Guess Trade Values of Sox Starters

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

With Crochet, I think we need to see how the next month goes. If he pitches in June like he did in May, I think he will have a ton of value at the deadline because it shows his performance is not slowing even as innings accumulate. I’d rather have Crochet than Cease starting game 1 of the playoffs if they started tomorrow.

But they don’t start tomorrow so not sure why that is relevant.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Getting stronger as the season progresses?  It’s not even June.  Let’s see how he is fairing come mid July when he hits 100 innings.  He will no doubt wear down at some point and no contender is going to pay a massive price to acquire a guy he probably can’t count on down the stretch and into October.  Teams don’t give up hauls for potential playoff openers.

Season is 35% complete and he pitched better in May than the first 5 weeks of the season. Everyone is waiting for him to wear down but I see no signs of it. If anything, he’s getting STRONGER 💪

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Season is 35% complete and he pitched better in May than the first 5 weeks of the season. Everyone is waiting for him to wear down but I see no signs of it. If anything, he’s getting STRONGER 💪

Everyone is waiting for him to wear down because it will eventually happen.  His arm is simply not conditioned to take on 150+ innings.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Everyone is waiting for him to wear down because it will eventually happen.  His arm is simply not conditioned to take on 150+ innings.

Let me know when it happens I guess 🤷‍♂️ 

[Rusty_Kuntz]

22 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

With Crochet, I think we need to see how the next month goes. If he pitches in June like he did in May, I think he will have a ton of value at the deadline because it shows his performance is not slowing even as innings accumulate. I’d rather have Crochet than Cease starting game 1 of the playoffs if they started tomorrow.

Are you taking the risk on a guy with his record to make a stretch and playoff run if you are a GM looking for a top starting pitcher? A guy who has already surpassed his total career innings by 150%, and you're asking him to throw another 60+ or so? 

I'm not. 

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Let me know when it happens I guess 🤷‍♂️ 

If you’re going to be condescending, at least explain your hypothetical science that allows him to go from pitching a career high 51 innings in 2021 to 150 innings or more this year.  And no, him improving as a starter in his second month ever at being one (since college) doesn’t count.

[Kyyle23]

Weird to be so absurdly confident in Crochet’s ability to stay healthy and strong through this season when he has shown anything but that ability 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If you’re going to be condescending, at least explain your hypothetical science that allows him to go from pitching a career high 51 innings in 2021 to 150 innings or more this year.  And no, him improving as a starter in his second month ever at being one (since college) doesn’t count.

You made a definitive statement that he’s absolutely going to wear down. You don’t know that, I don’t know that. Everyone has been speaking in absolutes about his innings limit, durability, etc since he was announced as the opening day starter. He’s already proven most wrong and yet there will continue to be doubters until there aren’t 🤷‍♂️ 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

23 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Weird to be so absurdly confident in Crochet’s ability to stay healthy and strong through this season when he has shown anything but that ability 

I’m not absurdly confident but I’m also not absurdly negative. There’s a difference.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

42 minutes ago, Rusty_Kuntz said:

Are you taking the risk on a guy with his record to make a stretch and playoff run if you are a GM looking for a top starting pitcher? A guy who has already surpassed his total career innings by 150%, and you're asking him to throw another 60+ or so? 

I'm not. 

It’s a calculated risk. Pay less of a premium for a guy like crochet because the risk is there or pay a premium for a guy like Luzardo who isn’t even as good imo. I don’t think that’s an easy decision for a GM.

[Kyyle23]

19 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m not absurdly confident but I’m also not absurdly negative. There’s a difference.

Recognizing that the guy is injury prone and has been for his entire career isn’t absurdly negative, it’s admitting the truth.  You stating that he is getting stronger this season is absurdly confident and probably setting yourself up for quite a disappointment, but you go ahead and just keep tellin us whatever 👍

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Recognizing that the guy is injury prone and has been for his entire career isn’t absurdly negative, it’s admitting the truth.  You stating that he is getting stronger this season is absurdly confident and probably setting yourself up for quite a disappointment, but you go ahead and just keep tellin us whatever 👍

Has he not been stronger of late? I’m just stating the facts. I never said it would continue the rest of the season. It might, it might not. Posters here have imposed an innings limit for Crochet this season of anywhere from 50-110 innings. Where are they getting this information because I haven’t seen anything reported by the team or Crochet about that. Regardless, they keep sayin it 👍

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You made a definitive statement that he’s absolutely going to wear down. You don’t know that, I don’t know that. Everyone has been speaking in absolutes about his innings limit, durability, etc since he was announced as the opening day starter. He’s already proven most wrong and yet there will continue to be doubters until there aren’t 🤷‍♂️ 

I’m making a definite statement based on how the human body works.  I have no idea when he will finally start slowing down, but it will almost certainly be well before the end of the season if they keep using him like they are.  If you disagree, provide some examples of guys who have been converted to a starter with this level of an innings increase and without eventually wearing down.

And not sure who he has proven wrong.  Most of us didn’t expect his arm to implode by the end of May, even if some of us felt it was a possibility given his track record of health.

[WhiteSox2023]

6 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Weird to be so absurdly confident in Crochet’s ability to stay healthy and strong through this season when he has shown anything but that ability 

That same poster has been hyping all of the great trade value that Getz has acquired since the offseason so he has to stick with it at this point.  The fact is, even with the returns from potential Robert, Crochet, Fedde, Kopech, Wilson, and Pham trades, this team will still be far away from competing.  You have to assume around half of the prospects they acquire in these trades will be busts anyways and we are also banking on Getz to target the right young players (Mena for Fletcher anyone?).

Edited May 29 by WhiteSox2023

[GreenSox]

Crochet is young and healthy.  Reynaldo hasn't had a starter's load since 2019; the Giants sent career reliever Hicks to a full go as starter.

A lot of people didn't think Crochet could make it at all as a starter.  I'm willing to see how it goes.

That said, don't trade Crochet until the winter.  Trade him now and teams will have the exact questions that people are raising here about his endurance.  If he gets a season under his belt, the questions are quelled.

That will put him in the exact same contract/control position that Cease was last winter; but hopefully coming off a dominant year.  

Edited May 29 by GreenSox

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Crochet is young and healthy.  Reynaldo hasn't had a starter's load since 2019; the Giants sent career reliever Hicks to a full go as starter.

A lot of people didn't think Crochet could make it at all as a starter.  I'm willing to see how it goes.

That said, don't trade Crochet until the winter.  Trade him now and teams will have the exact questions that people are raising here about his endurance.  If he gets a season under his belt, the questions are quelled.

That will put him in the exact same contract/control position that Cease was last winter; but hopefully coming off a dominant year.  

if you are talking about "load", Crochet hasn't had a starters load since... well ever.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Crochet is young and healthy.  Reynaldo hasn't had a starter's load since 2019; the Giants sent career reliever Hicks to a full go as starter.

A lot of people didn't think Crochet could make it at all as a starter.  I'm willing to see how it goes.

That said, don't trade Crochet until the winter.  Trade him now and teams will have the exact questions that people are raising here about his endurance.  If he gets a season under his belt, the questions are quelled.

That will put him in the exact same contract/control position that Cease was last winter; but hopefully coming off a dominant year.  

Cole Ragans has held up so far as a starter after two previous TJ surgeries...which used to be a death sentence for a starting pitcher, especially one relying on high velo.

[WestEddy]

39 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Crochet is young and healthy.  Reynaldo hasn't had a starter's load since 2019; the Giants sent career reliever Hicks to a full go as starter.

A lot of people didn't think Crochet could make it at all as a starter.  I'm willing to see how it goes.

That said, don't trade Crochet until the winter.  Trade him now and teams will have the exact questions that people are raising here about his endurance.  If he gets a season under his belt, the questions are quelled.

That will put him in the exact same contract/control position that Cease was last winter; but hopefully coming off a dominant year.  

My thinking is that the worst the Sox would do to Crochet is push him to 110-120+ innings this year, and he'd be fine for it. The problem would come when he hits a wall next year and has to push through lowered velocity and results, thus, setting him up as a 2026 TDL candidate. 

[4OCS]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m making a definite statement based on how the human body works.  I have no idea when he will finally start slowing down,

Then it’s not a definite statement

[oldsox]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

My thinking is that the worst the Sox would do to Crochet is push him to 110-120+ innings this year, and he'd be fine for it. The problem would come when he hits a wall next year and has to push through lowered velocity and results, thus, setting him up as a 2026 TDL candidate. 

I'm glad you guys didn't train Secretariat 53 years ago. Crochet is a stud.

[WestEddy]

7 minutes ago, oldsox said:

I'm glad you guys didn't train Secretariat 53 years ago. Crochet is a stud.

I think Crochet is a stud, too, and have been one of the more bullish on his conversion to starter. I think this is probably the first time in his life he's been fully healthy, not half-recovered from something the season before.

But I do think it's a possibility that he does run into a fatigue period next season. Guys like Greg Maddux have talked about the fatigue that sets in, just from the extra 2-3 weeks of playoffs every year. 

[GreenSox]

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

My thinking is that the worst the Sox would do to Crochet is push him to 110-120+ innings this year, and he'd be fine for it. The problem would come when he hits a wall next year and has to push through lowered velocity and results, thus, setting him up as a 2026 TDL candidate. 

The priority, I would think, is maximizing trade value (if they have no intention of extending him).  100 innings at or near his current performance probably does that for the winter.  If they pitch him into next season and he hits the wall, as you suggest, they they are left holding the bag.

[oldsox]

2 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I think Crochet is a stud, too, and have been one of the more bullish on his conversion to starter. I think this is probably the first time in his life he's been fully healthy, not half-recovered from something the season before.

But I do think it's a possibility that he does run into a fatigue period next season. Guys like Greg Maddux have talked about the fatigue that sets in, just from the extra 2-3 weeks of playoffs every year. 

Back in 1973 there were folks who thought Secretariat should be held out of the Belmont.

[caulfield12]

37 minutes ago, oldsox said:

I'm glad you guys didn't train Secretariat 53 years ago. Crochet is a stud.

The White Sox are more of a Seabiscuit organization anyway.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

42 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

The priority, I would think, is maximizing trade value (if they have no intention of extending him).  100 innings at or near his current performance probably does that for the winter.  If they pitch him into next season and he hits the wall, as you suggest, they they are left holding the bag.

Crochet is at 63.2 IP. He’s averaging over 5 innings per start. Assuming ~5 innings per start, he’s at 100 innings in the year after 7 more starts. That’s basically the second week in July. Are the Sox going to completely shut him down for the last 2.5 months of the season? I haven’t heard them say anything like this.