24-25 NFL Thread

[Chisoxfn]

  On 3/6/2025 at 9:51 PM, caulfield12 said:

Loveland of Michigan the other TE getting all the attention...almost more of a receiver than an end, like Kittle in his prime.  Or Bowers, but a bit less dynamic.

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If Bowers was there, I would legit consider him at 10 in this year's draft if the Bears addressed the other needs, cause he was such a special TE talent.  

[chw42]

  On 3/6/2025 at 9:25 PM, Chisoxfn said:

Or Bears trade down with the Bengals and pick up Hendrickson (maybe also trade down in the 2nd round).  But basically go from 10  to 17 - pick up Hendrickson and give him a big money deal on your line.  Than draft Simmons (presuming you like his medicals) at 17.  

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Getting Hendrickson also means you gotta pay him $30 million a year for at least 3 years. That basically makes it impossible for them to make a big splash signing in free agency. You kind of have to ask yourself, would you rather give 4 years and $80 million to Sweat, 2 years and $45 million for Mack (with maybe one of the years guaranteed), or draft capital + Hendrickson for 3 years and $90 million?

[bmags]

  On 3/6/2025 at 7:17 PM, Quin said:

@bmags how do we feel about Membou 

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I think he’ll be first tackle taken and be gone before we pick.

[Tony]

Doesn’t tell the whole story, but simply looked at the last 10 years in the NFL and the 5 teams that had the five highest winning percentages. Was the Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, Ravens and Packers. Then looked at what they did in the first round over the last 10 years. 
 

Chiefs (CB-QB-RB-CB-DE-DE-WR)

Steelers (LB-CB-LB-S-LB-RB-QB-OL-OL)

Bills (DE-CB-QB-LB-DT-DE-CB-TE)

Packers (S-DT-CB-DE-S-QB-CB-LB-DE-DE-OT)

Ravens (WR-OT-CB-TE-QB-WR-LB-WR-LB-CB-C-WR-CB)

Out of 48 selections by the 5 best teams in football the last year, 2 were RB. 

The two RB’s taken were Clyde Edwards-Helarie and Najee Harris, both picks I suspect the teams might want back in a re-draft. Harris was good his rookie year but pretty pedestrian the last few seasons. 
 

 

[bmags]

  On 3/7/2025 at 2:55 PM, Tony said:

Doesn’t tell the whole story, but simply looked at the last 10 years in the NFL and the 5 teams that had the five highest winning percentages. Was the Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, Ravens and Packers. Then looked at what they did in the first round over the last 10 years. 
 

Chiefs (CB-QB-RB-CB-DE-DE-WR)

Steelers (LB-CB-LB-S-LB-RB-QB-OL-OL)

Bills (DE-CB-QB-LB-DT-DE-CB-TE)

Packers (S-DT-CB-DE-S-QB-CB-LB-DE-DE-OT)

Ravens (WR-OT-CB-TE-QB-WR-LB-WR-LB-CB-C-WR-CB)

Out of 48 selections by the 5 best teams in football the last year, 2 were RB. 

The two RB’s taken were Clyde Edwards-Helarie and Najee Harris, both picks I suspect the teams might want back in a re-draft. Harris was good his rookie year but pretty pedestrian the last few seasons. 
 

 

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I'm not huge fans of this kind of analysis. 2/5 of those elite teams taking a RB is actually better than I thought, and notice Bills took James Cook in round 2, AJ Dillon was a 2nd round back. You are also anti 2nd round.

Bears haven't taken a RB in first two round since Forte, I think? And bears have been garbage the last decade. Maybe we should.

[Quin]

  On 3/7/2025 at 4:51 PM, bmags said:

I'm not huge fans of this kind of analysis. 2/5 of those elite teams taking a RB is actually better than I thought, and notice Bills took James Cook in round 2, AJ Dillon was a 2nd round back. You are also anti 2nd round.

Bears haven't taken a RB in first two round since Forte, I think? And bears have been garbage the last decade. Maybe we should.

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The highest running back they've taken since Forte was Montgomery in the third round in 2019.

If they pass on Jeanty, what are the odds that Hampton, Judkins or Johnson drop to their second rounders? I'm guessing low on Hampton, maybe on Judkins, likely on Johnson.

[Quin]

  On 3/6/2025 at 9:25 PM, Chisoxfn said:

Or Bears trade down with the Bengals and pick up Hendrickson (maybe also trade down in the 2nd round).  But basically go from 10  to 17 - pick up Hendrickson and give him a big money deal on your line.  Than draft Simmons (presuming you like his medicals) at 17.  

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Jason, fwiw The Athletic's proposal is just the #41 pick.

[Chisoxfn]

I actually was surprised - a ton more DB and LB's than I would have expected, but i think this is maybe not a correlation type of component and gets back to - most of this teams have had elite QB play (with exception of the Steelers).  I do agree, I don't buy taking a RB in round 1 with rare exception - but that doesn't mean round 2 isn't a good place to go get one (or in free agency grab a high end RB once he is finishing his first contract with the team that drafted him high - ie McCaffrey or Saquon).  

[Chisoxfn]

Johnathan Allen was banged up this past year and is 30 - but Commanders just released him. Could be an intriguing interior option and obviously has a pretty strong relationship with Sweat.  He has largely been a pretty healthy player with exception to this past year where he tore his pectoral muscle (which in general seems to be a common injury).  

[bmags]

  On 3/7/2025 at 5:32 PM, Chisoxfn said:

I actually was surprised - a ton more DB and LB's than I would have expected, but i think this is maybe not a correlation type of component and gets back to - most of this teams have had elite QB play (with exception of the Steelers).  I do agree, I don't buy taking a RB in round 1 with rare exception - but that doesn't mean round 2 isn't a good place to go get one (or in free agency grab a high end RB once he is finishing his first contract with the team that drafted him high - ie McCaffrey or Saquon).  

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I think the issue isn't "those teams prefer CBs/LBs" as much as those teams are taking the top players left end of round 1, which happen to be usually LB1 or still good CBs.

[Chicago White Sox]

  On 3/7/2025 at 2:55 PM, Tony said:

Doesn’t tell the whole story, but simply looked at the last 10 years in the NFL and the 5 teams that had the five highest winning percentages. Was the Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, Ravens and Packers. Then looked at what they did in the first round over the last 10 years. 
 

Chiefs (CB-QB-RB-CB-DE-DE-WR)

Steelers (LB-CB-LB-S-LB-RB-QB-OL-OL)

Bills (DE-CB-QB-LB-DT-DE-CB-TE)

Packers (S-DT-CB-DE-S-QB-CB-LB-DE-DE-OT)

Ravens (WR-OT-CB-TE-QB-WR-LB-WR-LB-CB-C-WR-CB)

Out of 48 selections by the 5 best teams in football the last year, 2 were RB. 

The two RB’s taken were Clyde Edwards-Helarie and Najee Harris, both picks I suspect the teams might want back in a re-draft. Harris was good his rookie year but pretty pedestrian the last few seasons. 
 

 

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I think this only tells part of the story.  These teams had MVP caliber QBs for long stretches during this time.  If you look at last year, the Super Bowl champs have a former 1st round RB and so did the regular season NFC champs (both were top 10 selections).  I think it’s too simple to say don’t ever select a RB early in the 1st round…however, I think it’s critical to have most other key pieces in place before you make a big investment in RB.  IMO, we should be able to get a high-end RB prospect in the 2nd all while adding a significant prospect for the trenches in the 1st.  And if we don’t love the guys available with our 2nd picks, there will be legitimate RB talent in the 3rd as well.

[bmags]

  On 3/7/2025 at 5:02 PM, Quin said:

The highest running back they've taken since Forte was Montgomery in the third round in 2019.

If they pass on Jeanty, what are the odds that Hampton, Judkins or Johnson drop to their second rounders? I'm guessing low on Hampton, maybe on Judkins, likely on Johnson.

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Matt Bowen on Hoge & Jahns soured me a little on Johnson. Hampton I would doubt makes it. I think I've grown most toward Henderson.

For as much as fans make fun of Skattebo...I do wonder if the coach that wanted David Montgomery wouldn't find him appealing.

[Chisoxfn]

  On 3/7/2025 at 5:48 PM, bmags said:

I think the issue isn't "those teams prefer CBs/LBs" as much as those teams are taking the top players left end of round 1, which happen to be usually LB1 or still good CBs.

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Completely agree - goes back to - when you are regularly drafting back 10 picks of the first round - you are going to entirely go to where the value on the draft board is. But look at the Ravens - staggering number of Wideouts drafted (they also had a lot more draft picks than the other teams - but 4 out of 13 if I counted correctly).  

[bmags]

Schneider deserves benefit of doubt, but I think it makes zero sense to trade out geno, only to sign darnold for more. And he’s worse.

[Kyyle23]

Just gonna say it;

 

if they get Dallman, Jeanty is the pick.  

[bmags]

  On 3/10/2025 at 1:55 PM, Kyyle23 said:

Just gonna say it;

 

if they get Dallman, Jeanty is the pick.  

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I will be so happy if we can even consider Jeanty with the work down before it. That said...I don't think Jeanty gets past the raiders. 

[T R U]

Im in the never take RB in the first round camp. Short shelf lives, just a waste of a premium pick.

If I was a GM, these are the only positions I would even consider in Round 1

Franchise Quarterback

Elite Wide Receiver

Defensive End / Linebacker if they are of the pass rush variety

Shut Down Cornerback

That's it. These are the difference maker positions.  

[Tony]

  On 3/10/2025 at 2:02 PM, T R U said:

Im in the never take RB in the first round camp. Short shelf lives, just a waste of a premium pick.

If I was a GM, these are the only positions I would even consider in Round 1

Franchise Quarterback

Elite Wide Receiver

Defensive End / Linebacker if they are of the pass rush variety

Shut Down Cornerback

That's it. These are the difference maker positions.  

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A giant, "can't miss" LT should be added to that list. And I'd rank it above Shut Down Corner, simply because even a shot down corner is still somewhat reliant on a pass rush. I don't care how good a CB may be, you give a QB 4 seconds in the pocket, that CB doesn't have much of a chance. 

But I generally agree with the list. No team has ever said "We have too many good pash rushers on the team" 

[bmags]

I think that stuff always changes. And I think we definitely are on a fulcrum where the defensive line and linebackers started to get so much lighter in order to be better at coverage that larger lineman/elite RBs are pressing the advantage. You saw Mcvay try to build a huge set of lineman last year. Detroit has, and obviously Philly. Despite that, that's not the only way. Obviously a team like Washington was built more on lateral speed and an incredible mobile QB. Whatever the KC offense was. But the lesson is probably always going to be "there is more than one way". The more a rule becomes standard in the nfl, the more the opportunity to take that elite guy gives you an advantage. 

I don't want Jeanty. In fact I think I keep saying it but I think the pick that could very well happen and make people crazy is Johnson pushing for Tyler Warren.

[T R U]

  On 3/10/2025 at 2:14 PM, Tony said:

A giant, "can't miss" LT should be added to that list. And I'd rank it above Shut Down Corner, simply because even a shot down corner is still somewhat reliant on a pass rush. I don't care how good a CB may be, you give a QB 4 seconds in the pocket, that CB doesn't have much of a chance. 

But I generally agree with the list. No team has ever said "We have too many good pash rushers on the team" 

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I would be ok with an elite LT prospect provided you're near the top of the draft and those other positions are either filled or the scouts don't feel the ones available meet the criteria laid out. 

I always think back to when the Dolphins passed on Matt Ryan to take Jake Long with the 1st pick in the draft. Or when they passed on Aaron Rodgers to take Ronnie Brown. Just stupid decisions.

The Eagles have arguably the best line in the league, and they have a 7th Round Pick (All Pro), two 2nd Round Picks, and 2 First Round picks. Of the two first round picks, one of them they drafted in 2013 (All Pro) and they other was a Jets bust they signed as a free agent and moved to guard.

[caulfield12]

  On 3/10/2025 at 2:28 PM, T R U said:

I would be ok with an elite LT prospect provided you're near the top of the draft and those other positions are either filled or the scouts don't feel the ones available meet the criteria laid out. 

I always think back to when the Dolphins passed on Matt Ryan to take Jake Long with the 1st pick in the draft. Or when they passed on Aaron Rodgers to take Ronnie Brown. Just stupid decisions.

The Eagles have arguably the best line in the league, and they have a 7th Round Pick (All Pro), two 2nd Round Picks, and 2 First Round picks. Of the two first round picks, one of them they drafted in 2013 (All Pro) and they other was a Jets bust they signed as a free agent and moved to guard.

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Lane Johnson OU 2013

[Chicago White Sox]

Mack back with the Chargers.

[Chicago White Sox]

Need to have C and EDGE solved by noon today.  If we can do that, the amount of flexibility in this draft would be stunning.  I still think you need to come out of this draft with legit prospects at most of OT, OG, EDGE, DT, RB, & WR, but you wouldn’t need to force the issue at any of those spots.  I still think trading down at 1.10 or one of our 2nd round picks could make sense if an impact talent isn’t there at a position of need.

[T R U]

  On 3/10/2025 at 2:59 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

Need to have C and EDGE solved by noon today.  If we can do that, the amount of flexibility in this draft would be stunning.  I still think you need to come out of this draft with legit prospects at most of OT, OG, EDGE, DT, RB, & WR, but you wouldn’t need to force the issue at any of those spots.  I still think trading down at 1.10 or one of our 2nd round picks could make sense if an impact talent isn’t there at a position of need.

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With almost surely 2 quarterbacks going before the Bears pick, they are going to have a nice pool of players available to them if they stay at 10. Especially in the Edge and Tackle area. 

[Tony]

Twitter being s%*# for anyone else today? Brutal day for it 😂