Potential Crochet Trade discussion Thread

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 11/10/2024 at 7:05 PM, caulfield12 said:

JR won't even commit to the $700 million Rays' ownership came up for their stadium project...

I wouldn't be at all surprised if JR is sick and preparing his heirs to sell the team as quickly as possible. He's pouring his money into turning the UC are into a real estate  sports complex much like Wrigleyville so his heirs can keep the Bulls and sell the Sox and profit on the Blackhawks rebuild

Stripping the Sox of any long-term money insures he doesn't devalue a team already worth $2B. At this point he's not taking any significant amount of money and reinvesting it in the Sox .

They are literally a lame duck franchise. Anything to do with the 78 property is subterfuge.

He's just letting Getz fiddle with amounts of money insignificant enough not to do any damage. 

Youre getting $85M to hire, fire ,restructure who or what you want to spread out among everyone including the 26 man roster. Go crazy Getzy. The commish can't do anything about it as long as I appear to be trying.

Edited November 12 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[WhiteSox2023]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if JR is sick and preparing his heirs to sell the team as quickly as possible. He's pouring his money into turning the UC are into a real estate  sports complex much like Wrigleyville so his heirs can keep the Bulls and sell the Sox and profit on the Blackhawks rebuild

Stripping the Sox of any long-term money insures he doesn't devalue a team already worth $2B. At this point he's not taking any significant amount of money and reinvesting it in the Sox .

They are literally a lame duck franchise. Anything to do with the 78 property is subterfuge.

He's just letting Getz fiddle with amounts of money insignificant enough not to do any damage. 

Youre getting $85M to hire, fire ,restructure who or what you want to spread out among everyone including the 26 man roster. Go crazy Getzy. The commish can't do anything about it as long as I appear to be trying.

I believe this.  But wouldn’t you think Jerry’s ego as a successful businessman is large enough that he will want to be involved in the sale?  You think he would be looking to sell the team soon, unless his ego is so large that he thinks he has tons of time left to be involved in a sale?

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if JR is sick and preparing his heirs to sell the team as quickly as possible. He's pouring his money into turning the UC are into a real estate  sports complex much like Wrigleyville so his heirs can keep the Bulls and sell the Sox and profit on the Blackhawks rebuild

Stripping the Sox of any long-term money insures he doesn't devalue a team already worth $2B. At this point he's not taking any significant amount of money and reinvesting it in the Sox .

They are literally a lame duck franchise. Anything to do with the 78 property is subterfuge.

He's just letting Getz fiddle with amounts of money insignificant enough not to do any damage. 

Youre getting $85M to hire, fire ,restructure who or what you want to spread out among everyone including the 26 man roster. Go crazy Getzy. The commish can't do anything about it as long as I appear to be trying.

Rather than him being sick, I think that's exactly what a businessman might do while trying to sell or move the team. 

Even if he landed a Soto and it paid for itself in the long term, in the short term that's a lot of money to come up with for new owners, who might be cash-strapped already from buying the team. If he's got a $50 million year liability on the books already and it takes a few years for a group in Nashville to arrange a stadium, that's a few years where he might have to come up with $50 million a year himself. 

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Rather than him being sick, I think that's exactly what a businessman might do while trying to sell or move the team. 

Even if he landed a Soto and it paid for itself in the long term, in the short term that's a lot of money to come up with for new owners, who might be cash-strapped already from buying the team. If he's got a $50 million year liability on the books already and it takes a few years for a group in Nashville to arrange a stadium, that's a few years where he might have to come up with $50 million a year himself. 

The only "big name" signing would have to be someone like Sasaki where there's almost no downside risk on a first big league deal...since the original amount would clearly be in the single digits for millions of dollars committed.

Which is why the odds are approximately 1/1000 of it actually happening.

(JR would still probably blanch at the posting fee "tax" paid...no matter how insignificant compared to Matsumoto's $50+ million posting fee with ORIX.)

Edited November 13 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I believe this.  But wouldn’t you think Jerry’s ego as a successful businessman is large enough that he will want to be involved in the sale?  You think he would be looking to sell the team soon, unless his ego is so large that he thinks he has tons of time left to be involved in a sale?

He is involved in the sale. He's preparing for it now. Hedoent have to physically be here for them to be sold .

He can't be here once he's dead and dying is the way to maxmize or minimize I guess the inheritance taxes.

It's pretty common knowledge at least according to Liptak that's been his plan so the kids don't take a big tax hit.

Edited November 13 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Rather than him being sick, I think that's exactly what a businessman might do while trying to sell or move the team. 

Even if he landed a Soto and it paid for itself in the long term, in the short term that's a lot of money to come up with for new owners, who might be cash-strapped already from buying the team. If he's got a $50 million year liability on the books already and it takes a few years for a group in Nashville to arrange a stadium, that's a few years where he might have to come up with $50 million a year himself. 

When you're 89 you're either sick or finding life fairly difficult physically or mentally . He could be sick now or just preparing for the inevitable .

I just think when he's dead is when the team gets sold. The botttom line is what's important  and the bottom line is his kids don't get stuck paying higher taxes .

[caulfield12]

33 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

When you're 89 you're either sick or finding life fairly difficult physically or mentally . He could be sick now or just preparing for the inevitable .

I just think when he's dead is when the team gets sold. The botttom line is what's important  and the bottom line is his kids don't get stuck paying higher taxes .

flowerman_22

• 27d ago •

I’m stupid so I could be 100% wrong. Wouldn’t this be the worst financial move in the world (yes I know he’s worth billions). Scenario 1: he sells the team, gets a big capital gains tax on the sale. Pays long-term capital gains taxes. Later on dies, his family needs to pay estate taxes on his fortune, essentially getting double taxed. Scenario 2: he keeps the team. Later on dies. Family needs to pay estate taxes on the value of the team. Family sells team to pay the taxes. However, by selling the team after he dies they get a step-up basis on the value of the team and avoid capital gains taxes.   reddit

 

Let's say $500 million plus capital gains tax (his 25% share of the $2 billion payout expected)...this would basically be reset to $2 billion upon death for his kids as the beginning price versus the $19 million from 1981 or whatever it originally was.

His kids actually might end up with NEGATIVE tax liability as it's EASY to see the value for the White Sox declining in the next 5-10 years from $2.1-2.2 billion to to a figure closer to $1.8-1.9 billion (diminishing media and attendance revenues, parking, etc.)

 

No matter what accounts he has, the long term capital gains tax would amount to either $75 million or $100 million...about one Benitendi or Grandal contract, lol.

 

We keep talking about capital gains taxes, but not the estate/wealth tax on the total value of portfolio, including the White Sox/Bulls/UC, etc.

So there's a double tax issue to consider as well.

 

Edited November 13 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

How much of the Bulls does Jerry Reinsdorf own?

 

 

He still owns an estimated 19% stake. He and investors bought a controlling stake in the NBA's Chicago Bulls for $9.2 million in 1985, one year after the team drafted Michael Jordan. Six championships and 33 years later, the Bulls are worth $3 billion net of debt (as of 2018); Reinsdorf still owns an estimated 40%.

 

JR's Total Net Worth is reportedly $3 billion, so the total estate tax on that would be 40%...$1.2 billion chopped off.

 

No way in hell JR is going to lose that much if he can help it.

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/teams/chicago-bulls/

$5 billion current valuation, so JR's stake in the Bulls is at least $2 billion...not sure how the United Center is figured into that.

Edited November 13 by caulfield12

[WhiteSox2023]

Passan has a new ESPN Insider article in which he says that Crochet is “almost certain” to be traded.  I don’t have Insider but here is a brief recap…

 

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports Garrett Crochet is “almost certain” to be traded this offseason.

Crochet is the most appealing trade target for any franchise looking to significantly upgrade their starting rotation mix and the White Sox are looking to capitalize with his trade value seemingly at an absolute apex. The 25-year-old southpaw, who has two years left before reaching free agency, finished last year’s breakthrough campaign with a strong 3.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 209/33 K/BB ratio across 146 innings (32 starts). He’ll command an astronomical prospect haul, but there should be several organizations willing to meet Chicago’s asking price.

Source:  ESPN.com

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Passan has a new ESPN Insider article in which he says that Crochet is “almost certain” to be traded.  I don’t have Insider but here is a brief recap…

 

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports Garrett Crochet is “almost certain” to be traded this offseason.

Crochet is the most appealing trade target for any franchise looking to significantly upgrade their starting rotation mix and the White Sox are looking to capitalize with his trade value seemingly at an absolute apex. The 25-year-old southpaw, who has two years left before reaching free agency, finished last year’s breakthrough campaign with a strong 3.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 209/33 K/BB ratio across 146 innings (32 starts). He’ll command an astronomical prospect haul, but there should be several organizations willing to meet Chicago’s asking price.

Source:  ESPN.com

Looks up the Top 50-100 prospect lists from 2022-23/24.

[WhiteSox2023]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Looks up the Top 50-100 prospect lists from 2022-23/24.

At least Miguel Vargas is off the board this time.

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Looks up the Top 50-100 prospect lists from 2022-23/24.

This is my argument from earlier.  Let's say we get in time machine and make a trade with 2022 Tigers.  We get #4 overall prospect Spencer Torkelson (career -0.3 WAR), #40 overall Jackson Jobe (Career WAR 0.1) and solve our long-term catching problem with Tigers #4 prospect Dillon Dingler (Career WAR -0.3) plus a flyer pick.  That's a top 5 a top 50, PLUS Tigers 4th best prospect plus some A ball player we think has real upside???  If we got that package we would have been over the moon.  If we get that from some team, in this era of teams not trading top position players, we would be hugging ourselves.  The problem is prospects are all risky until they're not.  Certainly, SSS but Jackson Holiday with about the same number of at bats as James McCann put up 1/8 of the WAR.   Coby Mayo struck out in half his at bats in 17 games.  Untouchable.  Our 25-year-old ace who's succeeded in the majors...MUST be traded.  Sigh 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

This is my argument from earlier.  Let's say we get in time machine and make a trade with 2022 Tigers.  We get #4 overall prospect Spencer Torkelson (career -0.3 WAR), #40 overall Jackson Jobe (Career WAR 0.1) and solve our long-term catching problem with Tigers #4 prospect Dillon Dingler (Career WAR -0.3) plus a flyer pick.  That's a top 5 a top 50, PLUS Tigers 4th best prospect plus some A ball player we think has real upside???  If we got that package we would have been over the moon.  If we get that from some team, in this era of teams not trading top position players, we would be hugging ourselves.  The problem is prospects are all risky until they're not.  Certainly, SSS but Jackson Holiday with about the same number of at bats as James McCann put up 1/8 of the WAR.   Coby Mayo struck out in half his at bats in 17 games.  Untouchable.  Our 25-year-old ace who's succeeded in the majors...MUST be traded.  Sigh 

Fwiw, Jobe could STILL be a monster.

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Fwiw, Jobe could STILL be a monster.

Yes as could Grant Taylor.  The point is you are trading a fairly sure thing for three maybes. Sorry I'm broken...2021 we had Moncada-26, Vaughn-23, Robert-23, Zack Collins-26, Eloy-24, Madrigal 24, Kopech-25.  1st round picks, top 100's recently, all in the bigs contributing to a playoff team.   All Star core in my mind at 1b, 2b, 3b, LF, RF, C, Ace and then...bust, bust, bust, bust, bust, bust, bust.  Prospects are so often fool's gold.   

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yes as could Grant Taylor.  The point is you are trading a fairly sure thing for three maybes. Sorry I'm broken...2021 we had Moncada-26, Vaughn-23, Robert-23, Zack Collins-26, Eloy-24, Madrigal 24, Kopech-25.  1st round picks, top 100's recently, all in the bigs contributing to a playoff team.   All Star core in my mind at 1b, 2b, 3b, LF, RF, C, Ace and then...bust, bust, bust, bust, bust, bust, bust.  Prospects are so often fool's gold.   

Then you better be on par with Milwaukee TB and Cleveland on the development side.  Dodgers, obviously.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

This is my argument from earlier.  Let's say we get in time machine and make a trade with 2022 Tigers.  We get #4 overall prospect Spencer Torkelson (career -0.3 WAR), #40 overall Jackson Jobe (Career WAR 0.1) and solve our long-term catching problem with Tigers #4 prospect Dillon Dingler (Career WAR -0.3) plus a flyer pick.  That's a top 5 a top 50, PLUS Tigers 4th best prospect plus some A ball player we think has real upside???  If we got that package we would have been over the moon.  If we get that from some team, in this era of teams not trading top position players, we would be hugging ourselves.  The problem is prospects are all risky until they're not.  Certainly, SSS but Jackson Holiday with about the same number of at bats as James McCann put up 1/8 of the WAR.   Coby Mayo struck out in half his at bats in 17 games.  Untouchable.  Our 25-year-old ace who's succeeded in the majors...MUST be traded.  Sigh 

We were the worst team in major league history with an all time bad offense and little to no high-end positional prospects in the farm.  Trying to build a team around Crochet is an exercise in futility when you won’t have the pieces to compliment him anytime soon and will require a large contract extension that Jerry won’t to agree to anyways.  He must be traded this offseason because his value to someone else trying to win these next two years is worth more than it is to us and someone will swap the appropriate future value accordingly.

Like what is your plan if you keep Crochet?  What does that roadmap look like?

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yes as could Grant Taylor.  The point is you are trading a fairly sure thing for three maybes. Sorry I'm broken...2021 we had Moncada-26, Vaughn-23, Robert-23, Zack Collins-26, Eloy-24, Madrigal 24, Kopech-25.  1st round picks, top 100's recently, all in the bigs contributing to a playoff team.   All Star core in my mind at 1b, 2b, 3b, LF, RF, C, Ace and then...bust, bust, bust, bust, bust, bust, bust.  Prospects are so often fool's gold.   

But the prospects we have in place today will eventually be enough to turn a 121 loss team into a 86+ win team by 2026?

[michelangelosmonkey]

26 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We were the worst team in major league history with an all time bad offense and little to no high-end positional prospects in the farm.  Trying to build a team around Crochet is an exercise in futility when you won’t have the pieces to compliment him anytime soon and will require a large contract extension that Jerry won’t to agree to anyways.  He must be traded this offseason because his value to someone else trying to win these next two years is worth more than it is to us and someone will swap the appropriate future value accordingly.

Like what is your plan if you keep Crochet?  What does that roadmap look like?

 He's 25!   He has two full years of control and for half a season, his first real season as a starter, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball.  He's 3 years from TJ surgery, low miles on his arm and seems to have an easy repeatable delivery.   By many accounts we have the best two left-handed pitchers in the minors.  I think in our quest for a "super team" we miss how easy it can be to get to the playoffs with Skubal and Tyler Greene and a bunch of replacement level guys or Bobby Witt JR and four good starters.   So my plan is 2026 Crochet, Schultz, Smith, Thorpe and Eider.  Robert gets his career back on track, Quero, Montgomery, Ramos, Sosa, Vaughn, $100 million free agent RF, Benni.  Bullpen from all the good young arms. Good new manager.  I think you can win with that team, and I think if you get to the playoffs and Crochet is Randy Johnson...nothing is out of reach.     

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

 He's 25!   He has two full years of control and for half a season, his first real season as a starter, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball.  He's 3 years from TJ surgery, low miles on his arm and seems to have an easy repeatable delivery.   By many accounts we have the best two left-handed pitchers in the minors.  I think in our quest for a "super team" we miss how easy it can be to get to the playoffs with Skubal and Tyler Greene and a bunch of replacement level guys or Bobby Witt JR and four good starters.   So my plan is 2026 Crochet, Schultz, Smith, Thorpe and Eider.  Robert gets his career back on track, Quero, Montgomery, Ramos, Sosa, Vaughn, $100 million free agent RF, Benni.  Bullpen from all the good young arms. Good new manager.  I think you can win with that team, and I think if you get to the playoffs and Crochet is Randy Johnson...nothing is out of reach.     

Riley Greene…but we don’t even have anything close to 2024 Salvy Perez and Pasquantino production-wise.

Plug Teoscar Hernandez into the equation and still not close to a 100 loss team.

You’re assuming ROY candidacies from Smith and Schultz, Cy Young from Crochet…but Eder and Thorpe???

I think Burke, Cannon and Martin would be much higher in the pecking order.  Eder will be in a pen role undoubtedly and we don’t know much of anything about Thorpe’s health.

[michelangelosmonkey]

53 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But the prospects we have in place today will eventually be enough to turn a 121 loss team into a 86+ win team by 2026?

Yes?  Why do we hate our prospects and love everyone other teams?  Fan Graphs had Ramos as the 60th best prospect in baseball at the updated 2024 chart...and we write him off because in half as many MLB at bats as Jackson Holliday he performed about as well?    They had Montgomery and Quero at 16 and 40.  Sosa put up a .930 OPS in Birmingham and .840 in Charlotte about what Marcus Semien did for us at about the same age....and he was never considered much of a prospect until he became a star.  And honestly...2024 White Sox were an apocalyptic wasteland.   Roberts, after a 5 WAR 2023 got in a funk and one can imagine the depression of going to work.  Positive new coach, new hitting approach and a bit of luck...we all thought 7 WAR seasons would be his average.  

The bullpen had ten pitchers that contributed -7 war.  9 players contributing -9 War and a manager that lost the team.  Merely replacing the garbage with 16 guys contributing 1 WAR and you have a 32 game improvement.  One cannot overstate how bad the bad was last year.   

[T R U]

6 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

This is my argument from earlier.  Let's say we get in time machine and make a trade with 2022 Tigers.  We get #4 overall prospect Spencer Torkelson (career -0.3 WAR), #40 overall Jackson Jobe (Career WAR 0.1) and solve our long-term catching problem with Tigers #4 prospect Dillon Dingler (Career WAR -0.3) plus a flyer pick.  That's a top 5 a top 50, PLUS Tigers 4th best prospect plus some A ball player we think has real upside???  If we got that package we would have been over the moon.  If we get that from some team, in this era of teams not trading top position players, we would be hugging ourselves.  The problem is prospects are all risky until they're not.  Certainly, SSS but Jackson Holiday with about the same number of at bats as James McCann put up 1/8 of the WAR.   Coby Mayo struck out in half his at bats in 17 games.  Untouchable.  Our 25-year-old ace who's succeeded in the majors...MUST be traded.  Sigh 

There is so much more that goes into this other than just trading Crochet for prospects. Obviously, in a perfect world you never trade Crochet because he is worth way more than 3 prospects who you have no idea how they will turn out. Crochet just proved that he can stay healthy and pitch at a very high level. 

The problem is, the White Sox will never meet the price that will be required to sign him to an extension. So you are left with the options of trading him now when his value will never be higher, or you can go ahead and let him pitch the next two seasons for a losing team and watch him walk away for a middling comp pick.

It seems not only an easy choice, but logical, to trade him this offseason. And this is solely because the White Sox don't want to pay for top end starting pitchers. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

25 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Riley Greene…but we don’t even have anything close to 2024 Salvy Perez and Pasquantino production-wise.

Plug Teoscar Hernandez into the equation and still not close to a 100 loss team.

You’re assuming ROY candidacies from Smith and Schultz, Cy Young from Crochet…but Eder and Thorpe???

I think Burke, Cannon and Martin would be much higher in the pecking order.  Eder will be in a pen role undoubtedly and we don’t know much of anything about Thorpe’s health.

I'm talking about 2026.  No matter how you slice it 2025 seems a rebuilding season.  But I think by mid season you could have Hagen Smith and Schultz pitching in the majors.   Quero as your everyday C.  Montgomery as your everyday shortstop.  Ramos as your everyday 3b.  Sosa everyday 2b.  That could be a really fun young team to follow.

I'm not writing off Thorpe...His first 7 starts he had 3 wins and a 3.0 ERA for a terrible team.  He was untouchable in the minors.  Having a right-handed control pitcher surrounded by 3 lefty flame throwers seems perfect.  And yes, Cannon, Martin, Burke, Adams, Taylor, Iriarte, Eder...lots of good young arms...even if you want to throw Thorpe in this mix...that's 8 guys for your 4th and 5th starters.  

   

[michelangelosmonkey]

7 minutes ago, T R U said:

There is so much more that goes into this other than just trading Crochet for prospects. Obviously, in a perfect world you never trade Crochet because he is worth way more than 3 prospects who you have no idea how they will turn out. Crochet just proved that he can stay healthy and pitch at a very high level. 

The problem is, the White Sox will never meet the price that will be required to sign him to an extension. So you are left with the options of trading him now when his value will never be higher, or you can go ahead and let him pitch the next two seasons for a losing team and watch him walk away for a middling comp pick.

It seems not only an easy choice, but logical, to trade him this offseason. And this is solely because the White Sox don't want to pay for top end starting pitchers. 

I know that is the narrative here...but they signed Liam 3/$54.  Lance Lynn 2/$36.  Both old guys.   Jon Danks 5/$65 a dozen years ago.  They offered Wheeler 5/$120.   Plus their payroll right now is at near $0.   To say it is impossible...with a new GM?  We don't know.  

[Bob Sacamano]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But the prospects we have in place today will eventually be enough to turn a 121 loss team into a 86+ win team by 2026?

Not a chance in hell.

[T R U]

40 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I know that is the narrative here...but they signed Liam 3/$54.  Lance Lynn 2/$36.  Both old guys.   Jon Danks 5/$65 a dozen years ago.  They offered Wheeler 5/$120.   Plus their payroll right now is at near $0.   To say it is impossible...with a new GM?  We don't know.  

Its not the GM that's the problem, its the owner.