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Dodgers interested in Robert, Crochet, Pham


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34 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Injuries themselves are not predictive to the point of being projectable, meaning they're just noise and each opinion is as good as the next.

I'd actually argue his prior IP is a good thing. I've used this example a few times here already, but it's what I loved about wheeler going into FA. Limited innings and a TJ out of the way is a damn good thing. Wheeler was always hurt in his early 20s and never hurt in his 30s.

Crochet has never been hurt because of endurance issues. There's no prior history of durability challenges caused by usage. To me that means there's nothing to substantiate the idea that his arm is at risk any more than the next guy as innings go up.

Limiting innings has promoted effort increases. They're directly correlated. Garrett has a lot of innings left on that arm.

If you are looking for something that predicts 100% it will always happen, you will never find it in relation to the human body. It is just too variable.

However, you are wrong that one opinon is just as good as the next. Research has shown that a previous injury predict around 81% of the time another injury will occur. With Crochet,  he had a shoulder injury followed up by a UCL. The prediction was 100% accurate.  

Research as also shown that as a pitcher increases the volume the likelihood of injury also increases. Is it 100%? No, buts it's a significant risk. Does smoking cause cancer 100% of the time? No, but is a significant risk.

Now you can guess all you want but the daya shows the risk/likelihood. If you were going to sink 10s of miilions of dollars into an a pitcher that has this history and has had the wear this year that has never been done before?

As I said previously, you may be right but you are taking an awful major risk. 

Edited by ptatc
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4 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Better question: how much is Jerry willing to pay?

We know Jerry isn't going deep.  But I am curious how far people are willing to go, because it is one thing to say it, but it is another to put together something that matches said unicorn status.

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Out of curiosity, how much are you willing to pay to extend him?

Market value. Sox have nothing on the book. 

I'd give him a 6 year extension, buy out 4 FA years with a team option on 7.

Give him 120 for the FA years with 30 mill option and projected Arb numbers for next two. Basically values out around the rodon contract.

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26 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I would laugh in every gms face if they tried to talk down Crochet.

He's a unicorn and everyone knows it. You're getting him for 2 1/2 years too. He could be the best pitcher, or top 3 on the less optimistic side, in baseball next year; only thing holding him back this year is innings. 

Crochet will continue to develop, would bet another pitch makes it's way into the arsenal at some point. 

People don't know he's a unicorn. He's shown half a season of injury free success. If he stays injury free until the end if next season, I'll give it to you. The telltale sign is if this season doesn't cause issues next season.

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Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Market value. Sox have nothing on the book. 

I'd give him a 6 year extension, buy out 4 FA years with a team option on 7.

Give him 120 for the FA years with 30 mill option and projected Arb numbers for next two. Basically values out around the rodon contract.

Thinking through that, let's call it $5/$15 in the next two seasons, so we are talking like 6/150ish by the time buyouts are established.  That is at least realistic.

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4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Market value. Sox have nothing on the book. 

I'd give him a 6 year extension, buy out 4 FA years with a team option on 7.

Give him 120 for the FA years with 30 mill option and projected Arb numbers for next two. Basically values out around the rodon contract.

It would awesome to extend Crochet and see the Sox form a nasty chimera of left handed starting pitchers in Crochet, Schultz, and the new kid they just drafted top 5. 

Let's bring hope back to the South Side! 

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3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

If you are looking for something that predicts 100% it will always happen, you will never find it in relation to the human body. It is just too variable.

We also know that increasi

However, you are wrong that one option is just as good as the next. Research has shown that a previous injury predict around 81% of the time another injury will occur. With Crochet,  he had a shoulder injury followed up by a UCL. The prediction was 100% accurate.  

Research as also shown that as a pitcher increases the volume the likelihood of injury also increases. Is it 100%? No, buts it's a significant risk. Does smoking cause cancer 100% of the time? No, but is a significant risk.

Now you can guess all you want but the daya shows the risk/likelihood. If you were going to sink 10s of miilions of dollars into an a pitcher that has this history and has had the wear this year that has never been done before?

As I said previously, you may be right but you are taking an awful major risk. 

Every pitcher has missed time for something at this point so that stat is pretty misleading imo.

What is the injury percentage to start with? If you're saying any arm injury during a career as a pitcher, it's gotta be in the 70s at this point. So is reoccurrence even increased over initial injury rates?

Arms can either handle the strain or they can't. It's an unnatural motion. I will forever believe, barring analysis to the contrary, that some can handle it and some can't and beyond that it's just year to year noise.

Imo, we don't know if crochet can handle it or not as he's a completely different pitcher with different mechanics, and a different build. He's just as likely as the next guy. Are you arguing there's degrees of probability? Id certainly love to see the breakdown. 

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56 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Probably not, but he has as recently as last year. And all you are going to get for Pham is a lottery ticket.

His fielding at a premium position ,speed , walk rate, base running ,power and years of control are all positives which is why he had 4 WAR last year. Doesn't have pedigree but has a history of making adjustments to improve. Has he reached the peak of what he can do and the league adjusted, sophomore slump , can he re adjust ?

Sox real low on CF choices and  good OF defense ,LH power and speed if Robert goes. Everyone's always been pretty quick to write him off because of age and lack of pedigree. But he's obviously worked very hard to become better and is very athletic. He's better than Colas. Once Sox coaches got a hold on Colas he lost all his power .

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2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Every pitcher has missed time for something at this point so that stat is pretty misleading imo.

What is the injury percentage to start with? If you're saying any arm injury during a career as a pitcher, it's gotta be in the 70s at this point. So is reoccurrence even increased over initial injury rates?

Arms can either handle the strain or they can't. It's an unnatural motion. I will forever believe, barring analysis to the contrary, that some can handle it and some can't and beyond that it's just year to year noise.

Imo, we don't know if crochet can handle it or not as he's a completely different pitcher with different mechanics, and a different build. He's just as likely as the next guy. Are you arguing there's degrees of probability? Id certainly love to see the breakdown. 

We aren't talking some missed time. It is significant time/surgery.

There is definitely an increased probability.  As I said 81% of the time they will have another significant injury.  Crochet has already proven it correct when he had to be shutdown with a shoulder injury then had to miss an entire year with a UCL reconstruction.  These were not "everybody misses time" injuries.

Go ahead and take the chance. The risk profile, onjry history, volume usage says you're wrong. 

Again, nothing is 100%. The body just doesn't work that way. As you said some pitchers can handle it, others can't. I agree. However Crochet's profile and his usage this year really elevates that risk. Paying him for 6 years is a massive risk. Might work out, might not. Nothing is guaranteed but it's a massive risk despite his half season of durability and success.

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14 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

It would awesome to extend Crochet and see the Sox form a nasty chimera of left handed starting pitchers in Crochet, Schultz, and the new kid they just drafted top 5. 

Let's bring hope back to the South Side! 

I'd love it. This team could have a real nice staff too. Not sure where the runs will come from, but they've got some great arm talent. Let garrett anchor it.

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22 minutes ago, ptatc said:

People don't know he's a unicorn. He's shown half a season of injury free success. If he stays injury free until the end if next season, I'll give it to you. The telltale sign is if this season doesn't cause issues next season.

He's not having success. Thats understating it. He's doing things that only 5 guys in the past 25 years have done. 

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17 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

It would awesome to extend Crochet and see the Sox form a nasty chimera of left handed starting pitchers in Crochet, Schultz, and the new kid they just drafted top 5. 

Let's bring hope back to the South Side! 

Can just sign him when he's a free agent and do that anyway.

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

He's not having success. Thats understating it. He's doing things that only 5 guys in the past 25 years have done. 

I'd be interested in knowing which 5 guys and what is Crochet doing what they have done and for how long did they do whatever they did compared to Crochet. You get me ? I'm skeptical unless you put it to the test and see wtf you're talking about respectfully.

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2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I've seen this proposed across baseball many times yet I don't think I've seen it happen more than maybe once; if at all.

Rare, but not as rare as Jerry Reinsdorf signing players at market value I guess haha

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14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'd be interested in knowing which 5 guys and what is Crochet doing what they have done and for how long did they do whatever they did compared to Crochet. You get me ? I'm skeptical unless you put it to the test and see wtf you're talking about respectfully.

I posted it in another thread a couple weeks back. I'm on mobile so will try to recall. 

Crochet the 2nd highest k rate. He's only pitcher with k rate over 12 per 9 and a walk rate under 2. Also only with 11+ ks and a walk rate under 2. Lowest FIP.

This is with any starter with 100 or more IPs in the past 25 years. He's got the number one k/bb %, besting spencer strider. 

Garrett crochet is a unicorn . 

Jose Fernandez, chris sale, Jacob degrom, and Spencer strider. That's the crochet company in k to bb which normalizes faster than most metrics. 

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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20 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

He's not having success. Thats understating it. He's doing things that only 5 guys in the past 25 years have done. 

But only for half year. There is no denying he is having success. The question is can he continue to do it. That is the risk. This is what GMs need to decide if giving up significant capital is worth it to acquire.

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4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

But only for half year. There is no denying he is having success. The question is can he continue to do it. That is the risk. This is what GMs need to decide if giving up significant capital is worth it to acquire.

Tyler glasnow just got 140 million. In 8 years prior he threw 530 innings topping out at 120. Anyone who questions crochet value to the Sox can point to the 30 year old injury risk who just got 140 million.

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5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Which is? Half year of success?

...And Kerry Wood's 20 strikeout game was just a single game. Big whoop. 

A half season of dominance is still wondrous to watch. We don't have to pretend that what Crochet is doing is really no big deal, just to be obstinate and win an argument. It's a silly look. 

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7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I posted it in another thread a couple weeks back. I'm on mobile so will try to recall. 

Crochet the 2nd highest k rate. He's only pitcher with k rate over 12 per 9 and a walk rate under 2. Also only with 11+ ks and a walk rate under 2. Lowest FIP.

This is with any starter with 100 or more IPs in the past 25 years. He's got the number one k/bb %, besting spencer strider. 

Garrett crochet is a unicorn . 

Jose Fernandez, chris sale, Jacob degrom, and Spencer strider. That's the crochet company in k to bb which normalizes faster than most metrics. 

Let's take a look at the injury history of these pitchers. Sale and deGrom with missed very significant time with injuries. Currently strider has pitched poorly this year and is out with an elbow injury.

So if we look at the history of these pitchers who accomplished these feats,  they are uncorn in talent but pretty much guaranteed to have injury riddled careers. Do you want to give these pitchers 6 year deals?

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3 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

...And Kerry Wood's 20 strikeout game was just a single game. Big whoop. 

A half season of dominance is still wondrous to watch. We don't have to pretend that what Crochet is doing is really no big deal, just to be obstinate and win an argument. It's a silly look. 

You are lecturing a guy on injuries, injury history,  and injury prediction who does this professionally and knows WAY more than all of the rest of Soxtalk combined on this topic.

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