Venable named new Sox Manager-per Merkin

[JoeC]

6 minutes ago, Milkman delivers said:

That jumped out at me. 43 innings is a small sample size. 24 innings is a small sample size. But 5 appearances? Clearly enough to say the Sox righted him.

And if the Sox did fix him, and then traded him for the garbage they acquired, then that speaks even less of Getz.

It was documented at the time:

 

[TaylorStSox]

I don't know why everyone is convinced Kopech is "fixed." He's always been capable of looking great for short stretches.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Hey! We agree on something haha. The narrative that the Dodgers fixed Michael Kopech is insane. He just actually started doing the things that Brian Bannister told him to do. It started with his last five appearances with the White Sox. It's a big reason why the Sox should've been able to get more for him in the trade. 

Really?  With Kopech's history of poor performance, injury and considerable baggage you think they should have gotten more based on 5 appearances?  The Dodgers took a flier on him because they can afford to take risks that other teams can't.  If another GM makes that move and it goes sideways (which was a strong possibility) that's a move that could get a GM fired.  No one was going to put their balls on the table for Michael Kopech.

[WhiteSox2023]

15 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

I don't know why everyone is convinced Kopech is "fixed." He's always been capable of looking great for short stretches.

This is true, but is 33 innings a short stretch?  That’s about half a season of innings for most relievers.

I guess we’ll find out next season.

Edited November 1 by WhiteSox2023

[BigHurt3515]

1 hour ago, 2Deep said:

I hate this team and organization but the Dodgers didn't fix Kopech.  Ethan Katz had it figured out, just needed Kopech to buy in like he did with Dodgers.

People never factor in competing with a team with something to play for. 

[Quin]

54 minutes ago, Milkman delivers said:

Greg, you do this all the time. You attach to an idea and it’s then an unquestionable truth.

Venable is not a good manager. Not yet, at least. He hasn’t done the job yet. Don’t get ahead of yourself. He may be the team’s saving grace, or he may be another Grifol.

This is why I'm calling him a hypothetical bucket of water for this dumpster fire.

He may be a part of putting it out! He could also be gasoline. Or just empty. Right now, the industry thinks he's water, but we won't know until April.

[TaylorStSox]

One thing I found interesting that Venable said was about his experience in the draft room and the deadline room. I wonder if Getz targeted him to have some help in those areas. If so, that makes the hire even better.

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Isn't five consecutive appearances also SSS?

Sure but he said that he finally started to listen to what he was being told. Then he went to Dodgers and continued success and even improved. 

1 hour ago, Tony said:

So to be clear, the argument you are making is the World Series Champions had no impact on Michael Kopech, but instead the success he found in LA can all be attributed to his learnings from the 41-121 White Sox? Just want to be on the same page. 

They definitely had some impact. The narrative that "they fixed" Michael Kopech is nonsense though. 

 

26 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Really?  With Kopech's history of poor performance, injury and considerable baggage you think they should have gotten more based on 5 appearances?  The Dodgers took a flier on him because they can afford to take risks that other teams can't.  If another GM makes that move and it goes sideways (which was a strong possibility) that's a move that could get a GM fired.  No one was going to put their balls on the table for Michael Kopech.

I think that trade was a bit short. Kopech for Albertus and Perez is probably fine in isolation. 

[GGajewski18]

Aren't the Sox getting a PTBNL or cash for Kopech as well from the Dodgers?

 

I'd assume Sox will be getting a player because he was awesome with them. 

 

[FloydBannister1983]

2 hours ago, Sleepy Harold said:

In case anyone wanted to watch/listen to the introductory presser, here ya go.

 

 

Do other teams try so hard to show their one trophy 20 years later?  Do you see the Diamondbacks or Marlins trophies in their introductory videos?  Serious question.

[almagest]

4 minutes ago, FloydBannister1983 said:

Do other teams try so hard to show their one trophy 20 years later?  Do you see the Diamondbacks or Marlins trophies in their introductory videos?  Serious question.

The Bears

[nitetrain8601]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

2% is not a change in pitch mix. That is, well within the expected outcomes of his next 30 innings based on his mix with the White Sox. The problem with most people that look at statistics and data is they have no idea what it means or is telling them. A change in pitch mix is an intentional alteration of your pitch selection that would not be in line with the typical fluctuations of your current mix.

So to answer your question, not it's not the argument you're reading.

My evidence showed the exact opposite. Kopech's OUTCOMES were different with the Dodgers but his expected outcomes were very much in line with how he performed with the White Sox. Outcomes, over small samples, are heavily subjugated by noise and not anything of actual meaning.

Kopech was just as likely to go to the Dodgers and see his BABIP go up as he was to see it go down. The fact it went down 50% and his LOB% went up 20% have nothing to do with Michael Kopech and are not things he controls.

First sentence: 2% is not a change in pitch mix. By the end of that paragraph: "A change in pitch mix is an intentional alteration of your pitch selection that would not be in line with the typical fluctuations of your current mix."

If it's 2% or 50%, it's a change. You also have not considered arm slot, pitch stride, pitch cadence and that's just Kopech. You don't consider how the Dodgers used him. What situations they brought him in. How often they threw him out there and how often they rested him.

For a reliever, anything over 15IP is not a small sample size.  

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Really?  With Kopech's history of poor performance, injury and considerable baggage you think they should have gotten more based on 5 appearances?  The Dodgers took a flier on him because they can afford to take risks that other teams can't.  If another GM makes that move and it goes sideways (which was a strong possibility) that's a move that could get a GM fired.  No one was going to put their balls on the table for Michael Kopech.

Vargas was a negligible risk.

They already had Rojas Lux Muncy and then added Ki ke and Edman.

Zero need for a non productive player without plus tools…except walking.

Half the GM’s in baseball would take a flier since failure would be expected and success a massive feather in your cap.

Like when the Sox traded Borchard for Matt Thornton after Cooper spotted a quick fix.

The low A infielders were never more than lottery tickets for a team that buys 25-30 per season…neither of those guys have plus tools across the board.

[TaylorStSox]

The issue isn't what we got for Kopech, it's what we didn't get for Fedde.

Edited November 1 by TaylorStSox

[caulfield12]

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/316381/
 

https://www.truebluela.com/2023/8/8/23823149/dodgers-hyun-seok-jang-south-korea-international-bonus-pool

 

The Dodgers are not the only team that takes risks.  This LHP prep kid from Korea we traded them intl bonus money to sign might never make the majors…or he could be another Nomo Park Urias, or anything in between.

But you never know unless you’re actually willing to spend money like the Guardians do in Latin America.

You don’t need the Rangers or Padres scouting budgets to pull this off.

You can always operate like the Brewers or Rays if you want.  It just takes organizational vision and commitment.

[Quin]

1 hour ago, GGajewski18 said:

Aren't the Sox getting a PTBNL or cash for Kopech as well from the Dodgers?

 

I'd assume Sox will be getting a player because he was awesome with them. 

 

They got two A-ball guys who Pipeline ranks #13 and #14 in the system.

Jeral Perez

Alexander Albertus

The MLB Pipeline write-ups leave a lot to be inspired, but guys do come from nowhere.

[Quin]

3 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

The issue isn't what we got for Kopech, it's what we didn't get for Fedde.

Ding ding ding.

I'd honestly have been fine with Perez and Albertus for Kopech. Which makes it Pham and Fedde for Vargas, which, what the f***?

Edit: Or even Kopech for one of Perez/Albertus. 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

The issue what we got for Kopech, it's what we didn't get for Fedde.

The issue is we constantly replace major league talent from the 2019-21 rosters with less than replacement value and keep getting worse instead of better.

Fedde Kopech Crochet and Robert were transformed into just a negative asset so far.

The next time we turn out a stud SS or 2B will be the first time since Tim Anderson and Ray Durham.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Quin said:

They got two A-ball guys who Pipeline ranks #13 and #14 in the system.

Jeral Perez

Alexander Albertus

The MLB Pipeline write-ups leave a lot to be inspired, but guys do come from nowhere.

The last real significant contributors on the position player side to come from basically nowhere are Narvaez, McCann and Yermin.

The rest were first or second round draft picks (Sheets, who probably carries negligible overall value statistically.)

Romy for the Red Sox, I guess…if you want to count him.

[hi8is]

39 minutes ago, Quin said:

Pham, Fedde and Edman for Vargas

Unbelievable. Straight up Highway Robbery!!! 

[Buehrle>Wood]

I don't know why half this thread is shitted up by Michael Kopech, who remains the only player in sports history to miss an entire season as a result of breaking up with his girlfriend. 

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, JoeC said:

It was documented at the time:

 

Except weirdly his breaking ball usage wasn't particularly different with the Dodgers and White Sox this year and it was substantially down from 2023 as a starter.

[Harry Chappas]

18 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

I don't know why half this thread is shitted up by Michael Kopech, who remains the only player in sports history to miss an entire season as a result of breaking up with his girlfriend. 

You just won the thread 

[SoxBlanco]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Agree with you on plenty of things. I'm just more inclined to post when I disagree; don't take it personally. I'm a dick in real life too!

Love this post because of the honesty. I might not agree with you all the time (although I agree more than I disagree), but I enjoy reading your posts because they are intelligent and well thought-out. We could use more posters like you. 

[JoeC]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Except weirdly his breaking ball usage wasn't particularly different with the Dodgers and White Sox this year and it was substantially down from 2023 as a starter.

Yeah, that's the confusing part.

I'm half wondering if the change was temporary and just enough to keep the hitters guessing a little more.