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Grade the Cease trade


Grade the Cease trade  

134 members have voted

  1. 1. What grade do you give the Cease trade?

    • A
      4
    • B
      67
    • C
      41
    • D
      9
    • F
      8
    • Incomplete/Other
      5


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5 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said:

I give it a D. Padres gave up prospects they "developed", but didn't want. If Cease pitches well, they could flip him again at the deadline. Sox were also adamant about top end talent. Doesn't feel like we got that. Lastly, when you're rebuilding, I'm always in the opinion that you trade star pitching for position players, because everyday players affect the season more than SP. 

Talks about Spencer Jones or Kjerstad, and we go Thorpe? Yeah, no. 

Just because you trade someone doesn't mean you didn't want them.  It may well be another team wants them  more.  Keep in mind Drew Thorpe specifically never threw a regular season pitch for the Padres organization.

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Just because you trade someone doesn't mean you didn't want them.  It may well be another team wants them  more.  Keep in mind Drew Thorpe specifically never threw a regular season pitch for the Padres organization.

At one point or another, yes, you want that prospect. But as time goes by, you're willing to deal that prospect for even a flawed player. Padres are great at showcasing their prospects and putting them in positions to succeed, but I would bet maybe 5 of their top 25 prospects over the past 3 years even pan out into + WAR players over the course of their careers. Look at Washington. They thought they got a haul for Soto. 

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7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

They gave up three of their top 10 prospects in what is considered one of the best farm systems in baseball?  I mean, Thorpe isn’t viewed all that differently than Lasko and may be even ranked higher by several publications.

I don’t have a problem at all if people feel this is underwhelming, but under no circumstance is getting a guy ranked in the 60’s plus two fringe top 100 talents a “poo poo platter”.  Saying you would have shot higher for Salas shows an expectation that was never set in reality.

That's the mindset why people are going to be disappointed with the trade. "This trade sucks, why didn't they just go get Spencer Jones??"

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19 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Just because you trade someone doesn't mean you didn't want them.  It may well be another team wants them  more.  Keep in mind Drew Thorpe specifically never threw a regular season pitch for the Padres organization.

See Gio Gonzalez.

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16 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said:

At one point or another, yes, you want that prospect. But as time goes by, you're willing to deal that prospect for even a flawed player. Padres are great at showcasing their prospects and putting them in positions to succeed, but I would bet maybe 5 of their top 25 prospects over the past 3 years even pan out into + WAR players over the course of their careers. Look at Washington. They thought they got a haul for Soto. 

All this means is they wanted Dylan Cease more than they wanted these four players.  It doesn't mean they didn't want those four players on their own merits.

And yes, making deals where you get kids is fraught with risk.  That's why you try to stack these deals with as much potential as possible to overcome inevitable failure risk.

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16 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said:

At one point or another, yes, you want that prospect. But as time goes by, you're willing to deal that prospect for even a flawed player. Padres are great at showcasing their prospects and putting them in positions to succeed, but I would bet maybe 5 of their top 25 prospects over the past 3 years even pan out into + WAR players over the course of their careers. Look at Washington. They thought they got a haul for Soto. 

Gore has clearly disappointed...but he's not Michael Kopech exactly, either.

It now all comes down to CJ Abrams continuing to progress and most especially James Wood.

Hassell has definitely gone backwards as a top prospect.

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Hard to grade because the Padres don't really know which Cease their getting, so I'll give the Sox a B and the Padres C+ that could easily turn into a B or A+.

Will the Padres get the Cease who gets frustrated when he can't control his slider and falls behind in counts and runs up his pitch count.  Or the dominate Cease that lights up the strike zone and fools hitters with his pitch selections.

One doesn't really know, I think Cease can't control his emotions much like Kopeck except with better stuff.  That leads to high pitch counts and walks which eventually lead to runs.  The Sox defense was no help to his pitch count or frustrations so maybe he'll become the dominate pitcher that scouts thought he would become with his electric stuff behind the Padres defense and the expanse of Petco Park.

Prospects are prospects and rankings are subjective so the Sox don't really know what their getting either, however the scouting reports look promising on all 3 prospects and the middle reliever will come in handy this season.  This is a trade that could turn into 3 quality players for 1, depending on how the prospects pan out.

In conclusion, both teams did well with this trade and each are taking risks with the players their getting back.  Both teams grades have the possibilities of becoming A which is what you want in a trade.

Edited by A-Train to 35th
sp.
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2 hours ago, Snopek said:

This would have been a wildly irresponsible approach for Getz to take.

Exactly. It's his job to make the Sox better. Posters here can say let him pitch because you're not losing much anyway if he gets hurt or pitches poorly because they have no skin in the game.

I'll take 3 prospects who all have a shot to become very good every time.

If you wanted Cease to pitch into the season and he gets hurt or pitches poorly and the Sox get very little in return for him you never know what you might have got for him to compare it to. It's such an easy position to take when it's not your ass on the line.

If the Sox farm system, after the trades at the deadline moved to about 15 and this trade gives you 3 prospects you can rank in your top 10 you did pretty good since all 3 of the prospects were in a No. 5 farms top ten  also.

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2 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

It’s honestly hard to grade because the reality is that we were all VERY wrong on Cease’s value across the league. It’s hard not to be disappointed because of the collective hope/expectation. I’m curious if rumors will come out on what other offers were. 
 

I’ll say it’s a C for now

 Not all of us were wrong. I wasn't as vociferous about it but I said super early after reading a few posts about how valuable Cease was that 2023 was going to hurt his value a lot. It's really turned into a what have you done lately league.

Remember all the people here pining for Comforto because his career stats were much better than his last year Conforto hasnt got back to what he was.

I hope Cease does amazingly well for the Padres and stays healthy in a ballpark built for pitchers on a better team . But that doesn't automatically mean he would be just as amazing in our park on a shitty team facing different hitters, anyone of whom can hit u in the face with a line drive. His destiny has changed now. But if Cease does well in SD you're still going to have people saying "see we should have kept him and got more" even though there's no such thing as a crystal ball to say what would have happened if he was pitching in Chicago.  Circumstances dictate outcomes.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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1 hour ago, T R U said:

That's the mindset why people are going to be disappointed with the trade. "This trade sucks, why didn't they just go get Spencer Jones??"

Yup, I fully acknowledge that my expectations on this were probably too high to some degree, but this is a very different environment now and true blue chip prospects are rarely traded anymore.  Getting one would have been nice, but it would have likely resulted in much weaker back-end pieces.  Getting a prospect who is a tier below blue chip plus two other high variance, high potential fringe top 100 types is at least within the realm of reasonable.  Doesn’t mean anyone has to love or even like the specific players we got in return, but to act like it’s some sort of fleecing on Preller’s behalf seems crazy to me.

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7 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

All this means is they wanted Dylan Cease more than they wanted these four players.  It doesn't mean they didn't want those four players on their own merits.

And yes, making deals where you get kids is fraught with risk.  That's why you try to stack these deals with as much potential as possible to overcome inevitable failure risk.

It means that they wanted him right now. The Padres have some really bad contracts on the roster and they're a small market. They need to win now. 

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42 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

It means that they wanted him right now. The Padres have some really bad contracts on the roster and they're a small market. They need to win now. 

Musgrove and Darvish (37)...maybe

Bogaerts...not if he's 100% healthy like the last 6-8 weeks of the 2023 season, but he will age and isn't really even a legit SS anymore.  Value is severely depressed at any position other than 2B/SS.

Cronenworth...the worst of the contracts for now (partly due to age), especially if he never comes close to his 2022 numbers and looks more like 2023 and a 1B instead of a legit versatile utility guy.   They will still need him to replace HaSeong Kim in 2024, though...likely at 2B with Bogaerts or Merrill or him at 2B/1B.   Assumption for now must be Merrill moving from outfield back to natural SS position.

Machado....another bad/aging contract if he ends up more at 1B/DH than 3B.

Edited by caulfield12
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I'll give it a B, but on the lower side. It certainly strengthened the system, but the lack of a true can't miss type prospect is a bit worrisome. Despite how much I like them, I guess I'm not very convinced the Sox will actually be able to develop the toolsy Zavala and Iriarte to make all that much of a difference.

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Musgrove and Darvish (37)...maybe

Bogaerts...not if he's 100% healthy like the last 6-8 weeks of the 2023 season, but he will age and isn't really even a legit SS anymore.  Value is severely depressed at any position other than 2B/SS.

Cronenworth...the worst of the contracts for now (partly due to age), especially if he never comes close to his 2022 numbers and looks more like 2023 and a 1B instead of a legit versatile utility guy.   They will still need him to replace HaSeong Kim in 2024, though...likely at 2B with Bogaerts or Merrill or him at 2B/1B.   Assumption for now must be Merrill moving from outfield back to natural SS position.

Machado....another bad/aging contract if he ends up more at 1B/DH than 3B.

Machado and Bogaerts are crippling contracts. Tatis has had multiple serious injuries and he's a juicer. His contract is scary as hell if you're a Padres fan. You're a warm weather Padres fan, so it doesn't matter to you, but if you lived in SoCal, you'd care.

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2 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

It means that they wanted him right now. The Padres have some really bad contracts on the roster and they're a small market. They need to win now. 

padres are valued at about 1.8 billion, Sox about 2 billion.  to the degree one club is "small market" it certainly isn't the Padres here. SD spends and if it doesn't work out they retool. It's fun at least. Is it sustainable? Eh who knows, but at least they go for it. 

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3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

padres are valued at about 1.8 billion, Sox about 2 billion.  to the degree one club is "small market" it certainly isn't the Padres here. SD spends and if it doesn't work out they retool. It's fun at least. Is it sustainable? Eh who knows, but at least they go for it. 

I am going to guess that has more to do with their home ballparks than their spending. 

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

I am going to guess that has more to do with their home ballparks than their spending. 

You can make a lot of excuses for the Sox, but they have never really operated at all levels like a mid or mid major market team, and by most valuations they are exactly that. 

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40 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am going to guess that has more to do with their home ballparks than their spending. 

Location/weather.  Stadium/facilities.   Surrounding entertainment district, etc.

Not sure how much the overhang from all those existing big-money contracts would be...particularly Bogaerts, Machado and Cronenworth.

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56 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

You can make a lot of excuses for the Sox, but they have never really operated at all levels like a mid or mid major market team, and by most valuations they are exactly that. 

Nobody is ever making excuses for the Sox. We all realize we suck and we're cheap. You're yelling into the wind. I can't think of a single Sox apologist on this board. 

Edited by TaylorStSox
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25 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Nobody is ever making excuses for the Sox. We all realize we suck and we're cheap. You're yelling into the wind. I can't think of a single Sox apologist on this board. 

I can think of a couple specific ones. 

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1 hour ago, TaylorStSox said:

Machado and Bogaerts are crippling contracts. Tatis has had multiple serious injuries and he's a juicer. His contract is scary as hell if you're a Padres fan. You're a warm weather Padres fan, so it doesn't matter to you, but if you lived in SoCal, you'd care.

He also became a Gold Glover in RF with very little transition time...the only question to answer is if he's a 959 ops guy going forward vs. 825-875ish.

Almost 1 1/2 years off due to surgeries rehab suspensions and that position change probably played a role in his decline offensively last year.

 

Compared to those Dodgers' deals...no longer would be considered super high risk.

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