Keith Law's Updated Top 50

[DirtySox]

Keith Law posted his updated top 50. Calls it more of a check-in then a full update though. Colson and Schultz are the only two White Sox prospects on the list. Schultz jumped Colson from 79 to 23. Colson is now number 33 from a preseason ranking of 42. Blurbs below.

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Noah Schultz
LHP
CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Preseason Ranking: 79

Schultz dominated High A to start the year, striking out 38 percent of batters he faced in seven abbreviated starts before a bump up to Double A. The one knock here is that he hasn’t gotten more than 12 outs in any outing — he’s made nine appearances in total, and in seven of those, he went exactly four innings. He did end last year on the shelf with a sore shoulder, so I understand and appreciate the caution, but at some point, you’ve got to throw more than 67 pitches to be a top-end starter. He's got the stuff, and so far the results, striking out half of the 24 batters he's faced already since his promotion to Birmingham.

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Colson Montgomery
SS
CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Preseason Ranking: 42

Triple A has been a challenge for Montgomery, who is hitting .226/.333/.390 with a 29 percent strikeout rate and has been getting killed by velocity. When he swings at anything 94+, he whiffs 36 percent of the time. I saw a slower bat from him in the AFL last year, and heard from scouts who saw him in August that they also questioned the bat speed, but he was coming off a serious back injury and I assumed some of it was rust. This is definitely something to monitor as the sample size grows.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5530418/2024/06/03/mlb-top-50-prospects-in-season-holliday/?source=emp_shared_article

Edited June 3 by DirtySox

[southsider2k5]

Great to see Monty climb nine spots despite not having a great season so far.  Incredible to see Shultz bolt up the list that much.  Kid could be a top 10 type of guy once he gets to a full season's worth of innings in the next year or two.

[BamaDoc]

Have a feeling that Montgomery moving up has more to do with others graduating though I am not a subscriber.

[DirtySox]

1 hour ago, BamaDoc said:

Have a feeling that Montgomery moving up has more to do with others graduating though I am not a subscriber.

Yea. I haven't compared the two lists, but there's only one player who's ranking has gone down instead of up. River Ryan.

Edited June 3 by DirtySox

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

Have a feeling that Montgomery moving up has more to do with others graduating though I am not a subscriber.

Still, they could have dropped him, or they could have had others pass him while keeping him in about the same ranking position, but they didn't.

[bmags]

Oof that’s a scary write up 

[SoCalChiSox]

Fangraphs has him as 45 hit, 60 game power and that's fine if you add in a healthy OBP due to walks.

At SS, something like .245/.365/.455 is a unicorn and it's still a very good line at 3B too (OPS north of 800 and even higher vs RHP). 

I dont think anyone will complain about a SS or 3B with an OBP at or above 360 who hits 25-27 bombs a year. 

Didn't Cowser have issues adjusting to velocity too? I'm sure Colson will adjust...he is very young for that level. 

 

[zisk]

Almost shocking not to see Drew Thorpe on the list. It must be a tools driven list, rather than performance.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

9 hours ago, bmags said:

Oof that’s a scary write up 

Was thinking the same thing. Colson not working out would be quite the setback IMO.

[caulfield12]

7 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Fangraphs has him as 45 hit, 60 game power and that's fine if you add in a healthy OBP due to walks.

At SS, something like .245/.365/.455 is a unicorn and it's still a very good line at 3B too (OPS north of 800 and even higher vs RHP). 

I dont think anyone will complain about a SS or 3B with an OBP at or above 360 who hits 25-27 bombs a year. 

Didn't Cowser have issues adjusting to velocity too? I'm sure Colson will adjust...he is very young for that level. 

 

Just like Gordon Beckham (once compared to Derek Jeter in his future impact on the Sox during the first 3-4 months of his rookie season), Montgomery being "only" an 820 OPS type of player would be fine, but it might not be enough to move the meter simply because of the cost of buying 850+ OPS guys in free agency.

It feels like the only way the Sox would be able to compete in the future would be adding a bunch of 750-825 OPS players all across the diamond, instead of having 2-3 superstars (like the Blue Jays and Padres models) and trying to backfill in around that.

I still can't see where those players are going to come from.   Maybe Gonzalez and/or Baldwin can hold down the middle infield.  Montgomery at 3b, faith in Ramos isn't quite so high anymore.  Lee at catcher.   That still leaves 1B, DH and an entire outfield, assuming a Luis Robert trade at some point.

Edited June 4 by caulfield12

[mac9001]

18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Just like Gordon Beckham (once compared to Derek Jeter in his future impact on the Sox during the first 3-4 months of his rookie season), Montgomery being "only" an 820 OPS type of player would be fine, but it might not be enough to move the meter simply because of the cost of buying 850+ OPS guys in free agency.

It feels like the only way the Sox would be able to compete in the future would be adding a bunch of 750-825 OPS players all across the diamond, instead of having 2-3 superstars (like the Blue Jays and Padres models) and trying to backfill in around that.

I still can't see where those players are going to come from.   Maybe Gonzalez and/or Baldwin can hold down the middle infield.  Montgomery at 3b, faith in Ramos isn't quite so high anymore.  Lee at catcher.   That still leaves 1B, DH and an entire outfield, assuming a Luis Robert trade at some point.

If the White Sox are truly going to be competitive anytime soon again they will need to draft some impact position players in the next two drafts. What's currently in the system does not put them on a path to legitimate contention.

[michelangelosmonkey]

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Just like Gordon Beckham (once compared to Derek Jeter in his future impact on the Sox during the first 3-4 months of his rookie season), Montgomery being "only" an 820 OPS type of player would be fine, but it might not be enough to move the meter simply because of the cost of buying 850+ OPS guys in free agency.

It feels like the only way the Sox would be able to compete in the future would be adding a bunch of 750-825 OPS players all across the diamond, instead of having 2-3 superstars (like the Blue Jays and Padres models) and trying to backfill in around that.

I still can't see where those players are going to come from.   Maybe Gonzalez and/or Baldwin can hold down the middle infield.  Montgomery at 3b, faith in Ramos isn't quite so high anymore.  Lee at catcher.   That still leaves 1B, DH and an entire outfield, assuming a Luis Robert trade at some point.

At the risk of being optimistic...the White Sox have Garret Crochet at 24 having a breakout season (.93 WHIP, 6 Ks per BB, 12 K's per 9).  They have 3 pitchers in @JustBB_Media top 50 prospects in all of baseball...Shultz, Thorpe and Iriarte.  Grant Taylor might be the best of them all.  Isn't there a scenario where Thorpe becomes Greg Maddux 2.0 and the other four are dominant starters?  Then you have an all-world CF, a 2b, 3b and SS of Ramos, Montgomery and Gonzalez.   Solid Catchers.  If everyone else is garbage seems like you could be the late 60's Orioles, or the early 90's Braves?   Dominant pitching and defense.   The interesting thing about this rebuild is that the depth of the minors seems SO much better.   

[Rusty_Kuntz]

2 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

At the risk of being optimistic...the White Sox have Garret Crochet at 24 having a breakout season (.93 WHIP, 6 Ks per BB, 12 K's per 9).  They have 3 pitchers in @JustBB_Media top 50 prospects in all of baseball...Shultz, Thorpe and Iriarte.  Grant Taylor might be the best of them all.  Isn't there a scenario where Thorpe becomes Greg Maddux 2.0 and the other four are dominant starters?  Then you have an all-world CF, a 2b, 3b and SS of Ramos, Montgomery and Gonzalez.   Solid Catchers.  If everyone else is garbage seems like you could be the late 60's Orioles, or the early 90's Braves?   Dominant pitching and defense.   The interesting thing about this rebuild is that the depth of the minors seems SO much better.   

If everyone in the system becomes their 99% outcome, the Sox would be great. 

Unfortunately that never happens. If two of them hit that would be lucky. 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

At the risk of being optimistic...the White Sox have Garret Crochet at 24 having a breakout season (.93 WHIP, 6 Ks per BB, 12 K's per 9).  They have 3 pitchers in @JustBB_Media top 50 prospects in all of baseball...Shultz, Thorpe and Iriarte.  Grant Taylor might be the best of them all.  Isn't there a scenario where Thorpe becomes Greg Maddux 2.0 and the other four are dominant starters?  Then you have an all-world CF, a 2b, 3b and SS of Ramos, Montgomery and Gonzalez.   Solid Catchers.  If everyone else is garbage seems like you could be the late 60's Orioles, or the early 90's Braves?   Dominant pitching and defense.   The interesting thing about this rebuild is that the depth of the minors seems SO much better.   

The pitching depth is great, but there isn’t a lot of hitting talent and very few with star potential.  I’m still very much optimistic on Montgomery, but if he’s just a 2 win player, we are in big trouble.  

[southsider2k5]

5 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

At the risk of being optimistic...the White Sox have Garret Crochet at 24 having a breakout season (.93 WHIP, 6 Ks per BB, 12 K's per 9).  They have 3 pitchers in @JustBB_Media top 50 prospects in all of baseball...Shultz, Thorpe and Iriarte.  Grant Taylor might be the best of them all.  Isn't there a scenario where Thorpe becomes Greg Maddux 2.0 and the other four are dominant starters?  Then you have an all-world CF, a 2b, 3b and SS of Ramos, Montgomery and Gonzalez.   Solid Catchers.  If everyone else is garbage seems like you could be the late 60's Orioles, or the early 90's Braves?   Dominant pitching and defense.   The interesting thing about this rebuild is that the depth of the minors seems SO much better.   

I feel much better about our pitching depth.  You have some legitimate stars potentially in the pipeline there and can more easily project a 3 to 5 year staff than we can finding 9 starting fielders in this system.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

5 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

At the risk of being optimistic...the White Sox have Garret Crochet at 24 having a breakout season (.93 WHIP, 6 Ks per BB, 12 K's per 9).  They have 3 pitchers in @JustBB_Media top 50 prospects in all of baseball...Shultz, Thorpe and Iriarte.  Grant Taylor might be the best of them all.  Isn't there a scenario where Thorpe becomes Greg Maddux 2.0 and the other four are dominant starters?  Then you have an all-world CF, a 2b, 3b and SS of Ramos, Montgomery and Gonzalez.   Solid Catchers.  If everyone else is garbage seems like you could be the late 60's Orioles, or the early 90's Braves?   Dominant pitching and defense.   The interesting thing about this rebuild is that the depth of the minors seems SO much better.   

This is more than just being optimistic.

[bmags]

For the record I’m still a bit colson fan. But just remembering that judging our prospects is like rooting for the kid at the science fair who clearly had no help from his parents. 
 

He’ll figure it out.

[TaylorStSox]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The pitching depth is great, but there isn’t a lot of hitting talent and very few with star potential.  I’m still very much optimistic on Montgomery, but if he’s just a 2 win player, we are in big trouble.  

We're in big trouble with or without Montgomery being a 2 win player. This is going to take a long time.

[baseball_gal_aly]

1 hour ago, TaylorStSox said:

We're in big trouble with or without Montgomery being a 2 win player. This is going to take a long time.

Yeah, don't get attached to any of the prospects. 

[chitownsportsfan]

I can't stand how Law always has to interject some anecdote about how some scout told him something. Just comes across as such a blow hard all the time.