Koch to the Mets?

[AssHatSoxFan]

ok well this post is serious about a koch trade that i just read from gammons

 

"The Mets will see if the White Sox will swap Billy Koch's $6.375 million contract for Roger Cedeno and his remaining $10.6 million, split the difference and reunite Koch with pitching coach Rick Peterson."

 

interesting but I would only want to trade him to clear cap room not to take on cedeno or anyone else

[Bighurt52235]

ok well this post is serious about a koch trade that i just read from gammons

 

"The Mets will see if the White Sox will swap Billy Koch's $6.375 million contract for Roger Cedeno and his remaining $10.6 million, split the difference and reunite Koch with pitching coach Rick Peterson."

 

interesting but I would only want to trade him to clear cap room not to take on cedeno or anyone else

How many years are on Cedeno's contract? 3, I might. 2, no.

 

The guy is a prick, but he can run! But, unfortunately, he has iron hands out in left.

[CubKilla]

Wilbur Wood??? 

Charlie Hough

[rafacosta]

Is it just me, or does anyone else think that Anthony 007 and mike12345 is the same person?  There is NO way that TWO INDIVIDUALS could feel this way.

Yes, he(mike and anthony) is doing this for a long time...

[winninguglyin83]

An emphatic NO on Roger Cedeno.

 

rather take a chance on Koch bouncing back.

 

We have guys who deserve a chance in CF. Cedeno ain't one of them.

 

NO TO THAT MOVE, KW.

[T R U]

me and Mike arent the same person I dont know how many times it has to be said and prooven before you get it through your head..

 

As a matter of fact we were both in the Chat Room the other night doin trivia and DBAHO and Yahztee Sox were BOTH in there while we were..

 

So PLEASE we get accused of that a million times, just give it up already

[Guest JimH]

I would definitely trade Koch and his contract for Roger Cedeno ... Cedeno is not as bad an outfielder as you guys are saying.

 

He's got the speed to play CF, he doesn't have quite the plate discipline I'd like but he's a bigger threat than anyone we have now.

 

I say YES.

[SuperSteve]

I would definitely trade Koch and his contract for Roger Cedeno ... Cedeno is not as bad an outfielder as you guys are saying.

 

He's got the speed to play CF, he doesn't have quite the plate discipline I'd like but he's a bigger threat than anyone we have now.

 

I say YES.

Um, Cedeno makes about a million less than Koch, and has an extra year on his contract. Cedeno also is awful in the field. I would not do the trade straight up, however I would do it with cash and prospects included.

[winninguglyin83]

Like the return of Royce Ring, maybe.

 

they can keep Almonte and the second baseman

[whitesox61382]

Straight up this would be a terrible deal for the Sox. The whole reason for attempting to trade Koch is to free up some money, but if they take Cedeno they would only save about 1M AND would have to put up with Cedeno for 2 years opposed to getting Koch's salary off the books in 1 year. Not only that, but at best Cedeno is a good 4th outfielder opposed to Koch who at best is a good closer. Koch has much more valuable, even after his sub-par season. If the Mets don't include a very good prospect or 2, than this is a terrible deal for the Sox.

[Guest JimH]

What it comes down to is the ability to unlock potential, or, putting it another way, getting the best out of a guy's ability.

 

The Mets feel by reuniting Koch with Peterson, they can get a top notch closer.

 

Koch's mechanics were way off this year, and for whatever reason, Cooper couldn't get him back on track. Whether the tender elbow was at fault, or the the huge workload with Oakland in 2002, who's to say.

 

Cedeno is a switch hitter with very good speed. Going out on a (big) limb here, maybe he's the type of guy Guillen can work with, i.e. get into his head to play small ball. It's obvious Cedeno has good skills, and he wouldn't be the first guy who failed in NY. He's got his best years ahead of him.

 

I don't know ... I just don't like Koch's inability to throw strikes. Every save situation shouldn't be a high wire act.

 

The Sox have Marte as a closer-in-waiting if they can't get something done with Gordon. They'd have to build the bullpen with a couple of 7th/8th inning guys, like Sullivan and "someone" else, but Cedeno could be a good fit for this team.

 

If Williams is making the decisions down there, he's proven he'll take risks. I wouldn't be surprised to see this deal get done. Of course, just like you guys, I'd love to see the Mets throw in a prospect or two but given Koch is only signed through '04 I wouldn't bank on it. Unless the deal was expanded, then who knows what would happen?

[Guest JimH]

Guys, to add to this topic ...

 

Cedeno's career fielding % is .977, not too bad.

 

He's also a native of Venezuela ...

 

Hmmmmmmm ...

[Flash Tizzle]

The Sox have Marte as a closer-in-waiting if they can't get something done with Gordon.  They'd have to build the bullpen with a couple of 7th/8th inning guys, like Sullivan and "someone" else, but Cedeno could be a good fit for this team.

I dont like the idea of Marte as closer. Its just a very different feel to move from setup to closer. Sure Marte did some of the work two seasons ago but that was when Sox were long out of the pennant race. Would you rather have him go to closer and fail or stay as setup and dominate. He could possibly do great as closer but IF he fails then you risk a Kochesque performance. Definately dont need Martes confidence blown too......

 

Gordon has pitched as closer for several different teams, and barring an injury would probably be best at that position. Alternating Wunsch, Sully, Koch, Marte (and whoever else) leading up to Gordon would give me confidence of our ability to shut a game down.

 

And to undermind this post I just feel the Koch/Cedano trade is a bad idea. The rest he was given in 03' should leave no excuse from him not to perform at an Oakland level.

[Guest JimH]

Marte did some closing in 2003 too.

 

I prefer your scenario too, with the guys you mentioned setting it up for Gordon.

 

The key is, will they re-sign Gordon? I think that's 50/50 at best.

 

But Marte has a lot of confidence and has experience being in very difficult situations. He know how to strike guys out, is durable, and wants to pitch with the game on the line. All very good attributes for a closer.

[whitesox61382]

Cedeno just isn't that good. He really hasn't had sucess anyway including NY. He is simply a good 4th outfielder, nothing more nothing less. He is a .260-.270 hitter, with no power(you will be lucky to get 30 extra base hits out of him in a full season), below average plate disipline, great speed, and below average D(he is very bad defensively and might be worse in CF then Everett was). The guy has been in the prime of his career the last couple of years and has seen his number go down, so I don't understand why you think his better days are ahead of him?

 

I got a feeling that KW and company might see him as a sparkplug, similar to Pierre in Florida, but the big difference is that Pierre is a .300 hitter, and Cedeno is a .260-.270 hitter. I really think Rowand is a better player then Cedeno and should be starting in CF. I also think that Harris is a better 4th outfielder, considering his D and speed advantage(only slightly in the speed catogory), which are the 2 most important aspects off the bench IMO. So I ask what role would Cedeno have on this team that can't be filled by a younger, cheaper, more talented player?

 

I am not suggesting that Koch should close next year, in fact I would really hope that he doesn't, however I do think he will be better and a solid guy to possible set up, if not eat a bunch of innings in the pen. IMO that is more important then a 4th outfielder, and thats why I feel Koch has more value. Not to mention the big upside difference. There is a chance that Koch could get back to his previous ways in which he is a solid closer type reliever, opposed to Cedeno who at his best is a very good 4th outfielder/spot starter.

 

I believe the contract issue works in Koch's favor. While both are being overpaid, the fact that Koch only has 1 year left is a good thing. IF he gets back to his old ways and the Mets like what they see, than they can resign him probably for less then he is current making given the current market. Conversely, if he struggles, than they can let him walk and get his contract off the books(opposed to having to put up with another year of Cedeno). The Sox would be stuck with Cedeno for 2 years at a ridiculous price, opposed to being in the situtation discribed above. IMO having only 1 year left on his contract is an advantage, and not a disadvantage.

 

I am sticking to my belief that this trade straight up would be terrible for the Sox, however, if the Mets include a good prospect or 2 it might make it interesting.

[SuperSteve]

Straight up this would be a terrible deal for the Sox. The whole reason for attempting to trade Koch is to free up some money, but if they take Cedeno they would only save about 1M AND would have to put up with Cedeno for 2 years opposed to getting Koch's salary off the books in 1 year. Not only that, but at best Cedeno is a good 4th outfielder opposed to Koch who at best is a good closer. Koch has much more valuable, even after his sub-par season. If the Mets don't include a very good prospect or 2, than this is a terrible deal for the Sox.

I apreciate you repeating me.

[whitesox61382]

You were kidding about that .977 fielding percantage right? Considering it would have ranked 19th out of the 20 outfielders that qualified in the AL. I have seen Cedeno play quite a bit(going to school on the East Coast the past couple of year) and he is terrible defensively any way that you slice it. He misplays a ton of balls and his range actually isn't as good as you may think despite his good speed.

 

I actually have confidence in Marte as a closer. Sure there is a different mentality when you closer, but when you dominate as much as Marte has over the past couple of years(versus both righties and lefties) I highly doubt that would change much just because he was a closer(he has done it before). I think he could get by just on his stuff, and who knows he might have the perfect mentality as well considering we really don't know at this point.

 

I would rather the Sox go after someone besides Gordon. Giving his past history in regards to injury, his age, and his workload last year I think he will be a big risk next year and could get injuried(although I hope for the best even if he isn't on the Sox). Besides there are a ton of good relievers that have been solid closers before on the FA market, some that the Sox could get for less then they would have to pay Gordon.

 

"I apreciate you repeating me."

 

I haven't read the entire thread so I have no clue what other have said before me in regards to this issue. I guess great minds think alike though.

[Guest JimH]

Koch and Cedeno are the same age, so they both could have upside.

 

Gordon will not return if the Koch situation isn't resolved in some fashion, based on quotes from his agent. If Koch is given the closers role, Gordon will go elsewhere. Koch will not be a $6 million dollar set up man. It may make sense for you and me to say, "well, let's just make Koch the set up guy or let him eat innings" but there isn't a GM out there who will build a team that way, and the Sox certainly don't operate that way. They traded Foulke for just that reason, they lost confidence in him and gambled they'd be getting a dominant closer.

 

It didn't work out that way.

 

To say Cedeno is just a 4th outfileder, I don't see where you're getting that. He's been a FT outfielder for a few years now. A 4th outfielder with the Sox? He certainly has more talent and experience than Rowand or Harris. I don't dislike Rowand, but if the Sox intend to be a contender ... and they want speed ... Cedeno is a better fit than Rowand. Rowand is much more of a 4th outfielder type than Cedeno. Rowand can play all three OF positions too.

 

Let's face it, it's a gamble if they trade Koch, it's a gamble if they keep him. They could not get his mechanics straight this year. Who's to say they'll suddenly be able to do that in '04?

 

For my part, I'd rather have a guy who can hit .265 and steal some bases and play decent CF than have a guy be a $6 million dollar mop up man. And remember, Cedeno was in CF at Comerica a couple years ago ... much roomier CF than USCF.

 

Don't get me wrong ... I'm not saying Cedeno is an ideal CF for the Sox, but I am saying there are certainly some things which would make sense to bring him here. First, he can play CF and we've got a hole there. Second, the Mets are reported to have an interest in picking up a guy who basically gave us nothing last year, at a big salary. Third, and this is maybe reaching a bit, but Cedeno is Venezuelan and so is Guillen ... Guillen might be a good spark for him.

 

Everett was decent out in CF and has had bad knees. I think Cedeno can give you what Carl did, defensively at least. And Guillen has seen a lot of Cedeno from the National League, and I'm not willing to discount Guillens' influence just yet. He's already stated he wants speed ... Cedeno brings that.

 

I certainly agree the situation isn't ideal but if Koch is kept, Gordon is highly likely to go somewhere else.

 

I'm more comfortable with Gordon as closer than Koch, that's what it comes down to in my mind. If you can move Koch, lose nothing in the salary equation ('04), fill a hole in CF ... why not? And even if you move Koch and Gordon signs elsewhere, you've got Marte and then you beef up the bullpen behind him.

 

KW (or whomever the brain trust is at 35th and Shields) wasn't comfortable giving Rowand the full time gig when they were going for the division, they went out and got Carl. So why would we suddenly say they'll just give the job to Rowand, when they've repeatedly said they plan to contend (or at least KW has said that).

 

All of this could be mooy anyway, because Eddie Guardado is hot for the Mets and something could very well work out that way, thus negating the Mets interest in Koch.

 

Interesting to talk about though.

[whitesox61382]

I didn't mean potential/upside in regards to age, but in regards to reverting back to their better days. Before last year Koch was a solid, but not great closer. Opposed to Cedeno who was a very good 4th outfielder, but an average at best everyday outfielder. If both realize their upside(based on previous history), than Koch's value far outweighs Cedeno's. Thats what I meant.

 

I disagree with your opinion on the money they make and the role they play. I don't think management will have any problem with a 6M set up guy, IF THATS WHATS BEST FOR THE TEAM. Just because you make a lot of money doesn't guarantee you any role. If he pitches well as a set-up guy, than maybe he can regain his closer role. The fact is that the Sox might be stuck with Koch, given his contract and poor play. If Koch is more valuable to this team as a set-up pitcher because he isn't pitching well enough to be a closer, than why would they put him in the closer role? They still have to pay him 6M no matter what role he is in so why not put him in the role that gives the team the best chance to win. I am sure management would hate paying a set-up guy 6M, but they do understand the concept of whats best for the team.

 

Cedeno is a 4th outfielder because he has never had 550+ AB's in a season and only twice has had more then 500. Some of that is because of injury, but most of that is because he simply isn't that good. Better then Rowand? Here is Rowand's average season versus Cedeno average season(given a full year):

 

Cedeno: 550 AB .275/7/49 42 SB .343 OBP .374 SLG .717 OPS

Rowand: 550 AB .273/16/70 5 SB .325 OBP .418 SLG .743 OPS

 

The only area where Cedeno has a distinct advantage is speed. Rowand has more power and is also much better defensively. I believe that Rowand is the better player at this point AND has more upside then Cedeno. Not to mention the fact that Rowand makes around the min. and Cedeno pulls in about 5M/yr.

 

I will repeat this again...Cedeno is a defensive liability and would probably be the worst defensive CF in the AL. The 1st thing I want out of my CF is good D, so I wouldn't say that he address the CF need. Rowand wasn't given the CF job doing the stretch run because he struggled early in the season(I fully believe that this was a hangover from his offseason injury). If Rowand had performed like he did at the end of the season I would be willing to beat they wouldn't have gotten Everett. The way that I see it is that Rowand is a better offensive and defensive CF then Cedeno, with Cedeno only having an advantage in SB, which is drasticly overrated in todays game.

[Guest JimH]

Where do you get the Rowand 55 AB stats, just an extrapolation of his partial year stats?

 

That's not a fair argument to say he's better than Cedeno.

 

You've seen Cedeno a lot from living on the east coast, I've seen Rowand a lot in person. Projecting Rowand to have a .400+ OBP is pie in the sky.

 

Rowand is much more of a 4th outfielder than Cedeno, at least to this point.

Plain and simple, Cedeno has been a regular OF, Rowand has not.

 

Cedeno had 3 errors in 128 games in 2003, I don't see how that categorizes the guy as a defensive liability. I've seen Rowand misread some fly ball routes too.

 

As for Koch and their willingness to pay $6M for a setup guy ... well, if they get stuck with him, yes, you're right. Maybe that would be best for the team.

 

That being said, it's obvious they don't want to pay $6M for a set up guy, or more accurately, a mop up guy, which is what Koch did much of the year. History with the White Sox shows when they lose confidence in a guy, they try to move him and fill another hole. Foulke is a good example, they lost confidence in him and he was dealt.

[Guest JimH]

Oops, sorry, I see the .418 stat was slugging, not OBP. Sorry about that.

 

Even still, when projected out (which I still think is not a fair assessment), Rowand OBP is lower than Cedeno's was, right?

 

Aren't the Sox, based on Guillens statements, wanting speed, OBP, and small ball?

[whitesox61382]

Where do you get the Rowand 55 AB stats, just an extrapolation of his partial year stats?

 

That's not a fair argument to say he's better than Cedeno.

 

You've seen Cedeno a lot from living on the east coast, I've seen Rowand a lot in person.  Projecting Rowand to have a .400+ OBP is pie in the sky.

 

Rowand is much more of a 4th outfielder than Cedeno, at least to this point.

Plain and simple, Cedeno has been a regular OF, Rowand has not.

 

Cedeno had 3 errors in 128 games in 2003, I don't see how that categorizes the guy as a defensive liability. I've seen Rowand misread some fly ball routes too.

 

As for Koch and their willingness to pay $6M for a setup guy ... well, if they get stuck with him, yes, you're right.  Maybe that would be best for the team.

 

That being said, it's obvious they don't want to pay $6M for a set up guy, or more accurately, a mop up guy, which is what Koch did much of the year.  History with the White Sox shows when they lose confidence in a guy, they try to move him and fill another hole.  Foulke is a good example, they lost confidence in him and he was dealt.

The 550 AB's was just a random number to show their numbers evenly projected over a full season. The fact is that Rowand has over 550 AB's over his career and has posted a respectible .743 OPS in those AB's, which is quite a bit higher then Cedeno's .717. IMO 582 AB's is a big enough sample size to start analysis on Rowand's stats. Furthermore, I believe the fact that he has put up those numbers in spartic playing time is even more encouraging. What is to lead you to believe that he is going to put up numbers that are worse then his career .743 OPS? At the very worst it is worth giving him a chance.

 

The major reason I don't like Cedeno is his defense. IMO defense should be the #1 priority for your CF, and having the worst CF in the majors defensively makes me want to puke. Mark my words he is down right terrible defensively. Here is ESPN's profile analysis of Cedeno's defense.

 

"Cedeno's difficulties with the bat carried over onto the field, which served as a major reason that the Mets had one of baseball's worst defensive outfields. He's an awful glove man who has more errors than assists in his career. He overruns balls to both his left and right, and the accuracy of his throws ranks among the worst in the game."

 

This analysis is being generous. I have subscriptions to far more indepth analysis and it is even worse then the above. Cedeno makes Rowand look like Torii Hunter in CF defensively. The fact is that Cedeno is the following:

 

a .260-.270 hitter

no power(30 extra base hits is a great season for him)

poor plate disipline

terrible defensively

great speed

 

Is that not a description of a 4th outfielder? When you take of the rosy glasses you will see what every one else sees. Rowand has given the Sox a mid-.700 OPS and solid D in CF albeit in a small sample size(which is a lot more then Cedeno has shown), and deserves to start in CF over a career 4th outfielder like Cedeno. Mark my words, Rowand is a much better option in CF.

[BrandoFan]

Where do you get the Rowand 55 AB stats, just an extrapolation of his partial year stats?

 

That's not a fair argument to say he's better than Cedeno.

 

You've seen Cedeno a lot from living on the east coast, I've seen Rowand a lot in person.  Projecting Rowand to have a .400+ OBP is pie in the sky.

 

Rowand is much more of a 4th outfielder than Cedeno, at least to this point.

Plain and simple, Cedeno has been a regular OF, Rowand has not.

 

Cedeno had 3 errors in 128 games in 2003, I don't see how that categorizes the guy as a defensive liability. I've seen Rowand misread some fly ball routes too.

 

As for Koch and their willingness to pay $6M for a setup guy ... well, if they get stuck with him, yes, you're right.  Maybe that would be best for the team.

 

That being said, it's obvious they don't want to pay $6M for a set up guy, or more accurately, a mop up guy, which is what Koch did much of the year.  History with the White Sox shows when they lose confidence in a guy, they try to move him and fill another hole.  Foulke is a good example, they lost confidence in him and he was dealt.

The 550 AB's was just a random number to show their numbers evenly projected over a full season. The fact is that Rowand has over 550 AB's over his career and has posted a respectible .743 OPS in those AB's, which is quite a bit higher then Cedeno's .717. IMO 582 AB's is a big enough sample size to start analysis on Rowand's stats. Furthermore, I believe the fact that he has put up those numbers in spartic playing time is even more encouraging. What is to lead you to believe that he is going to put up numbers that are worse then his career .743 OPS? At the very worst it is worth giving him a chance.

 

The major reason I don't like Cedeno is his defense. IMO defense should be the #1 priority for your CF, and having the worst CF in the majors defensively makes me want to puke. Mark my words he is down right terrible defensively. Here is ESPN's profile analysis of Cedeno's defense.

 

"Cedeno's difficulties with the bat carried over onto the field, which served as a major reason that the Mets had one of baseball's worst defensive outfields. He's an awful glove man who has more errors than assists in his career. He overruns balls to both his left and right, and the accuracy of his throws ranks among the worst in the game."

 

This analysis is being generous. I have subscriptions to far more indepth analysis and it is even worse then the above. Cedeno makes Rowand look like Torii Hunter in CF defensively. The fact is that Cedeno is the following:

 

a .260-.270 hitter

no power(30 extra base hits is a great season for him)

poor plate disipline

terrible defensively

great speed

 

Is that not a description of a 4th outfielder? When you take of the rosy glasses you will see what every one else sees. Rowand has given the Sox a mid-.700 OPS and solid D in CF albeit in a small sample size(which is a lot more then Cedeno has shown), and deserves to start in CF over a career 4th outfielder like Cedeno. Mark my words, Rowand is a much better option in CF.

Damn, you're right, Sox should definately hold out for Garret Anderson.

[DBAHO]

We definitely should not do this deal, unless we make it a 3 way deal, where Cedeno is dumped off to another club, and we get prospects or a good starting pitcher in return. If Vlad leaves Montreal, the Expos mite look at Cedeno to replace him, and mayb we can steal Livan Hernandez off em if we giv em a prospect or some cash.

[Capn12]

I'm sorry, but this trade makes EVEN LESS sense than the $5 mill option for JosE6. Yeah, Koch had a bad year, and we signed him to a 2 year contract before we saw him collapse. But that makes you want to trade him for an EXTREMELY overrated, aextremely overpaid OFer in Cedeno that we don't even have room for? WTF Kenny, get your s*** together. If they do this, then its almost guaranteed that Gordon will be brought back, wasting another $5 mill. Jeezus, I'm completely lost right now in terms of what the hell KW is trying to do, and methinks he is confused also.