Padres into Garret Crochet

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Fedde? A guy who was a scrap heap "20% of the time this works out" type signing? The type of signing the Sox have made for a decade, even when firmly in the contention window and need much more than just 20% odds of average production?

You can't make a living signing guys that had career .3 WAR to fill out the rotation. That's doomed to fail over a large sample, as we've all seen. The occasional lightning strike doesn't make up for the half a dozen misses before and after.

20 % would be pretty good rate of scrap heap pitchers working out. Rodon was one .Well sort of. Sox refused to give him a QO and they got nothing for him.   They abused the hell out of his arm as if they knew they weren't going to give him  a QO way in advance. And pretty much half the board agreed with that decision with a 2022 contention window expected to still be open.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Nardiwashere said:

They just signed one this past offseason.  

How low are your expectations?

2 actually if you count Clevinger.

[joejoesox]

so what are people saying now, because we have crochet for 2 more years, and that we /might/ be competitive in 2026, we should keep him and try to win now before he's a FA? 

the f?

[Texsox]

10 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Spin it any way you want. They actually offered more than the Phillies. Wheeler's wife wanted to be on the East Coast. 

Thank you for the permission to spin it any way.

"It's my wife, not me" is a wonderfully modern strategy. She also made some great financial transactions, she consulted with foreign governments,  and she flew a US flag upside down. 

Translated, my career may get so bad down the line I would sign with the Sox, so I'll find an excuse like " it's not you, it's my wife. Bro, you know how it is, happy wife, happy life."

It actually doesn't matter why, it's another example of the Sox needing to over offer to obtain a player. Anyone ever waive a no trade clause to come to the Sox? 

[Texsox]

8 hours ago, joejoesox said:

so what are people saying now, because we have crochet for 2 more years, and that we /might/ be competitive in 2026, we should keep him and try to win now before he's a FA? 

the f?

I believe the hope is they extend him before he hits FA. Which probably also warrants a

The f?

[baseball_gal_aly]

8 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I believe the hope is they extend him before he hits FA. Which probably also warrants a

The f?

Why would Crochet extend this close to FA? 

[Chick Mercedes]

9 hours ago, joejoesox said:

so what are people saying now, because we have crochet for 2 more years, and that we /might/ be competitive in 2026, we should keep him and try to win now before he's a FA? 

the f?

Nothing matters. Do whatever. As long as Jerry is the owner, do whatever. 

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Why would Crochet extend this close to FA? 

If Crochet had no confidence in his ability to stay healthy until free agency and the Sox liked him enough to offer him a pretty big extension.  But I doubt either side feels this way.

[Texsox]

2 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Why would Crochet extend this close to FA? 

I'm some organizations they actually make offers that are reasonable and actually acceptable to the player. 

So it probably won't happen. 

[baseball_gal_aly]

2 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I'm some organizations they actually make offers that are reasonable and actually acceptable to the player. 

So it probably won't happen. 

It would probably take 5/90 and I'm not comfortable based on half a season. As much as l am a fan of GC. 

Edited June 6 by baseball_gal_aly

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

It would probably take 5/90 and I'm not comfortable based on half a season. As much as l am a fan of GC. 

I think that is too little to get him to give up three prime years of free agency.

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I think that is too little to get him to give up three prime years of free agency.

Hitting at 27 could be a gold mine.

IF IF IF still healthy.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Hitting at 27 could be a gold mine.

IF IF IF still healthy.

If he is willing to give up 3 years of free agency, that is probably what it is saying.

[WBWSF]

17 hours ago, greg775 said:

If the Sox have to trade all their good players cause they'll never be able to sign them then why have a team? Just contract the team or get an owner with deep pockets who wants to win.

You know this Central Division isn't that hard to rim. Remember it's usually the Sox responsible for these teams actually having good seasons cause they boatrace the Sox so often. We singlehandedly gave the Royals confidence early on, ditto Minnesota which was in the tank til it played the Sox. Sickening we can't sign anybody and apparently will have to win with 22 to 25 year olds and retreads which will never happen.

Geez, sell the damn team.

If they're not going to keep Robert Jr and Crochet things are really going to get much worse. They're the only reason to watch the games. I know a couple of my season ticket holders who won't renew next year if they trade these guys.

[flavum]

4 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

If they're not going to keep Robert Jr and Crochet things are really going to get much worse. They're the only reason to watch the games. I know a couple of my season ticket holders who won't renew next year if they trade these guys.

If you’re a season ticket holder, I hope at this point you go because you like the atmosphere of a baseball game, and not for the people in the uniforms. The Sox rebuild failed. Crochet is another injury waiting to happen. Robert gets hurt every year too. They are better fits for teams that are close and they can dream on them being available in September and October for a run. The Sox need a massive amount of prospects and then try to emulate what the O’s are doing now. If the deals are right, they have to move them. 120 losses? 125? Abysmal is abysmal. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Why would Crochet extend this close to FA? 

This close ? FA in 2027. That's 2.5 years.Thats a lifetime for a pitcher who's been injured as much as he has and who is in the 1st phase of seeing how he holds up on a starting pitcher's schedule.

He still has a lot to prove. Financial security for the rest of your life when you are 24 should be extremely attractive to him when the alternative could be non tendered in a more injuries scenario.

[WhiteSox2023]

29 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

If they're not going to keep Robert Jr and Crochet things are really going to get much worse. They're the only reason to watch the games. I know a couple of my season ticket holders who won't renew next year if they trade these guys.

The Sox won’t be likely to improve if they keep them either, unless we get a new owner soon that throws around money in free agency.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

If Crochet had no confidence in his ability to stay healthy until free agency and the Sox liked him enough to offer him a pretty big extension.  But I doubt either side feels this way.

Depends what you mean by a pretty big extension. Is offering a 24 year old who has no starting pitching history and actually has more of a history of injuries something in the range of $40M to keep him till he's through 2028 sound fair to both sides ?

That's guaranteed money to set you up comfortably for the rest of your life or go with whatever he'll make until he's a FA in 2027 which is largely dependent on his health and stats as a SP.

If you were Crochet would you risk passing that kind of money up when the very real alternative is more injuries that keep him from ever making that kind of money and having one of those nomadic baseball careers.

Sure he could believe in himself and end up terribly wrong just as the Sox could take the chance to believe in him and also be terribly wrong so they hedge their bets by offering something modest like 2025 $5M, 2026 $8M , 2027 $12M, 2028 $15M.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I think that is too little to get him to give up three prime years of free agency.

Too little? With his injury history ? That's just an insanely irresponsible offer. He's pitched .5 years as a SP .

If he has another major injury this year or next that keeps him out for another year+ his career could be over.  Half of that for 4 years would be fine.

You give up 2 years of free agency but when the alternative is maybe less than 50/50 that you'll ever be in a position as a startinng pitcher to expect to receive that kind of money, you would seriously have to consider a decent but not irresponsible multi year offer from the Sox.

Edited June 6 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[southsider2k5]

43 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Too little? With his injury history ? That's just an insanely irresponsible offer. He's pitched .5 years as a SP .

If he has another major injury this year or next that keeps him out for another year+ his career could be over.  Half of that for 4 years would be fine.

You give up 2 years of free agency but when the alternative is maybe less than 50/50 that you'll ever be in a position as a startinng pitcher to expect to receive that kind of money, you would seriously have to consider a decent but not irresponsible multi year offer from the Sox.

If he is signing a 5 year deal right now, I think he already is hurt, and it looking for the money.  Otherwise a kid who has done what he has done this year so far has to be thinking he can get a $200 to $300 million long term deal in two short years.  My feeling is the kind of kid who goes back and tells the new GM he wants to start, is the kind of guy who has no problem betting on themselves.

Maybe you can get creative and work out a 3 to 4 year deal, which gives up only a year or maybe two of his free agency for more money in the next two years, but I can't see him giving up 3 of his prime earning years if he has come this far without already signing a cheap extension.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Depends what you mean by a pretty big extension. Is offering a 24 year old who has no starting pitching history and actually has more of a history of injuries something in the range of $40M to keep him till he's through 2028 sound fair to both sides ?

That's guaranteed money to set you up comfortably for the rest of your life or go with whatever he'll make until he's a FA in 2027 which is largely dependent on his health and stats as a SP.

If you were Crochet would you risk passing that kind of money up when the very real alternative is more injuries that keep him from ever making that kind of money and having one of those nomadic baseball careers.

Sure he could believe in himself and end up terribly wrong just as the Sox could take the chance to believe in him and also be terribly wrong so they hedge their bets by offering something modest like 2025 $5M, 2026 $8M , 2027 $12M, 2028 $15M.

For the record, his 25 and 26 should be not too far from those numbers just by the arbitration process.  I don't think that is enough up front, and it SURE isn't enough in his free agent years.  In this market place, he is a $25 to $30 million a year pitcher.  Forget injuries, we have seen plenty of guys who pitch half a season get that kind of money.  Tyler Glasnow got $27 million a year for 5 years by pitching less than 100 innings in 4 of 6 seasons, with a career high of 120 innings.  There are other examples out there for sure.  Garrett Crochet isn't giving up 2 years of free agency for what he could get in one year of free agency on the open market.

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Depends what you mean by a pretty big extension. Is offering a 24 year old who has no starting pitching history and actually has more of a history of injuries something in the range of $40M to keep him till he's through 2028 sound fair to both sides ?

That's guaranteed money to set you up comfortably for the rest of your life or go with whatever he'll make until he's a FA in 2027 which is largely dependent on his health and stats as a SP.

If you were Crochet would you risk passing that kind of money up when the very real alternative is more injuries that keep him from ever making that kind of money and having one of those nomadic baseball careers.

Sure he could believe in himself and end up terribly wrong just as the Sox could take the chance to believe in him and also be terribly wrong so they hedge their bets by offering something modest like 2025 $5M, 2026 $8M , 2027 $12M, 2028 $15M.

Agreed, but I think he would want more than $40 million through 2028 at this point and I doubt the Sox would be the willing risk takers in this situation.  If the price was $40 million through 2028, the Sox should probably jump on that regardless of where they are in their rebuild.  Hell, they already waste $20+ million a year in the offseason anyways so that would be a risk worth taking.

But just imagine if Crochet is truly over his injury issues with how little mileage there has been on his arm, and this is truly the guy he is now?  The Padres are definitely more of a team willing to take on this risk, and there’s not often a 24 year old potential lefty ace available, even on the trade market.

With the questions around Crochet — injuries, potential innings limit for this year, and lack of this kind of success until this year — I wonder how much this will impact the return on him in a trade.  He is truly a boom or bust type acquisition for some team.  Like acquiring a much younger Carlos Rodon.

Edited June 6 by WhiteSox2023

[joejoesox]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

The Sox won’t be likely to improve if they keep them either, unless we get a new owner soon that throws around money in free agency.

i dont agree w/ that, they dont need a massive payroll to be competitive, they just need to completely overhaul the front office, and that isn't gonna happen until there's a new owner

[WhiteSox2023]

4 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

i dont agree w/ that, they dont need a massive payroll to be competitive, they just need to completely overhaul the front office, and that isn't gonna happen until there's a new owner

Agreed, but JR isn’t going that route.  Like @Dick Allen always reminds us, Getz was chosen because he knew the system and it wouldn’t take him a full year to get ramped into the GM position, like an outside GM candidate would’ve required.  Well, after this season we now see that this would’ve been the better route to take since Getz ended up wasting a season anyways.

Edited June 6 by WhiteSox2023

[Lip Man 1]

Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

Agreed, but JR isn’t going that route.  Like Dick Allen always reminds us, Getz was chosen because he knows the system and it wouldn’t take him a year to get ramped up into the GM position, like an outside GM candidate would’ve required.  Well, after this season we now see that this would’ve been the better route to take since Getz ended up wasting a season anyways.

AND wasting a LOT of JR's "precious" money (with at least till now, no blow-back)