MLB Pipeline comments...

[Lip Man 1]

They updated things on Thursday and here is what they said about the Sox:

11. Chicago White Sox
2024 preseason rank: 20
2023 midseason rank: 20
2023 preseason rank: 26
2022 midseason rank: 26

Top 100 prospects: Noah Schultz, LHP (No. 15); Colson Montgomery, SS (No. 28); Hagen Smith, LHP (No. 32 Edgar Quero, C (No. 63)

The White Sox are enduring a dismal season in the Majors but their farm system has improved from 26th entering 2023 to the cusp of the top 10, thanks to two promising Drafts and a series of veterans-for-prospects deals. Twenty of the prospects on their Top 30 have joined the organization since the start of last year, with the notable exceptions of 2022 first-rounder Schultz and 2021 first-rounder Montgomery. Chicago is tied with the Marlins for the second-most ranked prospects (11, one behind the Rays) acquired in trades but is tied for last with the Athletics with just two via the international market.

 

 

Edited August 15 by Lip Man 1

[oldsox]

2 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

They updated things on Thursday and here is what they said about the Sox:

11. Chicago White Sox
2024 preseason rank: 20
2023 midseason rank: 20
2023 preseason rank: 26
2022 midseason rank: 26

Top 100 prospects: Noah Schultz, LHP (No. 15); Colson Montgomery, SS (No. 28); Hagen Smith, LHP (No. 32 Edgar Quero, C (No. 63)

The White Sox are enduring a dismal season in the Majors but their farm system has improved from 26th entering 2023 to the cusp of the top 10, thanks to two promising Drafts and a series of veterans-for-prospects deals. Twenty of the prospects on their Top 30 have joined the organization since the start of last year, with the notable exceptions of 2022 first-rounder Schultz and 2021 first-rounder Montgomery. Chicago is tied with the Marlins for the second-most ranked prospects (11, one behind the Rays) acquired in trades but is tied for last with the Athletics with just two via the international market.

 

 

Is there a starting MLB Shortstop in there?

[caulfield12]

The problem is the rest of the AL Central is 3-6…except KC down at 25.

And Cags higher than Smith.

Wetherholt super highly regarded as well for StL.

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Is there a starting MLB Shortstop in there?

Not counting on it.  Baldwin really looks like 2B or LF/3B type, Chris Taylor Lite.

[oldsox]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Not counting on it.  Baldwin really looks like 2B or LF/3B type, Chris Taylor Lite.

So, Sox are the antithesis of Padres. They have a dozen shortstops to pick from, we have none.

[caulfield12]

51 minutes ago, oldsox said:

So, Sox are the antithesis of Padres. They have a dozen shortstops to pick from, we have none.

The Guardians do exactly the same thing if you look at their Top 30 typically.  With that huge pitching overemphasis as well.

Just not getting many hitters though, but lots of smooth fielding punch and judy types after pulling Gimenez from the Mets.

 

Sox are very high on new draftee SS Bonemer, let’s wait and see if he has true game or not.

Edited August 15 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The problem is the rest of the AL Central is 3-6…except KC down at 25.

And Cags higher than Smith.

Wetherholt super highly regarded as well for StL.

Which puts the Sox even further behind the rest of the ALCentral.

[oldsox]

7 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

They updated things on Thursday and here is what they said about the Sox:

11. Chicago White Sox
2024 preseason rank: 20
2023 midseason rank: 20
2023 preseason rank: 26
2022 midseason rank: 26

Top 100 prospects: Noah Schultz, LHP (No. 15); Colson Montgomery, SS (No. 28); Hagen Smith, LHP (No. 32 Edgar Quero, C (No. 63)

The White Sox are enduring a dismal season in the Majors but their farm system has improved from 26th entering 2023 to the cusp of the top 10, thanks to two promising Drafts and a series of veterans-for-prospects deals. Twenty of the prospects on their Top 30 have joined the organization since the start of last year, with the notable exceptions of 2022 first-rounder Schultz and 2021 first-rounder Montgomery. Chicago is tied with the Marlins for the second-most ranked prospects (11, one behind the Rays) acquired in trades but is tied for last with the Athletics with just two via the international market.

 

 

It doesn't take much to encourage me, but the obvious flaws in our ranking so high is that Montgomery, now in his 4th season, is flirting with the Mendoza Line and Schultz only throws 60-65 pitches per week.

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, oldsox said:

It doesn't take much to encourage me, but the obvious flaws in our ranking so high is that Montgomery, now in his 4th season, is flirting with the Mendoza Line and Schultz only throws 60-65 pitches per week.

Raw high school athletes usually do take 4-5 years.

The rule of thumb for top flight collegians 3-4 years.  White Sox cut those numbers in half, usually that works to their detriment.

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, oldsox said:

It doesn't take much to encourage me, but the obvious flaws in our ranking so high is that Montgomery, now in his 4th season, is flirting with the Mendoza Line and Schultz only throws 60-65 pitches per week.

Couldn’t you do this for most teams though? For example, just looking at the Guardians, whom they rank #4 overall... Their #2 prospect has nearly an identical OPS as Montgomery this season but he’s played at AA or lower all season and plays OF. Their #3 and #5 prospects are 1b, one is already 24 years old.

Then, a system like the Orioles that everyone raves about. They won’t even be a top 10 system when Mayo and Holliday graduate from prospect status this year. 

In reality, the #1 farm system and the #11 farm system aren’t drastically different. If the Sox had traded Crochet and Robert last month I believe they’d be #1. Yes, the MLB team would take a little hit (not really with the way Robert is playing) but that’s the type of fairly slim margin between those top 10 farm systems. 

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Couldn’t you do this for most teams though? For example, just looking at the Guardians, whom they rank #4 overall... Their #2 prospect has nearly an identical OPS as Montgomery this season but he’s played at AA or lower all season and plays OF. Their #3 and #5 prospects are 1b, one is already 24 years old.

Then, a system like the Orioles that everyone raves about. They won’t even be a top 10 system when Mayo and Holliday graduate from prospect status this year. 

In reality, the #1 farm system and the #11 farm system aren’t drastically different. If the Sox had traded Crochet and Robert last month I believe they’d be #1. Yes, the MLB team would take a little hit (not really with the way Robert is playing) but that’s the type of fairly slim margin between those top 10 farm systems. 

Yes when you graduate your top prospects the rankings take a hit, especially when they are the #1 prospect in baseball.  But then those guys are contributing major leaguers in Baltimore.  Dutch is years away and Montgomery can't hit a fastball.   There is a chasm of difference between the two.

Also there is a huge difference between 1 and 11. Like multiple spuerstar ceilings worth of differences.

[caulfield12]

29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yes when you graduate your top prospects the rankings take a hit, especially when they are the #1 prospect in baseball.  But then those guys are contributing major leaguers in Baltimore.  Dutch is years away and Montgomery can't hit a fastball.   There is a chasm of difference between the two.

Also there is a huge difference between 1 and 11. Like multiple spuerstar ceilings worth of differences.

But how much is the fastball hitting problem related to the back problem?

It's not going to be like the Yelich situation...?  Or more like Crede or Moncada?

Does anyone really know, beyond the rumors about back issues?   Herniated disc/surgery is obviously more invasive and concerning long-term than something healed more holistically.

[oldsox]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

But how much is the fastball hitting problem related to the back problem?

It's not going to be like the Yelich situation...?  Or more like Crede or Moncada?

Does anyone really know, beyond the rumors about back issues?   Herniated disc/surgery is obviously more invasive and concerning long-term than something healed more holistically.

It's not very invasive.  Delicate, yes.  Back in 2007 or so, there was a real good shortstop who played for Braves and Dodgers. He had the herniated disc surgery and was back playing pretty quickly.  Todd Helton had same condition at same time and chose not to have surgery, and it took him a long time to recover, with hours of therapy, I'm sure.  I also had the same surgery, and I can still operate my remote today.

[TaylorStSox]

I like that you guys are diagnosing and creating a treatment plan for an injury Montgomery may, or may not even have.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

I like that you guys are diagnosing and creating a treatment plan for an injury Montgomery may, or may not even have.

Can it be ANY worse than what the organization is doing right now outside of Sizemore and Bannister?

[Lyle Moooton]

Fwiw fangraphs has the Sox rated 3rd and BA 8th. 
 

I believe both have Thorpe still rated, which is at least part of it. 

Edited August 16 by Lyle Moooton

[mac9001]

21 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yes when you graduate your top prospects the rankings take a hit, especially when they are the #1 prospect in baseball.  But then those guys are contributing major leaguers in Baltimore.  Dutch is years away and Montgomery can't hit a fastball.   There is a chasm of difference between the two.

Also there is a huge difference between 1 and 11. Like multiple spuerstar ceilings worth of differences.

Don't know if I agree. Prospect rankings have a tendency to favor unproven lower level prospects. I'd be curious if you took a top 100 list in any given year and did a 6 year WAR avg from those prospects following the year of ranking. My guess is you get more 6 year WAR on AAAA players than top 100 lists. 

Then apply the same principle to farm system rankings. If you take each teams top 30 and get the 6 year WAR from that year forward I doubt you'll get a huge difference between 1 and 11.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, mac9001 said:

Don't know if I agree. Prospect rankings have a tendency to favor unproven lower level prospects. I'd be curious if you took a top 100 list in any given year and did a 6 year WAR avg from those prospects following the year of ranking. My guess is you get more 6 year WAR on AAAA players than top 100 lists. 

Then apply the same principle to farm system rankings. If you take each teams top 30 and get the 6 year WAR from that year forward I doubt you'll get a huge difference between 1 and 11.

The idea that the Sox and Os systems are close is absurd, even after Holliday graduates.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

30 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The idea that the Sox and Os systems are close is absurd, even after Holliday graduates.

What’s so special about the Orioles farm system after Holliday and Mayo graduate? Their #2 prospect will likely be Enrique Bradfield. Nothing exciting about their system after those two graduate and Elias has not done a good job of supplementing their system the last couple years, They’re in trouble if they don’t win it the next 3-4 years.

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What’s so special about the Orioles farm system after Holliday and Mayo graduate? Their #2 prospect will likely be Enrique Bradfield. Nothing exciting about their system after those two graduate and Elias has not done a good job of supplementing their system the last couple years, They’re in trouble if they don’t win it the next 3-4 years.

What's special about the Sox system?  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

What's special about the Sox system?  

I didn’t say it was special but I would rank it over the Orioles system once Holliday and Mayo lose prospect status. Have you looked at the Orioles top prospects recently? Without those two, it’s very rough after Basallo.

Edited August 17 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I didn’t say it was special but I would rank it over the Orioles system once Holliday and Mayo lose prospect status. Have you looked at the Orioles top prospects recently? Without those two, it’s very rough after Basallo.

Have you looked at the Sox system lately outside of Schultz?  

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What’s so special about the Orioles farm system after Holliday and Mayo graduate? Their #2 prospect will likely be Enrique Bradfield. Nothing exciting about their system after those two graduate and Elias has not done a good job of supplementing their system the last couple years, They’re in trouble if they don’t win it the next 3-4 years.

Mayo really struggled in his debut too.

Jury is still out on Holliday, but Witt Jr. is the path they should be (hopefully, for them) comparing to.

And then Basallo has some legit concerns sticking at catcher, and his ultimate position.

 

That said, Cowser Westburg and Ortiz all had their moments in the big leagues.  Kjerstad, another one who’s interesting but limited on D.

Overall, Henderson was seemingly underrated (top 3-5 in MLB) and Rutschman the opposite or just having a down year.

That’s a helluva lot of offensive talent, if just 1/3rd hits.

 

But now Grayson is hurt yet again (out indefinitely), holes in the bullpen and Burnes getting hit around as well.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Have you looked at the Sox system lately outside of Schultz?  

Sure. I’d take Hagen Smith and Edgar Quero over anyone in the Orioles system after Basallo once the other two graduate. You wouldn’t?  Everyone raves about Dylan Beavers. Dude is hitting .239 in AA as a 23 year old. Povich is their #5 prospect? Seriously? He sucks.

[Timmy U]

The Sox have a decent system with a couple of glaring holes: there’s no aircraft carrier core offensive performers. Quero probably hits 6th in a good mlb lineup. Montgomery is a question mark at this point, but even at his best, he seemed more like Robin Ventura than Frank Thomas. And, the Sox lack depth because their efforts in LatAm have been disastrous. Aside from Gonzalez, Shirley has done a pretty good job finding future mlb contributors in the last several drafts. Hopefully, Wolkow and Bonemer reach their high ceilings. Sox need more guys like them.