Lorenzen signs w/Rangers 1/$4.5 million

[vilehoopster]

29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Overreacting to spring training and one start is the classic Wild E Coyote set up for baseball fans.  The next frame is you opening the box that blows up in your face.

I looked this up on a couple sources a while ago: Japanese baseball is equal to a little better than AAA level ball. Korean ball where Fedde is equal to AA ball. Both dominated at those levels/ leagues last year.  Pitchers jump up from AA and do well all the time. 

Also, I didn't realize that yesterday's game when Yamamota give up five runs in the 1st inning was only spring training; I must have misunderstood that. 

Just because the Dodgers throw a ton of money at someone, doesn't start to make him a guaranteed success. How did all that money thrown at Trevor Bauer turn out? It just means the Dodgers have too much money to throw around and they're trying to get Far East TVs. My logic is as sound as yours when you consider Yamamota is making over 20 times what Fedde is making for only achieving at a AAA level. 

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

I looked this up on a couple sources a while ago: Japanese baseball is equal to a little better than AAA level ball. Korean ball where Fedde is equal to AA ball. Both dominated at those levels/ leagues last year.  Pitchers jump up from AA and do well all the time. 

Also, I didn't realize that yesterday's game when Yamamota give up five runs in the 1st inning was only spring training; I must have misunderstood that. 

Just because the Dodgers throw a ton of money at someone, doesn't start to make him a guaranteed success. How did all that money thrown at Trevor Bauer turn out? It just means the Dodgers have too much money to throw around and they're trying to get Far East TVs. My logic is as sound as yours when you consider Yamamota is making over 20 times what Fedde is making for only achieving at a AAA level. 

That's a whole lot of words with nothing really said.  You can rationalize all you want to rationalize, as can I.  But at the end of the day, we will see.  You might even re-read what I said to see what was actually said.

[Tony]

3 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

I looked this up on a couple sources a while ago: Japanese baseball is equal to a little better than AAA level ball. Korean ball where Fedde is equal to AA ball. Both dominated at those levels/ leagues last year.  Pitchers jump up from AA and do well all the time. 

Also, I didn't realize that yesterday's game when Yamamota give up five runs in the 1st inning was only spring training; I must have misunderstood that. 

Just because the Dodgers throw a ton of money at someone, doesn't start to make him a guaranteed success. How did all that money thrown at Trevor Bauer turn out? It just means the Dodgers have too much money to throw around and they're trying to get Far East TVs. My logic is as sound as yours when you consider Yamamota is making over 20 times what Fedde is making for only achieving at a AAA level. 

What players are making is only relevant to what teams are willing to spend. 

By all accounts, if Yamamoto is a bust, that isn't going to stop the Dodgers from replacing him with another high end pitcher. The White Sox? Not so much. 

Also, your logic isn't sound and in fact fairly dumb. You're inferring all of this is in a vacuum and the Dodgers just decided to offer him 325 million because they wanted to pay as much as possible. He was incredibly highly sought after because of his past performance. It's the exact same reason Erick Fedde signed a 2 year, 15 million dollar contract, that is what the market believed he was worth.  

[WhiteSox2023]

6 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

I looked this up on a couple sources a while ago: Japanese baseball is equal to a little better than AAA level ball. Korean ball where Fedde is equal to AA ball. Both dominated at those levels/ leagues last year.  Pitchers jump up from AA and do well all the time. 

Also, I didn't realize that yesterday's game when Yamamota give up five runs in the 1st inning was only spring training; I must have misunderstood that. 

Just because the Dodgers throw a ton of money at someone, doesn't start to make him a guaranteed success. How did all that money thrown at Trevor Bauer turn out? It just means the Dodgers have too much money to throw around and they're trying to get Far East TVs. My logic is as sound as yours when you consider Yamamota is making over 20 times what Fedde is making for only achieving at a AAA level. 

Bauer pitched like an ace for the Dodgers.  His fall and termination had zero to do with his performance.  I’m not sure what your point is with that one.

[GREEDY]

The timing of the Cease deal was a tad odd.... why attempt to "wait out" the market then settle?

If you were willing to gamble on his health through spring training, why not wait until May or the deadline when clearly the market was very soft?

Well, the reason you move Dylan before opening day is then you don't have pay him.  

Even if the 8 million is a deal, it is still 8 million.  

Super frustrating.

[WhiteSox2023]

5 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

The timing of the Cease deal was a tad odd.... why attempt to "wait out" the market then settle?

If you were willing to gamble on his health through spring training, why not wait until May or the deadline when clearly the market was very soft?

Well, the reason you move Dylan before opening day is then you don't have pay him.  

Even if the 8 million is a deal, it is still 8 million.  

Super frustrating.

That could definitely be part of it.   But also, guys are mostly ramping up their arms in ST rather than going all out with maximum effort like in the regular season.  Pitching in ST was still a risk with Cease but going into the regular season and letting him pitch would have been even riskier.

Edited March 21 by WhiteSox2023

[WestEddy]

14 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

The timing of the Cease deal was a tad odd.... why attempt to "wait out" the market then settle?

If you were willing to gamble on his health through spring training, why not wait until May or the deadline when clearly the market was very soft?

Well, the reason you move Dylan before opening day is then you don't have pay him.  

Even if the 8 million is a deal, it is still 8 million.  

Super frustrating.

What 2023 says, but also - nobody seems to be trading their top ten in the game prospects. Trading for the #5 top prospect means you're buying at the top of that guy's market. Think Kopech and Moncada. I think the market is shifting to targeting just missed and end of the top 100 guys who will be ascending with a bullet once real games start being played. 

[Balta1701]

22 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

What 2023 says, but also - nobody seems to be trading their top ten in the game prospects. Trading for the #5 top prospect means you're buying at the top of that guy's market. Think Kopech and Moncada. I think the market is shifting to targeting just missed and end of the top 100 guys who will be ascending with a bullet once real games start being played. 

Or is just says that elite stuff pitchers who are generally healthy with multiple years of control come available so rarely that there was only one possible one at the deadline last year, and he was in the middle of an underperforming season with a GM asking for the moon so he didn’t move.

[WestEddy]

57 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Or is just says that elite stuff pitchers who are generally healthy with multiple years of control come available so rarely that there was only one possible one at the deadline last year, and he was in the middle of an underperforming season with a GM asking for the moon so he didn’t move.

Sure. Who knows what the exact dynamic was last July? Did Hahn/KW know they were leaving, hedged on moving Cease, so they asked for the moon and stars? Did JR not give the go ahead for the benefit of Getz? 

I've seen a few people suggest that the economic dynamic in the game now forces GMs to hold onto their clear franchise prospects, as they'll get 3-4 cheap years from premium production. 

Edited March 21 by WestEddy

[GREEDY]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

That could definitely be part of it.   But also, guys are mostly ramping up their arms in ST rather than going all out with maximum effort like in the regular season.  Pitching in ST was still a risk with Cease but going into the regular season and letting him pitch would have been even riskier.

It was the 8 million.  

[WhiteSox2023]

3 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

It was the 8 million.  

Could be.  Especially if they don’t spend those freed up funds, which it looks like is the plan.  Cutting a lot of payroll because they are expecting some awful attendance.

Edited March 21 by WhiteSox2023

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Could be.  Especially if they don’t spend those freed up funds, which it looks like is the plan.  Cutting a lot of payroll because they are expecting some awful attendance.

Here's the thing.  If you look on paper at the Forbes rankings, there is a bit of a hint there.  On paper, the Sox have lost money in three straight seasons, and probably 4 once last years numbers are published.

From Forbes the Sox lost

$53.4 million in 2022

$10 million in 2021

$34 million in 2020.

You can absolutely think that the Forbes numbers are missing some valuable revenue sources which are off of the books, and you are almost certainly right, but do you think the Sox are pulling in another $100 million in those three seasons to cover those numbers published?  They are cutting based on past losses, and it wouldn't surprise me if they are looking at another $25 to 30 million paper losses for last season, plus more expected losses for this one.  I know the Sox historically expanded and contracted spending in a pretty close ratio to those previous revenue changes over the history of this publication. Usually if they saw a big profit, payroll expanded the next year, and vice versa.  I will say that without going back and looking at all of the historics here, I can't ever recall the Sox putting up 3 straight years of losses, let alone 4 during the time Forbes has published this list.

[ChiSox59]

6 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

After his no hitter, wasn't Lorenzen god awful?

Yes. Phillies removed him from the rotation. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Or is just says that elite stuff pitchers who are generally healthy with multiple years of control come available so rarely that there was only one possible one at the deadline last year, and he was in the middle of an underperforming season with a GM asking for the moon so he didn’t move.

Burnes?

Haha 

The funny thing to me watching Glasnow and Yamamoto these last two nights has been that Tyler has not once pitched 120+ innings and Yamamoto really seems to be tipping not only his pitches but his preferred sequences.

Part three is that hitters don't swing and miss outside the zone so much against what looked to be great but not overwhelming stuff.

Then again...the eyes of three countries upon him, biggest contract for a pitcher without ever having thrown a single pitch and losing your interpreter all in one one day. That's a lot to process.

Let's at least give this 3-4 months before declaring him a bust.  If he pitches with that lack of control...placement in the zone and getting behind constantly, things will be tough for him in the US....where his raw stuff is Top 10-15% vs. Top 1-2%.

Edited March 21 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Here's the thing.  If you look on paper at the Forbes rankings, there is a bit of a hint there.  On paper, the Sox have lost money in three straight seasons, and probably 4 once last years numbers are published.

From Forbes the Sox lost

$53.4 million in 2022

$10 million in 2021

$34 million in 2020.

You can absolutely think that the Forbes numbers are missing some valuable revenue sources which are off of the books, and you are almost certainly right, but do you think the Sox are pulling in another $100 million in those three seasons to cover those numbers published?  They are cutting based on past losses, and it wouldn't surprise me if they are looking at another $25 to 30 million paper losses for last season, plus more expected losses for this one.  I know the Sox historically expanded and contracted spending in a pretty close ratio to those previous revenue changes over the history of this publication. Usually if they saw a big profit, payroll expanded the next year, and vice versa.  I will say that without going back and looking at all of the historics here, I can't ever recall the Sox putting up 3 straight years of losses, let alone 4 during the time Forbes has published this list.

That seems so attendance based ... ignoring the falling impact of that single line revenue number vs. the combination of guaranteed national tv contracts as well as insulation provided from owning your own network vs. RSN collapses.

SSHM keeps quoting that singular number of money in the coffers on the media side before even opening the gates.

And certainly not spending on the front office, coaching or minor leagues (cutting teams/draft picks) and intl scouting or general operations.

[Texsox]

10 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Or the key was for wise GMs to wait for the free agent prices to crash.  Why would Getz be in such a rush to sign anyone when the Sox are a non-contender but the champion Rangers were smart enough to wait it out?  It was not vital for Getz to rush to sign anyone.  We saw Hahn do this all the time in the past as well.  He rushed to sign the low to mid-level free agents that he wanted early, and better players ended up signing for less later on.  Getz did the same this offseason.

I think if you're a bottom feeder you have to sign folks early. Imagine if the Sox were still in the bidding waiting on an arm. Where do you think the player will go? World Series team or Sox? He waits he has nothing and in a real man. They also have to overpay. 

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, Texsox said:

I think if you're a bottom feeder you have to sign folks early. Imagine if the Sox were still in the bidding waiting on an arm. Where do you think the player will go? World Series team or Sox? He waits he has nothing and in a real man. They also have to overpay. 

It’s one thing to judge expensive contracts signed early (Top 10-25) because setting aside owner collusion, several or more teams are interested in obtaining these types of players. 

For the low end under $10M deals, hard to quibble about overpaying by a few million here or there. Really can’t quibble about the actual pitcher signings this offseason. Just wished they brought in a 1 or two additional pitchers like Cueto, Hill or others not in any camp who could have been plugged in for April starts, and beyond if effective or to cover future injuries or demotions.

Rather spend several million on a Rich Hill and Cueto than on redundant retirees like Moustakas, Maldonado, Pillar, etc. 

[WestEddy]

2 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Rather spend several million on a Rich Hill and Cueto than on redundant retirees like Moustakas, Maldonado, Pillar, etc. 

A couple of you guys keep saying this. Cueto and Moustakas don't overlap. Moose, Maldonado or Pillar doesn't keep the Sox from signing Cueto. And the fact they didn't sign somebody not as good as Soroka for $15 million means they can sign Cueto if they really want or need him. 

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

A couple of you guys keep saying this. Cueto and Moustakas don't overlap. Moose, Maldonado or Pillar doesn't keep the Sox from signing Cueto. And the fact they didn't sign somebody not as good as Soroka for $15 million means they can sign Cueto if they really want or need him. 

Fedde...but the point stands.

If they were trying to claw back $100+ million in losses since the Covid year (supposedly), there was zero reason to "waste" so much of it (roughly $30 million) on these veterans...and absolutely ZERO real Sox fans believe they're competing for the division with this motley crew of expendables.

Edited March 22 by caulfield12

[South Side Hit Men]

18 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

A couple of you guys keep saying this. Cueto and Moustakas don't overlap. Moose, Maldonado or Pillar doesn't keep the Sox from signing Cueto. And the fact they didn't sign somebody not as good as Soroka for $15 million means they can sign Cueto if they really want or need him. 

We can only surmise what Jerry’s budget marching orders. Jerry likely gave Chris a hard / firm payroll number, or a tight window, to get payroll under $130M (currently $55M under 2023 per Cot’s). It looks probable Jerry ordered Cease gone before OD to avoid paying salary vs. his interest in any prospect acquisition.

Can also see Jerry micromanaging yet another GM he hired on training wheels, perhaps running select decisions past Tony as well, on contracts above $1-2M, or whether to start the clock on top prospects or to  slow walk them like Luis Robert.

Also, pitching performance in terms of veteran starting pitchers signed or considered as NRIs is irrelevant beyond the number of innings they can help you reach 1,450 without rushing young prospects plus Crochet, since he never was a professional starter and barely was in college, or killing your bullpen.

Edited March 22 by South Side Hit Men

[WestEddy]

29 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Fedde...but the point stands.

$15 million a year. 

I'm not sure who anybody thought Getz would be signing up this off-season. If those were the constraints he was put under, he actually did a great job. 

[WestEddy]

29 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Also, pitching performance in terms of veteran starting pitchers signed or considered as NRIs is irrelevant beyond the number of innings they can help you reach 1,450 without rushing young prospects plus Crochet, since he never was a professional starter and barely was in college, or killing your bullpen.

Hey, did you hear that Garret Crochet never had a professional start in his Major league career? That's crazy. I never heard that before. Also, did you hear that Garret Crochet never had a professional start in his Major league career? That's insane. I never heard that before. Conversely, did you hear that Garret Crochet never had a professional start in his Major league career? That's nutso. I never heard that before. But that's not the worst of it, did you hear that Garret Crochet never had a professional start in his Major league career? That's stark raving na-na. I never heard that before.

[WhiteSox2023]

2 hours ago, Texsox said:

I think if you're a bottom feeder you have to sign folks early. Imagine if the Sox were still in the bidding waiting on an arm. Where do you think the player will go? World Series team or Sox? He waits he has nothing and in a real man. They also have to overpay. 

Maybe for targeting and acquiring good players, but Getz didn’t go after any because the Sox aren’t anywhere near a window of competition.  So if you are a bottom feeder team, you can wait for the scraps, especially the guys Getz acquired.  Was any team rushing to sign bums like Maldonado, DeJong, Pillar, Flexen, and most of the bullpen?  What’s the worst that could happen if Getz missed out on a target?  Nothing.  They would still be bad, just as they were/are expected to be.

Edited March 22 by WhiteSox2023

[Texsox]

46 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Maybe for targeting and acquiring good players, but Getz didn’t go after any because the Sox aren’t anywhere near a window of competition.  So if you are a bottom feeder team, you can wait for the scraps, especially the guys Getz acquired.  Was any team rushing to sign bums like Maldonado, DeJong, Pillar, Flexen, and most of the bullpen?  What’s the worst that could happen if Getz missed out on a target?  Nothing.  They would still be bad, just as they were/are expected to be.

The worst that could happen is guys that should be in AAA are rushed to the majors when the team has holes that they waited until the last minute to fill and came up empty. 

[WestEddy]

2 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Was any team rushing to sign bums like Maldonado, DeJong, Pillar, Flexen, and most of the bullpen?  What’s the worst that could happen if Getz missed out on a target?  Nothing.  They would still be bad, just as they were/are expected to be.

Martin Maldonado was signed January 5th. Chris Getz must have done a great job this off-season if you're down to arguing that he should have signed Maldonado a day later. Just because. 

Edited March 22 by WestEddy