Venable named new Sox Manager-per Merkin

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

But this is also not shown in any data.

Kopech actually threw more first pitch strikes, threw more strikes generally speaking, got more called and swinging strikes and etc with the Sox than he did with the Dodgers. He lived in the same spots in the strike zone, his release point was unchanged. There were no mechanical corrections or pitch-mix changes.

While it's easy to say maybe he tried harder or etc, that also implies that Kopech had something extra the Sox couldn't get out of him and that's just not shown in any of the data anywhere.

It does look like Kopech was specifically throwing more pitches slightly outside the zone with the Dodgers, leading to more swings and misses outside the zone.

[2Deep]

I hate this team and organization but the Dodgers didn't fix Kopech.  Ethan Katz had it figured out, just needed Kopech to buy in like he did with Dodgers.

[T R U]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

But this is also not shown in any data.

Kopech actually threw more first pitch strikes, threw more strikes generally speaking, got more called and swinging strikes and etc with the Sox than he did with the Dodgers. He lived in the same spots in the strike zone, his release point was unchanged. There were no mechanical corrections or pitch-mix changes.

While it's easy to say maybe he tried harder or etc, that also implies that Kopech had something extra the Sox couldn't get out of him and that's just not shown in any of the data anywhere.

I would say its almost a certainty that Kopech had something extra the Sox couldn't get out of him that the Dodgers could, maybe mechanics/repertoire or effort. 

Kopech was 100% better with the Dodgers than the White Sox. That's for sure. Whether that was pure dumb luck or coaching/instruction, I don't think you can definitively say either way at this point. 

[Sleepy Harold]

In case anyone wanted to watch/listen to the introductory presser, here ya go.

 

 

[PaleAleSox]

4 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

In case anyone wanted to watch/listen to the introductory presser, here ya go.

 

 

Sorry sir this is a Michael Kopech thread. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

To follow up quickly on the above, I want to dispel the notion that Kopech was saved by the Dodgers.

The difference between Dodgers and White Sox Kopech came down to a few things:

Kopech had a 167 BABIP against with the Dodgers vs 284 with the Sox. Kopech had an LOB% of 90% when his career average is around 77% which is around league average. Historically he's HR/FB ratio was 14% and with the Dodgers is was 4%. None of those things are sustainable nor are they adjustments that the Dodgers made to Kopech.

His pitch mix was basically unchanged - he threw his slider 2% more and his fastball 2% less, but the White Sox were actually the org that scrapped the Curve and the slider generally this year and told him to throw more fastballs. The fastball itself actually had slightly more quality with the Sox than it did with the Dodgers.

Kopech was the same guy in both places he just got different results. That's baseball sometimes.

Hey! We agree on something haha. The narrative that the Dodgers fixed Michael Kopech is insane. He just actually started doing the things that Brian Bannister told him to do. It started with his last five appearances with the White Sox. It's a big reason why the Sox should've been able to get more for him in the trade. 

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, T R U said:

I would say its almost a certainty that Kopech had something extra the Sox couldn't get out of him that the Dodgers could, maybe mechanics/repertoire or effort. 

Kopech was 100% better with the Dodgers than the White Sox. That's for sure. Whether that was pure dumb luck or coaching/instruction, I don't think you can definitively say either way at this point. 

Better defense behind him in the out field and SS 2B 1B?

Higher quality catcher in Smith to work with?

More confidence/conviction behind his pitches?

The flyball pitcher can be aided by the marine layer/fall night air in So Cal...especially late season in non day games.

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Hey! We agree on something haha. The narrative that the Dodgers fixed Michael Kopech is insane. He just actually started doing the things that Brian Bannister told him to do. It started with his last five appearances with the White Sox. It's a big reason why the Sox should've been able to get more for him in the trade. 

Isn't five consecutive appearances also SSS?

[bmags]

if grady's up for it I"d prefer him be in the minors again, between him, santos, jirschele that's a much better set of voices for development based on what we saw last year.

 

[Tony]

20 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Hey! We agree on something haha. The narrative that the Dodgers fixed Michael Kopech is insane. He just actually started doing the things that Brian Bannister told him to do. It started with his last five appearances with the White Sox. It's a big reason why the Sox should've been able to get more for him in the trade. 

So to be clear, the argument you are making is the World Series Champions had no impact on Michael Kopech, but instead the success he found in LA can all be attributed to his learnings from the 41-121 White Sox? Just want to be on the same page. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

57 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It does look like Kopech was specifically throwing more pitches slightly outside the zone with the Dodgers, leading to more swings and misses outside the zone.

These numbers were in line with his expected outcome possibilities - nothing the Dodgers did here.

[caulfield12]

30 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Hey! We agree on something haha. The narrative that the Dodgers fixed Michael Kopech is insane. He just actually started doing the things that Brian Bannister told him to do. It started with his last five appearances with the White Sox. It's a big reason why the Sox should've been able to get more for him in the trade. 

How about 10 of the 18 batters he faced in those five Sox appearances were below 100 ops+?????

Brooks Lee 64

Heim 72

Foscue -52

K Hayes 61

Kepler twice 91

Wallner and Seager were the only two exceptional hitters he faced...Semien exactly at 100.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, nitetrain8601 said:

 

So your evidence that Kopech is the same ole pitcher is that he had better stats with the Dodgers, threw his fastball less, slider more and "that's just not sustainable"

Is that the argument I'm reading?

He clearly was a better player with the Dodgers. 12 innings of work, you can maybe argue is a sample size. Or maybe "He hadn't pitched all year, came back a week before being traded and here we are". 

You are arguing that he's the same pitcher with evidence, literally pointing to the contrary.

2% is not a change in pitch mix. That is, well within the expected outcomes of his next 30 innings based on his mix with the White Sox. The problem with most people that look at statistics and data is they have no idea what it means or is telling them. A change in pitch mix is an intentional alteration of your pitch selection that would not be in line with the typical fluctuations of your current mix.

So to answer your question, not it's not the argument you're reading.

My evidence showed the exact opposite. Kopech's OUTCOMES were different with the Dodgers but his expected outcomes were very much in line with how he performed with the White Sox. Outcomes, over small samples, are heavily subjugated by noise and not anything of actual meaning.

Kopech was just as likely to go to the Dodgers and see his BABIP go up as he was to see it go down. The fact it went down 50% and his LOB% went up 20% have nothing to do with Michael Kopech and are not things he controls.

[caulfield12]

What changed besides the team?

In order to find the right balance with the fastball, Kopech had to find the right breaking ball. It wasn’t necessarily the slider he’d been throwing in Chicago. He’s switched over to a cutter that’s three miles per hour slower and has four fewer inches of drop than the slider. That lack of movement is the point.

“The cutter is a pitch that I can just rip a little bit more, like a fastball, stay through it easier,” Kopech told Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. “I can throw it more in the strike zone with less action, rather than trying to turn over a slider. I can find a place for both, but that cutter is playing for me well in the zone.”

Since coming to Los Angeles, no hitter has gotten a hit off his cutter anywhere in the strike zone, or even in the “shadow” area just around the strike zone. Those cutters have led to extra strikes and the count leverage to let that fastball rip above the zone, his bread and butter as a reliever.

https://dodgersnation.com/how-did-the-dodgers-fix-michael-kopech/2024/09/13/

Edited 2 hours ago by caulfield12

[Milkman delivers]

11 hours ago, greg775 said:

True Lip, but we now have a good respected manager.

Greg, you do this all the time. You attach to an idea and it’s then an unquestionable truth.

Venable is not a good manager. Not yet, at least. He hasn’t done the job yet. Don’t get ahead of yourself. He may be the team’s saving grace, or he may be another Grifol.

[caulfield12]

"The July 29 trade that moved Michael Kopech from the Chicago White Sox to the Dodgers was like going from the outhouse to the penthouse for the flame-throwing reliever.

Kopech went from turmoil on a 100-game losing team to fighting for a pennant and possibly becoming a high-leverage closer."

Bonus points for that description, lol.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

55 minutes ago, T R U said:

I would say its almost a certainty that Kopech had something extra the Sox couldn't get out of him that the Dodgers could, maybe mechanics/repertoire or effort. 

Kopech was 100% better with the Dodgers than the White Sox. That's for sure. Whether that was pure dumb luck or coaching/instruction, I don't think you can definitively say either way at this point. 

I'm going to bow out of this conversation because you have all just chosen to believe your own narratives.

Mechanics - No release point changes for Kopech, his arm and ball angle were on the same plane. No one makes big mechanical changes in the middle of a season.

Repertoire - I've already shown pretty clearly this was unchanged, and his Velo was basically the exact same as well.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

40 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Hey! We agree on something haha. The narrative that the Dodgers fixed Michael Kopech is insane. He just actually started doing the things that Brian Bannister told him to do. It started with his last five appearances with the White Sox. It's a big reason why the Sox should've been able to get more for him in the trade. 

Agree with you on plenty of things. I'm just more inclined to post when I disagree; don't take it personally. I'm a dick in real life too!

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm going to bow out of this conversation because you have all just chosen to believe your own narratives.

Mechanics - No release point changes for Kopech, his arm and ball angle were on the same plane. No one makes big mechanical changes in the middle of a season.

Repertoire - I've already shown pretty clearly this was unchanged, and his Velo was basically the exact same as well.

See cutter vs. slider argument above highlighted in The Athletic.

Clearly a pretty significant change in his repertoire that happened quite quickly.

Everyone could see his slider was a pitch he was struggling to throw consistently with the Sox.

Edited 2 hours ago by caulfield12

[Lip Man 1]

https://soxmachine.com/2024/10/will-venable-can-only-say-so-much-on-first-day-with-white-sox/

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

What changed besides the team?

In order to find the right balance with the fastball, Kopech had to find the right breaking ball. It wasn’t necessarily the slider he’d been throwing in Chicago. He’s switched over to a cutter that’s three miles per hour slower and has four fewer inches of drop than the slider. That lack of movement is the point.

“The cutter is a pitch that I can just rip a little bit more, like a fastball, stay through it easier,” Kopech told Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. “I can throw it more in the strike zone with less action, rather than trying to turn over a slider. I can find a place for both, but that cutter is playing for me well in the zone.”

Since coming to Los Angeles, no hitter has gotten a hit off his cutter anywhere in the strike zone, or even in the “shadow” area just around the strike zone. Those cutters have led to extra strikes and the count leverage to let that fastball rip above the zone, his bread and butter as a reliever.

https://dodgersnation.com/how-did-the-dodgers-fix-michael-kopech/2024/09/13/

LOL his new sliders was as shitty as his old one. You could actually argue his slider was shittier with the Dodgers (although I'd say it was a net wash), but that was going to make people's heads explode if I argued that while his results were so much better so I just let that one go.

Edited 1 hour ago by Look at Ray Ray Run

[ChiSox59]

Has anyone found audio / video to the beat writer scrum after the press conference? Ive heard some bits and pieces on the CHGO podcast, but would love to listen to the whole thing.  Thanks in advance to anyone that shares. 

My biggest takeaway from the presser was how drastically different it was than Pedro's.  Basically no frills.  All over video conference.  No put a jersey on.  No rah rah. No Jerry.  To me, it means the Sox (or at least Getz) can read the room.  Not surprised, just found it interesting.

Looking forward to the next chapter.  

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

LOL his new sliders was as shitty as his old one. You could actually argue his slider was shittier with the Dodgers (although I'd say it was a net wash), but that was going to make people's heads explode if I argued that while his results were so much better so I just let that one go.

"Since coming to Los Angeles, no hitter has gotten a hit off his cutter anywhere in the strike zone, or even in the “shadow” area just around the strike zone. Those cutters have led to extra strikes and the count leverage to let that fastball rip above the zone, his bread and butter as a reliever."

Clearly two differentiated pitches...but that's where charting gets more complicated.

Cutter sweeper slider.  All with different spin and drop rates.

Edited 1 hour ago by caulfield12

[WhiteSox2023]

11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Has anyone found audio / video to the beat writer scrum after the press conference? Ive heard some bits and pieces on the CHGO podcast, but would love to listen to the whole thing.  Thanks in advance to anyone that shares. 

My biggest takeaway from the presser was how drastically different it was than Pedro's.  Basically no frills.  All over video conference.  No put a jersey on.  No rah rah. No Jerry.  To me, it means the Sox (or at least Getz) can read the room.  Not surprised, just found it interesting.

Looking forward to the next chapter.  

Isn’t it at the second half of this video?

 

Edited 1 hour ago by WhiteSox2023

[Milkman delivers]

50 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Isn't five consecutive appearances also SSS?

That jumped out at me. 43 innings is a small sample size. 24 innings is a small sample size. But 5 appearances? Clearly enough to say the Sox righted him.

And if the Sox did fix him, and then traded him for the garbage they acquired, then that speaks even less of Getz.