Guess Trade Values of Sox Starters

[WestEddy]

28 minutes ago, Quin said:

You're claiming that his Top 100 status from 7 years ago, when Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi were the Top 2 prospects, will reinforce his trade value. Eloy was #14, Kopech was #16 and Soroka was #78. Imagine the hauls we'll get if they all turn it around.

The exchange was - first person:

Quote

He won’t be one of the top starters available at the trade deadline because he doesn’t have name recognition and he hasn’t done this before.

BELIEVE:

Quote

Fedde was a first round pick that was a consensus top 100 MLB prospect. Yes, he struggled in his first MLB stint but obviously the pedigree and talent have always been there.

I read this as, "No, Fedde isn't an unknown entity. He was a first rounder, which gives some name recognition, in addition to other factors Fedde has achieved". To claim that  his first round status is being used to bolster his possible trade value isn't accurate. 

I used to think it was just me. Maybe y'all just do this to ramp up the comments. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

The exchange was - first person:

BELIEVE:

I read this as, "No, Fedde isn't an unknown entity. He was a first rounder, which gives some name recognition, in addition to other factors Fedde has achieved". To claim that  his first round status is being used to bolster his possible trade value isn't accurate. 

I used to think it was just me. Maybe y'all just do this to ramp up the comments. 

Thank you sir. I didn’t have the time or energy to put together this response. I guess anytime anyone says anything even remotely positive about Sox players this season it gets jumped on and spun negatively. It’s tiresome.

[WhiteSox2023]

3 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Thank you sir. I didn’t have the time or energy to put together this response. I guess anytime anyone says anything even remotely positive about Sox players this season it gets jumped on and spun negatively. It’s tiresome.

I never jumped on anybody.  I said that since Fedde has never had this type of success before in the majors, I don’t believe teams will value him as highly as guys like Giolito and Lynn last year who have had success in the past, even though they were having mediocre years.  Draft status doesn’t mean much if a first round pick never has any success in the majors.  Carson Fulmer was a former #8 overall pick and he became a DFA / waiver claim candidate thats bounced from team to team.  I hope Fedde keeps it up and Getz is smart enough to trade him for the best offer available.  But also keep in mind that everyone was calling Crochet an ace after 3 starts.  Crochet’s numbers are still very good if you take a deeper look but it sure didn’t look like he was ever going to struggle.  Fedde will likely have to keep this up until closer to the trade deadline.  I just hope some team comes calling more quickly while he’s at his peak trade value.

Edited April 29 by WhiteSox2023

[WestEddy]

 

 

[T R U]

1 minute ago, WestEddy said:

 

 

Its been 6 starts and he has a 4.02 FIP. Lets not act like some skepticism is just "haters"

[PaleAleSox]

1 minute ago, T R U said:

Its been 6 starts and he has a 4.02 FIP. Lets not act like some skepticism is just "haters"

It's okay to be encouraged by good things, you know. 

[T R U]

1 minute ago, PaleAleSox said:

It's okay to be encouraged by good things, you know. 

Im not discouraged, im just saying there's no need to jump on people for being a hater or trying to make negative spins when its such a small sample size for someone who was awful in their MLB career previously.

I hope he keeps it up, he will return a wonderful package of prospects.

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, T R U said:

Its been 6 starts and he has a 4.02 FIP. Lets not act like some skepticism is just "haters"

Nope. I predict the bidding starts with Baltimore sending Holliday, Basallo and Mayo. 

[WestEddy]

Just now, T R U said:

Im not discouraged, im just saying there's no need to jump on people for being a hater or trying to make negative spins when its such a small sample size for someone who was awful in their MLB career previously.

I hope he keeps it up, he will return a wonderful package of prospects.

I've read that tweet 3 times, and can't find the word "hater". 

[nrockway]

9 minutes ago, T R U said:

Its been 6 starts and he has a 4.02 FIP. Lets not act like some skepticism is just "haters"

That seems like a good thing, right? That's a pretty good FIP that's also pretty close to his ERA which might suggest his ERA isn't an outlier (the point of FIP ostensibly, does the ERA make sense?). Even so, Fangraphs' FIP-derived WAR has Fedde at 33rd (and Crochet a spot below). Do we think Fedde will continue to strike out 10 batters per 9? Probably not but I bet his HR rate goes down too. 

Personally I prefer baseball-reference's WAR calculation for pitchers. It seems more based on what actually happens in a game than however some eggheads weight the relative importance of a strikeout to a groundout to a walk or whatever. 

[T R U]

7 minutes ago, nrockway said:

That seems like a good thing, right? That's a pretty good FIP that's also pretty close to his ERA which might suggest his ERA isn't an outlier (the point of FIP ostensibly, does the ERA make sense?). Even so, Fangraphs' FIP-derived WAR has Fedde at 33rd (and Crochet a spot below). Do we think Fedde will continue to strike out 10 batters per 9? Probably not but I bet his HR rate goes down too. 

Personally I prefer baseball-reference's WAR calculation for pitchers. It seems more based on what actually happens in a game than however some eggheads weight the relative importance of a strikeout to a groundout to a walk or whatever. 

For sure, I wasn't trying to say he's actually been bad. Its just in comparison to "one of the best pitchers in baseball".

[T R U]

21 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I've read that tweet 3 times, and can't find the word "hater". 

Well, comprehension isn't one of your strong suits from what I have seen around here buddy.

[southsider2k5]

30 minutes ago, T R U said:

Its been 6 starts and he has a 4.02 FIP. Lets not act like some skepticism is just "haters"

You do realize even a season putting up a 4 ERA while putting up a starters load of innings is a big win for $15 million over 2 years and would definitely garner a return on the trade market.

[T R U]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

You do realize even a season putting up a 4 ERA while putting up a starters load of innings is a big win for $15 million over 2 years and would definitely garner a return on the trade market.

Yes I do realize this. And again, I wasn't trying to imply he hasn't been good.

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, T R U said:

Yes I do realize this. And again, I wasn't trying to imply he hasn't been good.

He's been great.  Even with regression, he could still be good.

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, T R U said:

Well, comprehension isn't one of your strong suits from what I have seen around here buddy.

It actually is. 

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

He's been great.  Even with regression, he could still be good.

Unlike the discussions on whether to trade Cease during the offseason or the trade deadline, do we all agree that there is probably zero reason to not trade Fedde by this year’s trade deadline?

Edited April 30 by WhiteSox2023

[southsider2k5]

Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

Unlike the decision to trade Cease during the offseason or the trade deadline, do we all agree that there is probably zero reason to not trade Fedde by this year’s trade deadline?

Assuming he has a decent trade value (somewhere in the area of a top 100-150 lead piece) I would deal him in a heartbeat.

[DoUEvenShift]

1 hour ago, T R U said:

Well, comprehension isn't one of your strong suits from what I have seen around here buddy.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

With the exception of Soroka, I’d say this initial post from early April is tracking quite well! Should be interesting to see what happens over the next 6-8 weeks as the calendar flips to June this weekend.

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

With the exception of Soroka, I’d say this initial post from early April is tracking quite well! Should be interesting to see what happens over the next 6-8 weeks as the calendar flips to June this weekend.

I don’t see anyone trading for Crochet this deadline.  Thisq offseason could be a different story, but really hope they explore an extension before considering a trade.

I think Fedde is worth a top 150 (50 FV) prospect, so you’re on the money there.  Flexen might return a lottery ticket and Clevinger is probably worthless.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t see anyone trading for Crochet this deadline.  Thisq offseason could be a different story, but really hope they explore an extension before considering a trade.

I think Fedde is worth a top 150 (50 FV) prospect, so you’re on the money there.  Flexen might return a lottery ticket and Clevinger is probably worthless.

Why wouldn’t anyone be interested in Crochet at the deadline? I go back and forth on this but the guy is getting stronger as the season progresses. I see no reason to severely limit him if that’s the case. He could easily pitch 130-140 innings this season. Would make for one hell of an opener for a playoff team in October.

[Rusty_Kuntz]

I don't think Crochet has much value because he's going to run out of innings. He's pitched 73 total innings over the previous 4 years, and by the deadline if he keeps this up he'd be well over 100 for this year. 

If that wasn't the case he'd get probably a low top 100 guy and another young guy. He will have high value this offseason. 

My initial reaction was they could get something like a top 200-250 guy for Fedde. I'd move that to a better prospect now, something like 150. 

Hard to imagine anything for Flexen. If he gets hot maybe a total flier. 

Edited May 29 by Rusty_Kuntz

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

12 minutes ago, Rusty_Kuntz said:

I don't think Crochet has much value because he's going to run out of innings. He's pitched 73 total innings over the previous 4 years, and by the deadline if he keeps this up he'd be well over 100 for this year. 

If that wasn't the case he'd get probably a low top 100 guy and another young guy. He will have high value this offseason. 

My initial reaction was they could get something like a top 200-250 guy for Fedde. I'd move that to a better prospect now, something like 150. 

Hard to imagine anything for Flexen. If he gets hot maybe a total flier. 

With Crochet, I think we need to see how the next month goes. If he pitches in June like he did in May, I think he will have a ton of value at the deadline because it shows his performance is not slowing even as innings accumulate. I’d rather have Crochet than Cease starting game 1 of the playoffs if they started tomorrow.

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Why wouldn’t anyone be interested in Crochet at the deadline? I go back and forth on this but the guy is getting stronger as the season progresses. I see no reason to severely limit him if that’s the case. He could easily pitch 130-140 innings this season. Would make for one hell of an opener for a playoff team in October.

Getting stronger as the season progresses?  It’s not even June.  Let’s see how he is fairing come mid July when he hits 100 innings.  He will no doubt wear down at some point and no contender is going to pay a massive price to acquire a guy he probably can’t count on down the stretch and into October.  Teams don’t give up hauls for potential playoff openers.