Revisiting the Bummer Trade

[KipWellsFan]

Hey guys,

Not a lot of news at the moment, so I figured I would revisit this trade. Number in parentheses is 2024 bWAR.

Atlanta Braves (0.6)

• Aaron Bummer (0.6)

Chicago White Sox (1.2)

• Jared Shuster (1.0)
• Michael Soroka (0.6)
• Nicky Lopez (0.2)
• Braden Shewmake (-0.6)
• Riley Gowens (-) 145Ks in 122 IP over A+ and AA (he's kind of old though)

Hard to overlook Michael Soroka's 0-10 record, but thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, I noticed that his numbers were excellent once he was in the bullpen:

IP: 36.0 Ks: 60 BBs: 20 HRs: 3 ERA: 2.75 FIP: 2.75

Conclusion: The trade was a wash.

Edited November 5 by KipWellsFan
This is bWAR not fWAR

[WhiteSox2023]

The Braves re-worked Bummer’s contract to retain him for two more years.

Meanwhile, other than Gowens, you wouldn’t want back one of the four other players that the Sox received for Bummer.

[southsider2k5]

Trading Bummer was never the problem.  It was the return targeting guys who were approaching free agency and DFA status instead of trying to refill the farm system.  The problem was Getz trying to get a few more wins in 2024 versus worrying about 2028 and beyond.

[almagest]

Yes I'm sure so many teams were beating down the door to trade valuable prospects for one year of a guy with a 6.79 ERA in 2023 who walked 5.6 per 9, and seemed to fold under any pressure. Switching out guys on the 40 man bubble for prospects would've returned marginal ones at best, and people would've bitched about that, too. GMs aren't going to overpay for performance several years out of date, nor are they going to just buy the "his FIP was so much lower so give me good prospects!" argument either.

Soroka was a good flier to see if he could recapture some of his 2019 success. He ended up being a solid bullpen guy and I wouldn't mind seeing him back, though since he elected free agency that's probably not an option.

Schuster produced 1 WAR in 73 innings as a long man/spot starter and should be an ok arb eligible addition going forward for a bad team.

Lopez did what he was expected to - play good defense at a non-premium position and not hit at all. He was brought in to likely fill in a gap until the Sox felt guys like Sosa were more ready. If he's back I'll be really surprised.

Shewmake sucks and likely won't be with the team. At best they'll stick him in AAA. He was a former first round pick, though, and is the type of guy the Sox should be running through to see if they can get anything out of them.

Gowens was age appropriate for AA and pitched solidly. He also strikes out over 10 batters per 9. He'll probably be in AAA next season and could end up being a useful bullpen guy. Not sure he's a starter long-term, but we'll see.

Bummer rebounded nicely with a team that could play defense and actually scout. His contract extension has no bearing on the value of the trade.

Overall, the trade was fine.

Edited November 5 by almagest

[whitesoxfan99]

2 hours ago, KipWellsFan said:

Hey guys,

Not a lot of news at the moment, so I figured I would revisit this trade. Number in parentheses is 2024 fWAR.

Atlanta Braves (0.6)

• Aaron Bummer (0.6)

Chicago White Sox (1.2)

• Jared Shuster (1.0)
• Michael Soroka (0.6)
• Nicky Lopez (0.2)
• Braden Shewmake (-0.6)
• Riley Gowens (-) 145Ks in 122 IP over A+ and AA (he's kind of old though)

Hard to overlook Michael Soroka's 0-10 record, but thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, I noticed that his numbers were excellent once he was in the bullpen:

IP: 36.0 Ks: 60 BBs: 20 HRs: 3 ERA: 2.75 FIP: 2.75

Conclusion: The trade was a wash.

Using bWAR for pitchers when Shuster sucked but got lucky is kind of silly.

[Texsox]

This would be a footnote in a successful franchise season. For us, it's meat and potatoes. 

[WestEddy]

50 minutes ago, almagest said:

Yes I'm sure so many teams were beating down the door to trade valuable prospects for one year of a guy with a 6.79 ERA in 2023 who walked 5.6 per 9, and seemed to fold under any pressure. Switching out guys on the 40 man bubble for prospects would've returned marginal ones at best, and people would've bitched about that, too. GMs aren't going to overpay for performance several years out of date, nor are they going to just buy the "his FIP was so much lower so give me good prospects!" argument either.

Soroka was a good flier to see if he could recapture some of his 2019 success. He ended up being a solid bullpen guy and I wouldn't mind seeing him back, though since he elected free agency that's probably not an option.

Schuster produced 1 WAR in 73 innings as a long man/spot starter and should be an ok arb eligible addition going forward for a bad team.

Lopez did what he was expected to - play good defense at a non-premium position and not hit at all. He was brought in to likely fill in a gap until the Sox felt guys like Sosa were more ready. If he's back I'll be really surprised.

Shewmake sucks and likely won't be with the team. At best they'll stick him in AAA. He was a former first round pick, though, and is the type of guy the Sox should be running through to see if they can get anything out of them.

Gowens was age appropriate for AA and pitched solidly. He also strikes out over 10 batters per 9. He'll probably be in AAA next season and could end up being a useful bullpen guy. Not sure he's a starter long-term, but we'll see.

Bummer rebounded nicely with a team that could play defense and actually scout. His contract extension has no bearing on the value of the trade.

Overall, the trade was fine.

I agree with most of this. Shuster is league minimum for the next 2 seasons. He's a cheap body to eat up innings. Soroka made MLBTR's top 50 free agent list ahead of David Robinson and Tommy Kahnle. Turning Bummer into 3 bullpen arms is a fine trade. I would love to see all of these system-emptying trades everybody knows were on the table for Bummer. 

[KipWellsFan]

1 hour ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

Using bWAR for pitchers when Shuster sucked but got lucky is kind of silly.

Fair point. It looks better for the Braves using fWAR.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, almagest said:

Yes I'm sure so many teams were beating down the door to trade valuable prospects for one year of a guy with a 6.79 ERA in 2023 who walked 5.6 per 9, and seemed to fold under any pressure. Switching out guys on the 40 man bubble for prospects would've returned marginal ones at best, and people would've bitched about that, too. GMs aren't going to overpay for performance several years out of date, nor are they going to just buy the "his FIP was so much lower so give me good prospects!" argument either.

Soroka was a good flier to see if he could recapture some of his 2019 success. He ended up being a solid bullpen guy and I wouldn't mind seeing him back, though since he elected free agency that's probably not an option.

Schuster produced 1 WAR in 73 innings as a long man/spot starter and should be an ok arb eligible addition going forward for a bad team.

Lopez did what he was expected to - play good defense at a non-premium position and not hit at all. He was brought in to likely fill in a gap until the Sox felt guys like Sosa were more ready. If he's back I'll be really surprised.

Shewmake sucks and likely won't be with the team. At best they'll stick him in AAA. He was a former first round pick, though, and is the type of guy the Sox should be running through to see if they can get anything out of them.

Gowens was age appropriate for AA and pitched solidly. He also strikes out over 10 batters per 9. He'll probably be in AAA next season and could end up being a useful bullpen guy. Not sure he's a starter long-term, but we'll see.

Bummer rebounded nicely with a team that could play defense and actually scout. His contract extension has no bearing on the value of the trade.

Overall, the trade was fine.

Soroka is gone after this year.  He was always an awful piece to have in this deal for that fact alone.

Schuster is fine as a piece of a deal like this.

Lopez was a totally short term piece, who offered no upside at all.  He was a maxed out piece we could have waited a week and paid a FA price for instead after he was DFA'd.

Shewmake, I don't really mind as a piece either.

Gowens is a guy who when you look at the "average" age for a level looks ok, but once you subtract out the guys who are older guy going no where, he is a pretty old guy to be at the low of a level.  He was 24 starting out in High A.  He SHOULD have been dominating that level, yet was pretty mediocre in his half season there.  He was better in Birmingham, but for a pitcher that is also pretty expected.  I am ok with a guy like this at the end of a deal because at least he has six years of control.

Lopez and Soroka were definitely guys to try to win a couple of more games with in 2024, and that failed miserably.  I would have rather taken overlooked rookie ball guys like by scouts versus never has been major leaguers.  Find a one tool guy.  Find a guy who had success without measureables.  Just something other than guys who won't help you down the road.

[Balta1701]

45 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I agree with most of this. Shuster is league minimum for the next 2 seasons. He's a cheap body to eat up innings. Soroka made MLBTR's top 50 free agent list ahead of David Robinson and Tommy Kahnle. Turning Bummer into 3 bullpen arms is a fine trade. I would love to see all of these system-emptying trades everybody knows were on the table for Bummer. 

Both Soroka and Lopez were about to be non-tendered by the Braves, and especially Lopez could have been had for cheaper if the White Sox simply waited for him to be non-tendered and jumped on him with a $3 million contract offer.

But at least Getz has no spending constraints, and we know from the last GM that wasting money in down seasons isn't a problem that ever comes back to bite a White Sox GM in the tail.

[Springfield Soxfan]

I had high hopes for Soroka when this trade was made; however, his performance never matched optimism.  

[almagest]

26 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Soroka is gone after this year.  He was always an awful piece to have in this deal for that fact alone.

Schuster is fine as a piece of a deal like this.

Lopez was a totally short term piece, who offered no upside at all.  He was a maxed out piece we could have waited a week and paid a FA price for instead after he was DFA'd.

Shewmake, I don't really mind as a piece either.

Gowens is a guy who when you look at the "average" age for a level looks ok, but once you subtract out the guys who are older guy going no where, he is a pretty old guy to be at the low of a level.  He was 24 starting out in High A.  He SHOULD have been dominating that level, yet was pretty mediocre in his half season there.  He was better in Birmingham, but for a pitcher that is also pretty expected.  I am ok with a guy like this at the end of a deal because at least he has six years of control.

Lopez and Soroka were definitely guys to try to win a couple of more games with in 2024, and that failed miserably.  I would have rather taken overlooked rookie ball guys like by scouts versus never has been major leaguers.  Find a one tool guy.  Find a guy who had success without measureables.  Just something other than guys who won't help you down the road.

I can see the rationale behind Soroka and Lopez, and I’d bet they were basically free. I doubt Getz turned down anything useful to take those guys. Could they have instead gotten a low minors guy without any success so far that their scouts/analytics loved? Probably. I also don’t trust those guys at all. Not yet, anyway. Hopefully we can build the infrastructure to start making those kinds of deals with some confidence.
 

Overall, if we want to say that Getz’s trades have all felt a little light, then I can agree with that.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, almagest said:

I can see the rationale behind Soroka and Lopez, and I’d bet they were basically free. I doubt Getz turned down anything useful to take those guys. Could they have instead gotten a low minors guy without any success so far that their scouts/analytics loved? Probably. I also don’t trust those guys at all. Not yet, anyway. Hopefully we can build the infrastructure to start making those kinds of deals with some confidence.
 

Overall, if we want to say that Getz’s trades have all felt a little light, then I can agree with that.

They should have been less than free.  That's the point.  They shouldn't have been in the deal at all.  I don't know exactly what the other deals looked like, but if this was my only offer, I would have sat on Bummer and road him into the season betting on a turnaround.

[almagest]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

They should have been less than free.  That's the point.  They shouldn't have been in the deal at all.  I don't know exactly what the other deals looked like, but if this was my only offer, I would have sat on Bummer and road him into the season betting on a turnaround.

With this crappy defense behind him, and with  less than half a year left on his contract? No way.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, almagest said:

With this crappy defense behind him, and with  less than half a year left on his contract? No way.

Bummer had $14.75 million in option years at the back of that contract. The Braves got him to agree to 2 years, $13 million, suggesting they probably would have picked up the option.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, almagest said:

With this crappy defense behind him, and with  less than half a year left on his contract? No way.

He had a deal for 25 and an option for 26.  He would have been fine.  It was a gamble worth taking versus taking on players that would be long gone before the Sox sniff 60 wins again.

[almagest]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

He had a deal for 25 and an option for 26.  He would have been fine.  It was a gamble worth taking versus taking on players that would be long gone before the Sox sniff 60 wins again.

There’s not a whole lot of surplus value on Bummer at $7.25 or $7.5 million. He’s at $3.5 million next year on his refreshed deal. That would’ve been worth something in a deadline trade, assuming he rebounded here.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, almagest said:

There’s not a whole lot of surplus value on Bummer at $7.25 or $7.5 million. He’s at $3.5 million next year on his refreshed deal. That would’ve been worth something in a deadline trade, assuming he rebounded here.

As opposed to what we got in this deal?  Again, I would rather take a chance vs taking on free agents and DFA candidates at more than market value.  Hell even if we got a real prospect in this deal to cover for taking on salary, I could have even handled this, but we got third rate prospects plus negative value players.  This deal was awful as a whole.

[almagest]

24 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

As opposed to what we got in this deal?  Again, I would rather take a chance vs taking on free agents and DFA candidates at more than market value.  Hell even if we got a real prospect in this deal to cover for taking on salary, I could have even handled this, but we got third rate prospects plus negative value players.  This deal was awful as a whole.

You just said Schuster, Shewmake and Gowens were fine as pieces of this deal. Three "fine" pieces plus two throw ins at the major league level sounds like pretty fair value for a reliever who had a 6 ERA at that time, and after a good season still renegotiated his deal for far less money in 2025.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, almagest said:

You just said Schuster, Shewmake and Gowens were fine as pieces of this deal. Three "fine" pieces plus two throw ins at the major league level sounds like pretty fair value for a reliever who had a 6 ERA at that time, and after a good season still renegotiated his deal for far less money in 2025.

 

 

Fine, as in having them in the deal wasn't a problem, but they sure as s%*# weren't enough, especially when taking on as much short term dead-weight as the Sox did.

[almagest]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Fine, as in having them in the deal wasn't a problem, but they sure as s%*# weren't enough, especially when taking on as much short term dead-weight as the Sox did.

I already agreed the deal was a little light and swapping Soroka and Lopez for a lower level/flawed diamond in the rough the Sox thought they could polish would have been ideal in theory, though I do not trust the Sox as currently constructed to make the most out of players like that. It sounds like you were expecting an impact prospect of some kind, though, which is 100% unrealistic for a middle reliever coming off a terrible year.

Edited November 5 by almagest

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Both Soroka and Lopez were about to be non-tendered by the Braves, and especially Lopez could have been had for cheaper if the White Sox simply waited for him to be non-tendered and jumped on him with a $3 million contract offer.

But at least Getz has no spending constraints, and we know from the last GM that wasting money in down seasons isn't a problem that ever comes back to bite a White Sox GM in the tail.

All anybody talked about for Bummer was ... maybe a prospect and a flier. Well, they got Gowens (prospect) and Shuster (flier). Soroka would have cost as much if they grabbed him on waivers. Lopez might have been a little cheaper. Adam Frazier was a free agent utility infielder - signed for $4.5 million. Nicky Lopez was $4.3 million. So, maybe the Sox could have waited out waivers and free agency, and have gotten Nicky Lopez for $100k cheaper? 

I think people are complaining about the Bummer trade just to complain about it. 

[WestEddy]

14 minutes ago, almagest said:

I already agreed the deal was a little light and swapping Soroka and Lopez for a lower level/flawed diamond in the rough the Sox thought they could polish would have been ideal in theory, though I do not trust the Sox as currently constructed to make the most out of players like that. It sounds like you were expecting an impact prospect of some kind, though, which is 100% unrealistic for a middle reliever coming off a terrible year.

Soroka was a fix and flip gamble. He actually would have brought back a player like Banks did if he wasn't in the IL. Soroka was a good piece to get. It was a fine trade. 

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, almagest said:

I already agreed the deal was a little light and swapping Soroka and Lopez for a lower level/flawed diamond in the rough the Sox thought they could polish would have been ideal in theory, though I do not trust the Sox as currently constructed to make the most out of players like that. It sounds like you were expecting an impact prospect of some kind, though, which is 100% unrealistic for a middle reliever coming off a terrible year.

And instead we failed at getting anything out of Soroka and Lopez.  So much better.

[almagest]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And instead we failed at getting anything out of Soroka and Lopez.  So much better.

Yeah, and if Bummer had a 6 ERA for the Sox this year - and odds are he would've been bad on this team, since like 95% of their roster severely under-performed - you'd be upset they didn't trade him when they could get something for him. It's all hindsight.