Jake Burger trade

[FloydBannister1983]

On 8/21/2024 at 12:46 PM, JoeC said:

 

Once you've read the threads you want, there's a "mark as read" button in the top-right.

Cough … sarcasm …. Cough

[46DidIt]

On 8/21/2024 at 1:32 PM, wrathofhahn said:

 

How valuable do you think Burger would be if he were traded in the upcoming offseason? Burger's only position of WAR value is third base, but he performs it so poorly defensively that you should constantly look to upgrade.

If not, he is roughly a 730 to 770 OPS DH. In today's MLB, those are not particularly valuable. From my perspective we sold high even if the trade doesn't work out we should be doing more of these moves in the hopes 1 or 2 guys hit because the upside of Jake Eder before his injury was a front line starter

 

Burger has a career .800 OPS.

Eder was never ranked that high as a prospect, ever, not sure where you are getting that from. He has pretty much always been the definition of a B-, back of rotation ceiling type prospect

 

[JoeC]

24 minutes ago, FloydBannister1983 said:

Cough … sarcasm …. Cough

I sit in the box.... I feel shame.

[caulfield12]

Burger 68 career homers

Eloy 94

Yoan Moncada 93 

Sox money allocated to each player respectively?

[oldsox]

2 hours ago, 46DidIt said:

Burger has a career .800 OPS.

Eder was never ranked that high as a prospect, ever, not sure where you are getting that from. He has pretty much always been the definition of a B-, back of rotation ceiling type prospect

 

Eder was shoved down the throats of Sox Brass.  Good comment, 46.

[caulfield12]

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/210159/prospects/

 

Eder peaked as the #5-7 prospect on the Marlins but never a consensus Top 100 MiLB prospect.

[PaleAleSox]

30 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Burger 68 career homers

Eloy 94

Yoan Moncada 93 

Sox money allocated to each player respectively?

I mean it was dumb to pay Eloy and Moncada but not paying Burger wasn't dumb. It didn't look like he was ever going to play again for like 2-3 years before he ever made it to the MLB.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, PaleAleSox said:

I mean it was dumb to pay Eloy and Moncada but not paying Burger wasn't dumb. It didn't look like he was ever going to play again for like 2-3 years before he ever made it to the MLB.

Sure, they gave up on him.

But they should have realized Moncada was already a sunk cost based on his track record.

They still could have given him plenty of time at DH based on his 2023 performance alone...but the weird fascination with Sheets somehow prevailed for what reason looks at fangraphs or the back of Gavin's baseball card?

 

Burger was one of the few players last year producing surplus value for the Sox.

The best example this year in Crochet will also likely be traded for a 25-50% discount if they force Benintendi's remaining contract into the deal.

Turning assets into Vargas'es.

Leaving Las (Lost) Vargas.

Edited August 22 by caulfield12

[WhiteSox2023]

46 minutes ago, PaleAleSox said:

I mean it was dumb to pay Eloy and Moncada but not paying Burger wasn't dumb. It didn't look like he was ever going to play again for like 2-3 years before he ever made it to the MLB.

But then he surprisingly broke out with the Sox, and they still hadn’t paid him yet, nor did they have to.  Isn’t that the ideal situation, after seeing Eloy and Moncada get lazy and injured for most of the rest of their overpaid Sox careers?

[wrathofhahn]

5 hours ago, 46DidIt said:

Burger has a career .800 OPS.

Eder was never ranked that high as a prospect, ever, not sure where you are getting that from. He has pretty much always been the definition of a B-, back of rotation ceiling type prospect

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/7476-jake-eder/

Scouting Report: Before his injury, Eder's stuff placed him among the game's best pitching prospects.

https://www.mlb.com/stories/jake-eder-671109

After rocking a 93-96 mph fastball that peaked at 98 with riding action before his elbow reconstruction, Eder pitched more at 90-93 last season and is sitting at 92-94 this year. He has regained the power on his mid-80s slider, which lacks consistency but can be a plus offering with two-plane depth and horizontal action when he stayed on top of it. He has added a low-80s curveball that can miss bats when he lands it in the strike zone, but his mid-80s changeup has gotten firmer and less lively.

Eder had a history of inconsistent control and command before dominating in his pro debut, and Chicago is trying to help him regain the delivery he maintained in 2021. If he can repeat his three-quarters arm slot on a regular basis and recapture the stuff he had three years ago, he might be a No. 2 starter. This season, he has looked more like a guy who'll have to be a reliever who relies on his breaking pitches.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

62. Jake Eder, SP, MIA

Before he got hurt, there were folks in baseball who considered him a top 30 prospect, so his ceiling is big enough to include him on the top 100 now even though he’s coming off injury.

The average DH is about.750, so finding those hitters should not be too difficult. Burger is a little bit better than that, though. We lionize guys like Burger because we are bad at finding those guys, but every year there are guys off the scrap heap who can hit and give you positional versatility at 750 or so OPS.

Even though I would not have wanted to trade him for nothing, I think we should take advantage of the opportunity to acquire a top prospect who has recently returned from injury. Eder was not just a back-end starter before getting hurt; he had front-line stuff. If Eder managed to return to his former form, nobody would be posting about Burger.

We attempted a trade with a high ceiling but were unsuccessful. it happens. A soft-tossing MILB pitcher with a 4-5 starter ceiling is not someone I would much rather take a chance on; even if is what Eder turned into after returning, which is unfortunate but sometimes happens. Still, it was a risk that was worthwhile. TJS is a risk some guys come back throwing even harder other guys are never the same.

Edited August 23 by wrathofhahn

[WhiteSox2023]

24 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/7476-jake-eder/

Scouting Report: Before his injury, Eder's stuff placed him among the game's best pitching prospects.

https://www.mlb.com/stories/jake-eder-671109

After rocking a 93-96 mph fastball that peaked at 98 with riding action before his elbow reconstruction, Eder pitched more at 90-93 last season and is sitting at 92-94 this year. He has regained the power on his mid-80s slider, which lacks consistency but can be a plus offering with two-plane depth and horizontal action when he stayed on top of it. He has added a low-80s curveball that can miss bats when he lands it in the strike zone, but his mid-80s changeup has gotten firmer and less lively.

Eder had a history of inconsistent control and command before dominating in his pro debut, and Chicago is trying to help him regain the delivery he maintained in 2021. If he can repeat his three-quarters arm slot on a regular basis and recapture the stuff he had three years ago, he might be a No. 2 starter. This season, he has looked more like a guy who'll have to be a reliever who relies on his breaking pitches.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

62. Jake Eder, SP, MIA

Before he got hurt, there were folks in baseball who considered him a top 30 prospect, so his ceiling is big enough to include him on the top 100 now even though he’s coming off injury.

The average DH is about.750, so finding those hitters should not be too difficult. Burger is a little bit better than that, though. The problem is we do so we lionize someone like Burger but every year there are guys off the scrap heap that can hit and offer you positional versatility at 750 ish ops.

Though I would not have wanted to trade him for nothing, to me have to seize the chance to acquire a top prospect who has just returned from an injury. No one would be posting about Burger if Eder returned to form

A little bit better than that?  Burger is an .800 OPS DH.  .050 points better in OPS is a big difference from .750.  Keep trying to minimize it.  The Sox can’t even find a single player that can maintain a .700+ OPS, much less a .750 or god forbid an .800 OPS.  Our savior Eloy’s career OPS is .788.  Moncada is at .756 but at least he has a glove, oh wait, he can never stay on the field anyways.

Edited August 23 by WhiteSox2023

[wrathofhahn]

19 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

A little bit better than that?  Burger is an .800 OPS DH.  .050 points better in OPS is a big difference from .750.  Keep trying to minimize it.  The Sox can’t even find a single player that can maintain a .700+ OPS, much less a .750 or god forbid an .800 OPS.  Our savior Eloy’s career OPS is .788.  Moncada is at .756 but at least he has a glove, oh wait, he can never stay on the field anyways.

 

I am not minimizing anything he has played 103 games and accumulated less than 1 WAR and Marlins on are on pace to lose 105 games. He has some value but his loss is not worth crying over.

I'd make the trade 100 times out 100 to acquire a former top prospect coming off an injury. It sucks that Eder appears he won't be the same but you move on and try acquire the next high ceiling guy whose available

Edited August 23 by wrathofhahn

[caulfield12]

47 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/7476-jake-eder/

Scouting Report: Before his injury, Eder's stuff placed him among the game's best pitching prospects.

https://www.mlb.com/stories/jake-eder-671109

After rocking a 93-96 mph fastball that peaked at 98 with riding action before his elbow reconstruction, Eder pitched more at 90-93 last season and is sitting at 92-94 this year. He has regained the power on his mid-80s slider, which lacks consistency but can be a plus offering with two-plane depth and horizontal action when he stayed on top of it. He has added a low-80s curveball that can miss bats when he lands it in the strike zone, but his mid-80s changeup has gotten firmer and less lively.

Eder had a history of inconsistent control and command before dominating in his pro debut, and Chicago is trying to help him regain the delivery he maintained in 2021. If he can repeat his three-quarters arm slot on a regular basis and recapture the stuff he had three years ago, he might be a No. 2 starter. This season, he has looked more like a guy who'll have to be a reliever who relies on his breaking pitches.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

62. Jake Eder, SP, MIA

Before he got hurt, there were folks in baseball who considered him a top 30 prospect, so his ceiling is big enough to include him on the top 100 now even though he’s coming off injury.

The average DH is about.750, so finding those hitters should not be too difficult. Burger is a little bit better than that, though. We lionize guys like Burger because we are bad at finding those guys, but every year there are guys off the scrap heap who can hit and give you positional versatility at 750 or so OPS.

Even though I would not have wanted to trade him for nothing, I think we should take advantage of the opportunity to acquire a top prospect who has recently returned from injury. Eder was not just a back-end starter before getting hurt; he had front-line stuff. If Eder managed to return to his former form, nobody would be posting about Burger.

We attempted a trade with a high ceiling but were unsuccessful. it happens. A soft-tossing MILB pitcher with a 4-5 starter ceiling is not someone I would much rather take a chance on; even if is what Eder turned into after returning, which is unfortunate but sometimes happens. Still, it was a risk that was worthwhile. TJS is a risk some guys come back throwing even harder other guys are never the same.

Still think Baseball America and MLB/Pipeline are the two lists that MOST look to first.

As I said, it wasn't consensus across the industry by an stretch of the imagination.

FG is late to the prospect game, but they have their ardent believers, too.

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

I am not minimizing anything he has played 103 games and accumulated less than 1 WAR and Marlins on are on pace to lose 105 games. He has some value but his loss is not worth crying over.

I'd make the trade 100 times out 100 to acquire a former top prospect coming off an injury. It sucks that Eder appears he won't be the same but you move on and try acquire the next high ceiling guy whose available

But you are though.  Your own words…

”The average DH is about.750, so finding those hitters should not be too difficult. Burger is a little bit better than that, though.”

A .050 difference in OPS is not “a little bit better than .750.  An OPS that is .050 higher is a big difference.  And guess what?  It is difficult to find .800 OPS hitters!  As I already stated, Getz couldn’t even find one hitter than could maintain a .750+ OPS this season, and barely a .700+ OPS before he traded him (DeJong).

So now you have reverted to talking about Burger’s combined offensive and defensive WAR to prove why, a player that you described as a DH, is only worth 1 combined WAR.  By YOUR OWN description of Burger, he shouldn’t be playing the field and should be at DH.

Well, Burger’s fWAR on “offense only” is 6.2.  So if you only start Burger at DH, the role in which YOU described him as, he actually has a ton of value, as long as he isn’t playing the field or is very limited in that role, so his poor defense doesn’t completely cancel out his offensive output.

It’s completely obvious how biased your argument is.  You are looking for ways to make Burger look less valuable than he is.

On a competitive team, if Burger was employed as a DH only, and perhaps a part-time 1B, he would be incredibly valuable to that team.  Definitely more so than a bust pitching prospect that may never pitch in the big leagues.  Eder currently has a 6.56 ERA along with a 1.68 WHIP in 96 innings in AAA, and he’s turning 26 in just two months.  It was an absolutely horrendous trade…  period.

Edited August 23 by WhiteSox2023

[wrathofhahn]

11 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

But you are though.  Your own words…

”The average DH is about.750, so finding those hitters should not be too difficult. Burger is a little bit better than that, though.”

A .050 difference in OPS is not “a little bit better than .750.  An OPS that is .050 higher is a big difference.  And guess what?  It is difficult to find .800 OPS hitters!  As I already stated, Getz couldn’t even find one hitter than could maintain a .750+ OPS this season, and barely a .700+ OPS before he traded him (DeJong).

So now you have reverted to talking about Burger’s combined offensive and defensive WAR to prove why, a player that you described as a DH, is only worth 1 combined WAR.  By YOUR OWN description of Burger, he shouldn’t be playing the field and should be at DH.

Well, Burger’s fWAR on “offense only” is 6.2.  So if you only start Burger at DH, the role in which YOU described him as, he actually has a ton of value, as long as he isn’t playing the field or is very limited in that role, so his poor defense doesn’t completely cancel out his offensive output.

It’s completely obvious how biased your argument is.  You are looking for ways to make Burger look less valuable than he is.

On a competitive team, if Burger was employed as a DH only, and perhaps a part-time 1B, he would be incredibly valuable to that team.  Definitely more so than a bust pitching prospect that may never pitch in the big leagues.  Eder currently has a 6.56 ERA along with a 1.68 WHIP in 96 innings in AAA, and he’s turning 26 in just two months.  It was an absolutely horrendous trade…  period.

 

1. Approximately 50% of his games have been played at third base, and he has benefited from the positional adjustment. He just plays such terrible defense that it does not really help him.

2. What you quoted has nothing to do with WAR; his Fangraphs war is 1.5 largely due to the fact he played half his games at 3B and they are not as harsh on his defense as Bwar is. What you posted is his Offensive runs above average. Furthermore, it does not take defense into account or adjust for position.

Though I realize this is stating the obvious, you should have a better DH than a league average hitter.

3. You keep making false claims despite your accusations of bias. I am not biased; I believe he was a useful DH, but the fact that we struggle to identify talent and have players with negative WAR throughout the roster does not make him more valuable in a trade, even though some fans are biased in favor of keeping him.

To all others, he appears to be a streaky all or nothing, controllable hitter with no defense. You only need to look at the guys who get DFA'd annually to see that it is not worth much.

4. Ever since we traded for him, Eder has been awful. I am defending the process, not the outcome. The FO should make more of these kinds of moves rather than fewer because this team sucks and our farm sucks we should be focusing on upside rather than making safe trades for marginal prospects.

 

Edited August 23 by wrathofhahn

[kitekrazy]

12 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

 

I am not minimizing anything he has played 103 games and accumulated less than 1 WAR and Marlins on are on pace to lose 105 games. He has some value but his loss is not worth crying over.

I'd make the trade 100 times out 100 to acquire a former top prospect coming off an injury. It sucks that Eder appears he won't be the same but you move on and try acquire the next high ceiling guy whose available

Only if you are the Dodgers, Rays, Braves and they might do that trade 5 out of hindered .  This organization isn't known recently for taking another prospect and improving on their weakness.

They really didn't have a full time slot for him.

Edited August 23 by kitekrazy

[caulfield12]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&pos=dh
 

Burger, despite the oblique injury and rough start defensively would be worth around the #11 DH in baseball, probably at least 2 fWAR if playing there the full season.

So that’s out of 23 players.

And roughly 2 fWAR more than Sheets.

At least average gets you 2 more games closer to .500 and respectability…lineup protection for Robert, etc.  There are some spillover effects, certainly.  Less times the team is getting shut out, higher entertainment value for fans who enjoy his effort level compared to a Benintendi type, etc.

[Dick Allen]

It still amazes me how many can't look at this soon to be 26 year old with an ERA over 11.00 in AAA, and admit, they were wrong. It was a bad trade.

[almagest]

13 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It still amazes me how many can't look at this soon to be 26 year old with an ERA over 11.00 in AAA, and admit, they were wrong. It was a bad trade.

The trade rationale made sense at the time and the Sox should keep making trades like that. It's up to them to make sure the returns are successful.

Also, let's pump the brakes on declaring this a bad trade already. It's definitely been bad value since Burger started hitting again and Eder forgot how to pitch, but Burger wouldn't do much for this team other than bump them from "worst team of all time" to "worst team of all time, but like 1 more win". We'll see if it stays that way - if Eder can become at least a solid reliever he's worth way more to this team in the next couple years than a 30+ year old Burger. One tool guys don't often perform well post 30, especially given his injury history.

[Dick Allen]

12 minutes ago, almagest said:

The trade rationale made sense at the time and the Sox should keep making trades like that. It's up to them to make sure the returns are successful.

Also, let's pump the brakes on declaring this a bad trade already. It's definitely been bad value since Burger started hitting again and Eder forgot how to pitch, but Burger wouldn't do much for this team other than bump them from "worst team of all time" to "worst team of all time, but like 1 more win". We'll see if it stays that way - if Eder can become at least a solid reliever he's worth way more to this team in the next couple years than a 30+ year old Burger. One tool guys don't often perform well post 30, especially given his injury history.

i guess you're right. It also opened up a roster spot for Nick Senzel.

[WhiteSox2023]

13 minutes ago, almagest said:

The trade rationale made sense at the time and the Sox should keep making trades like that. It's up to them to make sure the returns are successful.

Also, let's pump the brakes on declaring this a bad trade already. It's definitely been bad value since Burger started hitting again and Eder forgot how to pitch, but Burger wouldn't do much for this team other than bump them from "worst team of all time" to "worst team of all time, but like 1 more win". We'll see if it stays that way - if Eder can become at least a solid reliever he's worth way more to this team in the next couple years than a 30+ year old Burger. One tool guys don't often perform well post 30, especially given his injury history.

No, the Sox should not keep making trades like this in which they poorly assessed the return and ultimately got robbed.

While Burger is going to put up around an .800 OPS and 30+ home runs last year and this year, Eder will finish with cumulative ERAs around 6.50 in the same back to back years.

At the end of the day, they got a garbage return for a player who had value.

Edited August 23 by WhiteSox2023

[almagest]

24 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

No, the Sox should not keep making trades like this in which they poorly assessed the return and ultimately got robbed.

While Burger is going to put up around an .800 OPS and 30+ home runs last year and this year, Eder will finish with cumulative ERAs around 6.50 in the same back to back years.

At the end of the day, they got a garbage return for a player who had value.

You must've missed the part where I said " It's up to [the Sox] to make sure the returns are successful".

And again, Eder can still have more value to this team than Burger would've. We'll see if he makes a successful move to the bullpen or figures anything out next season.

[almagest]

29 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

i guess you're right. It also opened up a roster spot for Nick Senzel.

They probably still sign Senzel even with Burger, because that's what terrible teams with no help in the upper minors do. Sign DFAs and pray.

[caulfield12]

48 minutes ago, almagest said:

The trade rationale made sense at the time and the Sox should keep making trades like that. It's up to them to make sure the returns are successful.

Also, let's pump the brakes on declaring this a bad trade already. It's definitely been bad value since Burger started hitting again and Eder forgot how to pitch, but Burger wouldn't do much for this team other than bump them from "worst team of all time" to "worst team of all time, but like 1 more win". We'll see if it stays that way - if Eder can become at least a solid reliever he's worth way more to this team in the next couple years than a 30+ year old Burger. One tool guys don't often perform well post 30, especially given his injury history.

Solid reliever doesn't move the needle either.  It would be shocking at this point for Eder to end up with anything close to 5 career fWAR with the Sox. 

If you're the Sox you need the 5+ fWAR four bagger hits...Robert and Crochet the only two in that stratosphere. 

Without stars, it would require almost almost every single position player to be around a 2.5-3ish fWAR contributor. 

Maybe Quero.  Maybe Montgomery.  But even those two aren't sure bets at this point. 

Edited August 23 by caulfield12

[almagest]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Solid reliever doesn't move the needle either.  It would be shocking at this point for Eder to end up with anything close to 5 career fWAR with the Sox. 

If you're the Sox you need the 5+ fWAR four bagger hits...Robert and Crochet the only two in that stratosphere. 

Without stars, it would require almost almost every single position player to be around a 2.5-3ish fWAR contributor. 

Maybe Quero.  Maybe Montgomery.  But even those two aren't sure bets at this point. 

The Sox absolutely need hitting for the future. Not right now - what they need right now is for a giant tsunami to wash the other team into the ocean before every series starts.

I don't believe in Burger as a key part of the Sox when they finally start to get decent again. By that point he'll be early 30s and guys with his profile are often in severe decline.

A solid hitting prospect would definitely have been a better return for Burger, but I doubt the Sox were getting that, unless they went super young, and that's not a KW trade.