NIL impact on draft going forward/changes

[BamaDoc]

First, I understand the money spent on the draft by MLB is part of the collective bargaining agreement with the MLBPA.  Listening to Shirley discuss the draft, he was clearly frustrated by how NIL was impacting what HS and college players were asking for.  There is a high bust rate on draft picks and this year there was a lot of talk of getting higher draftees at discounts.  Many picks in rounds 5-10 were to save money involving seniors with no leverage and less chance to actually succeed..  With these data points, is there any chance the structure of the draft changes to compete with NIL?  I could see taking some money from higher picks and spreading it down to lower rounds in the top ten rounds?  Second, any talk of firmer payments via slot more like NFL.   Finally, do they need to raise from 150k to 200 or 250 in rounds 11-20 before it counts against your pool?  Any of the guys with connections hearing anything? Jimmy Harold others?

[Y2Jimmy0]

4 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

First, I understand the money spent on the draft by MLB is part of the collective bargaining agreement with the MLBPA.  Listening to Shirley discuss the draft, he was clearly frustrated by how NIL was impacting what HS and college players were asking for.  There is a high bust rate on draft picks and this year there was a lot of talk of getting higher draftees at discounts.  Many picks in rounds 5-10 were to save money involving seniors with no leverage and less chance to actually succeed..  With these data points, is there any chance the structure of the draft changes to compete with NIL?  I could see taking some money from higher picks and spreading it down to lower rounds in the top ten rounds?  Second, any talk of firmer payments via slot more like NFL.   Finally, do they need to raise from 150k to 200 or 250 in rounds 11-20 before it counts against your pool?  Any of the guys with connections hearing anything? Jimmy Harold others?

I think increasing $$ allotted for day 3 could help. Most of these kids turning down money are making short-sighted decisions. It’s generally better to start a pro career and get to that potential 1st contract sooner. 

[Timmy U]

14 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I think increasing $$ allotted for day 3 could help. Most of these kids turning down money are making short-sighted decisions. It’s generally better to start a pro career and get to that potential 1st contract sooner. 

I agree, for the people who actually make the majors. But Day 2 and 3 players become the underpaid career minor leaguers that we’ve seen lawsuits about. You can understand why potential 14th rounders may want to postpone their bus rides, get a degree they will most likely need, and enjoy some NIL money, even if it reduces their already slim chances of making the majors.  It’s like the rest of the pay scale in baseball: things are fine for the stars, maybe not so great for the rank and file.  They may have to significantly increase those day three slots or go to a hockey-style agreement with the NCAA, where they can codevelop previously drafted players while they still play in college. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 hour ago, Timmy U said:

I agree, for the people who actually make the majors. But Day 2 and 3 players become the underpaid career minor leaguers that we’ve seen lawsuits about. You can understand why potential 14th rounders may want to postpone their bus rides, get a degree they will most likely need, and enjoy some NIL money, even if it reduces their already slim chances of making the majors.  It’s like the rest of the pay scale in baseball: things are fine for the stars, maybe not so great for the rank and file.  They may have to significantly increase those day three slots or go to a hockey-style agreement with the NCAA, where they can codevelop previously drafted players while they still play in college. 

These guys get old and ultimately have to take like $10K in the draft though. MLB isn’t going to wait. 

[bmags]

I kind of think it may be frustrated but in the long view I’d imagine baseball would rather more go to college programs.

For one, they’ve become great at developing their talent. The players aren’t forced to go there, and some are getting good cash to stay.

I think of someone like Skenes, and find it hard to believe he’d be in majors right now if he went out of high school. He’d probably have only topped 40 innings last year in this absurd holding back of pitchers.

[bmags]

(Not that he’d never make majors, but at this age that he’d be here dominating)

[ptatc]

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

I kind of think it may be frustrated but in the long view I’d imagine baseball would rather more go to college programs.

For one, they’ve become great at developing their talent. The players aren’t forced to go there, and some are getting good cash to stay.

I think of someone like Skenes, and find it hard to believe he’d be in majors right now if he went out of high school. He’d probably have only topped 40 innings last year in this absurd holding back of pitchers.

The more money they need to hand the pitchers before they even pitch , the more conservative the clubs are going to be to protect the investment.  

Coming out of high school, it just depends on what their workload was. Someone like Schultz will be built up ti starters innings by the time he reaches the MLB. Lesser talents will spend more time in the minors and have plenty of time to build up the innings.

Edited July 20 by ptatc

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

I kind of think it may be frustrated but in the long view I’d imagine baseball would rather more go to college programs.

For one, they’ve become great at developing their talent. The players aren’t forced to go there, and some are getting good cash to stay.

I think of someone like Skenes, and find it hard to believe he’d be in majors right now if he went out of high school. He’d probably have only topped 40 innings last year in this absurd holding back of pitchers.

Skenes is absolutely the exception though. In this draft alone there are multiple instances: Andrew Dutkanych, Gage Jump and Thatcher Hurd all turned down millions out of HS. So did Arkansas 2B Peyton Stovall. If someone is offering you millions to play baseball, take it in the vast majority of cases. 

[bmags]

18 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Skenes is absolutely the exception though. In this draft alone there are multiple instances: Andrew Dutkanych, Gage Jump and Thatcher Hurd all turned down millions out of HS. So did Arkansas 2B Peyton Stovall. If someone is offering you millions to play baseball, take it in the vast majority of cases. 

Ok you are saying these particular players didn’t maximize their earnings immediately. But is an MLB scouting director worse off that he gets to take Stovall after seeing him three years at Arkansas, which does a pretty damn good job developing, and seeing his weaknesses and strengths develop rather than paying him $2.1 out of high school?

Id say no it’s a benefit.
 

As for players getting hurt by it, we don’t know how much Stovall got paid during his years, it was unlikely $1.4 million, but was probably significant. The difference may not be as much of a gamble as $2.1 mill vs nothing. It’s 4th round slot ($650ish) + NIL. And three years as a baseball player in college rather than some podunk town.

it all seems like it’s working fine for everyone. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

Are that many baseball players really getting NIL $? I’m sure the top guys in the draft are getting paid, but is a 3rd rounder from a non SEC school really getting paid any kind of significant $ through NIL that it’s affecting their future decision making? 
 

Maybe I’m way off, but it just feels like college baseball is such an after thought that it’s hard to imagine a ton of NIL $ being pumped in outside of maybe like 10-15 schools 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

33 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Are that many baseball players really getting NIL $? I’m sure the top guys in the draft are getting paid, but is a 3rd rounder from a non SEC school really getting paid any kind of significant $ through NIL that it’s affecting their future decision making? 
 

Maybe I’m way off, but it just feels like college baseball is such an after thought that it’s hard to imagine a ton of NIL $ being pumped in outside of maybe like 10-15 schools 

That was my question too.

[Y2Jimmy0]

55 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Are that many baseball players really getting NIL $? I’m sure the top guys in the draft are getting paid, but is a 3rd rounder from a non SEC school really getting paid any kind of significant $ through NIL that it’s affecting their future decision making? 
 

Maybe I’m way off, but it just feels like college baseball is such an after thought that it’s hard to imagine a ton of NIL $ being pumped in outside of maybe like 10-15 schools 

 

21 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

That was my question too.

What is significant? It's enough to not take $150K on day three it seems. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Here's a story how NIL is affecting baseball.  Last year there was a pretty good D2 player and he deserved a chance to play at the next level. He was a senior so he would have been a late round pick and signed for about $20k.  He was offered something around $30k in NIL money from a power 5 team so he went there as a grad senior.  I guess he figured he'd double up a signing bonus.  Well he got off to a slow start and was buried in the bullpen and threw about 10 innings.  The coach didn't care because he's only interested in winning games and he wasn't helping him win games and he's only out a one year roster spot and some booster money.

This is what people mean when they say players have to decide if they want a check or a career.  If he signed with a pro team he wouldn't get buried because of a slow start.  He'd be right back out there again for his next turn and if he was bad again he would be pulled aside for some side work and he'd be right back out there again because minor league coaches don't  get paid to win games.  They get paid to develop baseball players.  Pro teams are in for the long haul and players have to realize that.  

  

[Y2Jimmy0]

8 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Here's a story how NIL is affecting baseball.  Last year there was a pretty good D2 player and he deserved a chance to play at the next level. He was a senior so he would have been a late round pick and signed for about $20k.  He was offered something around $30k in NIL money from a power 5 team so he went there as a grad senior.  I guess he figured he'd double up a signing bonus.  Well he got off to a slow start and was buried in the bullpen and threw about 10 innings.  The coach didn't care because he's only interested in winning games and he wasn't helping him win games and he's only out a one year roster spot and some booster money.

This is what people mean when they say players have to decide if they want a check or a career.  If he signed with a pro team he wouldn't get buried because of a slow start.  He'd be right back out there again for his next turn and if he was bad again he would be pulled aside for some side work and he'd be right back out there again because minor league coaches don't  get paid to win games.  They get paid to develop baseball players.  Pro teams are in for the long haul and players have to realize that.  

  

This is a great example. 

[southsider2k5]

15 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Here's a story how NIL is affecting baseball.  Last year there was a pretty good D2 player and he deserved a chance to play at the next level. He was a senior so he would have been a late round pick and signed for about $20k.  He was offered something around $30k in NIL money from a power 5 team so he went there as a grad senior.  I guess he figured he'd double up a signing bonus.  Well he got off to a slow start and was buried in the bullpen and threw about 10 innings.  The coach didn't care because he's only interested in winning games and he wasn't helping him win games and he's only out a one year roster spot and some booster money.

This is what people mean when they say players have to decide if they want a check or a career.  If he signed with a pro team he wouldn't get buried because of a slow start.  He'd be right back out there again for his next turn and if he was bad again he would be pulled aside for some side work and he'd be right back out there again because minor league coaches don't  get paid to win games.  They get paid to develop baseball players.  Pro teams are in for the long haul and players have to realize that.  

  

So if he wasn't good enough for pro ball after the one year, how is it that he would have been fine in pro ball the previous year?

[GreenSox]

Are college baseball players really getting 6 figure money?  it's just not that lucrative of a sport. Even the football numbers have been exaggerated, although there's never been any affirmative proof of those either.

Regardless, any premium in high school players will likely evaporate.  Shirley said in his interview that they didn't really know how to evaluate college hitters:  he better learn quickly.

[Y2Jimmy0]

25 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Are college baseball players really getting 6 figure money?  it's just not that lucrative of a sport. Even the football numbers have been exaggerated, although there's never been any affirmative proof of those either.

Regardless, any premium in high school players will likely evaporate.  Shirley said in his interview that they didn't really know how to evaluate college hitters:  he better learn quickly.

Where did he say this? I was on every conference call 

[GreenSox]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Where did he say this? I was on every conference call 

i thought I read it in one of FS articles. (maybe it wasn't you).  Maybe I misread it.  Maybe I can find it.

My surmise also is that Smith was a late audible called from on high.

Edited July 22 by GreenSox

[champagne030]

4 hours ago, GreenSox said:

Are college baseball players really getting 6 figure money?  it's just not that lucrative of a sport. Even the football numbers have been exaggerated, although there's never been any affirmative proof of those either.

Regardless, any premium in high school players will likely evaporate.  Shirley said in his interview that they didn't really know how to evaluate college hitters:  he better learn quickly.

Yes.  Burns put himself on the auction block last year and wanted $1M to transfer.  Wake ponied up and he transferred.  And then he got over $9M in a signing bonus for being drafted #2.  I'd bet on myself all day if I wasn't a top pick.  I'd rather collect some $ and go to Wake than spend 3 years tooling around in Akron for the Guardians.

[bmags]

It’s not about college players being lucrative, it’s about boosters with a lot of car dealer-…er money that like to spend on college athletics.