Guess Trade Values of Sox Starters

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I dont think Iriarte is a lotto ticket. According to one service (it may have been Baseball Prospectus not sure I don't remember), he was a Top 100 prospect.

And "Jerry won't let me sign him" is a perfectly good reason by itself to trade the player. If you can't keep him and we know we can't, it's best to sell high and this is certainly a very high point. 

 

But still a 25% discount off what he’s worth in October, having pitched as far as he can go in 2024 without injury…

[Quin]

9 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I dont think Iriarte is a lotto ticket. According to one service (it may have been Baseball Prospectus not sure I don't remember), he was a Top 100 prospect.

And "Jerry won't let me sign him" is a perfectly good reason by itself to trade the player. If you can't keep him and we know we can't, it's best to sell high and this is certainly a very high point. 

 

Lotto ticket was the wrong term for him. Probably a #3 starter or bullpen guy.

Regardless, when you supposedly control the market - I'm less than starstruck with that.

[WestEddy]

3 minutes ago, Quin said:

A normal team would agree with this.

The Sox? 

"Oh, we're not quite there yet. Thorpe's hitting arbitration, need to trade him."

They already have their entire 2027-2030 rotation in the system that includes a couple TOR studs. If they can't assemble the offensive side of a competitor with the trades of Crochet, Robert and Fedde, along with 3 more drafts where they're picking top 10, that would be extraordinary. Even for the White Sox. 

[4OCS]

3 hours ago, Falstaff said:

I am all for the Sox to extend Crochet but if it turns out the Sox do trade him they better get a haul. At least the minors have some arms on the way.

2026 Starters:

Thorpe

Cannon

Grant Taylor

Noah Schultz

Mason Adams

Bullpen :, Leasure, Nastrini,  Ky Bush, Jake Eder, Iriarte

Dude has made four starts at low A and one at rookie ball and you have him pegged for the ‘26 rotation? 🤔

[4OCS]

6 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

They already have their entire 2027-2030 rotation in the system that includes a couple TOR studs.

They do??

[Quin]

6 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

They already have their entire 2027-2030 rotation in the system that includes a couple TOR studs. If they can't assemble the offensive side of a competitor with the trades of Crochet, Robert and Fedde, along with 3 more drafts where they're picking top 10, that would be extraordinary. Even for the White Sox. 

I mean, picking #10 is technically top 10, but those anti-tanking rules are hard on them.

And TOR guys are prospects until they aren't, lest we forget our current closer, Giolito and Cease's peaks never overlapping, ReyLo needing to leave the org to ascend to becoming his best self as a starter, Rodon's injuries, etc.

As for offense, well, we know how that went.

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

They already have their entire 2027-2030 rotation in the system that includes a couple TOR studs. If they can't assemble the offensive side of a competitor with the trades of Crochet, Robert and Fedde, along with 3 more drafts where they're picking top 10, that would be extraordinary. Even for the White Sox. 

#3 pick of Rodon, trades for Sale Q Eaton and Frazier/Robertson.  Top 5 picks for Madrigal and Vaughn.  Not to mention Anderson Collins Burger Fulmer.

Foundation today isn’t going to be nearly as strong as 2017-19 with Robert’s current value still clearly depressed…and Crochet at 75% of what he’s actually worth due to durability concerns.

Edited Monday at 04:19 PM by caulfield12

[WestEddy]

1 minute ago, 4OCS said:

They do??

You don't think they can develop 5 reliable starters out of Schultz, Thorpe, Cannon, Bush, Adams, Schweitzer, Keener, Gordon, Taylor, Martin, Eder, Gowens, Carela, McDaniel, Batista, Peppers and Burke? In the next 3-6 years?

[GreenSox]

13 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

They already have their entire 2027-2030 rotation in the system that includes a couple TOR studs. If they can't assemble the offensive side of a competitor with the trades of Crochet, Robert and Fedde, along with 3 more drafts where they're picking top 10, that would be extraordinary. Even for the White Sox. 

Well, a  system needs probably 12 good starting prospects to be confident that they can fill out the rotation when they hit the majors.

I just read a tweet that the White Sox have more OPS 100+ hitters in the lineup (100 ABs minimum) than the Yankees.  Obviously, the Yankees have 2 of the top 4 hitters in baseball as well.  But if you look around at these rosters of the various 2nd tier contenders, most of them have at least 1/2 a lineup below .700 OPS.  Now they each have a couple of great hitters.
Things change and this year may be an anomaly on that sort of thing, but if Robert comes back to form and hits like a beast, how far away  are they? Maybe a couple of great hitters, a few average players, and some defense and a competent manager.  Which I guess is a long way.

 

[4OCS]

1 minute ago, WestEddy said:

You don't think they can develop 5 reliable starters out of Schultz, Thorpe, Cannon, Bush, Adams, Schweitzer, Keener, Gordon, Taylor, Martin, Eder, Gowens, Carela, McDaniel, Batista, Peppers and Burke? In the next 3-6 years?

You said an entire rotation including a couple TOR studs. Whether they can get five reliable starters out of that I’m not so sure either

[WestEddy]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

#3 pick of Rodon, trades for Sale Q Eaton and Frazier/Robertson.  Top 5 picks for Madrigal and Vaughn.  Not to mention Anderson Collins Burger Fulmer.

Foundation today isn’t going to be nearly as strong as 2017-19 with Robert’s current value still clearly depressed…and Crochet at 75% of what he’s actually worth due to durability concerns.

The 2016+ rebuild was a disaster, yes. Teams do rebuild from close to nothing. I believe Getz > Hahn/KW. Shirley > Hostetler. We now seem to have a system that seems able to develop pitching. While the hitting prospects aren't spewing out, our ability to develop has been recognized at least a few years back. We can certainly get better. 

If you honestly believe that the White Sox can't draft and develop, at this point, that Getz will flub every single trade, JR will launch good players to stay low-cost, and that nobody currently in our minor league system are viable major leaguers, why do you even pay attention? 

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, 4OCS said:

You said an entire rotation including a couple TOR studs. Whether they can get five reliable starters out of that I’m not so sure either

And I still believe that. Unless some tragedy occurs, Schultz and Taylor look real. That's about 16-17 guys who have dominated their leagues at points this season. A rotation is 5 guys. 

[baseball_gal_aly]

2 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

If you honestly believe that the White Sox can't draft and develop, at this point, that Getz will flub every single trade, JR will launch good players to stay low-cost, and that nobody currently in our minor league system are viable major leaguers, why do you even pay attention? 

Because sports fandom is a damn addiction. You can't turn away, even though you want to. I said I was going to quit this year but here I am. 

[WestEddy]

8 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Well, a  system needs probably 12 good starting prospects to be confident that they can fill out the rotation when they hit the majors.

I just read a tweet that the White Sox have more OPS 100+ hitters in the lineup (100 ABs minimum) than the Yankees.  Obviously, the Yankees have 2 of the top 4 hitters in baseball as well.  But if you look around at these rosters of the various 2nd tier contenders, most of them have at least 1/2 a lineup below .700 OPS.  Now they each have a couple of great hitters.
Things change and this year may be an anomaly on that sort of thing, but if Robert comes back to form and hits like a beast, how far away  are they? Maybe a couple of great hitters, a few average players, and some defense and a competent manager.  Which I guess is a long way.

 

Fangraphs has us down for 6 45+FV starting prospects in our top 10 prospects this spring. That doesn't even take into account the advancement of guys like Adams, Schweitzer and Grant Taylor. 

I don't think we're really that far away. 

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Because sports fandom is a damn addiction. You can't turn away, even though you want to. I said I was going to quit this year but here I am. 

My main focus was to point out the layers of failure people are suggesting. Yes, the 2016+ Hahn/KW rebuild was abysmal. I know what the goal is, but they made the playoffs twice. 

There was no previous focus on development of pitching or hitting, there was no focus on spreading out talent in the international arena, no plan for developing the high schoolers they punted on the early rounds to sign in late rounds. That's why the original rebuild "failed". There was nothing behind the main 10 or so guys. 

[southsider2k5]

40 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

They already have their entire 2027-2030 rotation in the system that includes a couple TOR studs. If they can't assemble the offensive side of a competitor with the trades of Crochet, Robert and Fedde, along with 3 more drafts where they're picking top 10, that would be extraordinary. Even for the White Sox. 

Look, this could be the crazy time where it actually does happen, but every single time I can recall saying "we should be fine with what we have coming" it has ended up being 100% dead wrong.  For whatever reason, it just doesn't happen like this in real life.  I remember looking at Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, Alec Hanson, Dane Dunning, Carson Fulmer, Ian Hamilton, Zach Burdi, and Dylan Cease the same way.

[baseball_gal_aly]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Look, this could be the crazy time where it actually does happen, but every single time I can recall saying "we should be fine with what we have coming" it has ended up being 100% dead wrong.  For whatever reason, it just doesn't happen like this in real life.  I remember looking at Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, Alec Hanson, Dane Dunning, Carson Fulmer, Ian Hamilton, Zach Burdi, and Dylan Cease the same way.

Lopez/Giolito/Kopech/Cease all had higher ceilings as prospects than the majority of the guys they have now. 

[Quin]

9 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

My main focus was to point out the layers of failure people are suggesting. Yes, the 2016+ Hahn/KW rebuild was abysmal. I know what the goal is, but they made the playoffs twice. 

There was no previous focus on development of pitching or hitting, there was no focus on spreading out talent in the international arena, no plan for developing the high schoolers they punted on the early rounds to sign in late rounds. That's why the original rebuild "failed". There was nothing behind the main 10 or so guys. 

I have yet to see a development plan take place for hitting, so really, until proven otherwise, they don't have one.

[Quin]

1 minute ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Lopez/Giolito/Kopech/Cease all had higher ceilings as prospects than the majority of the guys they have now. 

s%*#, Hansen was the ultimate boom-bust guy.

[hi8is]

9 minutes ago, Quin said:

s%*#, Hansen was the ultimate boom-bust guy.

I wanted to see that grade A pitch face in Chicago more than anything 

[southsider2k5]

15 minutes ago, Quin said:

I have yet to see a development plan take place for hitting, so really, until proven otherwise, they don't have one.

Yeah, this is what gives me pause.  We are so far behind on the position player side right now, and even if we trade them in here like we did Moncada, Robert, and Eloy, what happens when they have their struggles?  Are we now somehow equipped for them?  Because I don't see it.

[WestEddy]

16 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Look, this could be the crazy time where it actually does happen, but every single time I can recall saying "we should be fine with what we have coming" it has ended up being 100% dead wrong.  For whatever reason, it just doesn't happen like this in real life.  I remember looking at Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, Alec Hanson, Dane Dunning, Carson Fulmer, Ian Hamilton, Zach Burdi, and Dylan Cease the same way.

I don't believe they had the pitching development in place they do now. 

This all was me responding to a "We'll trade Drew Thorpe in three years" comment. My reasoning in bringing up the group of starting pitching prospects was to illustrate that I believe we could have a full rotation, and a team moving towards competitiveness by that time, where they wouldn't be considering trading Thorpe. 

[Dick Allen]

7 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I don't believe they had the pitching development in place they do now. 

This all was me responding to a "We'll trade Drew Thorpe in three years" comment. My reasoning in bringing up the group of starting pitching prospects was to illustrate that I believe we could have a full rotation, and a team moving towards competitiveness by that time, where they wouldn't be considering trading Thorpe. 

Pitchers get hurt. Some of these guys will bust. Hopefully most of them develop into guys that help you win. It would be nice to tune into a games again and expect victory on a regular basis.

[Snopek]

48 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Lopez/Giolito/Kopech/Cease all had higher ceilings as prospects than the majority of the guys they have now. 

This is emblematic of the top heavy/no depth system the Sox had at the time. They basically needed to hit on all of the higher ranked prospects, both on the pitching and hitting side, because there was nothing else.

Currently, the hitting side still seems like a bit of a mess, but I at least feel a little better about the development and depth on the pitching side. You obviously want high ceiling guys, but at least it's not the extreme quality over quantity approach from the last rebuild.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

I don't believe they had the pitching development in place they do now. 

This all was me responding to a "We'll trade Drew Thorpe in three years" comment. My reasoning in bringing up the group of starting pitching prospects was to illustrate that I believe we could have a full rotation, and a team moving towards competitiveness by that time, where they wouldn't be considering trading Thorpe. 

We have actually pumped out pitching on a fairly regular basis, but it also has never been on the success rate at which you would need to be at to say that all of our pitching can come from this system from 27-30.