2024 Playoffs - NLCS/ALCS

[Quin]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

Whoops 

How could a team with Tommy Pham and six hits lose???

[caulfield12]

The Royals are in a tough spot for an ascending team, as their farm system is considered below MLB average. The organization’s two most recent first-round draft picks, Jac Caglianone and Blake Mitchell, are the best prospects in the bunch. Unfortunately, neither player has made it to Double-A, and therefore they’re likely to spend all of 2025 in the minors.

Right-hander Ben Kudma could find his way into the team’s rotation next summer. The 21-year-old has reached Double-A and makes up for a mediocre fastball with solid secondary offerings (slider, changeup). For now, though, his ceiling doesn’t seem to be especially high.

 

Goals for 2025

The Royals are in a strange spot. At first glance, they are ready to challenge for the AL Central title. After all, they made major strides this season and have one of baseball’s best players in Witt. But there are significant holes on the roster and an overall lack of depth, with little immediate help from the minors on the horizon.

By adding two or three free agents at positions of need, Kansas City could have as good of a chance of winning the division as the Guardians, Tigers or Twins. But if the front office sits on its hands and players such as Witt and Lugo experience regression after remarkable campaigns, Kansas City could be surpassed in an increasingly competitive division.

 

Next year's Starting Rotation should be Ragans, Lugo, Singer, Alec Marsh/Kyle Wright (likely at least one FA pitcher needed with Michael Wacha opting for FA coming off a strong season.)

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/kansas-city-royals-2024-offseason-preview-whats-next-for-bobby-witt-jr-and-co-as-the-royals-move-out-of-rebuild-mode-024658670.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zcG9ydHMueWFob28uY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFrmvlQb7gUaEhVvjBPFSeJEJV2lGkGexEWKs-eZGNc1m3mgA3I3T0ylP9imNL50mPfWJrVRNwzQtbhKpqV9OX9pycy7jyKq9vaYz8UUNnlcn_cYGetpvxZsYoTkvQzCYVfdehW8pv5jCp8i2DFYjZHQ9lz_lixduiS8t1VYdUq6

 

 

 

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2 hours ago

 

Bummer. Was curious if Will Smith’s luck would continue. 3 consecutive years as a World Series champion with 3 separate franchises. On the verge of a 4th.

That’s alright, with my team already not making the playoffs, I was personally hoping for a Yankees-Dodgers World Series. So far so good.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago

 

Yanks never would have won game 1 in NY, but the corrupt replay center cheated KC on the call. 5 camera angles proved Chisholm was out at 2nd base. Of course, the little cheat landed on the Yanks. His snotty attitude fits right in!

Edited October 11 by caulfield12

[greg775]

I went to the game again tonight watching modern baseball. The Yankees and Royals hit no homers tonight though KC had two shots on the warning track. Everybody's trying to lift and pull while taking a ton of pitches and both striking out and walking a lot.

The Yankees are so flawed. They can't hit. But right now they have a hot closer in Weaver and a hot set up man in Holmes. They got 7 innings out of Garret Cole which saved them. Their set up and closer mowed down the Royals after 7 strong innings from Cole. KC once again paraded out six or seven relievers. They're all fairly good which is their hope for next year. Have a great bullpen and starters who are definitely effective through five or six innings.

Salvy's getting old but probably will rake again next season. Witt is only going to get better. Massey is for real. Judge was ridiculously awful during the KC series. Teams should copy the Royals strategy against Judge. Soto did OK but was not a difference maker in the series.

The Royals are looking good in the infield with Garcia, Witt, Massey and Vinnie P. Salvy is a clutch performer. Pham slugged 3 hits tonight. The Royals are so far ahead of the Sox partly because in this era of modern baseball, the 5-6 relievers needed in a game can't cut it on the Sox roster; KC has those pitchers in place. Don't be surprised if KC keeps Wacha to go with Lugo and Singer. After going to a couple games I can see how KC beat the Sox 12 of 13. KC had a better team than the Yankees, just got beat. Jazz is lol bad at the plate and Volpe the SS can't hit.  Berti, Verdugo and Wells can't hit. Stanton is OK and Torres is OK.

Edited October 11 by greg775

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

I went to the game again tonight watching modern baseball. The Yankees and Royals hit no homers tonight though KC had two shots on the warning track. Everybody's trying to lift and pull while taking a ton of pitches and both striking out and walking a lot.

The Yankees are so flawed. They can't hit. But right now they have a hot closer in Weaver and a hot set up man in Holmes. They got 7 innings out of Garret Cole which saved them. Their set up and closer mowed down the Royals after 7 strong innings from Cole. KC once again paraded out six or seven relievers. They're all fairly good which is their hope for next year. Have a great bullpen and starters who are definitely effective through five or six innings.

Salvy's getting old but probably will rake again next season. Witt is only going to get better. Massey is for real. Judge was ridiculously awful during the KC series. Teams should copy the Royals strategy against Judge. Soto did OK but was not a difference maker in the series.

The Royals are looking good in the infield with Garcia, Witt, Massey and Vinnie P. Salvy is a clutch performer. Pham slugged 3 hits tonight. The Royals are so far ahead of the Sox partly because in this era of modern baseball, the 5-6 relievers needed in a game can't cut it on the Sox roster; KC has those pitchers in place. Don't be surprised if KC keeps Wacha to go with Lugo and Singer. After going to a couple games I can see how KC beat the Sox 12 of 13. KC had a better team than the Yankees, just got beat. Jazz is lol bad at the plate and Volpe the SS can't hit.  Berti, Verdugo and Wells can't hit. Stanton is OK and Torres is OK.

2 years/$32M (2024-25)

• signed by Kansas City as a free agent 12/15/23
• 24:$16M, 25:$16M player option
• annual performance bonuses: $50,000 each for 110, 115, 120, 125, 130, 135, 140, 145, 150 innings pitche

Michael Wacha is likely gone, as he's going to believe coming off his strong 2024 season that he can get a much better deal than just playing out the one remaining guaranteed contract year for $16 million.

Ragans is currently their best starter, while his health lasts.

Massey and Franco are going to be asked to do even more offensively, because the outfield's offensive contributions from Melendez/Isbel/Renfroe undoubtedly put them into the Bottom 3 in all of MLB.  They will have to sign at least one FA here in order to compete in 2025.

Salvy Perez is REALLY going to have a tough time repeating this year's offensive performance next season, same with Lugo (on the pitching side)...although Lugo's really impressed the last couple of seasons after converting from primarily a bullpen/swing guy.

Pham likely gone as playoff teams have to aim higher...than him DeLong or Gurriel.

 

Edited October 11 by caulfield12

[kitekrazy]

an overall lack of depth, with little immediate help from the minors on the horizon

A lot of teams can run into this.  I don't think teams are as willing to give up their best prospects over perceived best prospects.  A GM like Getz is easily fleeced.

[caulfield12]

Tigers had their chances

So it’ll come down to the Tigers ace on Saturday night in Cleveland, and maybe that’s the way it should be. For all the magical conjuring that A.J. Hinch has whipped up on this October stage, baseball fortunes often turn on the biggest pitcher. The Tigers have the best in the game this year. They can’t complain about their chance.

But they can bemoan their other chances — the ones they had and didn’t take advantage of Thursday. You could sense that, once Cleveland grabbed a first-inning lead, the Tigers would need as many runs as possible in this one. But too many times, even when they scored a run, they left men in the boat instead of bringing them to shore.

Mitch Album  Detroit Free Press

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/columnists/mitch-albom/2024/10/11/mitch-albom-guardians-steal-tigers-playbook-with-late-heroics-to-force-game-5/75619130007/

Edited October 11 by caulfield12

[Quin]

6 hours ago, kitekrazy said:

an overall lack of depth, with little immediate help from the minors on the horizon

A lot of teams can run into this.  I don't think teams are as willing to give up their best prospects over perceived best prospects.  A GM like Getz is easily fleeced.

Chris Getz, who is not a nerd and is a baseball man = Breaks the all-time loss record when not trying to tank (despite what he said at the end of the year).

David Stearns, a Harvard grad who worked in several successful front offices = Reaches NLCS in a "we're not trying" year

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

Chris Getz, who is not a nerd and is a baseball man = Breaks the all-time loss record when not trying to tank (despite what he said at the end of the year).

David Stearns, a Harvard grad who worked in several successful front offices = Reaches NLCS in a "we're not trying" year

But a Top 5 mlb payroll...hard to know what conclusions to draw, because Milwaukee ran away with the Central after replacing their supposed superstar manager to the Cubs.

Maybe it's simply the Cubs and Cardinals underachieving or sticking to mid tier payrolls instead of genuinely attempting to compete...also see John Henry, 2024 Boston Red Sox.

[caulfield12]

Darvish has a reputation as a shaky postseason pitcher, but that’s largely because of the 2017 World Series, when the Astros infamously wiped him out twice. Outside of that series, he has a 2.92 career ERA in 10 other postseason starts, including 2.53 in five starts with the Padres. Darvish’s last win-or-go-home game at Dodger Stadium was a disaster. This one looks primed to go much better.

.....

There are a lot of potential Hall of Famers who will be on the field Friday night. Mookie Betts. Ohtani. Freddie Freeman (assuming he’s healthy). Manny Machado, probably. Fernando Tatis Jr. -- if he keeps playing like he has this series. These are five of the most recognizable names in the sport, all playing to keep their seasons alive and secure their place in postseason lore.

https://www.mlb.com/news/storylines-for-padres-dodgers-nlds-game-5

Edited October 11 by caulfield12

[Quin]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

But a Top 5 mlb payroll...hard to know what conclusions to draw, because Milwaukee ran away with the Central after replacing their supposed superstar manager to the Cubs.

Maybe it's simply the Cubs and Cardinals underachieving or sticking to mid tier payrolls instead of genuinely attempting to compete...also see John Henry, 2024 Boston Red Sox.

Yes, obviously you have star money given to Lindor and Diaz. But Stearns inherited a s%*# ton of retained payroll going to Verlander, Scherzer, Narvaez and McCann.

[southsider2k5]

28 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

But a Top 5 mlb payroll...hard to know what conclusions to draw, because Milwaukee ran away with the Central after replacing their supposed superstar manager to the Cubs.

Maybe it's simply the Cubs and Cardinals underachieving or sticking to mid tier payrolls instead of genuinely attempting to compete...also see John Henry, 2024 Boston Red Sox.

In 2024 the Chicago White Sox had the highest payroll in the AL Central.

[caulfield12]

43 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

In 2024 the Chicago White Sox had the highest payroll in the AL Central.

Yep just barely over the Twins...who ended up finishing 4th in the division.

 

1. Twins − $124,077,590
2. Royals − $115,257,261
3. Reds − $106,441,547
4. Brewers − $105,833,094
5. Tigers − $103,834,833
6. Rays − $101,023,112
7. Marlins − $97,227,400
8. Orioles − $94,520,400
9. Guardians − $93,333,629

This is #20-28...five playoff teams concentrated here, in pretty much reverse order of actual finish.

Obviously the Royals wouldn't have made it without their big free agent spending splurge AND the presence of the White Sox.

Edited October 11 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

The true failure here is none of us bet their house so nobody won Greg’s house 

[kitekrazy]

55 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

But a Top 5 mlb payroll...hard to know what conclusions to draw, because Milwaukee ran away with the Central after replacing their supposed superstar manager to the Cubs.

Maybe it's simply the Cubs and Cardinals underachieving or sticking to mid tier payrolls instead of genuinely attempting to compete...also see John Henry, 2024 Boston Red Sox.

Everyone is into the Rays model but the real challenge comes when paying your 5 war players. 

Baseball is the least predictable of sports and yet we treat it like it's not.

[kitekrazy]

How much of that Sox money was wasted in DFAs or in the interest of making Birmingham better.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

In 2024 the Chicago White Sox had the highest payroll in the AL Central.

Don’t worry, they’ll have the lowest payroll in the division in 2025. I’ll be surprised if they top $80M.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Don’t worry, they’ll have the lowest payroll in the division in 2025. I’ll be surprised if they top $80M.

Dumping Robert and Vaughn would shave off another 25% or so...essentially leaving only the Benintendi deal.

[southsider2k5]

36 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Dumping Robert and Vaughn would shave off another 25% or so...essentially leaving only the Benintendi deal.

Such a franchise crippling deal.

[caulfield12]

38 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Such a franchise crippling deal.

Just watch. JR is going to use the Twins’ example, how their bigger contracts for Correa, Lopez and Buxton make it impossible for them to fill out a competitive roster for less than $130 million.

If there’s a more similar operation than the Pohlad’s and how that three generation is now in the process of running that team into the ground but in a more competitive way with a newer stadium by twenty some years over GRF.

 

In Minnesota, Chip Scoggins wrote the Twins had a “collapse of the ages” as they went from “playoff shoo-in to playoff phooey in a matter of six weeks is a special kind of meltdown, and now the blame game kicks into overdrive.” The Twins went from 70-53 and a five-game advantage in the wild-card race on Aug. 17 to 82-80 by the end of the year. Scoggins wrote his “message to the Pohlads: Get serious or sell the team. Those are the options. Either or. Because the approach this season was shameful.” The Twins ownership’s “inability or unwillingness” to recognize the negative impact that a payroll dump would have on the momentum and fan re-engagement generated last season is just “mind-boggling.” Scoggins added the fan base is as “angry as it has been in a long, long time.” Scoggins: “The organization has a lot of damage to undo to win back fans. It’s not a coincidence that the Twins rank in the bottom third of attendance despite being in a playoff race until the final week.”

Edited October 11 by caulfield12

[greg775]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Dumping Robert and Vaughn would shave off another 25% or so...essentially leaving only the Benintendi deal.

If it shaves off 25 percent I'd suggest both Robert and Vaughn are gone. If Sox had signed Lugo and Wacha would they have been division champs? That bullpen still would reek. Royals must have a good hitting coach as Pham is raking.

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, greg775 said:

If it shaves off 25 percent I'd suggest both Robert and Vaughn are gone. If Sox had signed Lugo and Wacha would they have been division champs? That bullpen still would reek. Royals must have a good hitting coach as Pham is raking.

Pham went from a 710 ops with the White Sox down to 654 with the Cardinals and finally finished with a 2024 Soxish 587 in over 100 at bats in KC.

5/15 in postseason, but only a 646 ops, and his defensive metrics are always negative.

 

So he got worse and worse during the course of the year, simply wore down, probably.

The White Sox would still have finished with 100-105 losses even with those two KC starters inserted.

99% sure their combined outfield OPS was 29th or 30th in MLB in 2024.   Probably right there with the White Sox, actually.

 

 

The writing, though, might have been on the wall for the Royals offense after they limped their way into October.

From Aug. 28 to the end of the season, the Royals went 11-18. And in that 29-game span, 18 of those games saw them score three runs or fewer.

As a team, they ranked last in MLB in wRC+ (59), AVG (.200), OBP (.268) and SLG (.303) during that 29-game span to close the season, according to FanGraphs.

In terms of the ALDS in particular, what wasn’t as expected was the silence of the two main bats in the Royals’ lineup: 1/16 Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino.

After a year that put him in the AL MVP conversation with a .332 AVG, a .977 OPS, 32 HR and 109 RBI, followed by a Wild Card series that saw him drive home two of the Royals’ three runs, Witt was virtually nowhere to be found in the ALDS.

justbaseball.com

Edited October 11 by caulfield12

[greg775]

31 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

5/15 in postseason, but only a 646 ops, and his defensive metrics are always negative.

This is where baseball statniks so to speak (not you, I respect your posts) slay me. Pham was so hitterish last night. He was ultra valuable no matter what advanced stats say. If all the Royals had his approach to put the ball in play and whack three hits (not trying for homers) they'd have won the game. He was the only guy hitterish. Meanwhile, in game three, the only Yankee to hit was Stanton with three of the four hits. Royals didn't fit Kauffman well. Melendez and Isbel had HRs if they were in Yankee Stadium, deep HRs to right.

[caulfield12]

2-0 Dodgers Bottom of the 7th

Padres' offense just completely shut down for two nights in a row now.

Yamamoto came through for them, so some ROI on that $300+ million.

[Snopek]

11 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Padres' offense just completely shut down for two nights in a row now.

Fortunately for the offense, all the Padres fans will remember is Dylan Cease pitching bad.

[caulfield12]

Kopech at 101.6 with the K

1-2-3 inning probably goes to Treinen next to close it out

Edited October 12 by caulfield12