subjective and so impossible to predict future value. All meh people about the trade could be right or they could be terribly wrong.

What good is Cease on a terrible team for 2 years ?

If Getz can somehow get enough guys to be real bonafide MLB players out of the system  all it'll take is a couple WAR by one of those 3 guys that contributes to a playoff team to equal what Cease would've been worth in losing seasons.

While I don't have a lot of hope that JR will ever give Getz much to work with he could get lucky with prospects. That's really his only chance of minor success. JR doesn't give his GMs a fighting chance to win. That's why he keeps them so long. If they toe the line , he knows he's setting them up for failure .

The 2005 year was a culmination of lucky trades and a lot of guys having career years in the same year. That team had no superstars.

That all you can really hope for under JR is a whole helluva lot of luck before it ends quickly. His methods can't sustain continued success even in a very winnable division most years. He aims for .500 or less and he usually gets it. He loved Kenny Williams because for that one season he did the impossible, he found a way to win a World Series knowing how little he gives his front office to work with.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

It’s honestly hard to grade because the reality is that we were all VERY wrong on Cease’s value across the league. It’s hard not to be disappointed because of the collective hope/expectation. I’m curious if rumors will come out on what other offers were. 
 

I’ll say it’s a C for now

We were wrong on Cease's value around the league because as a whole we were saying that Cease would have a top of the rotation pitcher value and if they didn't get that return they had the option to hold him until the deadline, in the hopes that he could replicate much of his 2022 performance. In the end, the league did not value him as a TOR pitcher, but Getz passed on the option to hold him until the deadline in favor of taking the best deal they could get.

If their scouting and development has improved this could still be a good gamble given the players who came back, but this staff currently has zero track record and we can come up with many reasons for skepticism until they do.

[MiddleCoastBias]

2 hours ago, FT35 said:

A multi-BILLION dollar industry and they can’t get a working radar gun for Spring Training?

Hey, they're also unable to stream all of the spring training games online for *reasons*, remember?

[wrathofhahn]

I voted D.

For one of the best pitchers in baseball, this is a pretty pitiful return. SD didn't give up any of their best prospects. Although I would have shot higher for Jackson Merrill or Ethan Salas, it is almost criminal that they walked away from the deal while keeping Robby Snelling and Dylan Lesko.

Since Cease was our best remaining asset, this trade hurts. Next year, we would have been in a situation where we would have needed to move him, so I could see us having to make do with this kind of return. Right now? He still has 2 years of control. I am aware that the market is currently soft, but given the circumstances, you are not required to make a deal.

I don't understand why we didn't just wait until the deadline instead of taking this poo platter.

 

Edited March 14 by wrathofhahn

[T R U]

45 minutes ago, Quin said:

Basabe being filler is definite retrospect.

At the time of the trade, he was like a 45 FV guy and the third piece. That's filler.

[wrathofhahn]

40 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

It’s honestly hard to grade because the reality is that we were all VERY wrong on Cease’s value across the league. It’s hard not to be disappointed because of the collective hope/expectation. I’m curious if rumors will come out on what other offers were. 
 

I’ll say it’s a C for now

Where it is really going to hurt is if the Padres are out of contention and they decide to flip Cease at the deadline.

Because I think they easily beat this return

[Tomtom]

We all want he players the Sox get back in a trade to become elite, but in the longrun, does it really matter?  If they somehow develop into great players, they'll be gone when their next contract comes up because JR will not outspend other teams who are willing to put up the big bucks to either retain the great players or acquire them from other teams.  In a sense, the Sox have become the defacto minor leagues for teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and most recently, the Padres.

[Snopek]

1 hour ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Not when you are being offered lame returns. 

If you're only being offered "lame" returns, then that says more about Cease's value than whatever we think it is or want it to be.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Snopek said:

If you're only being offered "lame" returns, then that says more about Cease's value than whatever we think it is or want it to be.

Yes, Dylan Cease had a down year last year and this significantly affected his value as he looks like a very inconsistent pitcher. The question is what drove that downturn last year and whether it is fixable - there was a velocity drop, his slider was hit much harder with the velocity drop, but he still had dominant stuff available, multiple metrics tracked that and people here were stressing that the whole offseason as they tried to justify true top returns for him. If people believed that, then there's a very strong case for holding him and expecting him to be substantially better in 2024 because the stuff was there to produce a much more valuable pitcher at the deadline.

[wrathofhahn]

8 minutes ago, Snopek said:

If you're only being offered "lame" returns, then that says more about Cease's value than whatever we think it is or want it to be.

 

Okay, I will admit that. Therefore, all you can do is hold onto him in the hopes that he will regain some value.

He was under control for two more seasons, I don't know why this FO or fanbase felt pressured to finalize a trade.

 

Edited March 14 by wrathofhahn

[nitetrain8601]

I give it a D. Padres gave up prospects they "developed", but didn't want. If Cease pitches well, they could flip him again at the deadline. Sox were also adamant about top end talent. Doesn't feel like we got that. Lastly, when you're rebuilding, I'm always in the opinion that you trade star pitching for position players, because everyday players affect the season more than SP. 

Talks about Spencer Jones or Kjerstad, and we go Thorpe? Yeah, no. 

[Chicago White Sox]

48 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

I voted D.

For one of the best pitchers in baseball, this is a pretty pitiful return. SD didn't give up any of their best prospects. Although I would have shot higher for Jackson Merrill or Ethan Salas, it is almost criminal that they walked away from the deal while keeping Robby Snelling and Dylan Lesko.

Since Cease was our best remaining asset, this trade hurts. Next year, we would have been in a situation where we would have needed to move him, so I could see us having to make do with this kind of return. Right now? He still has 2 years of control. I am aware that the market is currently soft, but given the circumstances, you are not required to make a deal.

I don't understand why we didn't just wait until the deadline instead of taking this poo platter.

 

They gave up three of their top 10 prospects in what is considered one of the best farm systems in baseball?  I mean, Thorpe isn’t viewed all that differently than Lasko and may be even ranked higher by several publications.

I don’t have a problem at all if people feel this is underwhelming, but under no circumstance is getting a guy ranked in the 60’s plus two fringe top 100 talents a “poo poo platter”.  Saying you would have shot higher for Salas shows an expectation that was never set in reality.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said:

I give it a D. Padres gave up prospects they "developed", but didn't want. If Cease pitches well, they could flip him again at the deadline. Sox were also adamant about top end talent. Doesn't feel like we got that. Lastly, when you're rebuilding, I'm always in the opinion that you trade star pitching for position players, because everyday players affect the season more than SP. 

Talks about Spencer Jones or Kjerstad, and we go Thorpe? Yeah, no. 

Thorpe never pitched for the Padres so very weird to say they developed him.