JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 44 minutes ago, bighurt574 said: Bingo. Honestly not seeing how we build a playoff quality line up in the next five years. Even if we go heavy on position players in the next several drafts, by the time they get up to MLB and contribute, that’s 5+ years off. We’d otherwise need a big name free agent or two to build around, and Colson to really pan out, but we all know they’re not going to spend the money on that. You think if the Sox draft Jac next month it’s going to take 5+ years for him to be an MLB contributor? Why? And you don’t need a lineup full of stars. Cleveland’s lineup is built around Jose Ramirez and 2018 5th round pick Steven Kwan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: You think if the Sox draft Jac next month it’s going to take 5+ years for him to be an MLB contributor? Why? And you don’t need a lineup full of stars. Cleveland’s lineup is built around Jose Ramirez and 2018 5th round pick Steven Kwan. The Sox can’t even draft and develop guys like Kwan, much less a Ramirez. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiddleCoastBias Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: You think if the Sox draft Jac next month it’s going to take 5+ years for him to be an MLB contributor? Why? And you don’t need a lineup full of stars. Cleveland’s lineup is built around Jose Ramirez and 2018 5th round pick Steven Kwan. I feel like your Cleveland example makes the opposite point, or at least arrives at the same point from another angle - Cleveland is successful because they can develop random jamokes into real ballplayers and we can't. We depend on high-end pedigree, basically hitters who can succeed DESPITE our efforts to develop them. Seeing Cleveland's success without a whole bunch of stars makes what the Sox have done even MORE disheartening and bleak looking forward. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 1 minute ago, MiddleCoastBias said: I feel like your Cleveland example makes the opposite point, or at least arrives at the same point from another angle - Cleveland is successful because they can develop random jamokes into real ballplayers and we can't. We depend on high-end pedigree, basically hitters who can succeed DESPITE our efforts to develop them. Seeing Cleveland's success without a whole bunch of stars makes what the Sox have done even MORE disheartening and bleak looking forward. Yep, it goes back to the you can build a successful baseball franchise a lot of ways, but if you aren't drafting and developing, they will all quickly fall apart, which is what we keep seeing here. They are also willing to give their young players a lot of run to see what they have, while we block ours with guys like Moldy and Nicky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 (edited) 51 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said: I feel like your Cleveland example makes the opposite point, or at least arrives at the same point from another angle - Cleveland is successful because they can develop random jamokes into real ballplayers and we can't. We depend on high-end pedigree, basically hitters who can succeed DESPITE our efforts to develop them. Seeing Cleveland's success without a whole bunch of stars makes what the Sox have done even MORE disheartening and bleak looking forward. Shirley took over as amateur scouting director in September 2019. Sox first round picks since then: Garrett Crochet, Colson Montgomery, Noah Schultz, Jacob Gonzalez. The first guy is #2 in fWAR of all mlb pitchers this season. The next two are T50 prospects in MLB. We will see what these guys become at the big league level but that’s a pretty significant improvement in drafting and development from prior years. Edited June 24 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Shirley took over as amateur scouting director in September 2019. Sox first round picks since then: Garrett Crochet, Colson Montgomery, Noah Schultz, Jacob Gonzalez. The first guy is #2 in fWAR of all mlb pitchers this season. The next two are T50 prospects in MLB. We will see what these guys become at the big league level but that’s a pretty significant improvement in drafting and development from prior years. And to kinda drive home the point that others were making, that is taking 5 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 1 minute ago, Quin said: And to kinda drive home the point that others were making, that is taking 5 years. How so? Crochet was an impact player the same year he was drafted. Only thing that stopped him was injury. Montgomery and Schultz were high schoolers. Despite that, Schultz should be with the Sox next year, 3 years after he was drafted. Jac will be mlb ready by 2026 unless he’s a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 8 minutes ago, Quin said: And to kinda drive home the point that others were making, that is taking 5 years. Say it again for those in the back of the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: How so? Crochet was an impact player the same year he was drafted. Only thing that stopped him was injury. Montgomery and Schultz were high schoolers. Despite that, Schultz should be with the Sox next year, 3 years after he was drafted. Jac will be mlb ready by 2026 unless he’s a bust. Because when people say it'd take 5 years to get stuff going through the draft and you say "Shirley's work started in 2019" and we're just now getting major dividends in 2024, that works out to 5 years and that's just with Crochet. It's not just one player, it's a holistic approach. I'm a big Draft Jac person. If it takes until 2026 for Crochet (hopefully he's still here), Montgomery (if he's up this year), Schultz (next year may be a cup of coffee), Gonzalez (let's see him get through Birmingham), and Jac are all together - that's 7 years. I'll lop off 2019 since Crochet was 2020 - it's still a six-year process. You don't get to magically erase rehab years, because the player had to go through them before being a dominant, MLB starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Cannon is another guy drafted less than two years ago and already pitching for the Sox. He’s one of three players from the 2022 draft class to make it to MLB - Drew Thorpe is one of the others. So where are we getting 5+ years before these college draftees are mlb contributors? I’m not seeing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Just now, Quin said: Because when people say it'd take 5 years to get stuff going through the draft and you say "Shirley's work started in 2019" and we're just now getting major dividends in 2024, that works out to 5 years and that's just with Crochet. It's not just one player, it's a holistic approach. I'm a big Draft Jac person. If it takes until 2026 for Crochet (hopefully he's still here), Montgomery (if he's up this year), Schultz (next year may be a cup of coffee), Gonzalez (let's see him get through Birmingham), and Jac are all together - that's 7 years. I'll lop off 2019 since Crochet was 2020 - it's still a six-year process. You don't get to magically erase rehab years, because the player had to go through them before being a dominant, MLB starter. The discussion was that after we draft a guy it takes 5+ years before they’re mlb contributors. That’s simply not the case, even for a “shitty” draft/development org like the Sox. I fully expect Jac to be a significant mlb contributor by 2026/2027 even if the terrible Sox development team is responsible for his development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: The discussion was that after we draft a guy it takes 5+ years before they’re mlb contributors. That’s simply not the case, even for a “shitty” draft/development org like the Sox. I fully expect Jac to be a significant mlb contributor by 2026/2027 even if the terrible Sox development team is responsible for his development. Then by this logic, the 2016 White Sox were ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 1 minute ago, Quin said: Then by this logic, the 2016 White Sox were ready to go. Simple question. Do you think a draftee like Jac Caglianone won’t be an MLB contributor until 2029 at the earliest? That’s 5+ years from next months draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 4 minutes ago, Quin said: Because when people say it'd take 5 years to get stuff going through the draft and you say "Shirley's work started in 2019" and we're just now getting major dividends in 2024, that works out to 5 years and that's just with Crochet. It's not just one player, it's a holistic approach. I'm a big Draft Jac person. If it takes until 2026 for Crochet (hopefully he's still here), Montgomery (if he's up this year), Schultz (next year may be a cup of coffee), Gonzalez (let's see him get through Birmingham), and Jac are all together - that's 7 years. I'll lop off 2019 since Crochet was 2020 - it's still a six-year process. You don't get to magically erase rehab years, because the player had to go through them before being a dominant, MLB starter. And even more so, if you aren't willing to add big names in free agency, you need way more than one player a year to make it. You need to be like Cleveland and be able to hit it big in the draft, intentionally, and to acquire guys in the trade market for the guys you know aren't resigning here because you won't pay them. Otherwise a guy like Crochet is going to be gone before our 2024 draft pick makes an impact, no matter who it is. If you want to win in modern baseball you have to be able to quickly accumulate talent into a small window of contention if you aren't going to spend large contracts to keep or acquire players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 4 minutes ago, Quin said: Then by this logic, the 2016 White Sox were ready to go. Not to mention pointing at a guy like Crochet as a success story should have an asterisks next to it. It took into his 4th MLB season before he lived up to his potential, which is exactly the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: And even more so, if you aren't willing to add big names in free agency, you need way more than one player a year to make it. You need to be like Cleveland and be able to hit it big in the draft, intentionally, and to acquire guys in the trade market for the guys you know aren't resigning here because you won't pay them. Otherwise a guy like Crochet is going to be gone before our 2024 draft pick makes an impact, no matter who it is. If you want to win in modern baseball you have to be able to quickly accumulate talent into a small window of contention if you aren't going to spend large contracts to keep or acquire players. I agree with this and that’s why I think the Sox will draft college guys in the first round the next few years. I don’t think they want to wait 5+ years for these guys to contribute. If they draft a guy like Jac, he’s with the Sox in 2026 two years after he was drafted like Andrew Vaughn. Let’s hope Jac turns out better than Vaughn but that’s the type of timeline I think we should reasonably expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Not to mention pointing at a guy like Crochet as a success story should have an asterisks next to it. It took into his 4th MLB season before he lived up to his potential, which is exactly the point. Dude started a playoff game a few months after he was drafted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Simple question. Do you think a draftee like Jac Caglianone won’t be an MLB contributor until 2029 at the earliest? That’s 5+ years from next months draft. No, I think he'd be ready to go by 2026. SImple question: Do you not understand that developmental timelines and contracts need to lineup? That's the entire reason Crochet is being discussed as a trade piece, because he'd be gone by Jac's sophomore season. Robert has more control and we're discussing shipping him out. What happens if Montgomery doesn't solve things in AAA? You're now praying that Gonzalez is gonna come through. Schultz is still building innings. We're banking on him being ready to go full steam ahead in 2026? Crochets last year of team control. This is assuming Ramos avoids a sophomore slump, Quero reaches the majors at age 23 as a catcher both and Korey Lee pan out, Thorpe and Cannon prove that they're more indicative of their better starts than their worse starts. And we've just seen a bunch of prospects that were on the same timelines bust because this same medical staff couldn't keep guys healthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Dude started a playoff game a few months after he was drafted lol He pitched 2/3 of an innings of relief, strained his arm and then threw out the bullpen 2021. Then his arm snapped after he aced Ohtani in spring training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Like, I'm not even arguing that Mike Shirley can get the right players in. But their timetables have to all line up, and barring absolute historic drafts, that's going to be a multi-year process, even considering guys already in the system. Then you have to convince JR to pay up for Crochet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 (edited) 20 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Dude started a playoff game a few months after he was drafted lol He came into that game out of the bullpen and tossed .2 innings FWIW. Edited June 24 by Bob Sacamano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 15 minutes ago, Quin said: No, I think he'd be ready to go by 2026. SImple question: Do you not understand that developmental timelines and contracts need to lineup? That's the entire reason Crochet is being discussed as a trade piece, because he'd be gone by Jac's sophomore season. Robert has more control and we're discussing shipping him out. What happens if Montgomery doesn't solve things in AAA? You're now praying that Gonzalez is gonna come through. Schultz is still building innings. We're banking on him being ready to go full steam ahead in 2026? Crochets last year of team control. This is assuming Ramos avoids a sophomore slump, Quero reaches the majors at age 23 as a catcher both and Korey Lee pan out, Thorpe and Cannon prove that they're more indicative of their better starts than their worse starts. And we've just seen a bunch of prospects that were on the same timelines bust because this same medical staff couldn't keep guys healthy. I understand that and if all those guys suck the Sox will be in perpetual rebuild mode for years no matter what. It’s certainly possible. I don’t see it as the most likely outcome but apparently many do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 19 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: I agree with this and that’s why I think the Sox will draft college guys in the first round the next few years. I don’t think they want to wait 5+ years for these guys to contribute. If they draft a guy like Jac, he’s with the Sox in 2026 two years after he was drafted like Andrew Vaughn. Let’s hope Jac turns out better than Vaughn but that’s the type of timeline I think we should reasonably expect. And Andrew Vaughn still isn't playoff team good. Being on the team, vs being a part of a playoff caliber roster are two different things. Vaughn is still five years post draft, and the Sox still have a hole at 1b. Some of these guys will absolutely fail. Others will take years to live up to the hype. That's why talent accumulation is so important, and getting one basic major leaguer isn't moving the needle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 15 minutes ago, Quin said: He pitched 2/3 of an innings of relief, strained his arm and then threw out the bullpen 2021. Then his arm snapped after he aced Ohtani in spring training. Which again is the point. Even the right pick can have set backs and failures, which is why the entire system is so important, and not just pointing to one guy who is NOW living up to his potential after so many years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 22 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Dude started a playoff game a few months after he was drafted lol He didn't start one, he relieved in one and hurt himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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