nrockway Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 (edited) 8 hours ago, Snopek said: Yeah you tell em! An advanced stat that provides additional context on the performance of a player is totally for NERDS! It depends. FIP seems mostly worthless to me, it doesn't really tell you anything that looking at "k/9, bb/9, hr/9" doesn't already, it just attaches arbitrary weights to certain outcomes. Its predictive value is basically useless as far as I can tell. Ostensibly because its prior assumptions are wrong or otherwise debatable, the main one being that pitchers have no control over balls in play. But we know that they do, two and four seam fastballs generally result in different types of balls in play. Consequently, they also result in different strikeout rates and so FIP rewards strikeout pitchers and punishes groundballers. This one thing completely invalidates FIP and I'd also quibble with how they assign the weights '13', '2', and '3'. it seems pretty arbitrary. I still like looking at it because it kind of tells you something interesting, just like OPS does. You can look at a guy's OPS, whether it's .600 or .800 or 1.150 and get a pretty good idea of how good a hitter he is. A good measuring stick. However, I'm not sure that FIP is actually more useful as a measuring stick than straight up ERA. We might assume Shota Imanaga is not going to finish the season with a 0.96 ERA. "well nrockway, his FIP is 2.27, so obviously his ERA is going to increase." Yeah, except it might be reasonable to assume it's going to increase well higher than 2.27 because the inputs into his FIP don't really tell you what kind of pitcher he is. Eight years pitching in Japan might paint a better picture, where he posted a 3.18 ERA and had much worse 'peripheral' (K/BB/HR) stats than he's demonstrated in the MLB. In this way, we see that the 'predictive' stat FIP doesn't accurately assess what kind of pitcher Imanaga is. So what's the point of looking at his FIP then? What does it tell me? I think common sense and standard stats are probably better than FIP specifically and most other advanced stats. I'm skeptical of most "advanced" stats, bWAR seems to be the only one that stands up to scrutiny and even that has many debatable components. I'm even more skeptical of the ones that claim to predict things which seems to be how Fangraphs is staying in business. The new Statcast measurements are genuinely interesting. This is new data that didn't exist before, not merely a manipulation of box score statistics. However, the analysis of them is probably pretty bad for now. Maybe a few MLB teams are doing interesting things with the data, but journalists are not and that's all I can see. Edited May 17 by nrockway 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beautox Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 I think if he continues this trend we could see two prospects coming back for him in the back half of the 100 (80+ range) between this year and next by the time he's traded he'll be owed 11.5m roughly; fits the budget for a lot of small market contenders like Milwaukee and Cleveland. Would love to see the Sox grab the likes of Jaison Chourio or Ralphy Velazquez from Cleveland for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 (edited) 14 hours ago, 2Deep said: How about we keep Fedde and then sign him to a longer deal after next year and start to build a F'ing team to compete. Novel concept for this bum ass owner You and I think the same way. We are in the minority on this site. Seems to me our fans are in love with the unknown. They want to flip just about everybody and guess what, if that happens, we win 40-50 games again next season with no guarantee the prospects we acquire will succeed. Can't believe the smart fans on here are falling for the tank again. Maybe the Sox can just tank from now through eternity and ultimately one of the 5 year tank processes will work. Edited May 17 by greg775 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 (edited) 8 hours ago, T R U said: Go look at his post history. He would comment on a post and then end it with like “well this weather is beautiful I think I’ll drop the top on the ol wrangler and take a drive” it was hilariously awkward. Wow, I thought you were joking. This is some strange stuff. Dude absolutely loves Jeeps. Even if the Sox were actually good, I’m pretty sure he’d prefer to cruise in his Jeep at night over watching a Sox game. https://www.soxtalk.com/forums/profile/11716-downtown-brown/ Quote and if preparation and discipline was able to prevent TJ than that would be great. It may prove to be the right strategy, and they might get something great for him at the deadline, but but to say its anything other than a massive risk is crazy talk. Similar to if I was selling my loaded Jeep Grand Cherokee for 80k, and someone came and offered 78k. I can wait for a better offer, but id sure be taking a big risk! need to be an experienced car guy to know when to hold, and when to just sell. I trust getz! but no doubt a bold strategy! Quote Were you there? was planning on going but had to take my Grand Cherokee in for a tune up...Man those things leak oil. Quote Good Get (GG) We must be talking to the dawgs out there. Was getting my tires rotated this weekend on the ol Wrangler and heard the same chatter about Smitty here. Sox had their top hitting guy in to see him last week and he's a fan. Quote Wait so you do work for the sox? Thats so cool, thanks so much for sharing info to us super fans! Hope everyone else is having a good day. Afternoons like this make me glad i went with the hard top wrangler Quote GG thanks for sharing Harold. My sources are saying the same. They sent their top pitching guy in to go see him recently. well with a night like this i think im gonna take the soft top off the ol Jeep wrangler and go for a drive. DB Edited May 17 by WhiteSox2023 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegner Posted May 17 Author Share Posted May 17 19 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Wow, I thought you were joking. This is some strange stuff. Dude absolutely loves Jeeps. Even if the Sox were actually good, I’m pretty sure he’d prefer to cruise in his Jeep at night over watching a Sox game. https://www.soxtalk.com/forums/profile/11716-downtown-brown/ Oh my, that is some odd stuff....I'm sorry that I missed that guy "live". Seems like he'd get his own chapter if someone wrote This History of Soxtalk......ok maybe just a lengthy footnote, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 5 minutes ago, wegner said: Oh my, that is some odd stuff....I'm sorry that I missed that guy "live". Seems like he'd get his own chapter if someone wrote This History of Soxtalk......ok maybe just a lengthy footnote, At the very least, someone needs to decorate an 80's or 90's Jeep Wrangler exactly like that City Connect White Sox NASCAR get up... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 8 hours ago, greg775 said: You and I think the same way. We are in the minority on this site. Seems to me our fans are in love with the unknown. They want to flip just about everybody and guess what, if that happens, we win 40-50 games again next season with no guarantee the prospects we acquire will succeed. Can't believe the smart fans on here are falling for the tank again. Maybe the Sox can just tank from now through eternity and ultimately one of the 5 year tank processes will work. When new ownership arrives the franchise will be in a position to start bringing in competent individuals to run things. That gives you an opportunity to start "winning" again. Why is it so hard to understand that under current ownership the resources and talent SIMPLY ISN'T THERE and WON'T be because the owner refuses to spend/invest money to bringing it in. Therefore the only current way to 'maybe' start winning is to trade assets get back young unproven talent and hope it works out. Yes...that's all the Sox can do...hope. Signing an unproven Fedde who will be in his early 30's does very little to win in two years given the absolute chaos at all levels of the franchise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 (edited) 5 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said: Why is it so hard to understand that under current ownership the resources and talent SIMPLY ISN'T THERE and WON'T be because the owner refuses to spend/invest money to bringing it in. I'm trying to win now in spite of bad ownership, a bad manager and possibly a bad GM. Trading our only good players in coming weeks is a recipe for another 50 win season. Why would anybody want that? It's embarrassing and ridiculous way to run a team. Why give up when Jerry could live another 10-15 years with modern medicine. Edited May 17 by greg775 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 We are over here with people seriously talking about building around Fedde, meanwhile this exists on planet earth. When I talk about talent gap, this is exactly the type of stuff I am talking about. THIS is what you want to find in the draft and trade processes to build around. You are looking to give yourself every opportunities to back into talent like this, not a 31 year old who found the fountain of decency. I mean I glad Fedde is having a resurgence, but if you want to squint and look at a guy like this in a real playoff rotation, you know one with World Series aspirations, where you do see him? 3rd? 4th? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 11 hours ago, wegner said: Oh my, that is some odd stuff....I'm sorry that I missed that guy "live". Seems like he'd get his own chapter if someone wrote This History of Soxtalk......ok maybe just a lengthy footnote, Thinking history of SoxTalk has made me realize that some GOAT trolls have came and went. Some of you weren't even here for the Marty or Victory days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 8 minutes ago, Quin said: Thinking history of SoxTalk has made me realize that some GOAT trolls have came and went. Some of you weren't even here for the Marty or Victory days. Or some the less good ones, like Roman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBJ03 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Would Baltimore trade Kjerstad for Fedde in a one for one or is that just insane? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsox Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 They wouldn't do it for Cease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 1 hour ago, CBJ03 said: Would Baltimore trade Kjerstad for Fedde in a one for one or is that just insane? It is insane. I am guessing something like the Giolito return is the very top, probably less. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusty_Kuntz Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: We are over here with people seriously talking about building around Fedde, meanwhile this exists on planet earth. When I talk about talent gap, this is exactly the type of stuff I am talking about. THIS is what you want to find in the draft and trade processes to build around. You are looking to give yourself every opportunities to back into talent like this, not a 31 year old who found the fountain of decency. I mean I glad Fedde is having a resurgence, but if you want to squint and look at a guy like this in a real playoff rotation, you know one with World Series aspirations, where you do see him? 3rd? 4th? The 3rd one is one of the sickest pitches I've ever seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBJ03 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 34 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: It is insane. I am guessing something like the Giolito return is the very top, probably less. Im sure it is. I just dont get how much longer they want to keep a 25 year old OF in the minors. And Gio had 3 months of control headed to Free Agency. Fedde is cost controled for a year and a half at 7.5. Thats 5th starter level contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 5 minutes ago, CBJ03 said: Im sure it is. I just dont get how much longer they want to keep a 25 year old OF in the minors. And Gio had 3 months of control headed to Free Agency. Fedde is cost controled for a year and a half at 7.5. Thats 5th starter level contract. Gio had a much better history as well as ReyLo as part of the deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHurt3515 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 5 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: We are over here with people seriously talking about building around Fedde, meanwhile this exists on planet earth. When I talk about talent gap, this is exactly the type of stuff I am talking about. THIS is what you want to find in the draft and trade processes to build around. You are looking to give yourself every opportunities to back into talent like this, not a 31 year old who found the fountain of decency. I mean I glad Fedde is having a resurgence, but if you want to squint and look at a guy like this in a real playoff rotation, you know one with World Series aspirations, where you do see him? 3rd? 4th? Well yeah it would be great to get the 1st overall pick with one of the best pitching prospects in forever available 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 8 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: We are over here with people seriously talking about building around Fedde, meanwhile this exists on planet earth. When I talk about talent gap, this is exactly the type of stuff I am talking about. THIS is what you want to find in the draft and trade processes to build around. You are looking to give yourself every opportunities to back into talent like this, not a 31 year old who found the fountain of decency. I mean I glad Fedde is having a resurgence, but if you want to squint and look at a guy like this in a real playoff rotation, you know one with World Series aspirations, where you do see him? 3rd? 4th? What does any of this have to do with the return in an Erick Fedde trade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 5 hours ago, CBJ03 said: Im sure it is. I just dont get how much longer they want to keep a 25 year old OF in the minors. And Gio had 3 months of control headed to Free Agency. Fedde is cost controled for a year and a half at 7.5. Thats 5th starter level contract. But Gio also had two previous All Star/Cy Young vote seasons and that prospect pedigree of once having the best stuff of any prep RHP in baseball, as well as playoff experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 2 hours ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said: What does any of this have to do with the return in an Erick Fedde trade That all playoff teams dream on TOR arms like Skenes for the playoff starts...not Feddes Gibsons or Flahertys. I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 20 hours ago, Quin said: Thinking history of SoxTalk has made me realize that some GOAT trolls have came and went. Some of you weren't even here for the Marty or Victory days. Marty is still here. He is tray. He even made it obvious with his username. You can't spell "Marty" with T-R-A-Y. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrockway Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 somebody better at photoshop could have made this funny 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohnut Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Gave it a whirl. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 23 hours ago, CBJ03 said: Would Baltimore trade Kjerstad for Fedde in a one for one or is that just insane? That’s not just insane. It’s asinine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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