Under what scenario would you consider offering Crochet and/or Kopech extensions?

[zisk]

On 5/26/2024 at 5:57 AM, wrathofhahn said:

Considering Kopech's lack of trade value, I would be inclined to give him a short extension. We will see if he can bounce back next year when we get him back into the rotation; if not, he is signed for a modest return, and given his skill set, there is a good chance he will have a good season eventually.

He is still a strong candidate to bounce back and prove something, even if he chooses not to sign the extension. As a rental, he is the kind of player I would be looking to buy low and sell high, so it makes no sense to trade him for scraps right now and then replace him with garbage that will never be worth anything next year. Accept the risk of a injury and let the cards fall where they may next year.

Garrett Crochet I'd trade for a good return. It is less about the 11 starts and more about where the team stands talent-wise. He simply lacks the control to keep him around. Sure, if he is open to a very team-friendly contract, but he is only 24 years old and will likely become a free agent in the 26–27 age range.

He'll want to explore FA and we will have to pay a premium to keep him. Since we are not going to be good in the near future, I genuinely do not understand why we would take a chance on a large extension with his arm history and where this team currently stands. Take the prospects and let some other team make the gamble that is closer to contention so they feel they should take that kind of risk
 

I understand your doubts about the next few seasons. I honestly think you are mistaken. No player can change a

teams fortunes like a great starting pitcher. The Sox actually have 3-4 guys who could end up being the best pitcher

on almost any team. Crochet, Schultz, Grant Taylor and maybe Drew Thorpe. Every one of these guys is either MLB

ready or could be in one year or less. Watch Grant Taylor closely the rest of this season. He would have been a top

3 pick in the draft except for TJS. It appears he is now healthy and didn't lose a thing due to the surgery. I know we

are the worst organization in baseball, but I am cautiously optimistic about about the second half of 2025 and beyond.

Keep in mind we have another 5-6 very good starting pitcher prospects behind these other 4. 

[WhiteSox2023]

18 minutes ago, zisk said:

I understand your doubts about the next few seasons. I honestly think you are mistaken. No player can change a

teams fortunes like a great starting pitcher. The Sox actually have 3-4 guys who could end up being the best pitcher

on almost any team. Crochet, Schultz, Grant Taylor and maybe Drew Thorpe. Every one of these guys is either MLB

ready or could be in one year or less. Watch Grant Taylor closely the rest of this season. He would have been a top

3 pick in the draft except for TJS. It appears he is now healthy and didn't lose a thing due to the surgery. I know we

are the worst organization in baseball, but I am cautiously optimistic about about the second half of 2025 and beyond.

Keep in mind we have another 5-6 very good starting pitcher prospects behind these other 4. 

The Sox currently have zero offense and have zero guaranteed stud MLB position players/hitters in the minors.

Edited June 2 by WhiteSox2023

[Lip Man 1]

19 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

The Sox currently have zero offense and have zero guaranteed stud MLB position players/hitters in the minors.

And current ownership refuses to pay top dollar for the best hitters that come on the market every year. 

[caulfield12]

Kopech...might as well just release him and move on from the Hahn taint, but they'll get SOMETHING for him eventually, some pitching coach will have a magical fix in mind, like tipping pitches or opening up too early or about his stride/landing, etc.

[caulfield12]

On 6/2/2024 at 11:50 AM, Lip Man 1 said:

And current ownership refuses to pay top dollar for the best hitters that come on the market every year. 

White Sox: LHP Garrett Crochet
Previous All-Star appearances: None

It’s the left-hander’s first year in the starting rotation after parts of three seasons working out of the bullpen, but it would be difficult to tell from his impressive results. Crochet leads the Majors with an average of 12 strikeouts per 9 innings and is tied for third with 93 strikeouts. Those 93 strikeouts are the most by a White Sox pitcher in his first 13 career starts, breaking the mark of 88 set by Chris Sale in 2012. He had a 24-inning scoreless streak from May 4-27, and while the White Sox will watch his innings total, there has been no signs of the southpaw slowing down. -- Scott Merkin mlb.com

[wrathofhahn]

On 6/1/2024 at 11:11 PM, zisk said:

I understand your doubts about the next few seasons. I honestly think you are mistaken. No player can change a

teams fortunes like a great starting pitcher. The Sox actually have 3-4 guys who could end up being the best pitcher

on almost any team. Crochet, Schultz, Grant Taylor and maybe Drew Thorpe. Every one of these guys is either MLB

ready or could be in one year or less. Watch Grant Taylor closely the rest of this season. He would have been a top

3 pick in the draft except for TJS. It appears he is now healthy and didn't lose a thing due to the surgery. I know we

are the worst organization in baseball, but I am cautiously optimistic about about the second half of 2025 and beyond.

Keep in mind we have another 5-6 very good starting pitcher prospects behind these other 4. 

We have the worst roster in baseball and have a middling farm system. MLB.com actually has us ranked in the bottom half 20th.

Our prospects are nowhere nearly regarded as you let on. We have some interesting guys who have the kind of stuff to potentially be frontline starters but most are older guys who are projected to have the ceiling of backend or middle type rotation starters.

That is fine but nothing to really get excited over. This team needs a ton of work. Part of the reason why I didn't really like Thorpe is his stuff is underwhelming and he is dependent on his changeup as a chase pitch. I have seen so many starters come up through the minors with a great changeup then peter out because hitters will just sit on their fastball and refuse to chase.

Ricky Romero was one of those guys. There are guys that have been able to make it work like Kluber and Keuchel and pitch into their 30's but they are the exception not the norm and until I see Thorpe stuff translate against MLB hitters I'm never going to put much stock into his MILB stats. It's one thing to get MILB batters to chase and get by with smoke and mirrors in the minors it's another to do it at the ML level. 

As far as Kopech goes I hope someone offers something for him I just doubt that would be the case and if its not there is really no reason not to keep him considering he is a live arm and exactly the kind of guy we should have filling out the roster considering the upside.

Especially if we move guys like Fedde and Crochet.

Edited June 9 by wrathofhahn

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

On 5/22/2024 at 3:56 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

A good org identifies as early as possible.

Of guys with a k% > 32, who have thrown 50 or more innings as a starter since 2019, only two have had a bb% as low as Garrett (Scherzer and Degrom) and he's 7th in K-BB rate for anyone with > 50IP as a starter since 2015. 

Crochet is special. If he stays healthy he's in a 1-1 conversation. Health is a risk, but the tools are there. 

Said it on April 5th and then more since then.

Sox should have announced an extension the day they named him opening day starter. 

Sox were late to the party on crochet and now will move on from a generational talent despite having nothing on the payroll. 

The above numbers have gotten better and he now leads pitchers in fWAR by .5 wins. 15% better than everyone else. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Said it on April 5th and then more since then.

Sox should have announced an extension the day they named him opening day starter. 

Sox were late to the party on crochet and now will move on from a generational talent despite having nothing on the payroll. 

The above numbers have gotten better and he now leads pitchers in fWAR by .5 wins. 15% better than everyone else. 

Somehow, this whole situation with Crochet (upcoming Bottom Quintile payroll, and cutting all of it but Benintendi in all likelihood) is even MORE depressing than the Semien/Swisher, Shields and Sale trades.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Somehow, this whole situation with Crochet (upcoming Bottom Quintile payroll, and cutting all of it but Benintendi in all likelihood) is even MORE depressing than the Semien/Swisher, Shields and Sale trades.

Nick Swisher retired 9 years ago, and was traded by the Sox 16 years ago.  Why is that relevant to Garrett Crochet?

[T R U]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Said it on April 5th and then more since then.

Sox should have announced an extension the day they named him opening day starter. 

Sox were late to the party on crochet and now will move on from a generational talent despite having nothing on the payroll. 

The above numbers have gotten better and he now leads pitchers in fWAR by .5 wins. 15% better than everyone else. 

There is not a team in MLB that would have signed Crochet to an extension this past offseason.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, T R U said:

There is not a team in MLB that would have signed Crochet to an extension this past offseason.

And I would have been shocked if Crochet would have been willing to accept the type of extension that he would have been offered before this season.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, T R U said:

There is not a team in MLB that would have signed Crochet to an extension this past offseason.

Well, isn't it easier to bet on your own internally-developed players, though?

They've failed with the Lynn extension, with Lopez/Giolito/Kopech/Cease, with Rodon/Kimbrel and now with Crochet.

Pretty consistent.  Almost like it's deliberate.

[WestEddy]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, isn't it easier to bet on your own internally-developed players, though?

They've failed with the Lynn extension, with Lopez/Giolito/Kopech/Cease, with Rodon/Kimbrel and now with Crochet.

Pretty consistent.  Almost like it's deliberate.

Define "failed". 

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Define "failed". 

Received less than full value upon departing the organization...or NOTHING.

One could argue about Giolito and Lopez, of course, depending upon your belief in the acquired players, as well as Cease.

[greg775]

Change Kopech to a starter. If not willing to do that, dump him for peanuts. He's stealing money in the bullpen as a lousy closer. ... And yes I'd prefer keeping him and making him a starter.

Edited July 3 by greg775

[WestEddy]

13 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Change Kopech to a starter. If not willing to do that, dump him for peanuts. He's stealing money in the bullpen as a lousy closer. ... And yes I'd prefer keeping him and making him a starter.

Or, keep him as a closer, let other teams think they can fix him, then trade him as a power arm. They've made about three runs at making him a starter. He's a head case. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 6/1/2024 at 8:30 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

The Sox currently have zero offense and have zero guaranteed stud MLB position players/hitters in the minors.

Quite an ambiguous statement. Please identify what qualifies as a stud and how you know who is one and who isn't.Then please also tell me the guaranteed studs you already know of in the minors. The Sox could use your expertise.

[Lip Man 1]

3 hours ago, greg775 said:

Change Kopech to a starter. If not willing to do that, dump him for peanuts. He's stealing money in the bullpen as a lousy closer. ... And yes I'd prefer keeping him and making him a starter.

What was he the previous few years?

A starter...make that a failed starter. ?

[caulfield12]

In the scenario where JR has to at least create the appearance of competing.

Without that, any stadium project would get pushed back 2-3 years or killed off entirely with this ownership group.

With Crochet, Thorpe, Cannon and Schultz…you have a solid foundation in the upper minors and majors, lots of depth pieces and room for growth out of Taylor and many others.

You can compete much faster than waiting on even an average offense.

And you’re not going to get close to full value to Crochet in terms of increasing the resale value of the team through a new downtown stadium and picturesque views to compete with Wrigley…as well as a feeling of more secutity to out of towners and tour groups.

[Dam8610]

On 4/2/2024 at 10:16 PM, caulfield12 said:

Obviously 2-3 months from this becoming a more serious consideration,

BUT

1) White Sox desperately need "feel good" redemption stories after the unpopular Burger trade, both were considered key parts of the rebuild at one point

2) MAYBE MAYBE MAYBE Kopech can just let it loose as a closer/reliever and get away with it (obviously going to have to increase his slider usage though)

3) Both pitchers have/had such uncertain futures that guaranteeing or locking in XYZ amount of money right now (for the future) would or could be QUITE attractive...as getting injured again (TJS) would come close to spelling the end of both of their careers.   Risk mitigation.  Of course that works from JR's side as well.

4) They're going to have to start thinking of Crochet more as a "long term asset" and less as a push him to the brink (see Rodon 2021) type of situation where they knew he was leaving at the end of the year.

 

Other than Montgomery, there aren't really any obvious players you would even consider for an extension.   Robert, Jr., seems to be out of the question entirely at this point.

 

OFC, the thinking coming into this year was just to pump and dump nearly everyone on the roster, but at some point you have to draw a line in the sand and say "the future starts now."

Otherwise, there will never be an official date for when they're expected to start competing in such a weak-ass division.

 

And you also need to have guys like this to draw/excite fans...with REAL talent and charisma that fans can actually get behind.

 

I would try to extend both, but that would be with a different owner and GM. Given the current owner and GM, I feel we need 3 more consecutive rebuilds to amass enough talent to be a competitive organization on the current owner's budget.