Potential Crochet Trade discussion Thread

[Kyyle23]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yes?  Why do we hate our prospects and love everyone other teams?  Fan Graphs had Ramos as the 60th best prospect in baseball at the updated 2024 chart...and we write him off because in half as many MLB at bats as Jackson Holliday he performed about as well?    They had Montgomery and Quero at 16 and 40.  Sosa put up a .930 OPS in Birmingham and .840 in Charlotte about what Marcus Semien did for us at about the same age....and he was never considered much of a prospect until he became a star.  And honestly...2024 White Sox were an apocalyptic wasteland.   Roberts, after a 5 WAR 2023 got in a funk and one can imagine the depression of going to work.  Positive new coach, new hitting approach and a bit of luck...we all thought 7 WAR seasons would be his average.  

The bullpen had ten pitchers that contributed -7 war.  9 players contributing -9 War and a manager that lost the team.  Merely replacing the garbage with 16 guys contributing 1 WAR and you have a 32 game improvement.  One cannot overstate how bad the bad was last year.   

I wouldn’t say that we hate our prospects as much as we know that the white sox have never invested in development which puts our prospects at a great risk when they hit the majors.  
 

and then we see them hit the majors, and it plays out the same way every time.  Honestly I think they are about to ruin Montgomery by rushing him up to the majors.  Time will tell, but he didn’t make me think he was knocking at the door last season 

[southsider2k5]

57 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm talking about 2026.  No matter how you slice it 2025 seems a rebuilding season.  But I think by mid season you could have Hagen Smith and Schultz pitching in the majors.   Quero as your everyday C.  Montgomery as your everyday shortstop.  Ramos as your everyday 3b.  Sosa everyday 2b.  That could be a really fun young team to follow.

I'm not writing off Thorpe...His first 7 starts he had 3 wins and a 3.0 ERA for a terrible team.  He was untouchable in the minors.  Having a right-handed control pitcher surrounded by 3 lefty flame throwers seems perfect.  And yes, Cannon, Martin, Burke, Adams, Taylor, Iriarte, Eder...lots of good young arms...even if you want to throw Thorpe in this mix...that's 8 guys for your 4th and 5th starters.  

   

You aren’t going from 50 wins in 2025 to competitive in 26 with that roster.  Even if the fantasy of all of that pitching works, this is still one of the worst offenses in baseball,  and as a bonus you just lost Crochet for nothing as Jerry was too cheap to make Garrett a qualifying offer.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

You aren’t going from 50 wins in 2025 to competitive in 26 with that roster.  Even if the fantasy of all of that pitching works, this is still one of the worst offenses in baseball,  and as a bonus you just lost Crochet for nothing as Jerry was too cheap to make Garrett a qualifying offer.

Yeah and trading Crochet, your best pitcher in a season where you loss 120+ games, makes you closer to that 120+ loss team than 86 win team.

[ChiSox59]

Trading Crochet is such a no brainer.  I cannot for the life of me understand how anyone that understands (a) where the Sox currently stand; (b) how the white sox historically have operated; (c) the dearth of high end positional talent; and (d) Crochet's general risk profile, current value and contractual status; can possibly believe that retaining Crochet is in the organization's best interest. 

Edited November 13 by ChiSox59

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Trading Crochet is such a no brainer.  I cannot for the life of me understand how anyone that understands (a) where the Sox currently stand; (b) how the white sox historically have operated; (c) the dearth of high end positional talent; and (d) Crochet's general risk profile; can possibly believe that retaining Crochet is in the organization's best interest. 

because some of us don't recommend dumb ass moves just because our owner is a cheap ass.

No where does it say that my strategy/process should change because our ownership doesn't know how to run a business. If you want to change how you approach process because of poor leadership, so be it, but I certainly am not going to change what I view as optimal just because Jerry sucks.

This would be a lot like making horrible trade proposals in our trade proposal threads just because our GM sucks and can't evaluate talent... no one would do that because no one says, well "I'll just take less because our GM is dumb."

Edited November 13 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[southsider2k5]

24 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

because some of us don't recommend dumb ass moves just because our owner is a cheap ass.

No where does it say that my strategy/process should change because our ownership doesn't know how to run a business. If you want to change how you approach process because of poor leadership, so be it, but I certainly am not going to change what I view as optimal just because Jerry sucks.

This would be a lot like making horrible trade proposals in our trade proposal threads just because our GM sucks and can't evaluate talent... no one would do that because no one says, well "I'll just take less because our GM is dumb."

Or you could just do both.  Trade him for the return you so badly need in position players/prospects AND then go and try and sign him in free agency. But again, we know those odds as well.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

 He's 25!   He has two full years of control and for half a season, his first real season as a starter, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball.  He's 3 years from TJ surgery, low miles on his arm and seems to have an easy repeatable delivery.   By many accounts we have the best two left-handed pitchers in the minors.  I think in our quest for a "super team" we miss how easy it can be to get to the playoffs with Skubal and Tyler Greene and a bunch of replacement level guys or Bobby Witt JR and four good starters.   So my plan is 2026 Crochet, Schultz, Smith, Thorpe and Eider.  Robert gets his career back on track, Quero, Montgomery, Ramos, Sosa, Vaughn, $100 million free agent RF, Benni.  Bullpen from all the good young arms. Good new manager.  I think you can win with that team, and I think if you get to the playoffs and Crochet is Randy Johnson...nothing is out of reach.     

No offense, but that team isn’t 45 wins better than this year’s squad.  And then Crochet is gone the following season.  Your plan doesn’t work and sets us up for sustained mediocrity IMO.

We need to cash in on Crochet and get two positional prospects that be everyday guys, one with a fairly high offensive ceiling.  Until then, there simply isn’t a mass of offensive talent to think we can fill six spots or so internally.  You just said prospects flop at very high rates and then just assumed we’ll be able to fill a lineup with the subpar group we have in place.  It’s all a huge stretch.

I am less concerned on pitching side.  Crochet it will challenging to replace, but we do have two shots in Schultz & Smith.  Taylor also has a very high ceiling.  I strongly believe Thorpe will be a very useful mid rotation starter.  Cannon looks like a solid innings eater type.  And unlike on the positional side, there is a lot of pitching depth in the minors.  I’m much more confident in Bannister building a playoff caliber rotation in the next two years without Crochet than us lucking into a competent offense without trading him.

[southsider2k5]

31 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No offense, but that team isn’t 45 wins better than this year’s squad.  And then Crochet is gone the following season.  Your plan doesn’t work and sets us up for sustained mediocrity IMO.

We need to cash in on Crochet and get two positional prospects that be everyday guys, one with a fairly high offensive ceiling.  Until then, there simply isn’t a mass of offensive talent to think we can fill six spots or so internally.  You just said prospects flop at very high rates and then just assumed we’ll be able to fill a lineup with the subpar group we have in place.  It’s all a huge stretch.

I am less concerned on pitching side.  Crochet it will challenging to replace, but we do have two shots in Schultz & Smith.  Taylor also has a very high ceiling.  I strongly believe Thorpe will be a very useful mid rotation starter.  Cannon looks like a solid innings eater type.  And unlike on the positional side, there is a lot of pitching depth in the minors.  I’m much more confident in Bannister building a playoff caliber rotation in the next two years without Crochet than us lucking into a competent offense without trading him.

Plus let's be fully honest here, the Royals made the playoffs because they went and beat the s%*# out of the White Sox all season long.  If they played 13 games against the ALE or ALW, they 100% miss the playoffs because they don't have those gimmies.

[Snopek]

4 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

 He's 25!   He has two full years of control and for half a season, his first real season as a starter, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball.  He's 3 years from TJ surgery, low miles on his arm and seems to have an easy repeatable delivery.   By many accounts we have the best two left-handed pitchers in the minors.  I think in our quest for a "super team" we miss how easy it can be to get to the playoffs with Skubal and Tyler Greene and a bunch of replacement level guys or Bobby Witt JR and four good starters.   So my plan is 2026 Crochet, Schultz, Smith, Thorpe and Eider.  Robert gets his career back on track, Quero, Montgomery, Ramos, Sosa, Vaughn, $100 million free agent RF, Benni.  Bullpen from all the good young arms. Good new manager.  I think you can win with that team, and I think if you get to the playoffs and Crochet is Randy Johnson...nothing is out of reach.     

Two things about the bolded:

1. I think you're overlooking how easy it can be to miss the playoffs with Skubal and Tyler Greene and a bunch of replacement level guys. That's not really a recipe for success. Especially if you don't have a historically bad team in your division to help pad your record.
2. Who is the Bobby Witt Jr equivalent for the Sox in this scenario? You know, the perennial MVP candidate and consensus top 5 player in the game type guy who is also still a few years away from entering his prime. 

Edit: I just realized by Tyler Greene, you probably meant Riley Greene. Point still stands.

Edited November 13 by Snopek

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

because some of us don't recommend dumb ass moves just because our owner is a cheap ass.

No where does it say that my strategy/process should change because our ownership doesn't know how to run a business. If you want to change how you approach process because of poor leadership, so be it, but I certainly am not going to change what I view as optimal just because Jerry sucks.

This would be a lot like making horrible trade proposals in our trade proposal threads just because our GM sucks and can't evaluate talent... no one would do that because no one says, well "I'll just take less because our GM is dumb."

Hmmm.  You're on quite a tear lately.  You're a smart guy, so I am not telling you anything you don't know, but...

I personally wouldn't extend Crochet.  To me, he feels like a huge injury risk.  There are so few miles on his arm, his injury history, lack of history starting, pitching motion, etc.  In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he didn't even make it to FA without a major injury.  Handing him a long term deal at $20-25M would insanely risky for a team that doesn't hand out big contracts.  Imagine the meltdown if the Sox hold him this offsaeason and his arm blows up in June.  I am sure you'll suddenly be campaigning that it was idiotic to keep him.

You have to look at his limited control, how bad the team projects to be in thsoe two years even with him, the fact that he is the last bullet of big time trade value left, and the Sox badly needing more talent.  He's gootta go.  And those things aren't really affected by the fact that JR is POS (which we can certainly agree on). 

[GGajewski18]

Sox are trading Crochet.  The question just is to who?

I'm very intrigued by Philly highlighting a Painter, Cara + package

 

[GGajewski18]

Sox are trading Crochet.  The question just is to who?

I'm very intrigued by Philly highlighting a Painter, Caba + package

 

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Sox are trading Crochet.  The question just is to who?

I'm very intrigued by Philly highlighting a Painter, Caba + package

 

was this in that espn article today? I couldn't get to the actual teams.

[PaleAleSox]

36 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Sox are trading Crochet.  The question just is to who?

I'm very intrigued by Philly highlighting a Painter, Caba + package

 

A pitcher as the main piece would be a disaster of a trade. 

[GGajewski18]

Not exactly, but they did mention that Sox would consider a pitcher as a headliner for a Crochet trade if the depth of the trade made sense with the offensive prospects.  Painter would certainly fit that bill. 

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

49 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Sox are trading Crochet.  The question just is to who?

I'm very intrigued by Philly highlighting a Painter, Caba + package

 

I would love a deal like that. I think Painter is going to be great and he’s still so young.

[steveno89]

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Trading Crochet is such a no brainer.  I cannot for the life of me understand how anyone that understands (a) where the Sox currently stand; (b) how the white sox historically have operated; (c) the dearth of high end positional talent; and (d) Crochet's general risk profile, current value and contractual status; can possibly believe that retaining Crochet is in the organization's best interest. 

I totally agree with this^

It is in the Sox best interest to trade Crochet to the highest bidder this offseason 

There is argably more risk in exploring an extension than potential reward two seasons away from free agency, and the club badly needs position player prospects with ceiling

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yes?  Why do we hate our prospects and love everyone other teams?  Fan Graphs had Ramos as the 60th best prospect in baseball at the updated 2024 chart...and we write him off because in half as many MLB at bats as Jackson Holliday he performed about as well?    They had Montgomery and Quero at 16 and 40.  Sosa put up a .930 OPS in Birmingham and .840 in Charlotte about what Marcus Semien did for us at about the same age....and he was never considered much of a prospect until he became a star.  And honestly...2024 White Sox were an apocalyptic wasteland.   Roberts, after a 5 WAR 2023 got in a funk and one can imagine the depression of going to work.  Positive new coach, new hitting approach and a bit of luck...we all thought 7 WAR seasons would be his average.  

The bullpen had ten pitchers that contributed -7 war.  9 players contributing -9 War and a manager that lost the team.  Merely replacing the garbage with 16 guys contributing 1 WAR and you have a 32 game improvement.  One cannot overstate how bad the bad was last year.   

Let’s not compare Lenys Sosa to Marcus Semien.  I don’t care about their prospect rankings, but Semien had incredible offensive splits (with elite patience) that wasn’t properly valued at the time.  The other prospects you mention I do like but they all have warts and fall into the “far from sure things” camp.  They will not be enough to build a competent lineup anytime soon and none of them really have star ceiling outside of maybe Colson (huge maybe).

And where do you see 16 1 fWAR guys laying around?  Yes, the team was bad last year and maybe they can quickly gain 20 games due to low hanging fruit, but they’d still be a ~60 win team and likely the worst in baseball.  You don’t seem to be grasping how far we have to come to right the ship.  It’s going to take serious time to become legit playoff contenders again and Crochet simply doesn’t fit the timeline.  Wish he did because he’s an incredible talent, but this is the reality of a Jerry Reinsdorf lead org.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I know that is the narrative here...but they signed Liam 3/$54.  Lance Lynn 2/$36.  Both old guys.   Jon Danks 5/$65 a dozen years ago.  They offered Wheeler 5/$120.   Plus their payroll right now is at near $0.   To say it is impossible...with a new GM?  We don't know.  

The new GM element doesn’t matter unless it’s paired with a new owner.  You can continue closing your eyes and plugging your ears, but Jerry is never going to give a massive contract to a pitcher.  The fact that Rick was able to convince Jerry to offer Wheeler $125M is a miracle and is almost certainly the ceiling of what Reinsdorf would be willing to do.  Will Jerry be willing to commit to that type of deal right now when we’re multiple years away from competing?  And is that a big enough deal for Crochet to say yes to?

[steveno89]

7 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I totally agree with this^

It is in the Sox best interest to trade Crochet to the highest bidder this offseason 

There is argably more risk in exploring an extension than potential reward two seasons away from free agency, and the club badly needs position player prospects with ceiling

I really like the Phillies as a trade fit, and it has been suggested they were close to trading for him at the deadline but refused to include Andrew Painter in the package. 

I still think a compelling package could get done with some combination of their prospects

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Or you could just do both.  Trade him for the return you so badly need in position players/prospects AND then go and try and sign him in free agency. But again, we know those odds as well.

While it happens occasionally, it definitely gets more and more rare as you go up the totem pole of value. It sounds like Crochet will likely be locked up by whoever trades for him, so it's very unlikely he hits market.

I'm so sick and tired of trading every elite talent we have. It is exhausting. It rarely ever works - we got Alexander Albertus for Chris Sale.

With each trade we get worse and worse too. We get a lesser and lesser return.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Hmmm.  You're on quite a tear lately.  You're a smart guy, so I am not telling you anything you don't know, but...

I personally wouldn't extend Crochet.  To me, he feels like a huge injury risk.  There are so few miles on his arm, his injury history, lack of history starting, pitching motion, etc.  In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he didn't even make it to FA without a major injury.  Handing him a long term deal at $20-25M would insanely risky for a team that doesn't hand out big contracts.  Imagine the meltdown if the Sox hold him this offsaeason and his arm blows up in June.  I am sure you'll suddenly be campaigning that it was idiotic to keep him.

You have to look at his limited control, how bad the team projects to be in thsoe two years even with him, the fact that he is the last bullet of big time trade value left, and the Sox badly needing more talent.  He's gootta go.  And those things aren't really affected by the fact that JR is POS (which we can certainly agree on). 

Crochet's lack of innings is a good thing, not a bad thing. What % weight are you putting on Garrett Crochet's injury risk compared to any other pitcher - I would guess it's too much based on what you're saying. Crochet's thrown limited innings post opp AND he's changed the way he pitches. Right now, the injury risk for Crochet is a massive unknown and with any form of uncertainty, it's just as likely he reverts to the league average than otherwise. Understanding that from a statistical standpoint, there's no reason not to then approach Crochet as any other available 25 year old arm.

Benefit Crochet has going for him is the limited innings. Similar to the comments I made on this board about Zach Wheeler 5 years ago when he was a FA. Difference was Wheeler had two years post-opp under his belt while Crochet has one AND Wheeler had been a starter in the minors. Crochet was 3rd in baseball in FIP, 1st in xFIP, 8th in WAR, 2nd in WAR/9 (behind Sale lol), 1st in K-rate, 15th in walk rate. He wore down a little bit, but still nearly touched 150 innings. Crochet would be on my list of 3 arms to take over the next 5 years in all of baseball. You want the White Sox to trade him so they can trade down again, just like they did with Sale.

25 million dollars is nothing in MLB. The White Sox  have 66 million committed for next year and under 40 million the year after. Paying Garrett Crochet should have no impact on the team. This is entertainment and they're supposed to be keeping star talent, not always thinking about how they can move on from them.

And sorry, wasn't calling you a dumb ass. Just hate the idea of trading unicorn skill sets. The last one we traded is about to win a Cy Young after already winning a World Series and we got no where near his value returned.

[GGajewski18]

27 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I would love a deal like that. I think Painter is going to be great and he’s still so young.

Yeah, Painter is really only the pitching headliner that I would be ok with. 

Painter, Caba, Escobar and a flier would be awesome

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

54 minutes ago, PaleAleSox said:

A pitcher as the main piece would be a disaster of a trade. 

In most cases yes.. But I also think Painter (and a few others) would be outliers.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

16 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Yeah, Painter is really only the pitching headliner that I would be ok with. 

Painter, Caba, Escobar and a flier would be awesome

That would be an outstanding deal for the Sox. I know most here disagree but I prefer Painter over Miller as the headliner in a Phillies trade.