The trade ideas begin! Robert for Holliday ++

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

10 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Holliday played more games at SS than 2B in the minors and the scouting reports I’ve read say he’s at least average defensively at SS.  They moved him to 2B because they weren’t going to move their All-Star Gunnar Henderson from SS.  But fine, I’ll take a 2B prospect with a .928 OPS in the minors.  You think he’s overrated because of 190 at bats in the majors.  He’s 20 years old.  This isn’t a 24 year old Vargas with 509 career at bats.

He’s overrated because unless he carries a .928 OPS into mlb no second basemen should be the #1 overall prospect in mlb. I don’t care what position he played in high school or minor leagues, he doesn’t have the arm strength to play SS. His arm is barely good enough to play 2b in mlb.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jackson-holliday-702616?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Edited October 7 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[caulfield12]

57 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

He’s overrated because unless he carries a .928 OPS into mlb no second basemen should be the #1 overall prospect in mlb. I don’t care what position he played in high school or minor leagues, he doesn’t have the arm strength to play SS. His arm is barely good enough to play 2b in mlb.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jackson-holliday-702616?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

His younger brother is the one with the hose for an arm...

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

His younger brother is the one with the hose for an arm...

Yup. Now that dude is worthy of the #1 overall prospect rating if he can hit. He’s impressive all around.

Anyways, I think it would be foolish to trade Crochet straight up for any single prospect, especially Jackson Holliday. At this point, I’d be looking for a volume deal of something like Crawford, Caba, Saltiban, and DeMartini from the Phillies. The top end of the Sox farm looks good but still need to build depth particularly with so many holes on the MLB roster.

[2Deep]

I would straight up trade Robert for Holliday in a heartbeat.

[46DidIt]

21 hours ago, almagest said:

That's why I don't want to trade him, because no one is going to pay what the Sox need to help turn this thing around. They're better off hoping he rebounds this year.

I tend to agree, but OTOH, I suspect his baseball stupidity is contagious, so I could go either way. I am looking forward to the day when there are none remaining from the fabled “core”

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

38 minutes ago, 2Deep said:

I would straight up trade Robert for Holliday in a heartbeat.

Robert yes, Crochet no

Edit: Sox should even be willing to throw in $15M if a Robert for Holliday trade is then on the table if Orioles are concerned about the cost of the options years

Edited October 7 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[WhiteSox2023]

7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Robert yes, Crochet no

Edit: Sox should even be willing to throw in $15M if a Robert for Holliday trade is then on the table if Orioles are concerned about the cost of the options years

First of all, when does Reinsdorf ever approve including that kind of money in a trade?

Even if he did, I think the Orioles would rather have 6 years of a cheap Holliday rather than 3 years of Robert for $40 million.

25:$15M, 26:$20M club option ($2M buyout). 27:$20M club option ($2M buyout)

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Robert yes, Crochet no

Edit: Sox should even be willing to throw in $15M if a Robert for Holliday trade is then on the table if Orioles are concerned about the cost of the options years

Make it $100 million that the White Sox are throwing in and you might have the Orioles' interest.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

44 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Robert yes, Crochet no

Edit: Sox should even be willing to throw in $15M if a Robert for Holliday trade is then on the table if Orioles are concerned about the cost of the options years

That's absolutely silly you wouldn't trade Crochet for Holliday... The Orioles (rightfully so) would laugh at us if we proposed that.

[almagest]

I think people are assuming some of Holliday's star has worn off due to his shift to 2B and his poor performance in the majors this year. I think that could be true if this was Dombrowski, but I highly, HIGHLY doubt the Orioles are going to trade him, unless they're completely out on him. I don't think they trade anyone but marginal prospects for 1 year or "B" level players.

[Bob Sacamano]

25 minutes ago, almagest said:

I think people are assuming some of Holliday's star has worn off due to his shift to 2B and his poor performance in the majors this year. I think that could be true if this was Dombrowski, but I highly, HIGHLY doubt the Orioles are going to trade him, unless they're completely out on him. I don't think they trade anyone but marginal prospects for 1 year or "B" level players.

Hes 20 years old. Still has all the talent to be special. If we did a deal where traded both Robert and Crochet to the O’s, I would want Holliday + + however.

[Balta1701]

36 minutes ago, almagest said:

I think people are assuming some of Holliday's star has worn off due to his shift to 2B and his poor performance in the majors this year. I think that could be true if this was Dombrowski, but I highly, HIGHLY doubt the Orioles are going to trade him, unless they're completely out on him. I don't think they trade anyone but marginal prospects for 1 year or "B" level players.

I think it’s likely that he’s not worth what he was a year ago at this time, that’s totally normal for prospects right when they come up. If he was still the number 1 prospect in baseball and he had performed well this year, the Orioles would laugh at the idea of moving him for a pitcher with only two years of control. They might actually consider it, if they think for example that developing him into an all star could be a 3 year process as their window may not be that long. And maybe if Robert was viewed by them as having some value, which is questionable at this point, maybe you could come up with a hypothetical package.

But Robert for Holliday is silly season talk after the last year. We should understand baseball better than this.

[caulfield12]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think it’s likely that he’s not worth what he was a year ago at this time, that’s totally normal for prospects right when they come up. If he was still the number 1 prospect in baseball and he had performed well this year, the Orioles would laugh at the idea of moving him for a pitcher with only two years of control. They might actually consider it, if they think for example that developing him into an all star could be a 3 year process as their window may not be that long. And maybe if Robert was viewed by them as having some value, which is questionable at this point, maybe you could come up with a hypothetical package.

But Robert for Holliday is silly season talk after the last year. We should understand baseball better than this.

They have the option on Mullins...so Robert would have limited intrigue unless they somehow believed they could turn him around.

But he's no more a guarantee to hit for power next year than Hjerstad or Mayo for example.

Edited October 7 by caulfield12

[almagest]

25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think it’s likely that he’s not worth what he was a year ago at this time, that’s totally normal for prospects right when they come up. If he was still the number 1 prospect in baseball and he had performed well this year, the Orioles would laugh at the idea of moving him for a pitcher with only two years of control. They might actually consider it, if they think for example that developing him into an all star could be a 3 year process as their window may not be that long. And maybe if Robert was viewed by them as having some value, which is questionable at this point, maybe you could come up with a hypothetical package.

But Robert for Holliday is silly season talk after the last year. We should understand baseball better than this.

For sure. Robert isn't worth much right now compared to what he would be worth with a bounceback season, which is why they'd better not trade him unless they can somehow get a solid depth package. Which I doubt, both because of Robert's season and Getz.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, almagest said:

For sure. Robert isn't worth much right now compared to what he would be worth with a bounceback season, which is why they'd better not trade him unless they can somehow get a solid depth package. Which I doubt, both because of Robert's season and Getz.

The only reason why the White Sox would trade Robert is that Getz has fully decided to move on from him no matter the cost. 

The fact that his name is already being dropped and that people who know seem to expect him to be gone suggests to me that this is exactly what will happen.

[caulfield12]

How many teams in baseball can even afford to pick up the remaining financial risk on the Robert deal?

He's just about the equivalent of Alex Rios when KW claimed him right now.

Maybe another 1/2 year of struggles away...if that.

 

[almagest]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The only reason why the White Sox would trade Robert is that Getz has fully decided to move on from him no matter the cost. 

The fact that his name is already being dropped and that people who know seem to expect him to be gone suggests to me that this is exactly what will happen.

Yes, I understand that. I'm saying what they should do, and what I hope they do. If they trade him for basically nothing because they have to lower payroll to Oakland levels, then I can't imagine why anyone would want to follow this team.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

How many teams in baseball can even afford to pick up the remaining financial risk on the Robert deal?

He's just about the equivalent of Alex Rios when KW claimed him right now.

Maybe another 1/2 year of struggles away...if that.

 

Eh they all could, salaries have on average more than doubled in the past 15 years, so your comparison doesn’t work.

The Rays probably wouldn’t pay that. The Pirates wouldn’t. The As wouldn’t. Most other teams though could take his deal on if they thought it was a good value.

[southsider2k5]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The only reason why the White Sox would trade Robert is that Getz has fully decided to move on from him no matter the cost. 

The fact that his name is already being dropped and that people who know seem to expect him to be gone suggests to me that this is exactly what will happen.

Plus the bonus of not having any scouts left to help decide who to take on. What could possibly go wrong?

[MiddleCoastBias]

1 hour ago, almagest said:

I think people are assuming some of Holliday's star has worn off due to his shift to 2B and his poor performance in the majors this year. I think that could be true if this was Dombrowski, but I highly, HIGHLY doubt the Orioles are going to trade him, unless they're completely out on him. I don't think they trade anyone but marginal prospects for 1 year or "B" level players.

Agreed.

And it's funny as fans that we can say "Just because Robert sucked all year doesn't mean he should be worth any less, he's still capable of being a stud!", and then we turn around and say "Holliday sucked in his first taste of the majors, we should be able to get him at decreased value!"

Baltimore has every reason and more to think Holliday can still be the guy he was projected to be before his first call-up.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

That's absolutely silly you wouldn't trade Crochet for Holliday... The Orioles (rightfully so) would laugh at us if we proposed that.

It’s not silly at all and the orioles would be idiots to laugh at it…

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

Agreed.

And it's funny as fans that we can say "Just because Robert sucked all year doesn't mean he should be worth any less, he's still capable of being a stud!", and then we turn around and say "Holliday sucked in his first taste of the majors, we should be able to get him at decreased value!"

Baltimore has every reason and more to think Holliday can still be the guy he was projected to be before his first call-up.

There’s no question Robert’s stock is down since last offseason. So is Holliday’s and Mayo’s. Holliday still has more value than Robert but I wouldn’t trade Crochet for him straight up.

[WhiteSox2023]

33 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

It’s not silly at all and the orioles would be idiots to laugh at it…

When is the last comparable trade of a recent #1 overall prospect for an ace potential starter with two years of control?

The Sale trade is all I can think of.  I believe Moncada was the #1 overall prospect at the time but Sale had 3 years of control left and was much more established as a top starter than Crochet is right now.  Sale was also under an extremely team-friendly contract for those remaining 3 years at $39.5 million total.

Edited October 7 by WhiteSox2023

[TaylorStSox]

3 hours ago, 2Deep said:

I would straight up trade Robert for Holliday in a heartbeat.

Holliday is probably a better prospect than Robert ever was. 

[TaylorStSox]

You would have to be batshit crazy not to do Holliday for Crochet straight up, and I think Crochet is underrated. 9 players in all of baseball had an OPS above .900 this year. This isn't 2000. Holliday would instantly our best prospect since Frank.