chitownsportsfan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 39 minutes ago, WestEddy said: In the last few years, teams in contention pulled off trades like this: 2021 - Brewers sent 2 relievers to Toronto for Rowdy Tellez (.605 OPS) 2022 - Mets sent bullpen arm to Pirates for Dan Vogelbach (.769 OPS) 2023 - Brewers sent minor league starter Justin Jarvis to Mets for Mark Canha (.725 OPS) 1B offense has cratered in the AL this year. Vaughn has 5-6 weeks to solidify himself as a .750 OPS hitter. Sheets has already done so. Until last week, the Red Sox were running Garrett Cooper out there at first. Houston is writing Jon Singleton into the lineup. Again, I'm sure you can make a point without sounding like a circus clown, no matter how silly your point is. All teams have scouts. They don't look up a player on B-R.com, then make a trade based on their stat line. If they feel Sheets' and Vaughn's adjustments are real and repeatable, both have value. Not really sure this is a strong response to "nobody is trading for Andrew Vaughn". Clearly he was speaking a bit rhetorically and if you want to trade Vaughn for what essentially amounts to PTBNL like returns, well, that's no good. At that point you just hold onto him and hope like hell in 2025 he's an average regular and maybe you can actually get a real prospect return for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 10 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: Not really sure this is a strong response to "nobody is trading for Andrew Vaughn". Clearly he was speaking a bit rhetorically and if you want to trade Vaughn for what essentially amounts to PTBNL like returns, well, that's no good. At that point you just hold onto him and hope like hell in 2025 he's an average regular and maybe you can actually get a real prospect return for him. The guy I responded to is more about mocking any non-negative opinion of this team, and he usually responds mockingly to any notion that any player on this team could have any trade value. So my response is fine, thanks. The trades I listed were for more than the PTBNL. People here were talking about optioning Vaughn, then cutting him in the off-season. If Vaughn's adjustments are real, then he could very well be a serious upgrade over a half dozen first basemen on contending teams. So could Sheets. That's not a controversial take. Yeah, I would love to see Vaughn do what he's been doing for the last 3 weeks over the next 2 years for us. But the reporting is that Getz will trade pretty much anyone on the ML club, right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 AV and Gavin have more value to us than what we could get back in trade right now. AV seems like he’s going to be a fairly solid high floor/low ceiling 20 homer, 30 double, .750 OPSish player. We have seen enough to know what he probably is over four years, and it’s ok, not great. He doesn’t seem to make adjustments, especially to offspeed pitches, Gavin is more of a wildcard, I feel like he could have better OPS and SLG potential if he is more aggressive early in the count. He takes way too many strikes early in the count. He could be better than AV, but he also could be far worse. His walk rate this year is very encouraging. I don’t want either to lose time to a Jose Abreu curtain call. We need them each to have as many ABs as possible so we can get a sense of which is the better starting player. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said: AV and Gavin have more value to us than what we could get back in trade right now. AV seems like he’s going to be a fairly solid high floor/low ceiling 20 homer, 30 double, .750 OPSish player. We have seen enough to know what he probably is over four years, and it’s ok, not great. He doesn’t seem to make adjustments, especially to offspeed pitches, Gavin is more of a wildcard, I feel like he could have better OPS and SLG potential if he is more aggressive early in the count. He takes way too many strikes early in the count. He could be better than AV, but he also could be far worse. His walk rate this year is very encouraging. I don’t want either to lose time to a Jose Abreu curtain call. We need them each to have as many ABs as possible so we can get a sense of which is the better starting player. Andrew Vaughn has negative fWAR for his career. Nothing about him screams "high floor". A 750 OPS going forward would mean a replacement level player or .5 fWAR at best. I'm glad he's hot, but he needs to hit ALOT to matter. Not a 750 OPS, but like an 850 OPS. That would be a solid regular at 1B. Not only is he "just" a 1B, he's by many metrics a bottom 5 or even league worst defensive 1B. He has no range, he's 5-10 in cleats, and his reflexes are poor. He needs to hit, and hit a lot. Edited June 17 by chitownsportsfan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: Andrew Vaughn has negative fWAR for his career. Nothing about him screams "high floor". A 750 OPS going forward would mean a replacement level player or .5 fWAR at best. I'm glad he's hot, but he needs to hit ALOT to matter. Not a 750 OPS, but like an 850 OPS. That would be a solid regular at 1B. Not only is he "just" a 1B, he's by many metrics a bottom 5 or even league worst defensive 1B. He has no range, he's 5-10 in cleats, and his reflexes are poor. He needs to hit, and hit a lot. Is career fWAR really the best metric to evaluate a 1b who has played a ton of RF and DH? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 6 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said: Is career fWAR really the best metric to evaluate a 1b who has played a ton of RF and DH? How about the eye test? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Regarding .850 OPS is the benchmark for being solid, there seem to be only a handful of 1b who have averaged that over the last 10 years. Seems more like an elite OPS for that position these days, whereas .830-.840 would comfortably put you in the top half or top ten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 16 minutes ago, T R U said: How about the eye test? Eye test recently says he’s 1.000+ OPS player ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcq Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 From #3 pick to zero WAR in five years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 (edited) 15 minutes ago, pcq said: From #3 pick to zero WAR in five years. See Torkelson, too...so many questions about aluminum bats and why a plethora of homers are flying out in all directions at the top of the draft with the big time hitters. Be wary. Keep building up that internal depth of players who profile at SS and CF in the big leagues. Elite Pitching is always going to be a need with a team so a verse now to extensions and expensive prime years FAs. Edited June 17 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said: Is career fWAR really the best metric to evaluate a 1b who has played a ton of RF and DH? Should we talk about his career RC+ of 102 as a 1B? How about his career .727 OPS? He's a mediocre bat and a below average 1B by pretty much any measure. He's also one who is in his arb years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Should we talk about his career RC+ of 102 as a 1B? How about his career .727 OPS? He's a mediocre bat and a below average 1B by pretty much any measure. He's also one who is in his arb years. Yes, but we should also acknowledge that he’s barely 26 and played 0 games in the minor leagues, and i think that should have some bearing on how we evaluate him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Just now, Greg Hibbard said: Yes, but we should also acknowledge that he’s barely 26 and played 0 games in the minor leagues, and i think that should have some bearing on how we evaluate him. That mattered years ago. He is quickly pushing in on 2000 PAs and 3.5 years of MLB experience. Sure we all hope is hot streak is something, but odds aren't looking good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 3 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said: Eye test recently says he’s 1.000+ OPS player ? Yes, “recently” lol You also said his floor is 30 doubles 20 HRs and a .750 OPS when in 3.5 years thats more like his ceiling than his floor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 2 hours ago, T R U said: Yes, “recently” lol You also said his floor is 30 doubles 20 HRs and a .750 OPS when in 3.5 years thats more like his ceiling than his floor. I half disagree. I think his floor is what he’s already done in the majors. He averages 31 doubles and 21 homers per 162, and he’s played every game but 15 since the beginning of 2023. He’s healthy, which is more than we can say for almost every other person on this team. I suppose 20 points higher on the OPS ticker was exaggerating his current resume a bit, but isn’t too off of what I think his ceiling is. I think he could be a .780-.800 OPS player but not better than that. He doesn’t walk enough and he doesn’t hit for average enough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 7 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said: I half disagree. I think his floor is what he’s already done in the majors. He averages 31 doubles and 21 homers per 162, and he’s played every game but 15 since the beginning of 2023. He’s healthy, which is more than we can say for almost every other person on this team. I suppose 20 points higher on the OPS ticker was exaggerating his current resume a bit, but isn’t too off of what I think his ceiling is. I think he could be a .780-.800 OPS player but not better than that. He doesn’t walk enough and he doesn’t hit for average enough. If he plays 162 games, yes he will hit 30 doubles and 20 HR's. That's not going to happen though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 46 minutes ago, T R U said: If he plays 162 games, yes he will hit 30 doubles and 20 HR's. That's not going to happen though. Are you saying he's not going to play 162 games, or he's not going to hit 30/20? Vaughn punted the first 3-1/2 weeks of the season, and with 2 weeks left in June, has 13 doubles and 9 HRs. If his slump isn't his new normal, he certainly looks like he can hit 30 2Bs and 20 HRs in 2024. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FT35 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 He meets the Sox profile for a signing: Old, washed, DH-type, historical White Sox ties, completely lost the ability to hit, recently cut by a sub-.500 team, not picked up by any other MLB team. I like the guy. Not saying he couldn’t miraculously figure things out and produce some unmeaningful stats again for a bit. Just saying he meets the profile. If he appears anywhere on any KC Royals marketing material (background included), I think the Sox sign him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 1 hour ago, WestEddy said: Are you saying he's not going to play 162 games, or he's not going to hit 30/20? Vaughn punted the first 3-1/2 weeks of the season, and with 2 weeks left in June, has 13 doubles and 9 HRs. If his slump isn't his new normal, he certainly looks like he can hit 30 2Bs and 20 HRs in 2024. Hes not going to play 162 games. The avgs of 30 doubles and 20 HR's is based off playing 162 games. Obviously, he is capable of reaching those numbers without playing a full slate but when using that as evidence that its his floor, its kind of flawed because even if fully healthy he wouldn't be playing all 162 games. It just doesn't happen anymore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 2 hours ago, T R U said: Hes not going to play 162 games. The avgs of 30 doubles and 20 HR's is based off playing 162 games. Obviously, he is capable of reaching those numbers without playing a full slate but when using that as evidence that its his floor, its kind of flawed because even if fully healthy he wouldn't be playing all 162 games. It just doesn't happen anymore. He played 152 of 162 games last year, and on 162 he currently averages 31 and 21. I’m happy to adjust his production to 93.8% of the 162 numbers, so 29 doubles and 20 homers. Is that better? He has played 67 of the Sox’ 73 games (91%) so if he plays 147 of the 162 games his current pace is…. 28.5 doubles and 20 home runs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 5 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said: He played 152 of 162 games last year, and on 162 he currently averages 31 and 21. I’m happy to adjust his production to 93.8% of the 162 numbers, so 29 doubles and 20 homers. Is that better? He has played 67 of the Sox’ 73 games (91%) so if he plays 147 of the 162 games his current pace is…. 28.5 doubles and 20 home runs. So, not 30/20 then? ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 2 minutes ago, Milkman delivers said: So, not 30/20 then? ? Sir, if you save a dollar a day for a billion days, you are a billionaire. Save a buck today and you are on pace! I shall now consider you a billionaire 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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