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Padres into Garret Crochet


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35 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Luckily for Aly, according to her timeline, when the Sox are approaching .500 again, there will be no need to log on to fangraphs.  She will be able to simply look up any stat projected from alien overload, Xeno-5587, into the government mandated chip all humans get transplanted in our brains after the war of 3052 AD.  

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3 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Ok in the fantasy land where Montgomery, Quero, Ramos and Gonzalez are all at least ML regulars, where are the rest of the hitters? 

It would take unprecedented prospect hit rates to achieve this. Its not going to happen.

Unless we can get Sale/Quintana like returns for Crochet and Robert this is going to take a long time to build back to just .500

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3 minutes ago, T R U said:

It would take unprecedented prospect hit rates to achieve this. Its not going to happen.

Unless we can get Sale/Quintana like returns for Crochet and Robert this is going to take a long time to build back to just .500

That's exactly my point. 

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7 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Ok in the fantasy land where Montgomery, Quero, Ramos and Gonzalez are all at least ML regulars, where are the rest of the hitters? 

 

1 minute ago, T R U said:

It would take unprecedented prospect hit rates to achieve this. Its not going to happen.

Unless we can get Sale/Quintana like returns for Crochet and Robert this is going to take a long time to build back to just .500

In the fantasy land scenario where you have Luis Robert and 4 regulars making the minimum, I think we can find 4 other guys in free agency or via trade over the course of 2 years.  

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

 

In the fantasy land scenario where you have Luis Robert and 4 regulars making the minimum, I think we can find 4 other guys in free agency or via trade over the course of 2 years.  

Didn't Hahn just fail at that for 3 seasons? 

Edited by baseball_gal_aly
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7 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Ok in the fantasy land where Montgomery, Quero, Ramos and Gonzalez are all at least ML regulars, where are the rest of the hitters? 

I dont think that's a fantasy land at all.

Montgomery and Quero should both be ML regulars at 3B and C respectively (perhaps Quero can platoon with Lee) and there's a decent chance Ramos is too. Gonzalez has made huge strides this year at the plate and most say he will stick at SS.

In terms of the rest of the lineup, they need to get one Top 100 OFer and one Top 100 IFer out of Fedde, Crochet, Flexen, Pham, Wilson and Kopech. Crochet by himself should get one of those and maybe Fedde plus some of the others gets you the other. 

If Robert is moved, we're prolly looking at one Top 10 (positional), and then two other Top 100s (perhaps another positional and another pitcher).

That's 4 new Top 100 positional players and the payroll is super low next year. Since they already set a SoxFest for Jan 2025, this implies they will be spending some money. It's when they know they aren't going to do anything do they conspicuously fail to do these events because they don't want to get yelled at. 

Even if Robert is kept, you prolly have 2 Top 100 position players coming plus some decent FAs.

I dont think it will take 5 years to be decent, if we can just execute on some of these trades and signings we should be a middle of the pack team pretty soon if these young pitchers continue to perform.

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9 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

 

In the fantasy land scenario where you have Luis Robert and 4 regulars making the minimum, I think we can find 4 other guys in free agency or via trade over the course of 2 years.  

I think it's fantasy land that the Sox retain Robert and he's still around when they climb out of the gutter. With their unwillingness to sign quality FA, they're going to have to cash Robert in. 

 

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2 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I dont think that's a fantasy land at all.

Montgomery and Quero should both be ML regulars at 3B and C respectively (perhaps Quero can platoon with Lee) and there's a decent chance Ramos is too. Gonzalez has made huge strides this year at the plate and most say he will stick at SS.

In terms of the rest of the lineup, they need to get one Top 100 OFer and one Top 100 IFer out of Fedde, Crochet, Flexen, Pham, Wilson and Kopech. Crochet by himself should get one of those and maybe Fedde plus some of the others gets you the other. 

If Robert is moved, we're prolly looking at one Top 10 (positional), and then two other Top 100s (perhaps another positional and another pitcher).

That's 4 new Top 100 positional players and the payroll is super low next year. Since they already set a SoxFest for Jan 2025, this implies they will be spending some money. It's when they know they aren't going to do anything do they conspicuously fail to do these events because they don't want to get yelled at. 

Even if Robert is kept, you prolly have 2 Top 100 position players coming plus some decent FAs.

I dont think it will take 5 years to be decent, if we can just execute on some of these trades and signings we should be a middle of the pack team pretty soon if these young pitchers continue to perform.

Moncada, Jimenez, Robert and Vaughn were more highly touted than any of those guys. Only Moncada and Robert turned out to be MLB regulars outside of the bouncy ball season in 2019. 

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10 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

 

In the fantasy land scenario where you have Luis Robert and 4 regulars making the minimum, I think we can find 4 other guys in free agency or via trade over the course of 2 years.  

I remember when I used to believe that.  I believe Rick used to call it "unprecedented financial flexibility"  And then we crapped out around the 1A type free agents, and instead got into the C tier.

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5 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

In the fantasy land scenario where you have Luis Robert and 4 regulars making the minimum, I think we can find 4 other guys in free agency or via trade over the course of 2 years.  

Just assume they make no trades and decline options on the obvious. If you think were magically going to add 15 players to this roster that make significant steps forward between prospects hitting and free agency you're crazy. And this is with no trades assumed and Vaughn not getting non tendered.

C - Korey Lee

1B - Andrew Vaughn

2B - NO ONE

3B - NO ONE

SS - NO ONE

LF - Andrew Benintendi

CF - Luis Robert

RF - Corey Julks

DH - Gavin Sheets

 

SP - Garrett Crochet

SP - Erick Fedde

SP - NO ONE

SP - NO ONE

SP - NO ONE

BULLPEN - Kopech, Wilson, Leasure, and then a bunch of NO ONE

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

I remember when I used to believe that.  I believe Rick used to call it "unprecedented financial flexibility"  And then we crapped out around the 1A type free agents, and instead got into the C tier.

Ding ding ding we have a winner

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, T R U said:

Just assume they make no trades and decline options on the obvious. If you think were magically going to add 15 players to this roster that make significant steps forward between prospects hitting and free agency you're crazy. And this is with no trades assumed and Vaughn not getting non tendered.

C - Korey Lee

1B - Andrew Vaughn

2B - NO ONE

3B - NO ONE

SS - NO ONE

LF - Andrew Benintendi

CF - Luis Robert

RF - Corey Julks

DH - Gavin Sheets

 

SP - Garrett Crochet

SP - Erick Fedde

SP - NO ONE

SP - NO ONE

SP - NO ONE

BULLPEN - Kopech, Wilson, Leasure, and then a bunch of NO ONE

You can add 1B to the Nobody list as Vaughn deserves a non-tender imo. 

I'd put Sheets there ahead of Vaughn. 

Edited by baseball_gal_aly
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6 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I dont think that's a fantasy land at all.

Montgomery and Quero should both be ML regulars at 3B and C respectively (perhaps Quero can platoon with Lee) and there's a decent chance Ramos is too. Gonzalez has made huge strides this year at the plate and most say he will stick at SS.

In terms of the rest of the lineup, they need to get one Top 100 OFer and one Top 100 IFer out of Fedde, Crochet, Flexen, Pham, Wilson and Kopech. Crochet by himself should get one of those and maybe Fedde plus some of the others gets you the other. 

If Robert is moved, we're prolly looking at one Top 10 (positional), and then two other Top 100s (perhaps another positional and another pitcher).

That's 4 new Top 100 positional players and the payroll is super low next year. Since they already set a SoxFest for Jan 2025, this implies they will be spending some money. It's when they know they aren't going to do anything do they conspicuously fail to do these events because they don't want to get yelled at. 

Even if Robert is kept, you prolly have 2 Top 100 position players coming plus some decent FAs.

I dont think it will take 5 years to be decent, if we can just execute on some of these trades and signings we should be a middle of the pack team pretty soon if these young pitchers continue to perform.

The Sox starting tearing it down after 2016. They stunk in 2017, 2018, and 2019 finally getting back to .500 in 2020 but we dont even know how that full season would have ended anyways.

You're looking at 2024, 2025, and 2026 as loser seasons pretty much guaranteed. I would be putting my money on 5 years if I was a betting man. Things could certainly change if they can get a haul for Crochet, Robert, and Fedde.

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1 minute ago, T R U said:

The Sox starting tearing it down after 2016. They stunk in 2017, 2018, and 2019 finally getting back to .500 in 2020 but we dont even know how that full season would have ended anyways.

You're looking at 2024, 2025, and 2026 as loser seasons pretty much guaranteed. I would be putting my money on 5 years if I was a betting man. Things could certainly change if they can get a haul for Crochet, Robert, and Fedde.

Considering 60 games in, they were down to 2 starters, it probably wouldn't have ended well.

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1 minute ago, T R U said:

The Sox starting tearing it down after 2016. They stunk in 2017, 2018, and 2019 finally getting back to .500 in 2020 but we dont even know how that full season would have ended anyways.

You're looking at 2024, 2025, and 2026 as loser seasons pretty much guaranteed. I would be putting my money on 5 years if I was a betting man. Things could certainly change if they can get a haul for Crochet, Robert, and Fedde.

I'm glad people are coming around on the trade Robert front. 

It's really hard to see anything better than .500 in 2027, Robert's last year under contract. 

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1 minute ago, T R U said:

Just assume they make no trades and decline options on the obvious. If you think were magically going to add 15 players to this roster that make significant steps forward between prospects hitting and free agency you're crazy. And this is with no trades assumed and Vaughn not getting non tendered.

C - Korey Lee

1B - Andrew Vaughn

2B - NO ONE

3B - NO ONE

SS - NO ONE

LF - Andrew Benintendi

CF - Luis Robert

RF - Corey Julks

DH - Gavin Sheets

 

SP - Garrett Crochet

SP - Erick Fedde

SP - NO ONE

SP - NO ONE

SP - NO ONE

BULLPEN - Kopech, Wilson, Leasure, and then a bunch of NO ONE

Why are we assuming they make no trades, promotions, or free agent signings over a two year period? 

All you did was list out guys on a historically bad team and typed "no one" in bold letters in a bunch of places. 

 

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5 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Moncada, Jimenez, Robert and Vaughn were more highly touted than any of those guys. Only Moncada and Robert turned out to be MLB regulars outside of the bouncy ball season in 2019. 

And if we get 2 of our present 4 to be ML regulars, and add 5 Top 100s in the Robert/Crochet/Fedde etc trades...let's say only 2 of the 5 are ML regulars, that's already 4 before taking into account FA signings now that payroll is super low.

The whole lineup doesn't have to be good in order for us to be a decent-ish team. The Top 5 or maybe 6 does, but very few teams have anything special in the bottom third of the lineup. 

Point is, its not going to take a huge undertaking to be an 85 win team that can compete for a wildcard. With a good pitching staff, you've won half the battle already.

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5 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

You can add 1B to the Nobody list as Vaughn deserves a non-tender imo. 

I'd put Sheets there ahead of Vaughn. 

Neither would be a starter on a playoff team. I doubt Sheets would even be a bench guy.

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3 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Why are we assuming they make no trades, promotions, or free agent signings over a two year period? 

All you did was list out guys on a historically bad team and typed "no one" in bold letters in a bunch of places. 

 

I was talking about next season, that wasn't 3-4 years down the line. It was just to show the massive amount of holes that need to be filled on this roster. And that was without trading those guys. Once they do get traded, its even more holes to be filled.

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3 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Correct. 

As soon as they start to get more expensive in arb, the non-tenders will come. They're both journeyman AAAA guys at best.

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