Free Agent Signing Estimates per Athletic

[bmags]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5893223/2024/11/04/mlb-top-free-agents-juan-soto-contract/

I kinda wonder if the tv contracts will cause more compression in the mid tier than this expects, but wanted to bring out two position players I was wondering if we'd kick tires on a re-birth.

Allow me to dislodge my brain and imagine some things - the sox sign some players they hope will improve the ball club and also be eminently tradeable.

First thought - The starting staffs of the AL Central are extremely right handed. There's like 3 across 4 teams at the moment. Platoon outfielders are always a decent shot at trading away in july.

The best free agents against RHP were: Juan Soto (I'd sign him! great guy), Joc, Adames, Profar, Santander.

Is this the year for Joc? They estimate 1 yr 16 mil, I think that's probably right. But one to watch, as I could see him still out there in early March. I would put him signing with the sox at 2%, but his 150 wRC+ vs. RHP is nice, and he walks more vs. LHP.

Jurickson Profar - it would be awesome. Can you imagine Benintendi and Profar in Lf and RF? sorry, i'd strike this as they see him getting 3 for $50, which is reasonable but makes no sense for the sox.

Teoscar/Santander were getting long term, $20+mill deals.

On down the list. Some realistic options

Jesse Winker - predicted 2 yrs $17. Winker is a guy this board had advocated for for last 3 years, so I'd put it likely we sign him when he turns 32 in season and declines. But honestly I do wonder. It's hard to express just how much better Winker is as a hitter than anything we had last year. Seems like a guy we could trade to the braves mid season when their outfielders get hurt.

Conforto - 1 year, $10 mill. Last year conforto was better vs lefties , but getting an actual RHH may make sense, and if he, years later, is healthy (lol) and shining, this could be a valuable shot. Also gets him out of SF.

Kepler - Kepler was  bad last year, and his weakness against fastballs may mean he's cooked. But bad kepler last year would have been one of our best players. He actually wasn't very good vs. RHP, but he is a lefty, and again, if he reverts?

Predicted at 1 yr 10 mill

Verdugo - 1 year $8 mill

In many ways I think Verdugo is maybe the most white sox player of all time. Disappointing, plays like an idiot. Hahn would be all over this. And I do think it makes sense, if he recovers a bit, you get a player with LHH against our RHP division (he was awful vs RHP last year, but better than most of our hitters). He's only 28. 

Anyway, there is a question here of bounce back vs. old production. Conforto / Kepler / Verdugo are your bounce back guys, could have more value.

Winker could easily regress and be a stinker too, but when he hits he isn't as jekyll and hyde as the rest.

Anyway I'd sign Pete ALonso and stick him in RF so Vaughn can stay at first. 

 

 

[bmags]

hmm, brought out more. Was just gonna highlight Tyler O'Neill too, as an opposite approach in that he crushes LHP and we didn't crush anything. But they gave him more than I was expecting.

[Balta1701]

Current White Sox guaranteed money:

$17.1 million Benintendi
$15 million Robert
$5 million buyout Moncada
$500k buyout Stassi

$37.6 million there.

Possible arb guys:
Lopez - would probably make $5.1 million.
Vaughn - would probably make $6.4 million.
Crochet - estimate of $2.9 million.
Sheets - $2.6 million.
Flexen - arb eligible but no estimate on that page, maybe like $3 million?

Worst possible setup looks like the White Sox have $56 million committed if they keep everyone, less if they cut or trade some of the arb guys.

[bmags]

my working assumption is lopez, sheets out. Lopez should have never been tendered last year.

 

[46DidIt]

I still don’t see how Vaughn’s salary doubles in arb after a worse season

 

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

I still don’t see how Vaughn’s salary doubles in arb after a worse season

 

Because that's the downside of Arb.  It’s why dudes get non tendered

[Tnetennba]

Watch them dump Benintendi with Crochet and sign Verdugo thinking he's a name that will appease Sox fans.

[Bob Sacamano]

38 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Watch them dump Benintendi with Crochet and sign Verdugo thinking he's a name that will appease Sox fans.

He feels like a White Sox signing.

[T R U]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

my working assumption is lopez, sheets out. Lopez should have never been tendered last year.

I agree with this, but at the same time find it hard to believe they would non tender Gavin Sheets at 2ish million with how much run he got last season.

[wegner]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Current White Sox guaranteed money:

$17.1 million Benintendi
$15 million Robert
$5 million buyout Moncada
$500k buyout Stassi

$37.6 million there.

Possible arb guys:
Lopez - would probably make $5.1 million.
Vaughn - would probably make $6.4 million.
Crochet - estimate of $2.9 million.
Sheets - $2.6 million.
Flexen - arb eligible but no estimate on that page, maybe like $3 million?

Worst possible setup looks like the White Sox have $56 million committed if they keep everyone, less if they cut or trade some of the arb guys.

Haha, I totally forgot about Stassi....that was a terrific signing.

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Current White Sox guaranteed money:

$17.1 million Benintendi
$15 million Robert
$5 million buyout Moncada
$500k buyout Stassi

$37.6 million there.

Possible arb guys:
Lopez - would probably make $5.1 million.
Vaughn - would probably make $6.4 million.
Crochet - estimate of $2.9 million.
Sheets - $2.6 million.
Flexen - arb eligible but no estimate on that page, maybe like $3 million?

Worst possible setup looks like the White Sox have $56 million committed if they keep everyone, less if they cut or trade some of the arb guys.

The Orioles are responsible for both Jimenez buyouts of $3 million?

Or there's just one...voiding 2026?

What about Liam Hendriks?

Hendriks is owed a $15 million buyout that will be paid in 10 equal installments from 2024-33

After his option for the upcoming season was declined, Jimenez is due a $3 million buyout, which the Orioles and the White Sox will split.

https://clutchpoints.com/orioles-news-decision-eloy-jimenez-future

Then you have the Sox eating at least one more year on Grifol's deal...basically between these three another $4 million wasted, roughly.

Edited November 4 by caulfield12

[46DidIt]

On 11/4/2024 at 1:42 PM, southsider2k5 said:

Because that's the downside of Arb.  It’s why dudes get non tendered

Yeah but under arb rules minimum increase is 10%. I could see a 25% increase but more than double?

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

Yeah but under arb rules minimum increase is 10%. I could see a 25% increase but more than double?

The system is made for comps, and also builds in a salary suppression system which lessons after each year until the last year they are a full scale.  Just the removal of a level of suppression from year 4 to year 5 is a big increase.  It's literally now the system is built.  Look it up if you don't believe me.

[ChiSox59]

On 11/4/2024 at 10:16 AM, Balta1701 said:

Current White Sox guaranteed money:

$17.1 million Benintendi
$15 million Robert
$5 million buyout Moncada
$500k buyout Stassi

$37.6 million there.

Possible arb guys:
Lopez - would probably make $5.1 million.
Vaughn - would probably make $6.4 million.
Crochet - estimate of $2.9 million.
Sheets - $2.6 million.
Flexen - arb eligible but no estimate on that page, maybe like $3 million?

Worst possible setup looks like the White Sox have $56 million committed if they keep everyone, less if they cut or trade some of the arb guys.

I will never understand why buy-out figures would be counted for the following season. Using Moncada and Stassi as an example, those dollars are/were paid in 2024 (literally already paid), months before even reporting to 2025 spring training. IMO, they shouldn't be factored into 2025 payroll estimates. 

Also, re: Flexen he is a FA.  It was a surprise to me when I saw it, but must have something to do with coming over from Korea or wherever he was.  He has under 6 years of service so typically would not be a FA, but he is.  Kind of a bummer because he would be useful to keep around as back-end rotation insurance / long relief. 

Edited November 6 by ChiSox59

[Bob Sacamano]

38 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I will never understand why buy-out figures would be counted for the following season. Using Moncada and Stassi as an example, those dollars are/were paid in 2024 (literally already paid), months before even reporting to 2025 spring training. IMO, they shouldn't be factored into 2025 payroll estimates. 

Also, re: Flexen he is a FA.  It was a surprise to me when I saw it, but must have something to do with coming over from Korea or wherever he was.  He has under 6 years of service so typically would not be a FA, but he is.  Kind of a bummer because he would be useful to keep around as back-end rotation insurance / long relief. 

Are they for sure? I know, for example, in Moncada's case, he either gets his $29M salary in 2025 or a buyout. Is the buyout for sure already paid or is it paid in 2025, which the option was for? If you look at it like that, I get why it would be calculated in the 2025 payroll.

The good thing is, at least according to Spotrac, is it doesn't count against the Luxury Tax number.

[ChiSox59]

11 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Are they for sure? I know, for example, in Moncada's case, he either gets his $29M salary in 2025 or a buyout. Is the buyout for sure already paid or is it paid in 2025, which the option was for? If you look at it like that, I get why it would be calculated in the 2025 payroll.

The good thing is, at least according to Spotrac, is it doesn't count against the Luxury Tax number.

I am almost certain that the buy-out is due when the player is bought out.  Moncada has already been bought out, so I assume that has already been paid.  I guess its possible that it could depend on the language within each individual contract, but not sure why any agent would ask for anything other than it paid out immediately as $1>$1 later. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Are they for sure? I know, for example, in Moncada's case, he either gets his $29M salary in 2025 or a buyout. Is the buyout for sure already paid or is it paid in 2025, which the option was for? If you look at it like that, I get why it would be calculated in the 2025 payroll.

The good thing is, at least according to Spotrac, is it doesn't count against the Luxury Tax number.

$24 million salary plus the $5 million buyout to be precise...