Garrett Crochet named Opening Day starter

[Balta1701]

29 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

So, let me get this straight. The only way to rehab from TJS is to throw in real baseball games. And to not throw a lot of innings. He did that, but it was too aggressive. 

Are you actually saying that it should take 4 years to come back from TJS? 

You know, you could just admit you're wrong, instead of trying to rewrite all of medical history. 

No, but I believe it could easily take 2 full years for a pitcher to build up an arm from being a reliever to a starter.

I also believe that true TJS recovery to get back to the point where the body can handle pitching at all takes 18 months, unless this new technique changers things. 

TJS followed by building up the arm of a guy who has never been a starter before definitely seems to be a 3 to 4 year managed process.

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So where does what Crochet wants to do fit in with your narrative. He's 25, a full grown man capable of making his own decisions.  We absolutely agreed on the way we wanted him handled. Proceed with caution , minor leagues etc. but who are you to say what they all have decided is the absolute wrong way. Even if he is injured you still couldn't definitely say he wouldn't have got injured doing it any other way.

But take what you say and turn it the other way. If the White Sox would have been better off limiting Crochet to 50-60 pitches for the first month and building up slowly to 100, and they don't do that, and then he gets hurt - how many people are going to say "Damn they were irresponsible again" versus "oh well I guess he couldn't' handle it"? Almost everyone is going to say the latter, even if the former were true.

And second - yes, it is absolutely the coaches and athletic trainers jobs to know body mechanics, pitching, rehab, and recovery schedules more than an athlete. We know this from every sport, elite athletes will push themselves as hard as they can without recognizing where it puts their body's long term health at risk. NFL players will push themselves to get back on the field through concussions. Baseball players will ignore the pain in their elbow. This is a clear part of an effective coach's job and of an effective organization's job.

Reynaldo Lopez in his opening year felt something a little weird in his elbow. The trainers came out, he said he was fine, they went in. Jose Abreu walked to the mound, asked him what was up, he said he felt something weird, Abreu immediately called the trainers back out, they took him out and he went on the 10 day IL just to make sure something small didn't turn into something big. While the trainers needed to do a better job, this was Jose Abreu being the adult in the room and not letting his 23 year old starter overexert himself and hurt himself long term. The correct person in this scenario was Abreu.

[Nardiwashere]

So what does this look like?  He pitches half a year until he gets to 100ish innings and then gets shut down?  Gaps in between starts?  Does 100 IP sound right?  If so, whats the target for next year?

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Everyone has to stop this.  Crochet pitching out of the bullpen could lead to serious injury.  It already did.  It's going to be a long road and there will be bumps along the way but it is abundantly clear making him a starter is the correct path to maximize his immense talent.  

How long can we reasonably expect a pitcher new to starting and without many innings under his belt to go out every 5 days and throw 80+ pitches? I'm not against him being a starter. He obviously has the talent to do it. I question whether his body has been conditioned to do so, injury history aside. The Sox braintrust doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they will manage his innings to maximize said immense talent for that matter either.

[Nardiwashere]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Reynaldo Lopez in his opening year felt something a little weird in his elbow. The trainers came out, he said he was fine, they went in. Jose Abreu walked to the mound, asked him what was up, he said he felt something weird, Abreu immediately called the trainers back out, they took him out and he went on the 10 day IL just to make sure something small didn't turn into something big. While the trainers needed to do a better job, this was Jose Abreu being the adult in the room and not letting his 23 year old starter overexert himself and hurt himself long term. The correct person in this scenario was Abreu.

A player has to explain what they feel.  A trainer isn't a mind reader.  If they say they feel ok and its a lie, what is the trainer supposed to do?

 

Edited March 29 by Nardiwashere

[WestEddy]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

TJS followed by building up the arm of a guy who has never been a starter before definitely seems to be a 3 to 4 year managed process.

I'd imagine he doesn't throw more than 90 innings this season. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

So what does this look like?  He pitches half a year until he gets to 100ish innings and then gets shut down?  Gaps in between starts?  Does 100 IP sound right?  If so, whats the target for next year?

The physical trainer expert here has said 80 innings as a goal the whole offseason. At the pace of yesterday, he'd get there in June.

I think they would probably like to push him beyond that, and I wouldn't complain about doing so, but I would have insisted they bring him along more slowly than the White Sox just did, with harder pitch limits and more rest especially in April. I would like to think that, if they were responsible and gave him a few breaks for fatigue or time in the minors they could push him to 125-ish innings and keep him around for most of the year, but with their actions early this season I have no idea what they actually will try to do. They may treat him as a normal starter and just figure they can put him on the IL once he feels pain.

[chitownsportsfan]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But take what you say and turn it the other way. If the White Sox would have been better off limiting Crochet to 50-60 pitches for the first month and building up slowly to 100, and they don't do that, and then he gets hurt - how many people are going to say "Damn they were irresponsible again" versus "oh well I guess he couldn't' handle it"? Almost everyone is going to say the latter, even if the former were true.

And second - yes, it is absolutely the coaches and athletic trainers jobs to know body mechanics, pitching, rehab, and recovery schedules more than an athlete. We know this from every sport, elite athletes will push themselves as hard as they can without recognizing where it puts their body's long term health at risk. NFL players will push themselves to get back on the field through concussions. Baseball players will ignore the pain in their elbow. This is a clear part of an effective coach's job and of an effective organization's job.

Reynaldo Lopez in his opening year felt something a little weird in his elbow. The trainers came out, he said he was fine, they went in. Jose Abreu walked to the mound, asked him what was up, he said he felt something weird, Abreu immediately called the trainers back out, they took him out and he went on the 10 day IL just to make sure something small didn't turn into something big. While the trainers needed to do a better job, this was Jose Abreu being the adult in the room and not letting his 23 year old starter overexert himself and hurt himself long term. The correct person in this scenario was Abreu.

It wasn't his elbow, it was his core and I'm not sure how you can blame the training staff for a rookie not letting the staff know his discomfort level. Jose did a good job in that situation as a Latin leader, but players do need some accountability to their own health.

3 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

How long can we reasonably expect a pitcher new to starting and without many innings under his belt to go out every 5 days and throw 80+ pitches? I'm not against him being a starter. He obviously has the talent to do it. I question whether his body has been conditioned to do so, injury history aside. The Sox braintrust doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they will manage his innings to maximize said immense talent for that matter either.

@ptatc and I talked about it some. I believe he said that 80-100 innings would be the cap. I took that to mean that if they can get Crochett to say 25 starts, he'll average about 4 per, and finish around 100. Or he gets 20 starts, is around 5 per, and again is around 100 innings and he'll be shut down sometime in August. 

He's got a surgically repaired elbow, looks to be in excellent shape, has changed some mechanics -- it's now or never to stay healthy. So far, so good. But it's early.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Nardiwashere said:

1. Who cares what people say?  The objective is to win baseball games.  Not some PR battle that only too-online-people on message boards and twitter will remember

2. A player has to explain what they feel.  A trainer isn't a mind reader.  If they say they feel ok and its a lie, what is the trainer supposed to do?

Yes, their objective is to win baseball games. Hurting Garret Crochet this year again rather than bringing him along slowly would hinder that.

A trainer can also plan ahead and anticipate potential issues in the long run. This is why guys get off days even if they aren't hurt. If you go to your trainer and outline how immediately you want to get off the couch and start a 4 hour a day weightlifting routine where every day you are doing max weight reps, your trainer is going to say "This is stupid" and if they're an actual coach for the organization you work for, they will prevent you from doing so. 

[WestEddy]

6 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

The Sox braintrust doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they will manage his innings to maximize said immense talent for that matter either.

Do you feel the White Sox are rushing Noah Schultz? 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Do you feel the White Sox are rushing Noah Schultz? 

?  Schultz threw like 3 innings a start last year prior to being shut down.  They gradually worked up from 2 innings a start to 4 innings.  What does this have to do with Crochet who just threw six right out of the gate and who is currently on pace to throw 198 innings (SSS are fun!).

[WestEddy]

27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

?  Schultz threw like 3 innings a start last year prior to being shut down.  They gradually worked up from 2 innings a start to 4 innings.  What does this have to do with Crochet who just threw six right out of the gate and who is currently on pace to throw 198 innings (SSS are fun!).

Did you read the section I was quoting? He said, "The Sox braintrust doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they will manage his innings to maximize said immense talent for that matter either."

The Sox are currently bringing a few higher profile players back from injury. I understand the "doesn't inspire confidence" line is just reflexive, but they are showing extreme care in other situations, which leads me to believe they are in this case, too. 

Edited March 29 by WestEddy

[Milkman delivers]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Look, I don't think most people doubted the stuff of Crochet.  People doubt the durability of Crochet, and for good reason.  He hasn't even remotely stayed healthy at any point in his career.  One great start does not change that.

This right here. I was wrong on how the start would go. I expected a much earlier exit.

I didn’t think he’d crack 60 innings this year, which I may be wrong about again since he’s already a tenth of the way there. But I still expect his season to end in injury.

[46DidIt]

Tommy John himself came back from the first TJS, after roughly 18 months of rehab, and pitched 207 effective MLB innings without a single rehab appearance in “actual game play.” And that was some 45 years ago. Crochet has had more time than that with 40+ years of advancement to the process. If done properly, his arm should be a cannon by now

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, 4OCS said:

Tommy John himself came back from the first TJS, after roughly 18 months of rehab, and pitched 207 effective MLB innings without a single rehab appearance in “actual game play.” And that was some 45 years ago. Crochet has had more time than that with 40+ years of advancement to the process. If done properly, his arm should be a cannon by now

Pre injury, he had thrown 2165.2 major league innings. 

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, 4OCS said:

Tommy John himself came back from the first TJS, after roughly 18 months of rehab, and pitched 207 effective MLB innings without a single rehab appearance in “actual game play.” And that was some 45 years ago. Crochet has had more time than that with 40+ years of advancement to the process. If done properly, his arm should be a cannon by now

I always use the analogy of you can be a world class 100 meter runner, but that does not mean you can run a world class marathon.  While doing the same things in the same way, the conditioning and training are TOTALLY different.  You need thousands of miles of roadwork and distance runs to be a top level marathoner.  This is the trip that Crochet is on now.  He is accumulating all of those miles so he can clock 30 starts and 150 innings eventually.  

[46DidIt]

30 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I always use the analogy of you can be a world class 100 meter runner, but that does not mean you can run a world class marathon.  While doing the same things in the same way, the conditioning and training are TOTALLY different.  You need thousands of miles of roadwork and distance runs to be a top level marathoner.  This is the trip that Crochet is on now.  He is accumulating all of those miles so he can clock 30 starts and 150 innings eventually.  

I don’t see how that is analogous. Tommy John clearly rebuilt his arm solely through a 18 month TJS rehab in order to run a marathon, as he made about 165 mlb starts in the five years following it. How is that TOTALLY different? Crochet has been rehabbing for considerably more than 18 months. Presumably he has put in the thousands of miles of roadwork, or at least the amount necessary as countless others have done after TJS

[46DidIt]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Pre injury, he had thrown 2165.2 major league innings. 

Right but post injury his arm would have had to be completely rebuilt from scratch. That’s why it was a seemingly miraculous procedure, and why it takes 18 months when it heals after only two, roughly. 

Edited March 29 by 4OCS

[southsider2k5]

24 minutes ago, 4OCS said:

I don’t see how that is analogous. Tommy John clearly rebuilt his arm solely through a 18 month TJS rehab in order to run a marathon, as he made about 165 mlb starts in the five years following it. How is that TOTALLY different? Crochet has been rehabbing for considerably more than 18 months. Presumably he has put in the thousands of miles of roadwork, or at least the amount necessary as countless others have done after TJS

Easy.

Crochet hasn't.

Look at his innings totals.  That is the roadwork.  Since 2020 he has thrown a TOTAL of 79 innings. 7.5% of all of the game innings he has thrown in 5 seasons happened yesterday. If you like, you can add his 12 MiLB innings to bring his 5 season total to 91 IP.  If you really want to stretch you could add his college 132 IP over parts of 3 seasons to make a grand total 223 innings over 7 seasons. 

Tommy John had pitched 153 innings the year he got hurt and 218 the year before. Yes John pitched as many innings in the full season before his injury as Crochet did over 7 seasons.

[WestEddy]

18 minutes ago, 4OCS said:

Right but post injury his arm would have had to be completely rebuilt from scratch. That’s why it was a seemingly miraculous procedure, and why it takes 18 months when it is healed after only two, roughly. 

edit.

Edited March 29 by WestEddy

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Tommy John had pitched 153 innings the year he got hurt and 218 the year before. Yes John pitched as many innings in the full season before his injury as Crochet did over 7 seasons.

The arguments can be made that Crochet doesn't have the long term wear and tear that a normal starter would, and that Crochet might just fare better on a 5-day program rather than the chaotic, up-and-down schedule of a reliever. 

And the innings totals everybody's quoting are just the innings that have been reported in regulation games. There are whole seasons worth of games played at their Alternate training site that never get logged. Spring training. B games. So none of the 79, 91 or 132 totals are accurate. 

[southsider2k5]

29 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

The arguments can be made that Crochet doesn't have the long term wear and tear that a normal starter would, and that Crochet might just fare better on a 5-day program rather than the chaotic, up-and-down schedule of a reliever. 

And the innings totals everybody's quoting are just the innings that have been reported in regulation games. There are whole seasons worth of games played at their Alternate training site that never get logged. Spring training. B games. So none of the 79, 91 or 132 totals are accurate. 

It also doesn't account for that with any other pitcher who has done it either. It's not like normal starters don't do that as well, or probably again, way more in preparation to start for a season 

[WestEddy]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It also doesn't account for that with any other pitcher who has done it either. It's not like normal starters don't do that as well, or probably again, way more in preparation to start for a season 

Point being, it's not accurate to say that Crochet only threw 24 innings in 2023. 

[BamaDoc]

Just to add to the discussion.  Tommy John was a pitcher back when they actually pitched.  Modern day pitchers are more throwers, giving max effort on almost all pitches.  Back in the day, no one threw 100 mph, then a few and now almost every team has a couple guys capable of 100 mph.  Crochet may have on opening day (first opening I didn't follow in probably 50 years).  Point being 60 of 87 pitches being max effort is different than 15 of 120.  Several studies point to arm stress not being linear but going up near exponentially at a certain point.  I think that is where the now common 100 pitch limit came from.  Look at the innings guys used to throw in a year.  200 was nothing.  300 was frequent. Seaver began MLB at 22 years old and went over 250 innings in 11 of his first 12 years!  One would think with modern training and medicines pitchers should be accumulating more innings not dropping like crazy.  Now 180 is a lot because of much more max effort?  (Also, with guaranteed contracts, ownership is probably more worried for the health of their 100 million dollar investment.)

For teams with budgetary constraints, I think you could make a case for treating pitchers like NFL running backs.  A granted, shitty way to treat human beings but probably cost effective.  Draft pitching heavily , develop, use heavily while under team control, if no team friendly extension- trade near end of control.  Rare second contracts.  You can bring in cheap vets and reclamation projects to fill out a staff or pen but most of staff is home grown, young and cheap.  Pitching is always a shortage so you get a premium in trades to fill out your positions and/or reload pitching staff.  If you look at the high dollar pitching contracts, very few of the long/expensive ones returned excess value to the team while many were bad returns on investment.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

Point being, it's not accurate to say that Crochet only threw 24 innings in 2023. 

That is absolutely accurate.  You can say he had other workouts, but so did everyone else meaning the distance between he and a typical starter is still around 1000+ innings of game work over those 7 seasons.