Padres into Garret Crochet

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Too bad his replacement hasn't done anything to prove he's any better.

And without replacing the owner, it isn't like we will start chasing A level free agents.

[Nardiwashere]

4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

And if we get 2 of our present 4 to be ML regulars, and add 5 Top 100s in the Robert/Crochet/Fedde etc trades...let's say only 2 of the 5 are ML regulars, that's already 4 before taking into account FA signings now that payroll is super low.

The whole lineup doesn't have to be good in order for us to be a decent-ish team. The Top 5 or maybe 6 does, but very few teams have anything special in the bottom third of the lineup. 

Point is, its not going to take a huge undertaking to be an 85 win team that can compete for a wildcard. With a good pitching staff, you've won half the battle already.

This is a team that is 1 game above .500 right now.  If it takes until 2030 to build an offense as good as this, you're all right about Getz.

[Rowand44]

7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Considering 60 games in, they were down to 2 starters, it probably wouldn't have ended well.

And they were fading at the end of that short year too.  The 2020 season was super fun for what it was but that team would have been toast in a 162 game season.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

And if we get 2 of our present 4 to be ML regulars, and add 5 Top 100s in the Robert/Crochet/Fedde etc trades...let's say only 2 of the 5 are ML regulars, that's already 4 before taking into account FA signings now that payroll is super low.

The whole lineup doesn't have to be good in order for us to be a decent-ish team. The Top 5 or maybe 6 does, but very few teams have anything special in the bottom third of the lineup. 

Point is, its not going to take a huge undertaking to be an 85 win team that can compete for a wildcard. With a good pitching staff, you've won half the battle already.

If these guys turn out to be four regulars, we are still in big trouble.  We need to find 2 to 3 positional stars if we are going to still exist with decent holes. If we don't get them in these trades, we push the timeline back.  Again.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

16 minutes ago, T R U said:

Just assume they make no trades and decline options on the obvious. If you think were magically going to add 15 players to this roster that make significant steps forward between prospects hitting and free agency you're crazy. And this is with no trades assumed and Vaughn not getting non tendered.

C - Korey Lee

1B - Andrew Vaughn

2B - NO ONE

3B - NO ONE

SS - NO ONE

LF - Andrew Benintendi

CF - Luis Robert

RF - Corey Julks

DH - Gavin Sheets

 

SP - Garrett Crochet

SP - Erick Fedde

SP - NO ONE

SP - NO ONE

SP - NO ONE

BULLPEN - Kopech, Wilson, Leasure, and then a bunch of NO ONE

I bet Detroit fans were thinking similar things about the Tigers in 2003. Three years later they were in the World Series. I’m not saying that will happen with the Sox but things can change more quickly than you think.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

9 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

1. Ownership won't extend either Crochet or Robert at fair value

2. They're 5 years away so it's pointless. 

 You can't even establish what fair value is on those guys. If Robert keeps getting hurt his extension he got already will start looking like Moncada's did at the end.

Crochet could accept a cheap extension for $30M for 3 years . That sure beats an 800K salary and being non tendered eventually if he blows out his arm.

[Tnetennba]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

And without replacing the owner, it isn't like we will start chasing A level free agents.

Yup. Even if Getz somehow proves to be more competent ( a big IF ) or proves to be a better talent evaluator ( an even bigger IF ) than Hahn or KW, he's still handcuffed by how JR operates.  

[SoCalChiSox]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And without replacing the owner, it isn't like we will start chasing A level free agents.

We're not going to chase A level FAs but with payroll super low next year and with the Sox already scheduling a SoxFest, it suggests we will sign some solid non-scrub FAs to give people something to talk about. 

[T R U]

1 minute ago, Nardiwashere said:

This is a team that is 1 game above .500 right now.  If it takes until 2030 to build an offense as good as this, you're all right about Getz.

Helps when you have a top 10 pitching staff.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, SoCalChiSox said:

We're not going to chase A level FAs but with payroll super low next year and with the Sox already scheduling a SoxFest, it suggests we will sign some solid non-scrub FAs to give people something to talk about. 

It still leaves the franchise bereft of stars level performance.  You can get by with holes when you have stars to cover that up, but when you don't, you can't have holes.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, T R U said:

Helps when you have a top 10 pitching staff.

That’s the one area where the Sox are deep in the minor leagues - pitching.

[SoCalChiSox]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

It still leaves the franchise bereft of stars level performance.  You can get by with holes when you have stars to cover that up, but when you don't, you can't have holes.

I dont know what star level would be but I would say Montgomery needs to be 3 WAR or more and the Top 10 player they get for Robert also needs to be 3 WAR or more.

I think between Quero, Ramos and the other couple Top 100 bats they get in these Robert, Crochet, Fedde etc trades, they can hopefully get 1-2 2.5 WAR guys. 

It shouldn't be extremely hard to produce an 85 win team when you probably will have a decent pitching staff.

[Tnetennba]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It still leaves the franchise bereft of stars level performance.  You can get by with holes when you have stars to cover that up, but when you don't, you can't have holes.

Exactly. Unless you have elite level performance somewhere, there is a real ceiling to how far you can go. 

[Rowand44]

2 minutes ago, T R U said:

Helps when you have a top 10 pitching staff.

And despite that offense being mediocre or whatever we want to call Detroit they've still already scored 81 more runs than the Sox just to show how far we have to go.  Look, is it possible for this team to be decent in 2-3 years?  Sure I guess anything is possible.  That said, when/if we trade Robert and Crochet we're literally going to be starting with nothing, nada, not a damn thing in the major leagues.  We're going to need everyone that has been discussed in this thread to not only hit as a prospect but hit right away and somehow not go through early struggles for the first few years.  Like I said earlier, anything is possible but the safe bet is this is going to take many years before this is a passable ball club.

[Rowand44]

6 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I dont know what star level would be but I would say Montgomery needs to be 3 WAR or more and the Top 10 player they get for Robert also needs to be 3 WAR or more.

I think between Quero, Ramos and the other couple Top 100 bats they get in these Robert, Crochet, Fedde etc trades, they can hopefully get 1-2 2.5 WAR guys. 

It shouldn't be extremely hard to produce an 85 win team when you probably will have a decent pitching staff.

Just cause Birmingham has an awesome staff doesn't mean that's all going to translate to Chicago.  Once again, you trade Crochet and we're literally starting with nothing at the major league level.  To assume that the pitching is going to be good is an assumption I'm not ready to roll with it yet.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Rowand44 said:

And despite that offense being mediocre or whatever we want to call Detroit they've still already scored 81 more runs than the Sox just to show how far we have to go.  Look, is it possible for this team to be decent in 2-3 years?  Sure I guess anything is possible.  That said, when/if we trade Robert and Crochet we're literally going to be starting with nothing, nada, not a damn thing in the major leagues.  We're going to need everyone that has been discussed in this thread to not only hit as a prospect but hit right away and somehow not go through early struggles for the first few years.  Like I said earlier, anything is possible but the safe bet is this is going to take many years before this is a passable ball club.

Not to mention you somehow have to built a system which also keeps guys coming behind the initial wave to make sure that whoever falters in the initial wave is able to be replaced down the line.  We never figured that out either.  We have to hope that the guys who took over for our previous minor league director are a LOT better.

[T R U]

1 minute ago, Rowand44 said:

And despite that offense being mediocre or whatever we want to call Detroit they've still already scored 81 more runs than the Sox just to show how far we have to go.  Look, is it possible for this team to be decent in 2-3 years?  Sure I guess anything is possible.  That said, when/if we trade Robert and Crochet we're literally going to be starting with nothing, nada, not a damn thing in the major leagues.  We're going to need everyone that has been discussed in this thread to not only hit as a prospect but hit right away and somehow not go through early struggles for the first few years.  Like I said earlier, anything is possible but the safe bet is this is going to take many years before this is a passable ball club.

Its bad, really bad.

If they trade Crochet, Robert, Fedde, Kopech, Wilson

Decline options on Maldonado, Stassi, Moncada, Jimenez

Non tender Vaughn and Lopez

Where is a competent MLB roster going to come from next season?

[WestEddy]

19 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Yup. Even if Getz somehow proves to be more competent ( a big IF ) or proves to be a better talent evaluator ( an even bigger IF ) than Hahn or KW, he's still handcuffed by how JR operates.  

It certainly seems that Getz relies on his scouting departments more than Hahn and KW ever did. 

[SoCalChiSox]

8 minutes ago, Rowand44 said:

Just cause Birmingham has an awesome staff doesn't mean that's all going to translate to Chicago.  Once again, you trade Crochet and we're literally starting with nothing at the major league level.  To assume that the pitching is going to be good is an assumption I'm not ready to roll with it yet.

The whole pitching thing turns on whether Schultz can stick as a SP rather than a super reliever. If he sticks, then he's likely an Ace. 

I think Thorpe is a good bet to be a solid 4 as he has a high floor.

So then the thing is out of Nastrini, Eder, Bush, Taylor and Iriarte, can you get at least ONE solid 2 or 3?

If you can, then it's a good homegrown staff and you don't need to supplement with too much FA. 

Schultz staying healthy and being able to go 6 IP is the key to everything. 

Edited June 5 by SoCalChiSox

[baseball_gal_aly]

2 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

The whole pitching thing turns on whether Schultz can stick as a SP rather than a super reliever. If he sticks, then he's likely an Ace. 

I think Thorpe is a good bet to be a solid 4 as he has a high floor.

So then the thing is out of Nastrini, Eder, Bush, Taylor and Iriarte, can you get at least ONE solid 2 or 3?

If you can, then it's a good homegrown staff and you don't need to supplement with too much FA. 

Schultz staying healthy and being able to go 6 IP is the key to everything. 

I think Thorpe is a complete wild card. He's either going to be a solid 3 or cannon fodder. 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Rowand44 said:

Just cause Birmingham has an awesome staff doesn't mean that's all going to translate to Chicago.  Once again, you trade Crochet and we're literally starting with nothing at the major league level.  To assume that the pitching is going to be good is an assumption I'm not ready to roll with it yet.

Look, if everything goes to form, you have two guys who you can squint a project out as true star pitchers in Schultz and Grant Taylor, and there is a lot of time there for that to happen.  Taylor is still in A ball, which means at the very least two years away, but it wouldn't be crazy to say 3.  Schultz just got to AA, and is under huge innings limitations.  He is probably two to three years from a real starters workload.  And that is just to get them here. 

The next tier of guys is more of the they should be rotation guys, maybe even good ones, but they need some things to break their way for that to happen.  That is the camp of Iriarte (control), Thorpe (how does a sub-average fastball translate to MLB), Eder (waiting for stuff to come back post TJS, Palette (another waiting to show that projected lottery pick stuff post TJS), Ky Bush (can he keep up a good year after a horrible 23), Tanner MacDougal (raw as hell, waiting for a breakout, could push into the top tier if his stuff steps up), Keener (years away, off to a good start).  It is fair to think at least a couple of them make it, and a couple of them don't.

The tier after are guys who project to be more of end of the rotation guys at this point like Nastrini and Cannon.  Sure you have Sean Burke, he's another who is recovering and needs time.

The rest I put more as lottery tickets and waiting to see what happens, but nothing you can really count on as of yet.

[WestEddy]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Not to mention you somehow have to built a system which also keeps guys coming behind the initial wave to make sure that whoever falters in the initial wave is able to be replaced down the line.  We never figured that out either.  We have to hope that the guys who took over for our previous minor league director are a LOT better.

The Sox have about 15 good starting pitching prospects scattered over 4-5 levels of minor leagues.

[T R U]

4 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

The Sox have about 15 good starting pitching prospects scattered over 4-5 levels of minor leagues.

Name 'em

[Nardiwashere]

  

Just now, Rowand44 said:

Just cause Birmingham has an awesome staff doesn't mean that's all going to translate to Chicago.  Once again, you trade Crochet and we're literally starting with nothing at the major league level.  To assume that the pitching is going to be good is an assumption I'm not ready to roll with it yet.

I agree. I don't trade Crochet unless someone makes a crazy offer.  

So let's say you have Crochet and another FA SP in the middle of the rotation.  I feel ok that they can get 3-4 guys out of the dozen guys in the minors and any other signings or trades that haven't happened yet. 

If you keep Robert, turn 2 position players from the minors into regulars, find 1 or 2 position players this deadline, you're looking at two offseasons to find another 3-4 guys.  

Maybe I'm nuts, but those numbers don't seem outlandish to me. 

Will the team have a shot at the world series?  Probably not.  But I'll be able to come home from work in the summer and put a baseball game on that doesn't feel like someone kicking me in the balls instead of a stupid netflix documentary about a tiktok cult.

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, T R U said:

Name 'em

Why don't you just go look them up? We are deep in pitching. That's not a controversial statement.