Revisiting the Bummer Trade

[WestEddy]

2 minutes ago, almagest said:

Yeah, and if Bummer had a 6 ERA for the Sox this year - and odds are he would've been bad on this team, since like 95% of their roster severely under-performed - you'd be upset they didn't trade him when they could get something for him. It's all hindsight.

And we did get something out of Soroka and Lopez. We got a replacement level veteran 2B/utility infielder for $200k less than the Royals paid for Adam Frazier (same production), and they got to take a flier on Soroka, which would have paid off, if he hadn't gotten injured. Soroka might have been cheaper than if he went through free agency. 

I'm still waiting for anyone to post a similar trade where somebody traded a seemingly cooked reliever for a knockout package of prospects and/or reclamation projects who were all cheaper than just signing free agents. Or maybe a rumor where Boston was trying to throw 3 prospects at us for the privilege of fixing Bummer. 

[almagest]

8 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

And we did get something out of Soroka and Lopez. We got a replacement level veteran 2B/utility infielder for $200k less than the Royals paid for Adam Frazier (same production), and they got to take a flier on Soroka, which would have paid off, if he hadn't gotten injured. Soroka might have been cheaper than if he went through free agency. 

I'm still waiting for anyone to post a similar trade where somebody traded a seemingly cooked reliever for a knockout package of prospects and/or reclamation projects who were all cheaper than just signing free agents. Or maybe a rumor where Boston was trying to throw 3 prospects at us for the privilege of fixing Bummer. 

Soroka was a fine gamble, like I said, and he showed some promise as a reliever. Lopez... well he sucks, but I get trying to fill a hole with him until guys like Sosa were actually ready.

The only trade I can think of that is close to fulfilling what SS2k5 seems to want is Shields for Erik Johnson and Tatis Jr, but we don't have the luxury of making trades with Rick Hahn.

Edited November 5 by almagest

[WhiteSox2023]

39 minutes ago, almagest said:

Yeah, and if Bummer had a 6 ERA for the Sox this year - and odds are he would've been bad on this team, since like 95% of their roster severely under-performed - you'd be upset they didn't trade him when they could get something for him. It's all hindsight.

Based on his career, the odds are that Bummer would have had a better ERA than 6 with the Sox last season.  His ERA in 2023 was the worst in his career.  Prior to 2023, Bummer never finished a season with worse than a 4.50 ERA and that was his rookie season.

[almagest]

2 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Based on his career, the odds are that Bummer would have had a better ERA than 6 with the Sox last season.  His ERA in 2023 was the worst in his career.  Prior to 2023, Bummer never finished a season with worse than a 4.50 ERA and that was his rookie season.

So what? These "career odds" don't matter when GMs are evaluating who they send out in trades. No one is going to pay 2019-2022 prices for him when his most recent year was so bad. There's also zero guarantee he was going to rebound on a team that was at best going to be slightly better than were the year before, and ended up being the worst team of all time with substantial player regressions across the entire roster.

[WhiteSox2023]

15 minutes ago, almagest said:

So what? These "career odds" don't matter when GMs are evaluating who they send out in trades. No one is going to pay 2019-2022 prices for him when his most recent year was so bad. There's also zero guarantee he was going to rebound on a team that was at best going to be slightly better than were the year before, and ended up being the worst team of all time with substantial player regressions across the entire roster.

I was just pointing out that your “odds” statement was, well, odd.  I never said Bummer’s high likelihood of rebounding based on the rest of his career dictated his entire trade value.  But the “odds” were more likely that Bummer would perform better than a 6.79 ERA, as that was the obvious outlier in his career.   He isn’t a 6 ERA guy.  He’s a 3.5 to 3.75 ERA guy.

Edited November 5 by WhiteSox2023

[WhiteSox2023]

58 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

And we did get something out of Soroka and Lopez. We got a replacement level veteran 2B/utility infielder for $200k less than the Royals paid for Adam Frazier (same production), and they got to take a flier on Soroka, which would have paid off, if he hadn't gotten injured. Soroka might have been cheaper than if he went through free agency. 

I'm still waiting for anyone to post a similar trade where somebody traded a seemingly cooked reliever for a knockout package of prospects and/or reclamation projects who were all cheaper than just signing free agents. Or maybe a rumor where Boston was trying to throw 3 prospects at us for the privilege of fixing Bummer. 

Comparing a crappy acquisition (Lopez) to a slightly crappier acquisition (Frazier) doesn’t make Lopez look any better.

Regarding Soroka, considering he was a guy with a history of injuries, it should be no surprise that he…  got injured.

 

Edited November 5 by WhiteSox2023

[almagest]

10 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I was just pointing out that your “odds” statement was odd.  I never said it dictated his trade value.  But the “odds” were more likely that Bummer would perform better than a 6.79 ERA, as that was the obvious outlier in his career.   He isn’t a 6 ERA guy.  He’s a 3.5 to 3.75 ERA guy.

I already covered this - in your best case scenario, there's little surplus value in a 3.5-3.75 ERA, 0.6 WAR middle reliever in August, when he'll be making $7.25 million + a $7.5 million dollar option in the next two years. His contract renegotiation helps to show this. They likely would've gotten a similar package, if not worse.

Edited November 5 by almagest

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Comparing a crappy acquisition (Lopez) to a slightly crappier acquisition (Frazier) doesn’t make Lopez look any better.

Regarding Soroka, considering he was a guy with a history of injuries, it should be no surprise that he…  got injured.

 

 

Maybe we should compare him to Edman instead...hopefully Getz gets a handsome replica trophy from the Dodgers.

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, almagest said:

I already covered this - in your best case scenario, there's little surplus value in a 3.5-3.75 ERA, 0.6 WAR middle reliever in August, when he'll be making $7.25 million + a $7.5 million dollar option in the next two years. His contract renegotiation helps to show this. They likely would've gotten a similar package, if not worse.

If the White Sox had a decent farm system at the upper levels (who was responsible for that???)...they wouldn't have needed to take the Braves' oveepriced mostly garbage, especially Lopez and Shewmake.

[southsider2k5]

3 hours ago, almagest said:

Yeah, and if Bummer had a 6 ERA for the Sox this year - and odds are he would've been bad on this team, since like 95% of their roster severely under-performed - you'd be upset they didn't trade him when they could get something for him. It's all hindsight.

Nah, don't project your panic on to me.  

[almagest]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Nah, don't project your panic on to me.  

🙄

[WhiteSox2023]

31 minutes ago, almagest said:

🙄

95% of the roster performed poorly because they sucked, including the majority of our wizard GM’s putrid acquisitions.

Edited November 6 by WhiteSox2023

[almagest]

18 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

95% of the roster performed poorly because they sucked, including the majority of our wizard GM’s putrid acquisitions.

So then why was Bummer so likely to rebound here?

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, almagest said:

So then why was Bummer so likely to rebound here?

Because Bummer was and still is a better reliever than the majority of the Sox 2024 opening day bullpen.

Opening Day Relief Pitchers (9): Michael Kopech, John Brebbia, Tim Hill, Deivi García, Dominic Leone, Jordan Leasure, Steven Wilson, Tanner Banks, Bryan Shaw

Edited November 6 by WhiteSox2023

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, almagest said:

So then why was Bummer so likely to rebound here?

Obviously the solid pitching coach and development staff of Bannister and Katz, or so I’m told. It’s why the pitching performed at the level it did this season.

[almagest]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Obviously the solid pitching coach and development staff of Bannister and Katz, or so I’m told. It’s why the pitching performed at the level it did this season.

So if you think those guys suck, then why would Bummer rebound here?

[almagest]

24 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Because Bummer was and still is a better reliever than the majority of the Sox 2024 opening day bullpen.

Opening Day Relief Pitchers (9): Michael Kopech, John Brebbia, Tim Hill, Deivi García, Dominic Leone, Jordan Leasure, Steven Wilson, Tanner Banks, Bryan Shaw

Kopech was pretty good in 2021 and 2022, was WAY better than Bummer after he left the Sox, and if you stretch, you can say he returned two low level prospects. Hill was about as good as Bummer this year and was way cheaper. Yankees picked him up for nothing after he stunk with the Sox. Banks was solid and very cheap, and returned one low level prospect. The rest of these guys were either always terrible, too old, or were good previously and regressed here, which doesn't give me confidence that Bummer would've bounced back.

Honestly, by looking at what the Sox got for Kopech and Banks, the Braves might've overpaid.

Edited November 6 by almagest

[WhiteSox2023]

3 minutes ago, almagest said:

Kopech was pretty good in 2021 and 2022, was WAY better than Bummer after he left the Sox, and if you stretch, you can say he returned two low level prospects. Hill was about as good as Bummer this year and was way cheaper. Banks was solid and very cheap, and returned one low level prospect. The rest of these guys were either always terrible, too old, or were good previously and regressed here, which doesn't give me confidence that Bummer would've bounced back.

Honestly, by looking at what the Sox got for Kopech and Banks, the Braves might've overpaid.

They were better after they left the Sox.  What a surprise.

Your last comment is ridiculous.  The Braves were going to non-tender some of those scrubs but Getz did them a favor and took them back in the Bummer trade.  Now, Getz is in the same position as the Braves last offseason, with a bunch of players no one wants.

[Balta1701]

30 minutes ago, almagest said:

So if you think those guys suck, then why would Bummer rebound here?

He wouldn’t.

Taking back the non tender guys still looks worse in hindsight.

[almagest]

11 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

They were better after they left the Sox.  What a surprise.

Your last comment is ridiculous.  The Braves were going to non-tender some of those scrubs but Getz did them a favor and took them back in the Bummer trade.  Now, Getz is in the same position as the Braves last offseason, with a bunch of players no one wants.

Yeah, just like Bummer. Better after he left. Good thing they got rid of him when they could.

The Sox don’t even have a full 40 man roster lol what are you talking about. No one wants most of their 26 man players because they lost 121 games last year and most of them stink, not because of the trade they made with the Braves.

You also know that Lopez and Soroka were the non-tender candidates, right? Not the other three players? And you know Soroka is already gone, and Lopez is probably not coming back, right?

[almagest]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He wouldn’t.

Taking back the non tender guys still looks worse in hindsight.

Cool, so they presumably took the best deal they could and got back a SP prospect who had a good year for the Sox and should be in AAA, a high draft pick SS who struggled and was worth a shot, and a spot starter/long man with team control who was ok for a terrible team. The Braves also threw in a utility infielder who plays good defense and a project starting pitcher the Sox probably hoped could regain some of his 2019 form. Maybe the Sox could’ve gotten one more lower level lotto ticket instead of Soroka and Lopez, but this trade looks fine to me.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, almagest said:

Yeah, just like Bummer. Better after he left. Good thing they got rid of him when they could.

The Sox don’t even have a full 40 man roster lol what are you talking about. No one wants most of their 26 man players because they lost 121 games last year and most of them stink, not because of the trade they made with the Braves.

You also know that Lopez and Soroka were the non-tender candidates, right? Not the other three players? And you know Soroka is already gone, and Lopez is probably not coming back, right?

This is literally proving my point. And now if we are going to use the Burger/Eder trade standard of hindsight,  Shewmake was garbage and is a DFA candidate.  Schuster was awful.  Pretty much the only non-disappointment was the MiLB pitcher who isn't even a top 30 guy anyway.  We literally got nothing of value for Bummer.  We got more for Tanner Banks just by getting a single decent prospect. 

[WhiteSox2023]

21 minutes ago, almagest said:

Yeah, just like Bummer. Better after he left. Good thing they got rid of him when they could.

The Sox don’t even have a full 40 man roster lol what are you talking about. No one wants most of their 26 man players because they lost 121 games last year and most of them stink, not because of the trade they made with the Braves.

You also know that Lopez and Soroka were the non-tender candidates, right? Not the other three players? And you know Soroka is already gone, and Lopez is probably not coming back, right?

Bummer had one bad season out of 8 years in the majors.

Yes, I do know.  Soroka is a free agent.  Lopez wasn’t worth the $4.3 million he was paid last year.  Shuster and Shewmake both blow.  You think Shuster had a good year.  Look at his stats (hits, walks, and strikeouts).  Dude isn’t good, he’s lucky.

Hopefully Gowens turns into something but he’s a 25 year old reliever in AA.

Edited November 6 by WhiteSox2023

[almagest]

3 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Bummer had one bad season out of 8 years in the majors.

Yes, I do know.  Soroka is a free agent.  Lopez wasn’t worth the $4.3 million he was paid last year.  Shuster and Shewmake both blow.  Hopefully Gowens turns into something but he’s a 25 year old reliever in AA.

Gowens is a starter. Also, I don’t think you knew who was a 40 man bubble candidate or not, because you thought they had a roster crunch like the Braves even though both those guys are gone.

[almagest]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is literally proving my point. And now if we are going to use the Burger/Eder trade standard of hindsight,  Shewmake was garbage and is a DFA candidate.  Schuster was awful.  Pretty much the only non-disappointment was the MiLB pitcher who isn't even a top 30 guy anyway.  We literally got nothing of value for Bummer.  We got more for Tanner Banks just by getting a single decent prospect. 

No it isn’t, because Banks was way cheaper and was much better last year. Bummer had low surplus value due to his terrible 2023 and high contract value. I already covered this with Bummer.